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Subject: UNMANNED NUCLEAR BOMBER
DarthAmerica    6/3/2009 1:10:05 PM
Unmanned and nuclear Is America ready for a UAV bomber? BY ADAM B. LOWTHER In the wake of the August 2007 incident in which six air-launched cruise missiles armed with nuclear warheads were mistakenly flown from Minot Air Force Base, N.D., to Barksdale Air Force Base, La., and the August 2006 incident ? acknowledged in March 2008 ? that saw top-secret nuclear fuses mistakenly shipped to Taiwan as battery packs for UH-1 Huey helicopters, Defense Secretary Robert Gates fired Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne and Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. T. Michael Moseley. Gates also formed a task force to study nuclear weapons management, which led to former Defense Secretary James Schlesinger?s publication of the ?Report of the Secretary of Defense Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management: The Air Force Nuclear Mission.? The report, along with other recent Pentagon publications, played a role in the creation of Global Strike Command ? a major command dedicated to the nuclear mission. The mistakes had a positive outcome in that they led to the leadership?s re-examination of the entire nuclear enterprise, which served to stimulate a renaissance of thought on nuclear deterrence and the role of nuclear weapons in national security policy. As part of that renaissance, this article examines the delivery systems upon which the nuclear arsenal relies, with a focus on nuclear-capable bombers. One issue the Schlesinger report and others like it do not discuss is the possible development of a nuclear-dedicated unmanned combat aerial vehicle (ND-UCAV) as a replacement for nuclear-capable bombers. Yet the Air Force should seriously consider replacing its nuclear-capable bombers with a ND-UCAV based on the X-47B UCAV demonstrator, which the Navy began funding in 2007. While Navy requirements focus on carrier-based ISR operations, the Air Force could take advantage of the more than $800 million previously invested in the Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS) program and the $635 million currently dedicated to X-47B development and rapidly develop a ND-UVAC capable of penetrating defended air space with a small nuclear weapons payload. To understand why the ND-UCAV is an attractive option for the future, a brief look at the current condition of the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and bomber legs of the nuclear triad illustrates the serious need for modernization. Three points highlight the threat to their continued credibility. First, today?s entire Air Force bomber fleet of B-52Hs, B1-Bs and B-2s, not just nuclear-capable bombers, is 90 percent smaller than it was at its peak in 1959, when Strategic Air Command (SAC) consisted of 1,366 B-47s and 488 B-52s. Placed within a proper context, the dramatic reduction in the bomber fleet diminishes a very visible and psychologically significant element of a credible deterrent that cannot be achieved with unseen ballistic-missile submarines or ICBMs. Of the current bombers in service, all three airframes are aging and in need of costly repair and upgrades. With the entire fleet of 67 B1-Bs dedicated to conventional operations, as well as a majority of the remaining 62 B-52Hs and 20 B-2s primarily dedicated to conventional operations, the nuclear bomber fleet has dwindled to a record low. Second, down from a 1969 peak of 1,054, the nation?s 450 remaining ICBMs are in a similar condition and, like the bomber fleet, aging rapidly even as they undergo periodic maintenance and upgrades through a number of life extension programs. Additionally, designed in the mid-1960s and fielded between the late 1960s and early 1970s, the nation?s Minuteman IIIs are housed in underground silos, which are in need of replacement. Silo replacement is cost-prohibitive and may lead to further reductions in ICBM numbers or, as some internal debate suggests, movement of Minuteman IIIs above ground. Third, with planning for the Next-Generation Bomber (NGB) still in its early stages within the Pentagon, the current fleet of B-52Hs will be approaching 60 before the NGB is expected to enter service in about 2018. The high development costs, underwhelming performance and high maintenance costs of the B1-B are a primary reason the B-52H remained in service after a smaller-than-expected number of B1-Bs were procured. A second attempt at replacing the B-52H led to the B-2, which cost $44 billion to develop and build 21 aircraft, making the B-2 the most expensive aircraft ever built. Even if the NGB can be developed for half the cost of the B-2, each aircraft will cost taxpayers more than $1 billion. In a constrained fiscal budget, procuring an expensive weapons system may prove to be a difficult proposition. Thus, there may be an opportunity to replace an aging bomber fleet with an advanced weapons system that is affordable ? $150 million per aircraft ? and capable of providing a credible air breathing nuclear deterrent. The ND-UCAV can meet the nation?s 21st century nuclear deterrence requi
 
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JFKY    UH, Darth...   6/3/2009 3:57:28 PM
Can't we achieve the same thing with 2 Cruise Missiles?  I mean they're drones too, and we don't have to develop new ones...
 
An Unmanned but man-in-the-loop UCAV for the nuclear mission is a non-starter.  Once the nuclear war starts we're going to lose the satellite communications that will make it work and therefore it won't work, right?
 
So it will have to be an unmanned, pre-programmed drone, kind of like the ALCM or SLCM so rather than fund a multi-billion dollar follow-on to ALCM or SLCM....let's just build a few more ALCM or SLCM.
 
Seriously, no sarcasm, no irony I'd be interested in Herald's "take" on this as he SEEMS to have a grasp of the technical in's and out's of aviation and electronics....I don't see an UCAV for the Nuclear Delivery mission.
 
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DarthAmerica       6/3/2009 5:08:57 PM

Can't we achieve the same thing with 2 Cruise Missiles?  I mean they're drones too, and we don't have to develop new ones...

An Unmanned but man-in-the-loop UCAV for the nuclear mission is a non-starter.  Once the nuclear war starts we're going to lose the satellite communications that will make it work and therefore it won't work, right?

So it will have to be an unmanned, pre-programmed drone, kind of like the ALCM or SLCM so rather than fund a multi-billion dollar follow-on to ALCM or SLCM....let's just build a few more ALCM or SLCM.

Seriously, no sarcasm, no irony I'd be interested in Herald's "take" on this as he SEEMS to have a grasp of the technical in's and out's of aviation and electronics....I don't see an UCAV for the Nuclear Delivery mission.

JFKY,

The difference between a UCAV and CM is that the UCAV can RTB after an abort. You can put a nuclear UCAV up for days potentially and maybe longer in a time of tension. Imagine a CVN putting a bunch of these on station within a few hours or less of potential targets for a long time. It would be very survivable and difficult to stop. Because it's a discrete weapon, it would cause the kind of alarm a CM launch would. Also, SATCOM is very robust and not as vulnerable as some suggest. Hardening and securing the COMMS is definitely expensive. But not so vulnerable as to be useless. At the strategic level our space assets are anti-jam, LPI and have extensive nuclear hardening in addition to being rapidly replaceble in some cases. This is some of the DoD/USG most sensitive information and is not like the commercial birds we bounce signals off of out of convenience in order to use more BW. 

Not saying the enemy wont try and even have some success. But it is definitely a contest all by itself and we are not unprepared.
 
-DA
 
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DarthAmerica    Spelling   6/3/2009 5:10:32 PM
"it would cause the kind of alarm a CM launch would" should read "it wouldn't cause the kind of alarm a CM launch would".

Regards
-DA
 
 
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mustang22       6/3/2009 5:27:54 PM
I think the low observable characteristic will enhance its ability over a cruise missile. Probably a better solution that spending billions on the development of another manned bomber when we would only produce 20-30 of them anyway. Can a cruise missile be called back? If its all out nuclear war, chances are the last thing we will be focused on is satellites, if they are gone so are we. I get the impression that this would be utilized to destroy specific areas of military importance, not such much to wipe a country off the map, but of course I could be completely wrong on all accounts.
 
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JFKY    My Point Being   6/3/2009 5:48:58 PM
Nuclear Deterrence has NOTHING to do with striking first, and in fact, requires a robust response...IF the PRC, Russia, Iran, or Botswana strike first, using EMP and discrete attacks on satellite control points, the ND-UCAV loses it's satellite communications.  And hence LO or not, it doesn't "go" anywhere....
 
It's why LORAN or TACAN or any external guidance system was taboo for SAC systems, as a primary guidance system, because in the event of war, and Soviet first strike these external systems would most likely die, rendering the deterrent force inoperable.
 
A man-in-the-loop UCAV is just such a system...the man is not there and if the communication is gone, the system is not there...
 
So again, wouldn't it just be cheaper AND MORE EFFECTIVE to use SLCM and ALCM?  Any way, a CM is pretty LO, certainly capable of penetrating the PRC and most Russian targets, wouldn't you say?
 
Bottom-line: you want an UNMANNED Nuclear Delivery System, an ICBM, a CM with DSMC and TerCom, or an SLBM are the way to go, as they require nothing imported from the outside to accomplish their mission(s).  You want a man to be there to deliver "The Bomb" the man has to be ON the platform, not separated from the platform tele-operating it.  Again your mileage may vary.
 
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VelocityVector       6/3/2009 6:15:21 PM

Nuke carriers are just that.  The same authorization principles apply whether manned or unmanned.  Abort/go messages travel the same paths and would be interpreted with comparable reliability.  The only thing a man changes is if he chooses to act against established procedures and that decision is 100% correct after review.  0.02

v^2

 
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DarthAmerica    jFKY reply   6/3/2009 6:38:02 PM

Bottom-line: you want an UNMANNED Nuclear Delivery System, an ICBM, a CM with DSMC and TerCom, or an SLBM are the way to go, as they require nothing imported from the outside to accomplish their mission(s).  You want a man to be there to deliver "The Bomb" the man has to be ON the platform, not separated from the platform tele-operating it.  Again your mileage may vary.

That's like saying that SSBN's are not a valid concept because they are out of contact sometimes. There are many ways to ensure reliable communications with the UCAV and they can be as simple as carrying out preprogramed attacks on specific targets in the event of certain input or lack thereof. There are also classified communications architectures that deal with things like this. The DoD isn't just hoping that somehow they can talk to their man or machines in the event of catastrophic attack. Man in the loop is desirable I agree bust certainly not necessary.

-DA 
 
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JFKY    Darth and Velocity Vector   6/3/2009 8:34:43 PM
you miss the point...a CVN or an SSBN have a man making the decision to launch or not, but the CM, or Trident are UNMANNED,,,they do NOT have a man-in-the-loop....the ND-UCAV, as it appears, in this article, will be "flown" to the target by a man-in-the-loop lose that satcom capacity; lose the delivery system.
 
Lose satcom with a CVN and the system can compensate, lose satcom and the SSBN can launch, or could....
 
again the systems you have posited, still operate without outside input once launched....
 
An unmanned CONVENTIONAL bomber is fine...there won't be nuclear weapons "popping off"; there won't be EMP or plasma in the upper atmosphere or damage to the satellites or control stations....but nuclear conflict is a order of magnitude much more violent and destructive!
 
To me, right now, this thing reads like that silly space bomber/Marine Transport plane that SCCOMarine dragged in...a neat idea in search of a problem to solve.
 
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JFKY    SAC   6/3/2009 8:39:23 PM
would oppose this idea....it involves an outside input for successful delivery of the nuclear weapon.  Just like SAC would oppose GPS for B-52's or warheads...it requires an outside signal, that may not or may not be present due to nuclear combat, to arrive on target.
 
Outside input is nice in peacetime navigation, but it could never be expected to provide support for actual war missions...stellar navigation, ballistic information, radar navigation (bombers), even looking out the window and seeing where you were....but never TACAN or GPS or LORAN or any other aids to navigation.
 
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DarthAmerica       6/3/2009 8:59:45 PM

would oppose this idea....it involves an outside input for successful delivery of the nuclear weapon.  Just like SAC would oppose GPS for B-52's or warheads...it requires an outside signal, that may not or may not be present due to nuclear combat, to arrive on target.

 

Outside input is nice in peacetime navigation, but it could never be expected to provide support for actual war missions...stellar navigation, ballistic information, radar navigation (bombers), even looking out the window and seeing where you were....but never TACAN or GPS or LORAN or any other aids to navigation.

JFKY,

It's already doing that. I'll put it to you like this. There are no technological barriers to making this work and much of what's necessary is already operationally fielded.  There may be an institutional resistance but we are over the tech hurdles. The AI, stealth technology, EW/COMs capability, hardening, redundancies and weapons security issues are solved and could easily be integrated. Again, this is no different fundamentally from putting a warhead on a CM except you can reuse the delivery mechanism. BWT, there is no more SAC. Those duties are now handled by US Strategic Command.

-DA 
 
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