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Subject: UNMANNED NUCLEAR BOMBER
DarthAmerica    6/3/2009 1:10:05 PM
Unmanned and nuclear Is America ready for a UAV bomber? BY ADAM B. LOWTHER In the wake of the August 2007 incident in which six air-launched cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads were mistakenly flown from Minot Air Force Base, N.D., to Barksdale Air Force Base, La., and the August 2006 incident ? acknowledged in March 2008 ? that saw top-secret nuclear fuses mistakenly shipped to Taiwan as battery packs for UH-1 Huey helicopters, Defense Secretary Robert Gates fired Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. T. Michael Moseley. Gates also formed a task force to study nuclear weapons management, which led to former Defense Secretary James Schlesinger?s publication of the ?Report of the Secretary of Defense Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management: The Air Force Nuclear Mission.? The report, along with other recent Pentagon publications, played a role in the creation of Global Strike Command ? a major command dedicated to the nuclear mission. The mistakes had a positive outcome in that they led to the leadership?s re-examination of the entire nuclear enterprise, which served to stimulate a renaissance of thought on nuclear deterrence and the role of nuclear weapons in national security policy. As part of that renaissance, this article examines the delivery systems upon which the nuclear arsenal relies, with a focus on nuclear-capable bombers. One issue the Schlesinger report and others like it do not discuss is the possible development of a nuclear-dedicated unmanned combat aerial vehicle (ND-UCAV) as a replacement for nuclear-capable bombers. Yet the Air Force should seriously consider replacing its nuclear-capable bombers with a ND-UCAV based on the X-47B UCAV demonstrator, which the Navy began funding in 2007. While Navy requirements focus on carrier-based ISR operations, the Air Force could take advantage of the more than $800 million previously invested in the Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS) program and the $635 million currently dedicated to X-47B development and rapidly develop a ND-UVAC capable of penetrating defended air space with a small nuclear weapons payload. To understand why the ND-UCAV is an attractive option for the future, a brief look at the current condition of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and bomber legs of the nuclear triad illustrates the serious need for modernization. Three points highlight the threat to their continued credibility. First, today?s entire Air Force bomber fleet of B-52Hs, B1-Bs and B-2s, not just nuclear-capable bombers, is 90 percent smaller than it was at its peak in 1959, when Strategic Air Command (SAC) consisted of 1,366 B-47s and 488 B-52s. Placed within a proper context, the dramatic reduction in the bomber fleet diminishes a very visible and psychologically significant element of a credible deterrent that cannot be achieved with unseen ballistic-missile submarines or ICBMs. Of the current bombers in service, all three airframes are aging and in need of costly repair and upgrades. With the entire fleet of 67 B1-Bs dedicated to conventional operations, as well as a majority of the remaining 62 B-52Hs and 20 B-2s primarily dedicated to conventional operations, the nuclear bomber fleet has dwindled to a record low. Second, down from a 1969 peak of 1,054, the nation?s 450 remaining ICBMs are in a similar condition and, like the bomber fleet, aging rapidly even as they undergo periodic maintenance and upgrades through a number of life extension programs. Additionally, designed in the mid-1960s and fielded between the late 1960s and early 1970s, the nation?s Minuteman IIIs are housed in underground silos, which are in need of replacement. Silo replacement is cost-prohibitive and may lead to further reductions in ICBM numbers or, as some internal debate suggests, movement of Minuteman IIIs above ground. Third, with planning for the Next-Generation Bomber (NGB) still in its early stages within the Pentagon, the current fleet of B-52Hs will be approaching 60 before the NGB is expected to enter service in about 2018. The high development costs, underwhelming performance and high maintenance costs of the B1-B are a primary reason the B-52H remained in service after a smaller-than-expected number of B1-Bs were procured. A second attempt at replacing the B-52H led to the B-2, which cost $44 billion to develop and build 21 aircraft, making the B-2 the most expensive aircraft ever built. Even if the NGB can be developed for half the cost of the B-2, each aircraft will cost taxpayers more than $1 billion. In a constrained fiscal budget, procuring an expensive weapons system may prove to be a difficult proposition. Thus, there may be an opportunity to replace an aging bomber fleet with an advanced weapons system that is affordable ? $150 million per aircraft ? and capable of providing a credible air breathing nuclear deterrent. The ND-UCAV can meet the nation?s 21st century nuclear deterrence requi
 
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gf0012-aust       6/4/2009 8:26:32 PM

Sure, dood tell yourself anything that makes you happy, but there is no way this a/c is going to cost so little....
there were some interesting numbers crunched up a few years back.

initially there was a view that UCAV's could cost 30% of an exquiv manned weapons delivery platform. within a few months it was recalculated to approx 70%

the numbers get even more interesting when you do proper system based costing.  ie, the through life, and systems support costs start to include ground station vehicles, controllers, training for controllers, (complex UAV's can involve up to 10x more peripheral staff to do the job) etc...

in fact, there is some pretty good evidence coming out of things like BAMs and tac UAV missions that show that the human resource cost is more than manned.  where it "saves"  is at the actual manned platform level because the issue of persistence and projection, endurance, fatigue, medical etc  is saved at the coal face...  but in the case of a long range UAV, they're finding that there needs to be regular shift rotation of the controllers (every few hours, if not every hour if complex).

the dollar saving argument has been rewritten a few times - and its creeping up, not down 
 
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Monkeysee099    Technology Exists Already   6/4/2009 8:44:44 PM
Agreed with DA, the technology already exists and would be to difficult to employ.  Routes and plans can be pre-programmed with a pre-programmed RTB if the UCAV does indeed lose contact, it does happen.
 
Having your UCAV's up would provide a rapid and very visible nuclear deterrent and would be able to provide some form, maybe limited, of ISR in its location.
 
However the costs associated with these systems are going up because the support force required is pretty large, however switching controllers out every hour or even every 4 is not happening.  They might get breaks or something but shifts are likely 8 to 12 hours.  Support forces include airborne control with all the very complicated and specialized comm gear in place in their little boxes, mx for the aircraft and the boxes themselves, and a crew at the landing area to either land or monitor the landing.  Factor in logistical support for the personnel at both locations.
 
DA is right about the tiered responses, NUCAV's would be able to provide what B-52's did during the Cold War, up in the air using less fuel providing a ready response 24/7.  Cruise missles play a different role and those aren't reusable.  Ballistic missles also play a different role.  I'd argue that a UCAV that can carry conventional weapons can easily carry nukes as well, the question is would you want it to?
 
Will the DoD or the American public trust a machine, unmanned, to carry nukes?  Regardless of how safe it is in actuality, public perception as to how safe it is would be far different.  Considering the severity and definite loss of life in any nuclear conflict, wouldn't it be prudent to put a man up there who can make that final decision?  Do we really want to leave it up to Skynet or the Whoppr?  Not reactionary and anti UAV but real questions that the public will ask.
 
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Monkeysee099    Technology Exists Already   6/4/2009 8:45:57 PM
Agreed with DA, the technology already exists and would be to difficult to employ.  Should be wouldn't be difficult to employ.
 
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benellim4       6/4/2009 9:10:33 PM
Anyone who has been involved with the comms portion of a SIOP plan knows why this is a non-starter.
 
The problem is there are too many people in power that don't have Cold War experience and have forgotten what nuclear calculus is, why are triad was built the way it is, and why the protocols we have now were developed. If you understand the why, then you can understand how this doesn't work.
 
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DarthAmerica       6/4/2009 9:37:48 PM

Anyone who has been involved with the comms portion of a SIOP plan knows why this is a non-starter.

 

The problem is there are too many people in power that don't have Cold War experience and have forgotten what nuclear calculus is, why are triad was built the way it is, and why the protocols we have now were developed. If you understand the why, then you can understand how this doesn't work.


I understand perfectly why, I know not only does it work, but almost all of the needed technologies are operational and the only legitimate criticism whatsoever in all of the post in this thread are those who bring up institutional resistance and the fact that we might be uncomfortable without a man in direct control ON BOARD. Other than that, all challenges with regard to technological feesibility are invalid, all challenges with regards to COMMS architecture vulnerability are invalid, all questions of cost are invalid ect. Not that I don't respect those of you who disagree, but in my opinion you are clearly wrong. In fact, in a hurry, the DoD could put a nuclear armed UCAV in the air before the end of summer if necessary. Maybe faster. It would be crude, but could be done. Extend that timeline out to 2018 or so and a fully functional feature complete N-UCAS could be operational. Of course that assumes the funding is there. Any doubters should refer to the fact that the USAF is already looking into something just like this.

-DA
 

 
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Herald12345    You can 't abort a robot.   6/4/2009 9:44:34 PM

Anyone who has been involved with the comms portion of a SIOP plan knows why this is a non-starter.

 

The problem is there are too many people in power that don't have Cold War experience and have forgotten what nuclear calculus is, why are triad was built the way it is, and why the protocols we have now were developed. If you understand the why, then you can understand how this doesn't work.


Ir send a clear a clear and public message like Nixon dd in the 72 Arab Israeli war. Yeah, some of us do understand the advantages of a MANNED bomber as part of the Triad. Ben.
 
The ICCM has uts modern place in the mix because they can be made relatively cheaply and they are HARD to stop, but they should be supplemental toi the ICBM force as a means to blow holes open in the enemy defense.
 
One  comment about basing. There are those huge salt flats un the Western United States. The entire  arsenal of the old Soviet Union couldn't stop the old SAC from using that as a HUGE ad-hoc bomber base.  
 
And then there is one more comment. It was the idiot Clinton Administration that disbanded SAC. Its been reconstoituted of sorts as GSC or Global Strike Command. Talk about reinventing the WHEEL! What goes around comes around. And that comment  goes for all of you truck drivers! Leave the rocket science to the rocketeers.........
 
Herald
 

 

 
 
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gf0012-aust       6/4/2009 10:48:44 PM
Routes and plans can be pre-programmed with a pre-programmed RTB if the UCAV does indeed lose contact, it does happen.

and yet the US has lost a significant number of  UAV's ober afghanistan even with todays level of technology surety.

these losses have occurred on special operations as well as normal oversight, kill, persist and in unmolested space.  that includes benign space where there has been no enemy electronic molestation.  this was with  UAV's that did have RTB encoded or encoded to return to the last comms point.

its made the chinese happy, and its made afghani warlords wealthier....

there are still substantial practical issues to be addressed, no matter what spin the vendors put on it.

 


 
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DarthAmerica       6/4/2009 11:27:03 PM


Routes and plans can be pre-programmed with a pre-programmed RTB if the UCAV does indeed lose contact, it does happen.



and yet the US has lost a significant number of  UAV's ober afghanistan even with todays level of technology surety.

these losses have occurred on special operations as well as normal oversight, kill, persist and in unmolested space.  that includes benign space where there has been no enemy electronic molestation.  this was with  UAV's that did have RTB encoded or encoded to return to the last comms point.

its made the chinese happy, and its made afghani warlords wealthier....

there are still substantial practical issues to be addressed, no matter what spin the vendors put on it.



Yes and we lost enough money in B-2A and B-1B crashes to buy 2 dozen of these things. I've recovered crashed UAS so I understand how frequently this happens. But by the end of the next decade, these UA will be much more reliable and no more vulnerable to electronic molestation than any one of several dozen platforms that operates in hostile territory. You can plot out the UA failure rate over time. It's getting substantially better and by the timeframe of something like this at the current rate it would be likely to exceed even manned platforms class A mishap performance. Fact is you have Generals, Admirals and SecDefs all talking about this...SERIOUSLY. And to Congress no less. So it's not just me. The only real issue is will we trust these task to machines anymore than we do. THATS IT.
 
-DA





 
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Herald12345    THATS IT?   6/4/2009 11:38:26 PM
No its not. Facts trump assertions:
 
 
Three years hasn't changed much.
 
Herald
 
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gf0012-aust       6/4/2009 11:46:58 PM
Fact is you have Generals, Admirals and SecDefs all talking about this...SERIOUSLY. And to Congress no less. So it's not just me. The only real issue is will we trust these task to machines anymore than we do. THATS IT.
therein lies a significant part of the problem,  I'm sure I'm not the only one in here who's attended technology briefings where the senior uniforms and civilian "governing" partners expectations of what they want and what they expect to achieve are dislocated from what the geeks are able to guarantee.

the problem is that at a number of levels, some senior uniforms are blinded by the endgame tactical opportunity over the reality of what can safely be delivered/

unfortunately people die as a result when those views aren't synchronised.

can it be done - yes, years away.  now?  all you're doing is putting your own dependant stakeholders/operators in unnecessary harms way so that some boofhead can claim innovation. 

tread softly, slowly, responsibly.  people need to pull back and pause on the spin generated from some in industry... 
 
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