This thread has derailed a bit, and it seems most posters are unaware of the prevailing incompetence of the tiny, amateur Israeli Navy prior to the Seventies. The Navy  was, and still is, an underfunded, understaffed junior branch, and this 1967 war was pretty much its not-really-brilliant baptism of fire, since the 1956 Suez episode can't be counted, with the seasoned British and French navies in charge of the Eastern Med back then. The Liberty incident is certainly regrettable because of the unnecessary and tragic loss of life, but also because of the failure of the IDF to actually sink this ship. Please be reminded that the USA and Israel were not allies at the time, and that Liberty was a third-party spy ship operating in a war zone. The close relationship between the two countries is indeed a result of the Six-Days War's aftermath with the Cold War in the background, when the US administration under Johnson saw the opportunity to side with a country that had just destroyed two Soviet proxy militaries, and then some.

 

I am indebted to Darth for clarifying to all of us the present US administration's willingness to protect and defend the Islamo-nazi regime of Tehran at all costs in order to preserve its own perception of what the Moslem world expects of the new hopenchange US approach, in which the US must grovel to its sworn and declared enemies and purchase their trust and, well, affection (!), while liberally spending its erstwhile allies' blood as a currency to achieve that lofty and oh-so realistic goal. The upside is that such a policy, along with the looming crash of was used to be known as the World's most vibrant economy, will weaken Amrikka to such a point where being a US ally will no longer be attractive, and both the Israeli establishment and the Israeli public are slowly becoming aware of just that.

 

Fortunately for Mankind at large, it seems that the sudden occurence of a pair balls spontaneously sprouting from the Iranian people's collective crotch is bound to somewhat reshuffle the Middle-Eastern deck. Just imagine for a minute, that the Persians succeed in throwing away the yoke of the Religion of the Arabs, and to come into their own. What will probably emerge is a non-Arab, or non-Sunni axis which will include Israel, Persia, Azerbaidjan, Georgia, etc, and a Sunni-Jihadi block which will be led by Saudyia/Egypt, or/and... Turkey. An impoverished and weakened Amrikka is most likely to fade away from the region's politics in any case.

Israel has placed its bet on the Persian option before, and the result was peace and prosperity for quite a long while, at least until the Goyim from the West defeated the Persian Empire and led the way to the Roman era... 

 

In such a context, the problem the IDF/AF face in the next decade is that it no longer owns the bestest A2A platforms in the region, since it will have to face a sizable Saudi force with these spiffy new Typhoons and their long-range Meteor missile, and most likely, the stealthy F35's owned by Turkey, the next protector of Syria after the Iranians desist.

The reason why the air force insists on the integration of domestic avionics and commos in its next-generation fighter is precisely because the outlook is that it will have to face the same model in enemy colors. Such an integration, however, makes the acquisition of the F35 prohibitively expensive for a small country's economy, even considering the very generous, and already-signed by the previous government, US aid package.

While the airforce considers a customized version of the Lightning II its best option, it is not the only one. An additional upgrade (AESA, IRST, EW) of the 30+ years old F15's together with a new weapon which is certainly in the works somewhere in the Haifa area is the first possibility I can think of. Additionally, Israeli companies have presented a roster of new SAMs at the Paris salon last week, and the procurement of some of these systems could also be a partial solution to defend our tiny territory from top-of-the-line fighters.

Shopping somewhere else for a fifth-generation fighter-bomber is presently unlikely, but there should be some thinking about joining gangster-led Russia and India in the PAK-FA project, or, maybe, enticing France to jointly develop a fifth-gen follow-on of the Rafale, both being technologically and financially feasible but politically uncertain. 

 

 

 

The seeds of fifteen years hard work by somebody (not the US) is starting to pay off in Iran. The best thing the interregnumist can do right now is shut his yap up, cross his fingers, and pray that far better men than he will ever be, know what  the hell they are doing. 

 

Its a huge risk playing out before us. A lot of innocent people are going to be hurt or dead, win lose or draw.

 

As to getting technology from and denying technology too.........

 

 

I'd like to see how some of our recent SAM work would be derailed for example.

 

Raytheon... remember?

 

.

Given the protests in Tehran and other Iranian cities over the past week, I think that much of the

preceding analysis will have to be revisited.  To a significant degree, Darth is correct.

 

Kahmeini seem to have lost a lot of legitimacy, and indeed political standing. The Iranian

Revolutionary Guards are now involved in suppressing the rioters, but exactly what they will do is

not clear. There are reports of the mullahs importing Hamas thugs to suppress rioters, and this

doesn't sit well with the Iranian people.   The IRG might supplant the mullahs.

 

If there is a new Iranian regime, and I think it likely, Hamas, Hizballah and any other terrorists will

be cut loose. The probability of Iran attacking Israel decreases. More than a few Iranians have

blogged / Twittered / etc. that, given what the Palestinian thugs are doing in Iran, they?d be happy

to see Israel stomp the Palestinians thoroughly. There is even a chance that the new regime will

accept foreign fuel enrichment, as part of a new Iran seeking to become an accepted member of the

international community.

 

In any event, nuclear development will likely have to be stopped for a while; money previously

allocated to it and missile research will have to be diverted to (depending on who wins) fixing the

economy / paying for more police.

 

Now back to the previously-scheduled F-35 discussion.

 

I?ll evade almost all of the F-35 discussion and point out that the F-35 is still 5 or so years away

from being deployed in quantity. Further, excluding the question of who is allowed to do what to

their F-35s, it makes very much more sense for Israel to simply start buying used F-15s and F-16s,

and completely rebuild them. Boeing has an interesting F-15 development, and there was talk once

of an F-16XL development for India.  Both are very much cheaper than the F-35. Upgrade either

with the very latest electronics; just how much better is the F-35?

 

There is a certain advantage to numbers (recall that the Israelis ran low on tanks and ammo in 1973),

and over the next 10-20 years, the Israelis are more likely to be engaging Sukhois and maybe a few

MiGs, rather than F-35s. There's a lot to be said for the Israelis simply evading the F-35 issue as long

as they can.