A collaboration between Israel and India could yield quality birds, is the point he was making I believe.
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Explaining the Long-term Hostility between the United States and Iran
Ph.D. Dissertation
The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University
It is unfortunate that the long-term hostility between Iran and the United States has come to be seen in the oversimplified and narrowly defined terms of Islamic fundamentalism. One ramification of this common ideological construction is the difficulty it causes in answering an important historical question: How do we theoretically explain the long-term hostility between the United States and Iran? This dissertation seeks to explain the enduring animosity between the United States and Iran.
Despite the passing away of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, U.S.-Iranian relations have remained virtually frozen for two decades. In the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution in 1978-79, Iran became in due course the permanent enemy of the United States. The 19th century British foreign secretary and prime minister, Lord Palmerston, famously proclaimed that Great Britain ?has no permanent friends; she has only permanent interests.? Correspondingly, one needs to ask the question why the United States—the most powerful and prosperous nation of the 20th century—as a matter of fact acquired a number of ?permanent enemies.?
Since Ayatollah Khomeini denounced the United States as the "Great Satan" and approved the seizure of the American embassy in Tehran in November 1979, the U.S. has treated the Islamic Republic of Iran as one of the most extreme, irrational, and dangerous governments in the world. President Clinton?s national security advisor, Anthony Lake, characterized Iran as a ?backlash? state and concluded ?[Iran?s] revolutionary and militant messages are openly hostile to the United States and its core interests. This basic political reality will shape relations for the foreseeable future.? The Clinton Administration then called for a policy of ?dual containment? of Iran and Iraq, which culminated in the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act of 1996.
Despite the extremely ideological and hostile rhetoric coming out of Iran, the argument can be made that Iran?s foreign policy since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini has been predominantly pragmatic and above all rooted in realpolitik dictated by economic, demographic, and legitimate security problems. However, two years into the second Clinton Administration, U.S. foreign policy toward Iran was paradoxically more uncompromising than at any time since the Hostage Crisis.
Today, the collision between Iran and the United States is directly linked to Iran?s involvement in international terrorism and Iran?s program for acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, and indirectly connected to parallel armed conflicts in the region. The United States and Iran have come to see several contested military and political issues in an entirely different light. The United States considers Iran?s effort to strengthen its military capability as destabilizing to the region. There is widespread agreement in the United States that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran?s program for acquisition of weapons of mass destruction is of great concern not only to the United States and Israel, but also to countries in Europe. However, Iran is nearly completely surrounded by countries with nuclear, chemical, or bacteriological capabilities. The eight year long war with Iraq taught Iran an extremely costly lesson not to ever fight another war without access to unconventional military capabilities. Moreover, Iran is geographically located within a conventional regional security environment that is extremely unstable. The region has seen three major wars over the last two decades—the Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War, and the never-ending war in Afghanistan—in addition to a nuclear build-up between Pakistan and India. The region has in the same period experienced numerous smaller wars and armed conflicts in places like Tajikistan, Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgia, Chechnya, and ?Kurdistan.? The conflict in southern Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah is particularly illuminating with regard to the United States and Iran?s diametrical perception of the same disputed issues. The United States has branded the Hezbollah a terrorist organization, while Tehran sincerely considers the guerilla to be freedom fighters worthy of military and ideological support. Iran?s persistent resistance to a comprehensive Middle East peace settlement particularly infuriates the United States. In Iran, however, an overwhelming majority of the population are deeply offended by the perception that their country is not allowed, as a sovereign state, to have its rightful opinion about a highly contested area of great emotional concern to Iranians.
Despite the debate of what constitutes a legitimate armed struggle, Iran has nevertheless beyond any reasonable doubt sponsored international terrorism. In 1997, a German court ruled that Iran was directly linked to the killing of Kurdish-Iranian dissidents in a Berlin restaurant. The court concluded that the assassinations were ordered and approved by the Committee for Special Operations whose members included, among others, President Hashemi Rafsanjani, the country?s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran?s foreign minister at the time. Furthermore, Iran is strongly believed to have sponsored the assassination of foreign national associated with publishing Salman Rushdie?s The Satanic Verses. Recently, Iran?s involvement in terrorism seems to have subsided and what remains is mainly targeted against the Mujahedin?e Khalq, which the U.S. State Department itself has put on its list of terrorist organizations. Paradoxically, Iran and the United States have had essentially common interests in Afghanistan, in Yugoslavia, and in the fight against international drug trafficking. Neither of the two countries has even contemplated public acknowledgment that this in fact has been the case.
How do we explain the long-term hostility between the United States and Iran when the tangible sources of conflict do not measure up to the ferocity and longevity of the conflict itself? It is unfortunate that the long-term hostility between Iran and the United States has come to be seen in the oversimplified and narrowly defined terms of Islamic fundamentalism. It is clearly time to demystify the conflict between Iran and the United States. This dissertation investigates a new approach for understanding the enduring animosity between the two nations.
I argue that we must examine the realm of psychological variables at play in both states that have added undue weight to historical events, and only then combine these findings with more conventional theoretical approaches to world politics. The realist paradigm of international relations theory best explains the basics of the conflict, however, the foreign policies of Iran and the United States too often contradict the realist conceptualization of international behavior. I contend that the prolonged conflict between the two states is significantly out of balance with the relatively few substantive sources of conflict between them. In other words, on its own the theoretical assumption of rational interests and pursuit of power by both parties to the conflict does not explain the enduring hostility between Iran and the United States.
Works on U.S.-Iran relations have so far failed to systematically explain the relationship between hard felt emotions, passions, and perceptions among people on both sides of the conflict—pride, dignity, respect, arrogance, insult, humiliation, and fear—and the actual historical events that took place. With particular emphasis on the Islamic Republic of Iran, we need to revisit psycho-anthropological approaches to national behavior. The answer to these questions is to be found in Iran?s national history.
Each period in Iran?s long and often troubled history has been characterized by certain overarching themes. These have been transmitted through the intervening ruling dynasties down to today?s governing clergy in Tehran. My major theoretical argument is that these legacies and their internal contradictions to a large extent account for Iran?s erratic state behavior, and consequently they also explain its long-term hostility toward the United States. I propose that Iran?s enduring conflict with the United States stems from seven separate but interrelated themes in Iran?s national history: (1) Monarchial absolutism, (2) Imperial ambitions, (3) Foreign dominance, (4) Permanent external enemies, (5) Religious legitimacy, (6) Internal factionalism and autonomous centers of power, and (7) Entanglement in international power rivalries. This theoretical framework implies strongly that Iran?s conflict with the United States was unavoidable. The United States is just the latest in an endless string of major powers competing with Iran for regional hegemony.
Conflicts that exceed our expectations offer critical opportunities to expand our understanding of violent inter-state conflict in world affairs. The U.S. and Iran?s enduring hostile relationship provides a case which suggests strongly that our understanding of the sources of conflict can be expanded. Through close evaluation of history, international relations, and international relations theory, this dissertation attempts to weave a more expansive understanding of the human experience that informs international conflict into the realist paradigm. Its goal is to use the case of US and Iran as the basis to propose a policy-relevant theory that increases our understanding of unexplained long-term hostility between states.
On a comparative level of analysis, the conflict with the Unites States fits a number of other long-term enemies in American diplomatic history. Iran falls into one particular category of Third World countries, which have vivid historical memories of a great imperial past. The collective trauma of having severe infringement imposed on its sovereignty or having to totally subjugate to the will of foreign powers have noticeably defined the politics of these countries in the post-colonial era. During the second half of the 20th century, most Third World countries were ?neo-colonies? in the sense that they had formal political independence, but for a complex variety of reasons, they found themselves in continued economic and military dependency on their former colonial masters or to a new and powerful patron. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the United States each built up a network of client states. This particular mixture of memories of western imperialism, post-colonial defenselessness, economic dependency, and superpower rivalry was ripe for local corruption and repression. When violent protests against the local authoritarian regime erupted, it was a revolt not only against the native autocracy, kleptocracy or mafiocracy, but also against the global power hierarchy and the international economic order, epitomized by the all-mighty foreign patron, the United States of America.
The ideology of the dominant forces within the ruling clergy Iran stands in the way for a peaceful development of human interaction in the Middle East region and beyond. One of the reasons is that the true nature of the current regime in Tehran remains elusive and poorly understood by outside observers. Iran will continue to challenge core American and European objectives in the future for several important reasons. First, the conservative and authoritarian faction within the Iranian theocracy promotes a system of governance that fundamentally contradicts the core values upon which the modern international system of peaceful coexistence was founded. This is particularly true in the realm of basic human rights, such as the systematic use of torture and executions, freedom of speech, and freedom of religion.
Second, it is clearly in the interest of the United States, Europe and above all the countries in the region to reach a comprehensive peace settlement between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Iran has made no secret of its strong opposition to the U.S.-sponsored Middle East Peace Process. Since the Iranian Revolution in 1978-79, Iran has actively sought to obstruct any accommodation by the Muslim World of the State of Israel, which it perceives as a continuation of the painful legacy of Western imperialism.
Third, Iran is perhaps second only to Russia in the threat it poses to the to the long-term objectives of the NATO alliance. It is therefore not surprising that there have been a warming of ties between these two historical enemies in the 1990s. If NATO wants to continue to be successful in its second fifty years, it must seek to influence and accommodate Tehran. Iran is the only remaining nation with a common border with a NATO member that has explicitly and repeatedly declared its hostile intentions against at least one of the members of the alliance. During the Cold War, Norway and Turkey were the only two members of the alliance with a shared physical border with the Soviet Union. While the commitment to defend the northern NATO flank in North Norway was a symbolic goal rather than a militarily realistic objective against the largest military complex in the world at that time on the Kola Peninsula; yet, it sent a powerful message that the alliance was 100% committed to defending its territory. The most realistic territorial threat against NATO in the future will come from Turkey?s eastern neighbors. With the possible integration of Turkey into the European Union, the Kurdish problem in the east will most likely become a more serious source of instability than in the past since the traditional harsh methods of suppression will not be available to the central Turkish government.
Fourth, the ongoing dispute over access to scarce water resources — now predominantly controlled by Turkey — will become increasingly contentious as the regional consumption of water is dramatically increased due to extreme high rates of population growth, rapid urbanization, and improved standards of living. Recent research suggests that water scarcity issues by the year 2010 could have an explosive destabilizing effect on the region. Iran has indirectly tremendous leverage over any lasting political settlement over access to scarce water resources. It is clearly in the interest of world peace to reach a comprehensive and lasting accommodation over trans-border water issues in the Middle East involving both the governments in Ankara and in Tehran.
Fifth, Iran is one of the key players in an emerging regional and international nuclear arms race, not so much for its capabilities as for its perceived hostile intentions. Publicly, the United States quoted missile attack from so-called ?rogue states,? such as Iran, Iraq and North Korea, as the justification for developing and deploying a missile defense system. However, many analysts believe that the system is intended to counter the missile threat from China since Iran, Iraq and North Korea?s overall offensive capabilities are disproportionate to the planned U.S. defensive capacity. Moreover, many analysts believe that such a system will have the unintended effect of provoking a large-scale missile build-up. The real question is not whether Iran has the intention or technical will to acquire nuclear weapons or not; it is which strategic variables factor into the Iranian regime?s threat-response and cost-benefit analyses. It has surely not escaped the decision-makers in Tehran that deployment of nuclear missiles will almost certainly trigger a regional and international arms race. If the world intends to prevent a serious build-up of weapons of mass destruction capabilities in this region, it must influence Iran?s ever more rational decision-makers by acknowledging Iran?s legitimate security concerns.
Sixth, the conflict with Iran will in the future test the internal unity of the trans-Atlantic alliance. The United States perceives the conflicts in the Middle East in the context of terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and the flow of oil to the world market. The European Union is increasingly concerned with the influx of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa to Western Europe. Illegal immigration is challenging the core values of all liberal democracies in Europe. Over the last two decades, the far right in nearly every European country has seen a remarkable increase in support by exploiting dark xenophobic undercurrents in the population at large. Newly arrived immigrants in Western Europe have not assimilated over time in the same way as massive immigration has in the United States. European politicians increasingly see illegal immigration as a serious challenge to the social fabric of Europe, and there is building consensus that future immigration must be seriously curtailed. Iran is a vital important player in Europe?s immigration woes. Iran has for many years given shelter to the largest refugee population in the world, and has the power to control several regional conflicts that can create massive refugee problems, which will eventually spill over to Europe. Rather than deal solely at home with the difficult issues surrounding immigration, Europe and the NATO alliance will be forced to deal with political and economic conditions which give rise to immigration at the source. Iran?s partnership in this process will be critical to its success.
Finally, Iran has for a long time been the most effective barrier against drug trafficking from Afghanistan and Pakistan. Iran?s share of global seizure of heroin and morphine trafficking rose from 9% in 1987/88 to 42% in 1997/98. ?In 1999, seizures of heroin more than doubled, and overall heroin/morphine seizures in Iran grew by a quarter over the 1997/98 average, reflecting the massive increase of opium production in neighboring Afghanistan, the increasing use of Iranian territory by drug trafficking organizations, and the priority given by the Iranian authorities to drug interdiction.?1 Governments in most countries in the West now list the threat from international organized crime as a threat to national security. A change in policy within Iran would effectively undermine the effort to stop the flow of narcotics to the markets in Western Europe and the United States. For the above reasons, and due to the fact that differences between U.S. and European approaches to dealing with the Iranian clergy have a potential to weaken the NATO alliance, overcoming long-term hostility between Washington and Tehran is a central component in the United States and Europe?s future.
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