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Subject: SecDef Gates recommends halting F-22 and POTUS Helo production
DarthAmerica    4/6/2009 3:53:07 PM
h*tp://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D97D4QTO1&show_article=1 Apr 6 02:44 PM US/Eastern By ANNE GEARAN AP Military Writer WASHINGTON (AP) - Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Monday recommended halting production of the F-22 fighter jet and scrapping a new helicopter for the president as he outlined deep cuts to many of the military's biggest weapons programs. Gates said his $534 billion budget proposal represents a "fundamental overhaul" in defense acquisition and reflects a shift in priorities from fighting conventional wars to the newer threats U.S. forces face from insurgents in places such as Afghanistan. The department must ensure it has the right programs and money to "fight the wars we are in today and the scenarios we are most likely to face in the years to come, while at the same time providing a hedge against other risks," Gates said as he revealed details of his budget for the next fiscal year. The promised emphasis on budget paring is a reversal from the Bush years, which included a doubling of the Pentagon's spending since 2001. Spending on tanks, fighter planes, ships, missiles and other weapons accounted for about a third of all defense spending last year. But Gates noted more money will be needed in areas such as personnel as the Army and Marines expand the size of their forces. Gates will likely face stiff resistance in Congress, where lawmakers are wary of losing defense contractor jobs with an economy in crisis. Some defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin Corp. have warned of huge layoffs if programs are cut. Production of the F-22 fighter jet, which cost $140 million apiece, would be halted at 187. Plans to build a new helicopter for the president and a helicopter to rescue downed pilots would be canceled. A new communications satellite would be scrapped and the program for a new Air Force transport plane would be ended. Some of the Pentagon's most expensive programs would also be scaled back. The Army's $160 billion Future Combat Systems modernization program would lose its armored vehicles. Plans to build a shield to defend against missile attacks by rogue states would also be scaled back. Yet some programs would grow. Gates proposed speeding up production of the F-35 fighter jet, which could end up costing $1 trillion to manufacture and maintain 2,443 planes. The military would buy more speedy ships that can operate close in to land. And more money would be spent outfitting special forces troops that can hunt down insurgents. "It is important to remember that every defense dollar spent to over-ensure against a remote or diminishing risk?or in effect to run up the score in a capability where the United States is already dominant?is a dollar not available to take care of our people, reset the force, win the wars we are in and improve capabilities in areas where we are underinvested and potentially vulnerable," Gates said. The Government Accountability Office reported last week that 96 of the Pentagon's biggest weapons contracts were over budget by a "staggering" figure of $296 billion. A bill in Congress would require the Pentagon to do a better job of making sure proposed weapons are affordable and perform the way they should before the military spends big sums on them. The Defense Department has already adjusted its acquisitions policy to achieve some of those goals. ------------------------------------------------------------------ I'm already bracing myself for the comments to follow... -DA
 
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eldnah       4/9/2009 12:06:07 PM

What is amazing in this thread is that the F-22 opponents are simply ignoring the $1 trillion lifetime cost of the F-35 program —more than $300 billion to acquire 2,456 aircraft and $760 billion in life cycle operating and support costs.  And that's just the current program estimates..., there is absolutely no reason to believe it won't get even worse.

 

The current plan is simply a boondoggle.  Here is my prediction: the F-35's acquisition cost will continue to spira...l, while its performance will never really live up to its claims; in particular, its maintainability and availabilitiy will suffer.  As a result of all of these, we will never be able to afford the currently projected numbers, so our Air Force will soldier on with aging and increasingly expensive to maintain aircraft alongside its excessively expensive F-35s.  The resulting reduced availability and increased costs will decrease operational tempo and we'll end up with a hollow, undeployable force.


 

This quote from the GAO report linked above is instructive:

Further, expected cost per flight hour now exceeds that of the F-16 legacy fighter, one of the aircraft it is intended to replace. With almost 90 percent (in terms of dollars) of the acquisition program still ahead, it is important to address these challenges, effectively manage future risks, and move forward with a successful program that meets our and our allies? needs.

If we're really worried about cost, why are we going to replace a huge number of our airframes with a bigger, costlier airplane than the F-16, when we don't need it?  It would be cheaper in the long run to have a force of 400 F-22s, 1300 F-16s (on a 1 for 1 basis, replace the Block 25/30/32, then 40/42, then 50/52 in turn by new-build Block 60+) and 217 F-15Es.  Drop the F-35 in favor of new-build F-16s, and build 30 F-22s a year, retiring F-15A-Cs on a 2:1 basis.  That gives us a modern, sustainable force of F-16s that are cheap and plenty capable, and a large enough force of F-22s to do OCA/SEAD/DEAD/first day of war strike.  Quite simply, with a large enough force of F-22s to deal with the triple digit SAM threat, you don't need the bulk of your aircraft to have VLO features.


 

That plan would absolutely be cheaper in terms of both new procurement and operational costs, it has no technological risk because all of the aircraft to be procured are available now and work now, and it eliminates the growing and ever more costly maintenance headache of the F-15A-C early.



   Unfortunately the above plan (1) Leaves the Navy without a true stealth aircraft for its carriers. If you want to create a real financial scream try suggesting adapting the F-22 for carrier duty. (2) Loses the flexability of new V/STOL aircraft and (3) Undercuts our international F-35 partners.
 
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Phaid       4/9/2009 12:22:35 PM
Unfortunately the above plan (1) Leaves the Navy without a true stealth aircraft for its carriers. If you want to create a real financial scream try suggesting adapting the F-22 for carrier duty. (2) Loses the flexability of new V/STOL aircraft and (3) Undercuts our international F-35 partners.
 
1) The Super Hornet and Growler are perfectly capable until stealthy UCAVs join the fleet.
 
2) There is no point in acquiring a new V/STOL aircraft.   The Marines should buy Super Hornets.  LHA/D/A(R)s are not strike carriers, and the Marines wind up operating their Harriers from fixed runways the vast majority of the time.
 
3) Our international F-35 partners are all balking at the costs of the project and could very well bail out on us.  Every one of the JSF partners has reduced or delayed its commitments to buy airframes, and we wind up bearing the resulting costs.  At some point, we have to decide to stop and live with the sunk costs.  And for those countries just as with the US, there are also cheaper alternatives: F-15ES, advanced F-16s, F/A-18s for the UK CVFs, etc.
 
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Beazz       4/9/2009 12:31:25 PM


















OK, so then what about all the countries who have placed orders for this aircraft? The cost of canceling the F-35 would be enormous from a financial and political point of view. 





 No one has placed ANY orders for the JSF as of yet DA. UK ordered 3 *test* a/c. That's it. You wait, with the economic times like they are, don't be surprised if we see some start getting cold feet. Delayying and/or cancelling.        

I would also like to know how it is Mr Gates plans on getting 513 F35's by 2014? Between 2010 and 2014 (next 5 years budget he spoke of) there is scheduled to be a total of 534 total built. Of that the US is slated for 361 of them. Of that the USAF is getting about 196 with the Navy/USMC 165. LM will be doing everything possible just to ramp up to meet that schedule and not even slated to hit the 230/yr till 2015. So where are they coming from? The partner nations just going to roll over and give theirs up because we decided we wanted ours faster? I doubt it. If they start backing out of the entire deal the F35 could very well find itself competing with the F22 in price and since we can only afford 187 of them, how we gonna afford all these thousands of the F35?



I say Gates is just blowing smoke till next year or the next when the other shoe falls on the F35. It's not humanly possible to get the amount of planes he says in that time frame and even with what we *may* get, the USAF is only going to have 196 new planes. How many literally hundreds of  F15/16's will be forced into retirement by that time DA? To even expect to get the planned number of planes LM has scheduled by that time is goning to be nothing short of a miracle. Got maybe 3 or 4% of flight testing done till now and gonna go from that to what he's stateing? He's intentionally misleading the American public is what he is doing.



Beazz,

 

He is the SecDef. If he says he will Procure X number of F-35s, then thats what he's going to do. Otherwise he will have to come up with an alternative. You can't prove he is misleading anybody so I wont debate that with you because it is clearly your opinion. Just know that the F-35s could be made at 1 per day IIRC. Do the math...




 

 link...



-DA 


Da,
Even the Sec of Def cannot pull planes out of thin air ok. The numbers I stated are not *my* opinion. Those are the officially published numbers by LM and the US Gov to date. And by anyones standards, they are extremely optimisitc. Anyone with an open mind could and should expect those numbers to slip to some extent. Certainly NOT go up, and go up by the required amount Gates is leading people to believe in order to arrive at his 513 number. For him to come out and make such a statement is either one of two things. Either he has no clue what is acutually going on with the JSF program, or he is intentionally misleading the American public.
 
Thank you but I am fully aware of t
 
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VelocityVector       4/9/2009 12:48:50 PM

It's also my gut reaction that the posters who are suggesting that F-35 be scrapped are somewhat less than sincere in their stated position F-35 could, in fact, actually be cancelled.  End run attempt, nothing more, but good game ;>)

v^2

 
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Herald12345    Ascerbic Comment.   4/9/2009 12:52:38 PM
Da,
Even the Sec of Def cannot pull planes out of thin air ok. The numbers I stated are not *my* opinion. Those are the officially published numbers by LM and the US Gov to date. And by anyones standards, they are extremely optimisitc. Anyone with an open mind could and should expect those numbers to slip to some extent. Certainly NOT go up, and go up by the required amount Gates is leading people to believe in order to arrive at his 513 number. For him (GATES) to come out and make such a statement is either one of two things. Either he has no clue what is acutually going on with the JSF program, or he is intentionally misleading the American public.
 
Thank you but I am fully aware of the proposed production schedule of the F35. More so then you it appears. The 230/yr is not scheduled to take effect until 2015 and like I said, anyone being realistic can certainly expect that to slip to some degree. The only thing in question is how much. At any rate, Gates cannot simply say we are gonna get X amount of planes and then they magically appear. In the time frame he stated, the US cannot get 513 planes and that's just a simple fact of life. As far as the 230/yr goes, the US is only slated to get 130 of those as well DA. Of those 130 it is split between the USN and USAF ( looks like after 2015 it will be about a 65/35% split in favor of the USAF) so it still leaves the USAF short of planes.
 
I got a feeling I already know what his alternative is going to be. Something like this. After further review I have determined that we do not actually need the earlier stated numbers due to advances in (fill in the blank) and procurement on the F35 will be cut to (fill in the blank). Gates is like reading an old book you've read a dozen times and already know the outcome. It's obvious to anyone with open eyes and anyone who is free to actually critizize him, which you are NOT, where he is taking this nations national defense.
 
Beazz
 
 Source is Newsweek, but it is pertinent.
 
Will Gates Nomination Revive Old Scandals?
Robert Gates was a controversial figure in the Iran-contra affair. Will his Reagan-era activities hamper his confirmation as Rumsfeld?s successor?
WEB EXCLUSIVE
Newsweek
updated 6:56 p.m. ET, Wed., Nov . 8, 2006

Nov. 8, 2006 - By choosing Robert Gates as his new Defense secretary, President George W. Bush is once again turning to a trusted warhorse from his father?s administration. But the Gates nomination also could remind the new Democratic Congress about controversies from the George H.W. Bush era as well.

Gates was investigated during the late 1980s and 1990s by independent counsel Lawrence Walsh over whether Gates had told the truth about the Iran-contra affair, which occurred during his tenure as deputy to Ronald Reagan?s CIA director, William Casey. Questions about Gates's knowledge of secret arms sales to Iran—and the diversion of proceeds to support the Nicaraguan contras—caused Gates to withdraw his nomination to succeed Casey as CIA director in 1987.

Gates was again nominated by President George H.W. Bush to be CIA chief in 1991, setting off an intense and spirited confirmation hearing in which charges and countercharges about Iran-contra flared anew. Gates also was publicly accused by former CIA subordinates of slanting intelligence about the Soviet threat—a criticism that evokes an eerie parallel to accusations hurled against the current Bush administration over its handling of pre-war intelligence about Iraq?s weapons of mass destruction and alleged ties to Al Qaeda.

After months of partisan wrangling and debate, Gates was confirmed as CIA director in November 1991 and served in that capacity until the end of the first President Bush?s term in January 1993. He later served as interim dean of the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University and, after that, as president of Texas A&M, where both the school of government and the Bush library are located. After Congress passed "intelligence reform" legislation in 2004 creating the post of a national intelligence director to coordinate the activities of feuding intelligence agencies, the White House approached Gate

 
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RockyMTNClimber    Herald reply   4/9/2009 12:54:45 PM

This army guy doesn't know the first thing about how UCAS systems actually work, does he?.  A picture posted doesn't substitute for real knowledge and experience with the machines. You have to have a comm link and a TV camera withn the robot. You have to use HUMAN eyes looking at what you shoot before you pull the trigger, and you have to have very good positive control before you turn a weapon loose over own troops. Its a lot easier when the final controller is with the launch platform in realtime radio contact when it comes to CAS instead of half a planet away when a whoopsie might occur because the sat link failed. Notice that the preferred method for bombing danger close to own troops in combat is still <MANNED>  aircraft? 


 

ALL PHYSICS IS LOCAL.





Herald


Darth's UAV problem is that he does not seem to know how or when to use them. The "no fly zones" over Bosnia and Iraq burned up thousands of hours of airframe life and was not a mission that could have been done with a Predator drone (or any other drone today). It was a pure air to air mission that soaked up 2 full F15C airwings during the 90's. Every morning the Iraqi Airforce would drive their migs at the no fly zone border and the US F15c's would respond. We had a standing BARCAP mission 24-7 for about a decade in Iraq and to a lesser degree in Bosnia (hey darth, google it!). On top of that there were standing HARM patrols to keep Iraqi SAMs pinned down.
None of this can be done by a UCAV today. Since he is unaware of those missions and their effect upon the USAFs overall mission it is safe to say he isn't qualified to discuss the USAF air superiority requirements moving forward. His argument is first political and second ego-manic. Whenever he meets someone who obviously has a clue, Phaid for instance, he retreats behind a thin veil of "I'm a veteran" and declares himself the smartest guy in the room where any who disagree are "biased". What a boob!
 
 
When he learns history and context of these conversations he might be able to think critically on the subjects. For now he is a troll.
 
Check Six
 
Rocky
 
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Phaid       4/9/2009 1:00:13 PM

It's also my gut reaction that the posters who are suggesting that F-35 be scrapped are somewhat less than sincere in their stated position F-35 could, in fact, actually be cancelled.  End run attempt, nothing more, but good game ;>)

v^2

 
I am one hundred percent sincere.  In and of itself I am not a "F-35 basher", but the program is too risky given the current economic climate.  It forces us to give up too much in the near term and may never deliver at all in the long term. 
 
I stand by my predictions.  Every single completely-new defense acquisition program in the last 10 years has spiraled out of control and wound up canceled or curtailed, and the F-35 looks well on its way to the same fate.  If the choice is between purchasing systems whose development is complete and which are known to meet our current and future needs, versus scrapping them all for a program whose success is far from assured... it isn't any choice at all.
 
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DarthAmerica       4/9/2009 1:03:54 PM

In the end - there is no convincing Darth.  So I best leave him to the US Army to deal with (thats if he is not using their networks to post here at SP - in which case the CID might give him a call).  In the end - he is perfectly willing to loose fighter pilots and have a ground war start instead of listening to any argument to the contrary.


Softwar,

It's sad that you and Herald are incapable of having a debate based on facts rather than your politics. The fact is that neither of you are capable of making your case and are showing a complete misunderstanding of the subject matter altogether. Softwar, your reference to CID is simply laughable and indicative of how little you really understand. Neither of you are worth a single keystroke outside of you local fanclubs on this website. Again, I challenge you on facts. When you are actually capable of responding in kind and learn how to share an opinion without insulting your audience, then you will start to appreciate the benefit of a forum. Grow up. Try to be like Warpig, Phaid or GF. I'm sure both have different opinions compared to mine, but neither of them are diving into the realm of personal insults as both of you two are. Bluewings is absolutely right that some of you behave like clowns in the face of peers. Consider that. Especially Herald. You would think getting pimp slapped of the boards would have humbled him. Warpig was right. 

-DA 

 

 
 
 
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DarthAmerica       4/9/2009 1:11:39 PM












Darth, I agree with you that UCAVs are the future.  That's what is puzzling to me about your position.

 

We're busy investing a titanic amount of money in the F-35, while at the same time developing UCAVs that will probably make the F-35 redundant before the program is even completed.  On the other hand, we do need VLO airplanes now and for the next decade or so; UCAVs are simply not there yet for air to air and not really mature enough as a primary strike platform.

Phaid, my opinion is that we have enough air to air capable platforms to deal with any likely scenarios and that the need for them will decrease as conflicts continue to be more biased towards rogue states and non-state actors. I disagree about not mature enough for primary strike though. I agree that some work has to be done with regard to CAS however.
 

It makes a lot more financial sense to procure a sufficient number of F-22s to perform the air to air and high threat strike missions, and recapitalize the bulk of our tactical jet fleet with inexpensive updated-4th-gen airframes, than to invest in a 5th generation platform that will be obsolete as soon as it enters service in numbers.

I disagree here as well. THe F-35 will not be obsolete IMHO. It will also be a hell of a lot cheaper in the long run than recapitalizing the bulk of the TACAIR fleet as well. IIRC turning TOMCATs to BOMBCATs cost ~2.5-3 billion for just 210 planes and that was really not even as extensive. I also think not going F-35 hurts our preferred method of coalition warfare and would have disastrous consequences for our defense industry. An F-35 is many times more effective in it's role compared to legacy platforms.

 -DA
 
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Herald12345    And that last reply is the icing on the cake.   4/9/2009 1:24:44 PM
Appeal to the crowd and character assassination its called when the shouter has no facts to rebut the plain stated case on its merits.
 
I do have to correct you on a couple of points, SW. When a properly designed ballistic missile decouples from its ground support cables it is a self contained robot that flies on its internal guidance. Some of them will have guidance updating mid-phase or will read radio-location beacons to correct for drift error as they debus their RVs, but most don't.
 
There is thus no antenna vulnerability to exploit to misdirect such a war rocket. To may knowledge there is no EW way to spoof such a self-contained weapon within the Earth's atmosphere.
 
Guided missiles are another story.

In  addition to other science fiction things we must be careful about when we make assumptions and declare things, we don't exactly burn missiles out of the air as much as we exploit information paths that the enemy builds in his missiles to disable them. We've done this as spoofing for a long time with self protection jammers and other active countermeasures, but now we can build it into the radar which has the power at last to do more than just spoof. We can cook pilots at range, if the enemy aircraft isn't radio opaque for example. 
 
But remember there has to be an exploit path. Mister Faraday is very much still with us.  

Herald
 
 
   
 
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