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Subject: Hypothetical...H-8 Stealth Bomber.
DarthAmerica    5/19/2009 1:36:26 PM
Lets suppose for this discussion that the PRC was able to clone some of the technologies behind the F-117 from data theft and materials recovered from Serbia in the 1990's. After nearly a decade of effort and in total secrecy they developed their own Stealth Fighter Bomber. Not quite an F-22/35 or even PAK-FA but something that had about a 1000nm combat radius, flew on indigenous engines that cruise at high subsonic speeds and could dash to M1.3-1.4 in reheat and was about the size and had payload of an F-111 with an RCS of about .01 sqm. This H-8 has the ability to employ defensive air to air and nuclear weapons and was operational in squadron strength when announced. Lets say they had 24.

a. How do you think this would change things in the PACRIM and beyond?

b. How would Taiwan, Japan, SKorea, Singapore and Australia view this?

c. Would it be destabilizing?

-DA
 
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Rufus       5/19/2009 3:11:51 PM
Lets suppose for this discussion that the PRC was able to clone some of the technologies behind the F-117 from data theft and materials recovered from Serbia in the 1990's. After nearly a decade of effort and in total secrecy they developed their own Stealth Fighter Bomber. Not quite an F-22/35 or even PAK-FA but something that had about a 1000nm combat radius, flew on indigenous engines that cruise at high subsonic speeds and could dash to M1.3-1.4 in reheat and was about the size and had payload of an F-111 with an RCS of about .01 sqm. This H-8 has the ability to employ defensive air to air and nuclear weapons and was operational in squadron strength when announced. Lets say they had 24.

a. How do you think this would change things in the PACRIM and beyond?

b. How would Taiwan, Japan, SKorea, Singapore and Australia view this?

c. Would it be destabilizing?
 
 
I know this is a hypothetical, but producing something like what you described would be incredibly challenging and would require a whole heck of a lot more than some F-117 samples.  The US is the only country in the world that has demonstrated the ability to produce anything similar to what you described, and that is after decades of incredibly expensive R&D.
 
 
 

 
 
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DarthAmerica       5/19/2009 3:31:36 PM

Lets suppose for this discussion that the PRC was able to clone some of the technologies behind the F-117 from data theft and materials recovered from Serbia in the 1990's. After nearly a decade of effort and in total secrecy they developed their own Stealth Fighter Bomber. Not quite an F-22/35 or even PAK-FA but something that had about a 1000nm combat radius, flew on indigenous engines that cruise at high subsonic speeds and could dash to M1.3-1.4 in reheat and was about the size and had payload of an F-111 with an RCS of about .01 sqm. This H-8 has the ability to employ defensive air to air and nuclear weapons and was operational in squadron strength when announced. Lets say they had 24.



a. How do you think this would change things in the PACRIM and beyond?



b. How would Taiwan, Japan, SKorea, Singapore and Australia view this?



c. Would it be destabilizing?



 

 

I know this is a hypothetical, but producing something like what you described would be incredibly challenging and would require a whole heck of a lot more than some F-117 samples.  The US is the only country in the world that has demonstrated the ability to produce anything similar to what you described, and that is after decades of incredibly expensive R&D.


 
I understand that which is why it's hypothetical and I mentioned espionage activity to make it plausible. However, I don't think it would be a stretch for the PRC to design a very crude LO airframe.  Also, a lot of the risk have already been taken. It's like solving a problem you already know the answer to based on someone else work. 
-DA 
 

 



 

 
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gf0012-aust       5/19/2009 6:41:09 PM
The F-117 as a technology provider for foreign LO development is basically out of date.

A few years ago there was an ITARs issue about releasing technology inadvertently to China.  It turns out that there was more relevant LO materials science issues in the Boeing 767 than in the F-117 program.

At that stage it was "unstoppable"  as china had already been making 767 components.  In a real sense, they've picked up more useful intel in their commercial airline production opportunity than they ever would have out of the F-117 program bearing in mind that the F-117's legacy comes out of LO concepts developed over 30 years ago.

An LO H8?  Too many issues to deal with that would make it cost negative.  Better to start with a clean sheet commercial aircraft.

by the time you rewinged the H8, used new metallurgical solutions for the cross spars, added new engines etc it would be a new aircraft - and still well past its use by date.

besides, how are you going to put shock ramps and S bends in a podded engine? 

 
 
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DarthAmerica       5/19/2009 7:39:18 PM

The F-117 as a technology provider for foreign LO development is basically out of date.




A few years ago there was an ITARs issue about releasing technology inadvertently to China.  It turns out that there was more relevant LO materials science issues in the Boeing 767 than in the F-117 program.




At that stage it was "unstoppable"  as china had already been making 767 components.  In a real sense, they've picked up more useful intel in their commercial airline production opportunity than they ever would have out of the F-117 program bearing in mind that the F-117's legacy comes out of LO concepts developed over 30 years ago.




An LO H8?  Too many issues to deal with that would make it cost negative.  Better to start with a clean sheet commercial aircraft.




by the time you rewinged the H8, used new metallurgical solutions for the cross spars, added new engines etc it would be a new aircraft - and still well past its use by date.




besides, how are you going to put shock ramps and S bends in a podded engine? 




 GF,

H-8 is a random designation I came up with for the hypothetical and not meant to reflect a mod. Apologies for any confusion but I meant simply to discuss the consequences of a relatively crude PLAAF stealth aircraft using old techniques.

 

--DA 

 
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DarthAmerica       5/19/2009 7:40:07 PM

The F-117 as a technology provider for foreign LO development is basically out of date.




A few years ago there was an ITARs issue about releasing technology inadvertently to China.  It turns out that there was more relevant LO materials science issues in the Boeing 767 than in the F-117 program.




At that stage it was "unstoppable"  as china had already been making 767 components.  In a real sense, they've picked up more useful intel in their commercial airline production opportunity than they ever would have out of the F-117 program bearing in mind that the F-117's legacy comes out of LO concepts developed over 30 years ago.




An LO H8?  Too many issues to deal with that would make it cost negative.  Better to start with a clean sheet commercial aircraft.




by the time you rewinged the H8, used new metallurgical solutions for the cross spars, added new engines etc it would be a new aircraft - and still well past its use by date.




besides, how are you going to put shock ramps and S bends in a podded engine? 




 GF,

H-8 is a random designation I came up with for the hypothetical and not meant to reflect a mod. Apologies for any confusion but I meant simply to discuss the consequences of a relatively crude PLAAF stealth aircraft using old techniques.

 

--DA 

 
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DarthAmerica       5/19/2009 7:40:55 PM
P.S. ANYTHING to get off of always discussing Rafale here...;)
 
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gf0012-aust       5/19/2009 10:58:39 PM
GF,

H-8 is a random designation I came up with for the hypothetical and not meant to reflect a mod. Apologies for any confusion but I meant simply to discuss the consequences of a relatively crude PLAAF stealth aircraft using old techniques.

--DA 


Thank goddness, I was starting to wonder whether you'd fallen off your bike and hit a tree head first... :)

Welcome to the mythical H8 - an H6 with podded engines, 2 extra engines on an existing airframe and an RCS bigger than Alpha Centauri...
 

 





 
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smitty237    What the heck...   5/20/2009 12:23:08 AM
The PRC has had plenty of opportunity to study stealth technology, and while it is unlikely that the PRC could presently duplicate the F-117, they could probably come damn close to it by now.  At the very least they could be theoretically capable of producing aircraft that would be difficult for lower end radar systems to detect.  This would be a bigger problem for our allies in the region (Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, and maybe Japan and Australia), but if the balloon goes up the Chinese may hope to get lucky against an American aircraft carrier or AWACS aircraft.  Remember, the F-117 is designed to carry a light bomber load and fly into enemy air space to destroy command and control and radar sites at the onset of hostilities.  A fleet of 24 stealthy light bombers could cause a lot of damage to Taiwan's radar defenses and knock some holes for their bombers to fly through.  Were such a Chinese weapons program discovered I'm sure the biggest effect would be that a lot of our allies in the region would start spending a lot of money to upgrade their radar systems, but I doubt it would be much of a destabilizer because the Chinese don't give a damn about international public opinion and generally do whatever the hell they want anyway.  It's not like we'll launch an airstrike to destroy them. 
 
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Herald12345    What the PRC Bandits can do, they're doing.    5/20/2009 10:41:05 AM
Its not likely that they will change what they attempt. Despite their aggressions and imperialist ways, their are still on a steep technology learning slope and they still steal and buy from foreign sources to mount their best threats to world peace.

The Harbin is their best bomber. It isn't very good; not even as good as a 1957 era B-47 Stratofort. Its what they have though..  
What they need, is to reform and liberate the Chinese people 
 
What the PRC bandits want is something like a Backfire of their own that can launch a KITCHEN or a KICKBACK.
 
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warpig       5/20/2009 12:18:52 PM
Since we're hypothesizing they can build a regiment of LO aircraft, we can also hypothesize they have enough FT-2 and FT-5 winged glide bomb JDAM equivalent bombs to arm them with.  Taiwan's SAMs, being known, fixed sites, would be in great danger of being decapitated by GPS-guided bomb strikes.  These bombs will have some significant standoff range, just like our SDBs do, and an RCS of 0.01m2 could be enough to get close enough to deploy them.  Combined with conventional SRBMs, LACMs, and stand-off jamming support from some of their Y-8 EW aircraft where deemed necessary for penetrating the early warning radar network, a full regiment strike could easily rip up Taiwan's SAM defenses.  Following that up with a full court press from several dozen Su-30 and several dozen J-11B (Su-30 equivalents domestically produced), along with a supporting cast of a hundred lesser jets, while hitting TAF airfields with more SRBMs and LACMs, could easily gain air superiority sufficient to bring in attack aircraft dropping FT-1 and FT-3 JDAM-equivalents and LT-3 LGBs, and the PLAAF could definitely make a dent in Taiwan's C3.  The ROCAF had better have dug their bunkers, like their single air defense operations center C2 bunker, in deep enough to protect from JDAMs and terminally-guided SRBMs, because in this hypothetical case the PLAAF has the precision attack capability to rain a Desert Storm on them.
 
Thankfully, I for one do not think they are capable of producing an LO aircraft any year soon.  They are barely capable of making something like an F-16 on their own.
 
 
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Herald12345    Then RoC and Israel need to get together.    5/20/2009 12:34:49 PM
A MOBILE radar and SAM network is a must as well as that shelter program.
 

Herald
 
 
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FJV    They need better than F-117 tech.   5/20/2009 2:42:02 PM
The Germans did their own stealth research in the 1980's.
Source:
"http://www.defenceaviation.com/2007/07/germany-reveals-secret-stealth-fighter.html"
 
 
I remember reading somewhere that the Germans thought that a counter against their desing could/would be developed within 10 years.
 
I have a hunch that what the Germans had of F117 similar tech back then is probably a more than what the Chinese have of F-117 tech now.
 
If I combine the 2, then the US (and others) should have the counter tech for the plane described already available.
 
The question then becomes, how much of these counters are you willing to share with Japan and Korea?
 
 

 
 
 

 
 
 
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DarthAmerica       5/20/2009 4:49:43 PM


GF,

H-8 is a random designation I came up with for the hypothetical and not meant to reflect a mod. Apologies for any confusion but I meant simply to discuss the consequences of a relatively crude PLAAF stealth aircraft using old techniques.

--DA 

Thank goddness, I was starting to wonder whether you'd fallen off your bike and hit a tree head first... :)

Welcome to the mythical H8 - an H6 with podded engines, 2 extra engines on an existing airframe and an RCS bigger than Alpha Centauri...




LOL not quite. I barely even get time to ride the darn thing anymore...:(

-DA 

 














 
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