This thread has derailed a bit, and it seems most posters are unaware of the prevailing incompetence of the tiny, amateur Israeli Navy prior to the Seventies. The Navy  was, and still is, an underfunded, understaffed junior branch, and this 1967 war was pretty much its not-really-brilliant baptism of fire, since the 1956 Suez episode can't be counted, with the seasoned British and French navies in charge of the Eastern Med back then. The Liberty incident is certainly regrettable because of the unnecessary and tragic loss of life, but also because of the failure of the IDF to actually sink this ship. Please be reminded that the USA and Israel were not allies at the time, and that Liberty was a third-party spy ship operating in a war zone. The close relationship between the two countries is indeed a result of the Six-Days War's aftermath with the Cold War in the background, when the US administration under Johnson saw the opportunity to side with a country that had just destroyed two Soviet proxy militaries, and then some.

 

I am indebted to Darth for clarifying to all of us the present US administration's willingness to protect and defend the Islamo-nazi regime of Tehran at all costs in order to preserve its own perception of what the Moslem world expects of the new hopenchange US approach, in which the US must grovel to its sworn and declared enemies and purchase their trust and, well, affection (!), while liberally spending its erstwhile allies' blood as a currency to achieve that lofty and oh-so realistic goal. The upside is that such a policy, along with the looming crash of was used to be known as the World's most vibrant economy, will weaken Amrikka to such a point where being a US ally will no longer be attractive, and both the Israeli establishment and the Israeli public are slowly becoming aware of just that.

 

Fortunately for Mankind at large, it seems that the sudden occurence of a pair balls spontaneously sprouting from the Iranian people's collective crotch is bound to somewhat reshuffle the Middle-Eastern deck. Just imagine for a minute, that the Persians succeed in throwing away the yoke of the Religion of the Arabs, and to come into their own. What will probably emerge is a non-Arab, or non-Sunni axis which will include Israel, Persia, Azerbaidjan, Georgia, etc, and a Sunni-Jihadi block which will be led by Saudyia/Egypt, or/and... Turkey. An impoverished and weakened Amrikka is most likely to fade away from the region's politics in any case.

Israel has placed its bet on the Persian option before, and the result was peace and prosperity for quite a long while, at least until the Goyim from the West defeated the Persian Empire and led the way to the Roman era... 

 

In such a context, the problem the IDF/AF face in the next decade is that it no longer owns the bestest A2A platforms in the region, since it will have to face a sizable Saudi force with these spiffy new Typhoons and their long-range Meteor missile, and most likely, the stealthy F35's owned by Turkey, the next protector of Syria after the Iranians desist.

The reason why the air force insists on the integration of domestic avionics and commos in its next-generation fighter is precisely because the outlook is that it will have to face the same model in enemy colors. Such an integration, however, makes the acquisition of the F35 prohibitively expensive for a small country's economy, even considering the very generous, and already-signed by the previous government, US aid package.

While the airforce considers a customized version of the Lightning II its best option, it is not the only one. An additional upgrade (AESA, IRST, EW) of the 30+ years old F15's together with a new weapon which is certainly in the works somewhere in the Haifa area is the first possibility I can think of. Additionally, Israeli companies have presented a roster of new SAMs at the Paris salon last week, and the procurement of some of these systems could also be a partial solution to defend our tiny territory from top-of-the-line fighters.

Shopping somewhere else for a fifth-generation fighter-bomber is presently unlikely, but there should be some thinking about joining gangster-led Russia and India in the PAK-FA project, or, maybe, enticing France to jointly develop a fifth-gen follow-on of the Rafale, both being technologically and financially feasible but politically uncertain. 

 

 

 

The seeds of fifteen years hard work by somebody (not the US) is starting to pay off in Iran. The best thing the interregnumist can do right now is shut his yap up, cross his fingers, and pray that far better men than he will ever be, know what  the hell they are doing. 

 

Its a huge risk playing out before us. A lot of innocent people are going to be hurt or dead, win lose or draw.

 

As to getting technology from and denying technology too.........

 

 

I'd like to see how some of our recent SAM work would be derailed for example.

 

Raytheon remember?

 

.

Given the protests in Tehran and other Iranian cities over the past week, I think that much of the

preceding analysis will have to be revisited.  To a significant degree, Darth is correct.

 

Kahmeini seem to have lost a lot of legitimacy, and indeed political standing. The Iranian

Revolutionary Guards are now involved in suppressing the rioters, but exactly what they will do is

not clear. There are reports of the mullahs importing Hamas thugs to suppress rioters, and this

doesn't sit well with the Iranian people.   The IRG might supplant the mullahs.

 

If there is a new Iranian regime, and I think it likely, Hamas, Hizballah and any other terrorists will

be cut loose. The probability of Iran attacking Israel decreases. More than a few Iranians have

blogged / Twittered / etc. that, given what the Palestinian thugs are doing in Iran, they?d be happy

to see Israel stomp the Palestinians thoroughly. There is even a chance that the new regime will

accept foreign fuel enrichment, as part of a new Iran seeking to become an accepted member of the

international community.

 

In any event, nuclear development will likely have to be stopped for a while; money previously

allocated to it and missile research will have to be diverted to (depending on who wins) fixing the

economy / paying for more police.

 

Now back to the previously-scheduled F-35 discussion.

 

I?ll evade almost all of the F-35 discussion and point out that the F-35 is still 5 or so years away

from being deployed in quantity. Further, excluding the question of who is allowed to do what to

their F-35s, it makes very much more sense for Israel to simply start buying used F-15s and F-16s,

and completely rebuild them. Boeing has an interesting F-15 development, and there was talk once

of an F-16XL development for India.  Both are very much cheaper than the F-35. Upgrade either

with the very latest electronics; just how much better is the F-35?

 

There is a certain advantage to numbers (recall that the Israelis ran low on tanks and ammo in 1973),

and over the next 10-20 years, the Israelis are more likely to be engaging Sukhois and maybe a few

MiGs, rather than F-35s. There's a lot to be said for the Israelis simply evading the F-35 issue as long

as they can.

 

-DA 

Darth you need to take a step back from your Obama- Man-Crush...the current regime in Tehran and the US have NO interests in common....unless you believe the imposition of Farsi Theocratic Authoritarian Kleptocracy in a region containing over half the world's proven oil reserves is something you think is in the US' interests.

 

Now sometimes you make good points, and you can't be all bad if you anger Herald...but this last little bit was just a bit over-the-top....

I think you're a bit too quick crediting St. Hussein for the miracle of the awakening of the courageous

Iranian people. There is a possibility that what has happened in the barbarian country next door has had more impact on the Iranians than the antics of the MSM around BHO. The credit for the Iraqis freely electing their government and enjoying freedom of expression belongs to the Bush administration, and Obama actively opposed it.

Would a nucular Iran make the nations in the region sit down and have constructive, bi-lateral  relations instead of hate filled retoric? I know what Ajjissyyrrbb or whatever the Iranian pres said regarding the state of Isreal and holocaust, but does he really have the power? No, it's with the Surpreame Council.

Well, we may hate each other's guts as well as each other's opinions, but friends do that, JFKY.

 

Herald      

 

USAJOE,

Please take a look at the following...

...What I want you to pay attention to is the make and timing of this VERY ADVANCED at the time combat aircraft relative to say...various F-15 exports. When I say the USA and Iran have similar interest, I don't mean to compare the current local politics of either country. Such things change with the wind. I'm speaking from a geopolitical point of view. While a lot has changed in the world and indeed Iran and the USA since 1979, many of the motivations and reasons for the US and Iranian partnership still remain and IF the current governments of both countries could reconcile differences you would be very likely to see a very vigorous reengagement.

I can't stress enough Joe. You have to look beyond RHETORIC on both sides. What is shown on MSM is not how things really are between the USA and Iran. We are already in discussion with them and have been for several years. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH OBAMA other than he is continuing on the last admin's policy which is working. Additionally, his new perspective and different political affiliations give him an added advantage in any negotiations because there are people who cannot at all even hint at negotiating with President Bush in public. This has everything to do with past grievances against other GOP admins to race. Yes, race matters.

If you want to discuss this as the MSM surface propaganda/rhetoric level that both countries use to manipulate public opinion for leverage in negotiation that's fine. However, if you want to get into what's really going on and why it seems that both the USA and Iran are doing things that in public seem completely contrary to rhetoric then that's what I'm explaining. You also need to understand the difference between ra-ra go Israel rhetoric and the truth that THEY ARE DEPENDENT ON THE USA FOR SURVIVAL and sometimes their interest do not line up with our agenda. This means every once and a while you will have public disagreement on issues that to the average Joe don;t make sense. For instance, attacking nuclear sites.

Israel knows full well the limits of such an operation and is using the threat of war TO PRESSURE the USA to act on it's behalf while it deals with Iran. The USA uses its economic and military power to pressure Israel into yielding on issues that affect US-Arab/Persian relations which are also obviously critical to US economic and military interest. This isn't about "friends". It's about interest. You need to understand that.

It is important to remain utterly objective here. It makes a difference to the USA what Israel does. That can affect things like whether or not we export advanced weapons systems. For instance, some of you say, well, if Israel wants to attack Iran, what right do we have to stop it? Well, for one, if they are planning on using that equipment to make war on another country, that can tacitly place some of the blame on us. When bombs start exploding in places that matter to us along with claims of responsibility that list support for Israeli aggression as a justification, it makes a difference.

F-35's would be a dramatic and substantial increase in capability for the IDF/AF. They have the potential to be used in ways current IDF/AF aircraft can't. That has to be accounted for when you have two countries we have interest in beating war drums. None of this is to say we should not export them. But how we do that and controls on proliferation have to be considered. Especially in this case.

-DA 

 

According to Israeli sources, giving up on the upgrades is a drastic cut in both operational capabilities and the air force's ambition to integrate local defense industries products in its next-generation fighter.

 

Buchriz also mentioned the fact that among all the countries expected to purchase this aircraft, Israel is the most likely to ever use it in war along its borders."We do not insist on our own electronics (anymore), nor do we demand the source codes, but we must have the capability to update the system in response to any new emergent threat".