Concession accepted.

 

Herald

The nice little picture posted shows future UCAVs performing every mission possible other than air superiority.  What decade this happens is an open question.  What is not is clearly the lowered need for F-35's since eventually UCAVs perform all F-35 missions.  The case for more F-22's and less F-35s could not be made more clearly.  Except of course if one simply compares costs.

Those UCAV's are creating the conditions that will allow MUCH SHORTER RANGED/ENDURANCE fighters to get close enough to do their jobs. This is something we can do in the next decade. MUST DO.

-DA 

The forward basing will not be there. 

 

 Herald

 

 

 

 

Classic response from either a complete ass-hole or complete bully, or both.

 

Meanwhile, on the heels of that GAO report that says the F-35 program needs the F136 engine to maintain competition and lower future costs, here's another analysis... that says if we don't kill the F136, the F-35 project will die.  This is really scary.

 

The reason it's scary is that according to this new analysis, the added cost of the F136 will force a reduction in LRIP aircraft procurement, which will drive the unit cost of the early aircraft up so high that it will become unaffordable for international partners.  So they'll pull out and the whole thing will collapse.

 

The F136 is not a whole lot of money in the context of the overall program.  If today, using the already-optimistic projections for the JSF program, the difference between life or death is the development cost of the F136, what happens down the road when glitches and design problems are found?

 

This is exactly what I've been saying all along.  The project's funding margins are so narrow that any added cost risks collapsing the entire thing.  And this is exactly why putting all our eggs in this basket is foolhardy.

Following up to my last post.  The total development cost of the F136 engine is $2.4 billion.  The contract was awarded in '05 and scheduled to end in 2013, so an annual cost of $300 million.

 

Three hundred million dollars per year is the difference between success and failure of a tactical aircraft project that has completed less than 5% of its flight testing?  And people are still optimistic about this?

No reason not to be. The F-35 is not an optional procurement decision at this point. Short of a critical design flaw, nothing is going to stop the F-35 from being procured to replace the F-Teens.

-DA 

Darth, specifically how many F35s do you predict the Obama Administration will fund? What is the minimum number required to at least reach the "high risk" profile of aircraft for each branch (the Obama Admin accepted the high risk assessment for the F22 so it stands to reason the F35 will be procured there, if it is procured at all).

 

My prediction is that the F35 program has a less than 50-50% chance of ever reaching maturity and having a militarily important number of aircraft operating. I am defining militarily important as comparable to other cutting edge US types: only about 60 F117's were built, only 20 or so B2s, and now only 187 F22s. Based upon history then, I feel justified in saying that the USAF gets fewer than 100 (if any), the USN the same (if any), and the USMC none. Allies? None and none. These aircraft will morph into a specialized attack platform to be used in high threat environs only ( a sort of high tech A-6 Intruder). It will be repackaged not as our all around replacement for the F16, F15C, or F15 Strike Eagles, but instead as a specialized attack platform and Wild Weasel Extraodinaire. The allies will be given the opportunity to buy F35s at the market price, what ever that ends up being with a total US buy of under 200 US aircraft (assuming the USN stays in the program just to get a "stealthy" aircraft.

 

Obama and Gates will justify the program cuts by saying that large numbers of these type of aircraft are simply no longer required. That, that was "yesterday's thinking" promoted by "Dick Cheney and the previous Administration" who was "Stuck in the Cold War" with these missions being performed now by UAVs.

 

The F35 will end up being a $300++ million a-piece bomb sled (because of smaller production runs) that won't meet our numbers needs for air superiority let alone Tac-air or CAS and will barely be able to function along side of the F22 in very high threat environments at about twice the cost of today's F22.

 

You have my prediction, what is yours?

 

Check Six

 

Rocky