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Subject: Impending collapse of U.S. tactical aviation procurement
Phaid    6/6/2009 1:59:31 PM
The U.S. Air Force announced this week that it will "review" its requirement for 1,763 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters during the comprehensive Quadrennial Defense Review which is now under way. According to Air Force Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz, the number of F-35s "could end up being less," he said, but he expects to have "well over" 1,500 F-35s. This nonetheless reflects a potential reduction of 200 or more F-35s from the Air Force procurement alone.

Meanwhile, the JSF program executive officer (PEO)Marine Corps Brig. Gen. David Heinz, stated in an interview with Aviation Week that funding for the F136 alternate engine must be stopped because there is not enough money in the budget to both fund the engine development and produce the expected number of F-35s. According to Heinz, continuing the F136 procurement would "take 50-80 tails out of the program" at a critical early stage of LRIP production, which would cause the unit price to rise, and cause the program to collapse as international partners pull out. "I worry about taking tails out of the program because it will get so expensive the partners will start to pull back", said Heinz.

Heinz's concerns illustrate just how much of a financial knife's edge the F-35 program is already riding. The F136 development contract was awarded in 2005 and is scheduled to end in 2013. This means the F136 development has annual cost of $300 million. According to these numbers, three hundred million dollars per year is the difference between success and failure of a tactical aviation program that has completed less than 5% of flight testing.

But now, even notwithstanding the F136 engine, the Air Force already looking at reducing F-35 procurement numbers, which again means the unit price will necessarily go up. And the Air Force' potential reductions will be much larger, and have far more of an effect on the unit price, than the ones Heinz is concerned about due to the F136. The fewer airplanes are purchased, the more unit price goes up; the more unit price goes up, the less orders will be placed, resulting in a death spiral. And the ripple effects will be devastating: the Navy was criticized this week in Congressional hearings for buying too few F/A-18s in order to make room in their budget for future F-35 purchases. At the same time, the Air Force, which has put off recapitalizing its fighter fleet for two decades, recently decided to retire 250 tactical aircraft ahead of schedule in order to save money to buy more F-35s.

All of those cuts and procurement reductions are based on current F-35 cost estimates and current F-35 production numbers. As testing and budgets impact the F-35 production rates, and the number of airframes purchased continue to dwindle, it is becoming clear that the services are sacrificing their fighter fleets to fund an airplane that will never be procured in enough numbers to meet their needs.
 
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Bluewings12       6/16/2009 10:44:58 PM
Gentlemen , just try to be in my shoes for a minute , will you ?
How could I stay silent when I read this kind of nonsense (from usajoe 1) :
 
"The Lightning may not have the Raptors A2A capabilities but it is much better than the Rafale, Gripen, SH, or any other 4+ genaration fighter out there, including the Typhoon"
 
??? ---> The star&stripes clown (usajoe) is talking about an aircraft who doesn 't exist yet as such and he dares comparing it with various jets who have been operational for few years for some and for many years for others . Typical nonsense from a stupid fanboy ...
Hey usajoe , the F-35 doesn 't exist yet !
 
Then if it does fly in Ops in 2015-2016 (?) , what will be the other aircraft by then ? Pakfa will probably be up there with some new SUs and Migs , Typhoon will be tranche 4 , Rafale will be F5+ , Gripen NG will also be MkII , even the Chinese could have a discreet or decent LO jet , etc ...
Basicaly , the F-35 is promising to be the biggest "flop" the US air Industry ever made . When I speak to various people here in France , the same question in on every lips : "why they did not make a F-22B instead ???" 
Unsurprisingly , ONE answer is on everybody lips : "they wanted to kill the market but they had it wrong" .
 
If Europe would have followed and trusted Dassault instead to go alone , 500 Rafale F3+ would be operational right now through Europe with nearly a quarter of them onboard UK and French Carriers . I mean right now , mid 2009 .
Then , this would have cost the "so called" F-35 European partners 3 times less money .
I am not saying that the Typhoon is a bad aircraft , I am saying that Europe did not need such program . When Dassault pulled away from the European fighter program , the French Engineers were already 10 years ahead . They knew exactly what to build , they had a perfectly working prototype and the complete know-how .
The British (mostly because of them) and the Germans left and decided to go alone with some clueless partners (Italy , Spain) . The result is showing , waste of money , waste of resources , waste of time = lesser product (and way late) .
 
Then , some clowns are trying to compare a "dirty problem child prototype " (F-35) with latest Super Hornets and Rafales ?
They don 't have a clue .
 
Cheers .
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

usajoe1    Here we go again   6/16/2009 11:33:15 PM
 
Gentlemen , just try to be in my shoes for a minute , will you ?
How could I stay silent when I read this kind of nonsense (from usajoe 1) :
Nonsense LOL!  Every thing you post on the Rafale, and for that matter French tech. is nonsense. Every poster from Herald, to DA, etc... have called you out on it, but you still continue to post absolute nonsense.
 
"The Lightning may not have the Raptors A2A capabilities but it is much better than the Rafale, Gripen, SH, or any other 4+ genaration fighter out there, including the Typhoon"
 
??? ---> The star&stripes clown (usajoe) is talking about an aircraft who doesn 't exist yet as such and he dares comparing it with various jets who have been operational for few years for some and for many years for others . Typical nonsense from a stupid fanboy ...
Hey usajoe , the F-35 doesn 't exist yet !
There you go again, being a tough guy thousands of miles away and calling people names. I'm not going to call you a fan boy, or clown because every thing need said about you has already been said by every body here that has real knowledge on the subject.
 
Then if it does fly in Ops in 2015-2016 (?) , what will be the other aircraft by then ? Pakfa will probably be up there with some new SUs and Migs , Typhoon will be tranche 4 , Rafale will be F5+ , Gripen NG will also be MkII , even the Chinese could have a discreet or decent LO jet , etc ...
Basicaly , the F-35 is promising to be the biggest "flop" the US air Industry ever made . When I speak to various people here in France , the same question in on every lips : "why they did not make a F-22B instead ???" 
Unsurprisingly , ONE answer is on everybody lips : "they wanted to kill the market but they had it wrong" .
I'm confused, are you talking about the Rafale and France? The F-35 is a true 5th genaration bird that is going to be flying for more than 10 air forces and over 3,000 are going to be built. You should worry about the Rafale competing against the Sukhois, Migs, and other European and American 4th genaration fighters that are kicking its behind.
 
If Europe would have followed and trusted Dassault instead to go alone , 500 Rafale F3+ would be operational right now through Europe with nearly a quarter of them onboard UK and French Carriers . I mean right now , mid 2009 .
Then , this would have cost the "so called" F-35 European partners 3 times less money .
I am not saying that the Typhoon is a bad aircraft , I am saying that Europe did not need such program . When Dassault pulled away from the European fighter program , the French Engineers were already 10 years ahead . They knew exactly what to build , they had a perfectly working prototype and the complete know-how .
The British (mostly because of them) and the Germans left and decided to go alone with some clueless partners (Italy , Spain) . The result is showing , waste of money , waste of resources , waste of time = lesser product (and way late) .
 You know why they chose the Typhoon, because it is a better bird, period. Stop your day dreaming and come back to reality. I know it hurts, but like my dad use to tell me, tough luck, get up, dust yourself up and keep your head up. Just because you get your butt kicked does not mean you should cry like a little school girl, you should just admit the truth lift your head up high and say will get them next time. Trust me its better on the soul, you will feal much better.
 
 
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warpig       6/16/2009 11:56:35 PM
Rocky, I admit I'm no F-35 program expert, but from what I've read yes, there are thermal management challenges.  However, for example the one you cited:
 
"The first F-35, aircraft AA-1, is grounded awaiting the repair of nacelle vent fans designed to keep the engine bay cool on the ground. The situation has echoes of the overheating problems that dogged the F-22, but Lockheed says it is unique to AA-1.
"The issues we are dealing with are independent of the thermal management system," says deputy program manager Bobby Williams. "Nothing is on the critical path, but the earlier we get the data the better."
The problem involves repeated failures of the nacelle vent fans that force air through the space between engine and airframe to prevent heat from damaging the structure."
 
...is as I recall, confined only to that first flying prototype, just like the quote itself says, and is already resolved for all the production birds.  There are no program-stoppers known or reasonably suspected that I have heard of so far.
 
 
 
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Herald12345    Warpig answered it but I'll add this.   6/17/2009 12:46:10 AM

Care to SOURCE the idiot who said that? <herald

 

I said it Herald. It was a direct reference to reports that the F35 has heat management issues. You are an idiot for posting about the F35 without having knowledge of those reports and the project's responses to them. If you had bothered to check you would have found that tests were delayed in Texas last summer because of vent and electronics issues brought on by stealth shells and big engines. These frequent rants don't make you appear knowledgeable about any topic you discuss here and your fraking ignorance is only matched by your witless arrogance. That sh*t gets old Herald. You will note from the Aviation Week article that the JSF program director says that thermal management is the greatest challenge in the project. This is because it is a tight shell that can not accomodate the release of heat in the way that other non stealthy platforms can. It is not a show stopper for the development potential of the F35 but it contributes to the cost and sophistication of the F35. The F35 ultimately will be killed by politics not overheated radios.

 

Just once I would love for you to know WTF you are talking about and maybe you could read the thread instead of yelling at a participant who you don't like. If you had bothered to read the thread you would have seen my comments and then you could have asked me directly why my opinion was as stated.

 

Herald, stop being an ass.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky

 

 

 

ht**tp://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/aw081108p2.xml&headline=Component%20Failures%20Impact%20F-35%20Flight%20Testing












Lockheed Martin continues to struggle to gain momentum in flight testing of the Joint Strike Fighter, with the first F-35 again grounded by component failure and while the second aircraft heads toward a hiatus in flying that will last into early next year.

The issues will not affect the overall schedule, says Lockheed, but they are preventing key risks being retired early. These include additional noise tests funded by the Australians at a time when the F-35's environmental impact has become an issue for some international partners.

The first F-35, aircraft AA-1, is grounded awaiting the repair of nacelle vent fans designed to keep the engine bay cool on the ground. The situation has echoes of the overheating problems that dogged the F-22, but Lockheed says it is unique to AA-1.

"The issues we are dealing with are independent of the thermal management system," says deputy program manager Bobby Williams. "Nothing is on the critical path, but the earlier we get the data the better."

The problem involves repeated failures of the nacelle vent fans that force air through the space between engine and airframe to prevent heat from damaging the structure.

While the fan failures may be unrelated, thermal management is the "biggest challenge" in the F-35, says Daniel Kunec, JSF program office director, air system integration. "It is the most limiting feature, and there are still some challenges to be overcome,"





The issues were tunnel duct related, Rocky. Virtually every jet aircraft goes through that sort of heat burden problem. You've been reading Sweetman again? Its why you build a test bird to find those glutches and they are just glitches..
 
(SARCASM)
There was also a thermal skin blister problem brought on by a heat exchanger that was sited at the wrong spot. If you'd been following my "rants", you'd noticed where I posted anb article about the offending unit being moved to the underside of the aircraft where it would be cooled by the slipstream like a competent engineer originally intended.
 
But I suppose you didn't see that?
 
Need to read, what I write, Rocky. The anger isn't all that you will see. In fact its not even a third of what you will see.
 
 
As for the fuel intercooler and  fuel-air heat exchanger-(radiator in plain speak) problem solved. The also mentioned vent fans need redesign and their air flow paths need tweaking. BFD.
 
And that is my French for the day. I wish the Sparky's problems were all that MINOR. 
(SARCASM OFF.)
 
Herald
 
 
 
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

sentinel28a       6/17/2009 2:51:57 AM

Gentlemen , just try to be in my shoes for a minute , will you ?

How could I stay silent when I read this kind of nonsense (from usajoe 1) :

 


"The Lightning may not have the Raptors A2A capabilities but it is much better than the Rafale, Gripen, SH, or any other 4+ genaration fighter out there, including the Typhoon"

 

??? ---> The star&stripes clown (usajoe) is talking about an aircraft who doesn 't exist yet as such and he dares comparing it with various jets who have been operational for few years for some and for many years for others . Typical nonsense from a stupid fanboy ...

Hey usajoe , the F-35 doesn 't exist yet !

 

Then if it does fly in Ops in 2015-2016 (?) , what will be the other aircraft by then ? Pakfa will probably be up there with some new SUs and Migs , Typhoon will be tranche 4 , Rafale will be F5+ , Gripen NG will also be MkII , even the Chinese could have a discreet or decent LO jet , etc ...


Basicaly , the F-35 is promising to be the biggest "flop" the US air Industry ever made . When I speak to various people here in France , the same question in on every lips : "why they did not make a F-22B instead ???" 

Unsurprisingly , ONE answer is on everybody lips : "they wanted to kill the market but they had it wrong" .


 

If Europe would have followed and trusted Dassault instead to go alone , 500 Rafale F3+ would be operational right now through Europe with nearly a quarter of them onboard UK and French Carriers . I mean right now , mid 2009 .


Then , this would have cost the "so called" F-35 European partners 3 times less money .


I am not saying that the Typhoon is a bad aircraft , I am saying that Europe did not need such program . When Dassault pulled away from the European fighter program , the French Engineers were already 10 years ahead . They knew exactly what to build , they had a perfectly working prototype and the complete know-how .


The British (mostly because of them) and the Germans left and decided to go alone with some clueless partners (Italy , Spain) . The result is showing , waste of money , waste of resources , waste of time = lesser product (and way late) .


 

Then , some clowns are trying to compare a "dirty problem child prototype " (F-35) with latest Super Hornets and Rafales ?


They don 't have a clue .

 

Cheers .


 

 

 

 


 

 




BW, this tricolor waving is getting old.  The Typhoon is selling because it has gotten over its bugs and is turning into a fine multirole fighter.  The Rafale is not selling because Dassault rushed it into production before all the bugs were worked out--something you've admitted to yourself.  If the Rafale is so awesome, why did it have to have 30-year old Super Etendards spotting for it?  Given that PGMs have been around since 1972, I would think that Dassault would have thought that, in building a Jaguar/Etendard replacement, that it might be required to drop LGBs on occasion.
I'm quite sure that the Rafale will eventually come around and become every inch the fighter you want it to be.  Its problems are solvable, and the airframe itself is excellent.  But honestly, I think that the reason why the Rafale's had the problems it has had was because Dassault wanted to get into the 4th gen fighter sweepstakes before anyone else and essentially wave their wangs around.  And they screwed it up.
 
Your constant harping on other posters and your constant trumpeting of French superiority tells me you're deeply insecure about your country and your aviation industry.  You shouldn't be.  Both are solid.  Matter of fact, if you want to trade Presidents, I'm okay with that.
 
Quote    Reply

RockyMTNClimber    Warpig reply   6/17/2009 1:56:36 PM




What a silly question! I have lost count of the number of people on these panels who have postulated that the F35 was about to be cut, cut big, and cut fast. We have seen our international "partners" reducing orders or delaying promised financial participation. Others who might want into the program are basing their interest upon the promised price of under a hundred million each (about the cost of the next F22 off of the assembly line). The F35 A/B/C can't provide the promised performance because, gee who knew, the biggest turbo fan engine ever produced is very expensive to engineer and quite persnickety to keep running inside that little cocoon of a fuselage. It has a problem dissipating thermal energy off out of the small airframe without cooking everything in the process. Hint: consistently high heat will wear the airframe out faster than other modern airframe types, so, this plane won't last as long as the legacy aircraft that it is supposed to replace because they are falling apart during 1g flight profiles.



 



Phaid you apparently wrote this piece and may I say it is good (thank you for your sources).



 



Obama and Gates have cut the F22 because of politics. They want the money to (illegally IMV) nationalize the auto, banking, financial, health care, and insurance industries. You simply can't buy F35s and fund all of the Obama Political-Commissars (called Czars for short and we now have 16 of them in the USG) at the same time.



 



To Darth. You have yet to successfully carry your position here based upon fact or history. IMV you have to ignore both to keep a straight face, which I doubt you really do. But a straight face isn't required when communicating upon this medium. Herald is right about this one. So is Phaid, so is Sentinel, so am I. The F35 won't be built in numbers big enough to meet our needs and we will not be able to react to potential threats with overwhelming force required to scare our enemies off of challenging US.



 



Check Six



 



Rocky










I encourage you to re read the post. I never said the F35 could not be built, I said it would not be built. Regarding the thermal issues, I have quoted the project management who stated pretty clearly, and not refering to the prototype issue, that the thermal energy management is the biggest challenge to the F35 (source already provided). The fact remains that if the F35 were built it would cost more than the current F22's rolling off of the assembly line. and they will have a lower level of performance for our trouble.
 
Ultimately my post states the F35 (and the rest of our tactical aircraft industry) will be struck for political reasons.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
Quote    Reply

RockyMTNClimber    Herald reply   6/17/2009 2:01:46 PM
Herald,
 
BlueWings was right. If he had mentioned the facts I mentioned and have been properly sourced in the posts above you would have gone after his ass like a wet diaper. We know this because you already did.
 
Stop being a jerk and get back to the topic of the thread. The tactical aircraft industry is going to be shut down for political reasons and that is bad for US.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

Herald12345    My cpomments were technical at BW and YOU.   6/17/2009 3:18:57 PM
 The cooling jacket air tunnel is not there to cool the jet engine. It was there to keep the airframe temperature down for IR purposes. The jet engine uses plasma convection to control its heat burden.

BW got the two confused, and so did you.
 
So deal.
 
Herald
 
Quote    Reply

RockyMTNClimber    Herald   6/17/2009 6:36:25 PM
Stop flaming threads. Start doing your research before you begin flaming the thread. twit.
 
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