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Subject: Impending collapse of U.S. tactical aviation procurement
Phaid    6/6/2009 1:59:31 PM
The U.S. Air Force announced this week that it will "review" its requirement for 1,763 F-35 Joint Strike Fighters during the comprehensive Quadrennial Defense Review which is now under way. According to Air Force Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz, the number of F-35s "could end up being less," he said, but he expects to have "well over" 1,500 F-35s. This nonetheless reflects a potential reduction of 200 or more F-35s from the Air Force procurement alone.

Meanwhile, the JSF program executive officer (PEO)Marine Corps Brig. Gen. David Heinz, stated in an interview with Aviation Week that funding for the F136 alternate engine must be stopped because there is not enough money in the budget to both fund the engine development and produce the expected number of F-35s. According to Heinz, continuing the F136 procurement would "take 50-80 tails out of the program" at a critical early stage of LRIP production, which would cause the unit price to rise, and cause the program to collapse as international partners pull out. "I worry about taking tails out of the program because it will get so expensive the partners will start to pull back", said Heinz.

Heinz's concerns illustrate just how much of a financial knife's edge the F-35 program is already riding. The F136 development contract was awarded in 2005 and is scheduled to end in 2013. This means the F136 development has annual cost of $300 million. According to these numbers, three hundred million dollars per year is the difference between success and failure of a tactical aviation program that has completed less than 5% of flight testing.

But now, even notwithstanding the F136 engine, the Air Force already looking at reducing F-35 procurement numbers, which again means the unit price will necessarily go up. And the Air Force' potential reductions will be much larger, and have far more of an effect on the unit price, than the ones Heinz is concerned about due to the F136. The fewer airplanes are purchased, the more unit price goes up; the more unit price goes up, the less orders will be placed, resulting in a death spiral. And the ripple effects will be devastating: the Navy was criticized this week in Congressional hearings for buying too few F/A-18s in order to make room in their budget for future F-35 purchases. At the same time, the Air Force, which has put off recapitalizing its fighter fleet for two decades, recently decided to retire 250 tactical aircraft ahead of schedule in order to save money to buy more F-35s.

All of those cuts and procurement reductions are based on current F-35 cost estimates and current F-35 production numbers. As testing and budgets impact the F-35 production rates, and the number of airframes purchased continue to dwindle, it is becoming clear that the services are sacrificing their fighter fleets to fund an airplane that will never be procured in enough numbers to meet their needs.
 
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warpig       6/14/2009 8:24:28 PM

Warpig :

""well, yeah, it probably will have difficulty meeting the requirement.""

 
Well , this is the least you can say , lol !

 
""If it has problems, it will be in reducing its heat signature to the LO levels as required; which levels, by the way, are lower than non-LO fighters like the F-15, Su-30, EF, or Rafale, by definition of being LO""

 
lol !! What a load of BS . Now , you try to compare the IR signature management of Rafale with F-15 (???) , SU-30 (???) , Typhoon (only 2 "??") and F-35 (I give 5 "?????") .

 
Like so many other aircraft- and missile-related topics, you are repetitiously clueless on this one as well.  There was a thread maybe a year or two ago in which we were beating you senseless about something to do with IRSTs, MICA IR, or both.  I know that so far this describes probably a dozen different threads; but in the thread I'm remembering there was an awesome post or two by someone (Leroy?  Phaid?  Someone like them who as always was right on target) that really described some significant details about the F-35s IR signature management and how what was important and what was special about the F-35 was the reduction of hot spots, and how the F-35 manages this in particular by dissipating the heat across the airframe by using the fuel system.  I await the details of any other fighter that does this.
 
 
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Bluewings12       6/14/2009 9:24:30 PM
While Herald is learning stuff on the Net about heat transfer (good to him but it will be of no use regarding the F-35) , my answer will be to Warpig . You said :
""and how the F-35 manages this in particular by dissipating the heat across the airframe by using the fuel system.""
 
The technology DOES NOT WORK . Is that plain enough ? Then , if you would check how the heat transfer devices failed repeatedly you would NOT bring this crap again . The entire cooling system has to be re-designed again but it will not work , whatever the efforts made . The culprit is the aircraft design itself , you should restart from scratch with a twin engine first ...
 
""I await the details of any other fighter that does this.""
 
You will not find any because the technology doesn 't work as I said .
 
Regarding my posts about French opticals , IRSTs and missiles , I stick to what I said and rightly .
 
Cheers .
 
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Herald12345    You !@#$%^&*()_+!   6/14/2009 9:38:00 PM

While Herald is learning stuff on the Net about heat transfer (good to him but it will be of no use regarding the F-35) , my answer will be to Warpig . You said :


""and how the F-35 manages this in particular by dissipating the heat across the airframe by using the fuel system.""

 

The technology DOES NOT WORK . Is that plain enough ? Then , if you would check how the heat transfer devices failed repeatedly you would NOT bring this crap again . The entire cooling system has to be re-designed again but it will not work , whatever the efforts made . The culprit is the aircraft design itself , you should restart from scratch with a twin engine first ...


 


""I await the details of any other fighter that does this.""

 

You will not find any because the technology doesn 't work as I said .

 

Regarding my posts about French opticals , IRSTs and missiles , I stick to what I said and rightly .


 

Cheers .




I've forgotten more about heat dissipation and CPT cooling than you have ever learned about anything.
 
The rules prevent me from addressing you in the gutter language you deserve.
 
How about you trying to describe how you carry heat out of the hot zone of a turbofan so that it doesn't melt the engine combustion pot walls, cretin?
 
This is what I want to read from you, truck driver.
 
Put up or be silent.
 
Herald.

 
 
 
 
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warpig       6/14/2009 9:38:51 PM


""and how the F-35 manages this in particular by dissipating the heat across the airframe by using the fuel system.""


The technology DOES NOT WORK . Is that plain enough ? Then , if you would check how the heat transfer devices failed repeatedly you would NOT bring this crap again . The entire cooling system has to be re-designed again but it will not work , whatever the efforts made . The culprit is the aircraft design itself , you should restart from scratch with a twin engine first ...


""I await the details of any other fighter that does this.""


You will not find any because the technology doesn 't work as I said .
 



Feel free to explain to me what it is about the special cooling features of the F-35 that does not work.  If you don't know how or what to say, then go ahead and at least please cite whatever it is you read that lead you to this conclusion.
 
 
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Bluewings12       6/14/2009 10:01:29 PM
Herald , you made me laugh BIG time ! lol ! No bad intented , it is just how my sense of humour did put you down and made you go berserk , lol !
But I am right and correct Herald ;-) 
 
""How about you trying to describe how you carry heat out of the hot zone of a turbofan so that it doesn't melt the engine combustion pot walls, cretin?""
 
Since you can 't respond to my point about how shitty the F-35 cooling system is , you ask me for some technicals details who have NOTHING to do with the matter at hand . One more time , you are trying to escape the point with a loser attack . Well done , how crap you are ... Sure , I could perfectly answer your question with 2 pdfs from Snecma but I will no play your game . Get lost or answer my point , THEN I might consider answering yours .
 
Cheers .

 
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Herald12345    Look punk.   6/14/2009 11:00:51 PM

Herald , you made me laugh BIG time ! lol ! No bad intented , it is just how my sense of humour did put you down and made you go berserk , lol !

But I am right and correct Herald ;-) 

 


""How about you trying to describe how you carry heat out of the hot zone of a turbofan so that it doesn't melt the engine combustion pot walls, cretin?""

 

Since you can 't respond to my point about how shitty the F-35 cooling system is , you ask me for some technicals details who have NOTHING to do with the matter at hand . One more time , you are trying to escape the point with a loser attack . Well done , how crap you are ... Sure , I could perfectly answer your question with 2 pdfs from Snecma but I will no play your game . Get lost or answer my point , THEN I might consider answering yours .


 


Cheers .







The same processes that keep an Ariane's ventiuris from melting are what is used to keep a jet engine combustion pot from melting. Now if you are too stupid to know that, that is not MY problem.
 
Now go play your ignorant games with the six year olds you so clearly resemble..
 
Herald
 
 
 
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Reactive       6/15/2009 7:24:38 AM
I, for one, think the F-35 is going to far-exceed requirements, a lot of analysts think similarly.
 
Delays have occurred on most major manned fighter programs in the last decade, the fundamental design of the F-35 is ambitious, but make no mistake, BW, I think you again lack specific knowledge relevant to this topic, I think this is one of those occasions where "press releases" and statements of difficulty (that have been repeated in every single fighter program ever, period) are not "proof that the concept won't work", rather, they are the anticipated result of a very ambitious project.
 
I know that some of the posters here have technical expertise in the subjects you are attempting to argue with, you are not using specific technical, engineering understanding, rather quite "loose" arguments that I can see are frustrating people. 
 
I respectfully ask you to at least consider whether you do honestly know enough about this subject to actually argue with engineers.
 
 "The culprit is the aircraft design itself , you should restart from scratch with a twin engine first ..."
 
And given you haven't ever professed to have worked in any area of aircraft design, I also (very respectfully) suggest that you are not the best judge of whether this is accurate. 
 
The F-35 is monumentally challenging to build, like many programs, and it will likely be delayed, but that is understandable, it's actually "the norm".
 
You clearly expect and believe it will fail, point taken, but please stop passing off your opinions as verified facts, at least acknowledge your own limitations in making a weighted analysis of a complete procurement program.
 
ReactivE

 
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Phaid       6/15/2009 2:48:14 PM


I quote :


""The F35 A/B/C can't provide the promised performance because, gee who knew, the biggest turbo fan engine ever produced is very expensive to engineer and quite persnickety to keep running inside that little cocoon of a fuselage. It has a problem dissipating thermal energy off out of the small airframe without cooking everything in the process. Hint: consistently high heat will wear the airframe out faster than other modern airframe types, so, this plane won't last as long as the legacy aircraft that it is supposed to replace because they are falling apart during 1g flight profiles.""


This is not from me (stop your fire) , but if it was from me I would have been cursed . But this is exactly what I 've been saying for the last year or so ...

Cheers .



Care to SOURCE the idiot who said that?

I have no idea why BW said to "ask Phaid".  I certainly didn't write that and I don't recall who did.  As usual he simply doesn't have a clue.
 
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SpudmanWP       6/15/2009 3:06:50 PM

While Herald is learning stuff on the Net about heat transfer (good to him but it will be of no use regarding the F-35) , my answer will be to Warpig . You said :

""and how the F-35 manages this in particular by dissipating the heat across the airframe by using the fuel system.""
 
The technology DOES NOT WORK . Is that plain enough ? Then , if you would check how the heat transfer devices failed repeatedly you would NOT bring this crap again . The entire cooling system has to be re-designed again but it will not work , whatever the efforts made . The culprit is the aircraft design itself , you should restart from scratch with a twin engine first ...
 
""I await the details of any other fighter that does this.""
 
You will not find any because the technology doesn 't work as I said .
 
Regarding my posts about French opticals , IRSTs and missiles , I stick to what I said and rightly .

Cheers .

Your complete lack of the ability to do any research is ASTOUNDING.
 
A quick Google of  "f-35 thermal issues" comes up with this AWST article as the 1st result.  Here is a quick quote:
"The aircraft is meeting the specification for thermal management, but the Joint Strike Fighter program?s deputy executive officer, Maj. Gen. David Heinz (select), says he is asking contractors to assess the costs of changes to give it a bigger margin over the requirement.

?We meet that requirement but it is a very tough requirement,? Heinz says, adding that, while he has asked for studies for an improved margin, ?at the moment I don?t need it.?"

Now, if you have a reputable source to the contrary, feel free to post it.
 
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mustang22       6/15/2009 4:42:59 PM




While Herald is learning stuff on the Net about heat transfer (good to him but it will be of no use regarding the F-35) , my answer will be to Warpig . You said :




""and how the F-35 manages this in particular by dissipating the heat across the airframe by using the fuel system.""

 


The technology DOES NOT WORK . Is that plain enough ? Then , if you would check how the heat transfer devices failed repeatedly you would NOT bring this crap again . The entire cooling system has to be re-designed again but it will not work , whatever the efforts made . The culprit is the aircraft design itself , you should restart from scratch with a twin engine first ...



 

""I await the details of any other fighter that does this.""

 


You will not find any because the technology doesn 't work as I said .

 


Regarding my posts about French opticals , IRSTs and missiles , I stick to what I said and rightly .




Cheers .







Your complete lack of the ability to do any research is ASTOUNDING.

 


A quick Google of  "f-35 thermal issues" comes up with this AWST article as the 1st result.  Here is a quick quote:


"The aircraft is meeting the specification for thermal management, but the Joint Strike Fighter program?s deputy executive officer, Maj. Gen. David Heinz (select), says he is asking contractors to assess the costs of changes to give it a bigger margin over the requirement.


?We meet that requirement but it is a very tough requirement,? Heinz says, adding that, while he has asked for studies for an improved margin, ?at the moment I don?t need it.?"



Now, if you have a reputable source to the contrary, feel free to post it.






Come on guys, its obvious he access to top secret information that the rest of us do not.
 
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Bluewings12       6/15/2009 10:41:59 PM
After all I 've read on the Net (pdfs , News , forums , official sites , Jane 's , etc) I believe that something is very wrong with the F-35 and I am not the only one , people who know far more than I do also think that the JSF is not worth it .
 
Reactive wrote a good post and I am pleased to give him my point od view .
 
""I, for one, think the F-35 is going to far-exceed requirements, a lot of analysts think similarly.""
 
After how many years of testing , re-design than testing again , etc ... ??? Lockheed is going to fail to deliver on time and by so much that the Nations participating at the Program will simply walk away . They already start (for some) to look around for another product . We are in mid 2009 and I don 't expect to see the JSF in real Ops before 2015-2017 , if the program is not stopped before . Then , the jet will cost a leg to buy and an arm to maintain . Remember what I just said .
 
""Delays have occurred on most major manned fighter programs in the last decade, the fundamental design of the F-35 is ambitious, but make no mistake, BW, I think you again lack specific knowledge relevant to this topic, I think this is one of those occasions where "press releases" and statements of difficulty (that have been repeated in every single fighter program ever, period) are not "proof that the concept won't work", rather, they are the anticipated result of a very ambitious project.""
 
I do not need to be an aircraft designer to see that the F-35 is running into troubles after troubles . LM did not foresee the many problems the jet is having . 
 
""I respectfully ask you to at least consider whether you do honestly know enough about this subject to actually argue with engineers.""
 
I am not an engineer but I can see where mistakes have been done from the various test results .
 
""(BW) The culprit is the aircraft design itself , you should restart from scratch with a twin engine first ..."
 (Reactive) And given you haven't ever professed to have worked in any area of aircraft design, I also (very respectfully) suggest that you are not the best judge of whether this is accurate. ""
 
I might not be the best judge but I know that using a single and huge F-135 (or F-136) engine is a mistake and a bad one . The F-35A and C should have been designed as twin engines fighters (2 F-119s) and the B version shouldn 't even exist .
LM , the USMC and the UK will get screw by the B version , it will never work with any decent load .
Then , the F-35 aerodynamics vs thrust ratio is appealling , the thing is a brick . If the fighter wants to have enough energy to perform in an average to decent manner , it must have an internal load only to reduce the drag to minimum values .
Its IR sig is worse than any other fighter and any external load will compromise its stealth .
Then , there is the price ... Since I am here on SP , the F-35 's price has gone up big time and less than 5% of the testing is done . Less than 5% ... I let you imagine what could happen during the remaining 95% ...
 
 
You people should keep in mind that we are talking about a PROTOTYPE  in its early stage and not about a promising jet .
 
Cheers .
 
 
 

 
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Herald12345    Phaid just denied he had anything to do woith that quote.   6/15/2009 10:52:00 PM
Now provide the citation poster as I demanded once before so I can properly apologize to Phaid and properly call you a no good prevaricator which is what you appear to be.
 
Herald 
 
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sentinel28a       6/16/2009 4:48:08 AM
Obviously the solution is to rush the F-35 into production as quickly as possible, so that when it comes out, it can't do half of what the manufacturer promised it could and has to be continually revised for ten years until it can.
 
Or we could just buy Rafales.
 
 
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Herald reply   6/16/2009 8:26:31 PM
Care to SOURCE the idiot who said that? <herald
 
I said it Herald. It was a direct reference to reports that the F35 has heat management issues. You are an idiot for posting about the F35 without having knowledge of those reports and the project's responses to them. If you had bothered to check you would have found that tests were delayed in Texas last summer because of vent and electronics issues brought on by stealth shells and big engines. These frequent rants don't make you appear knowledgeable about any topic you discuss here and your fraking ignorance is only matched by your witless arrogance. That sh*t gets old Herald. You will note from the Aviation Week article that the JSF program director says that thermal management is the greatest challenge in the project. This is because it is a tight shell that can not accomodate the release of heat in the way that other non stealthy platforms can. It is not a show stopper for the development potential of the F35 but it contributes to the cost and sophistication of the F35. The F35 ultimately will be killed by politics not overheated radios.
 
Just once I would love for you to know WTF you are talking about and maybe you could read the thread instead of yelling at a participant who you don't like. If you had bothered to read the thread you would have seen my comments and then you could have asked me directly why my opinion was as stated.
 
Herald, stop being an ass.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
 
 
ht**tp://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=awst&id=news/aw081108p2.xml&headline=Component%20Failures%20Impact%20F-35%20Flight%20Testing
Lockheed Martin continues to struggle to gain momentum in flight testing of the Joint Strike Fighter, with the first F-35 again grounded by component failure and while the second aircraft heads toward a hiatus in flying that will last into early next year.
The issues will not affect the overall schedule, says Lockheed, but they are preventing key risks being retired early. These include additional noise tests funded by the Australians at a time when the F-35's environmental impact has become an issue for some international partners.
The first F-35, aircraft AA-1, is grounded awaiting the repair of nacelle vent fans designed to keep the engine bay cool on the ground. The situation has echoes of the overheating problems that dogged the F-22, but Lockheed says it is unique to AA-1.
"The issues we are dealing with are independent of the thermal management system," says deputy program manager Bobby Williams. "Nothing is on the critical path, but the earlier we get the data the better."
The problem involves repeated failures of the nacelle vent fans that force air through the space between engine and airframe to prevent heat from damaging the structure.
While the fan failures may be unrelated, thermal management is the "biggest challenge" in the F-35, says Daniel Kunec, JSF program office director, air system integration. "It is the most limiting feature, and there are still some challenges to be overcome,"

 
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RockyMTNClimber    My entire post, in context.   6/16/2009 8:29:54 PM

What a silly question! I have lost count of the number of people on these panels who have postulated that the F35 was about to be cut, cut big, and cut fast. We have seen our international "partners" reducing orders or delaying promised financial participation. Others who might want into the program are basing their interest upon the promised price of under a hundred million each (about the cost of the next F22 off of the assembly line). The F35 A/B/C can't provide the promised performance because, gee who knew, the biggest turbo fan engine ever produced is very expensive to engineer and quite persnickety to keep running inside that little cocoon of a fuselage. It has a problem dissipating thermal energy off out of the small airframe without cooking everything in the process. Hint: consistently high heat will wear the airframe out faster than other modern airframe types, so, this plane won't last as long as the legacy aircraft that it is supposed to replace because they are falling apart during 1g flight profiles.

 

Phaid you apparently wrote this piece and may I say it is good (thank you for your sources).

 

Obama and Gates have cut the F22 because of politics. They want the money to (illegally IMV) nationalize the auto, banking, financial, health care, and insurance industries. You simply can't buy F35s and fund all of the Obama Political-Commissars (called Czars for short and we now have 16 of them in the USG) at the same time.

 

To Darth. You have yet to successfully carry your position here based upon fact or history. IMV you have to ignore both to keep a straight face, which I doubt you really do. But a straight face isn't required when communicating upon this medium. Herald is right about this one. So is Phaid, so is Sentinel, so am I. The F35 won't be built in numbers big enough to meet our needs and we will not be able to react to potential threats with overwhelming force required to scare our enemies off of challenging US.

 

Check Six

 

Rocky



 
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