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Subject: FYI: Syrian MIG-31E
DarthAmerica    3/30/2009 3:03:57 PM
DiD is reporting that this aircraft, 5, are being delivered to the Syrians. It also says a MIG-29 variant closely matching the specifications of the MIG-35 offered to India are being sold as well. Any thoughts on how these aircraft change the dynamic of Syrian Airforce capabilities? -DA
 
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JFKY    A mini-AWACS is fine...   4/2/2009 10:41:55 AM
As long as it's operating when you need it.  5 A/c, assume 80% available, equals 4 a/c...meaning each a/c has to fly 6 hours per say to provide 24/7 coverage, or 2,190 flight hours per year.  Assuming 25 man/hours of maintenance per flight hour, you get 600 man days of labour for the entire force, per year...that's a big cost for Syria....
 
Sure, during an "emergency" they might try it...but was the last strike made during an "emergency?"  If the Israelis don't telegraph their intentions, how will the Syrians know when to post 24/7 Mini-AWACS coverage?
 
What if a Jericho missile hits the runway of the Syrian air field, in a bolt out of the blue attack, shutting down flight operations for even an hour, what could the IAF do?
 
I'm going with the "pride" thing as much as any real military value from the purchase, ASSUMING it happens at all.
 
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Softwar       4/2/2009 11:28:06 AM
The AWACS theory simply does not hold up in terms of availability or costs.  It would be far cheaper for the Syrians to purchase the Chinese Balance Beam or a similar system to perform AWACS duty.  The Balance Beam would also be more effective since a small force on rotation could give good coverage 365 days a year.  One only has to compare the maintenence and availability of flying a Y-7 to that of a MiG-31 - and you can see that the interceptor is designed for... well intercepting.
 
The Iranian F-14s were pressed into an AWACS duty by sheer necessity.  A Syrian fleet of MiG-31s doing such duty would be in an even worse situation seeing as how close they are located to Israel.
 
I agree on the pride issue but question their choice on pure capability.  Although, this might be a bone intended to keep MiG alive - considering that its current sales are nearly zero. 
 
The Syrians would be better off with SU-27s than MiG-31s - even a small force to start out with.  The MiG-31 is not well suited to counter the prospective opponents (e.g. USA or Israel).  The payload and range of the jet makes it far better off protecting Siberia in a long range strategic patrol than flying CAP over Syria.  Its an interceptor not a dog fighter.
 
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VelocityVector       4/2/2009 2:45:17 PM

I agree the -31 for Syrian awacs duty is like trying to jam a size 11 foot into a size 9 shoe in most respects.  However it addresses two key parameters from the Syrian requirements point of view.  One, the -31 is designed to search large volumes of air at long range.  Two, it's rapidly relocatable and survivable due to its acceleration at altitude.  This complicates Israeli planning because a -31 is the one Syrian surveillance asset that might appear anywhere along the axis of attack and with little warning.  Unlike a true awacs that flies racetracks and can be skirted.  Obviously there are severe limitations with employing a mere 1-5 a/c for mini-awacs duty; but the Iranian experience, born from desperation, teaches that an interceptor equipped with a powerful radar does have the potential to disrupt raids and communicate information to other defense assets without being easily mitigated.  It's my belief that if the Syrians were only dick-waving that they would have purchased new rockets, not interceptors.  Sorry if I appear obstinate - I have no dog in this fight.

v^2

 
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Herald12345    Problem.   4/2/2009 3:38:45 PM

I agree the -31 for Syrian awacs duty is like trying to jam a size 11 foot into a size 9 shoe in most respects.  However it addresses two key parameters from the Syrian requirements point of view.  One, the -31 is designed to search large volumes of air at long range.  Two, it's rapidly relocatable and survivable due to its acceleration at altitude.  This complicates Israeli planning because a -31 is the one Syrian surveillance asset that might appear anywhere along the axis of attack and with little warning.  Unlike a true awacs that flies racetracks and can be skirted.  Obviously there are severe limitations with employing a mere 1-5 a/c for mini-awacs duty; but the Iranian experience, born from desperation, teaches that an interceptor equipped with a powerful radar does have the potential to disrupt raids and communicate information to other defense assets without being easily mitigated.  It's my belief that if the Syrians were only dick-waving that they would have purchased new rockets, not interceptors.  Sorry if I appear obstinate - I have no dog in this fight.


v^2


Fuel. Depending on loadouts and velocities that big radar return barn door can spend anywhere from 100-160 minutes in the air before it needs to land. It will have to spiral climb slowly to altitude, because Syria isn't that big, the MiG doesn't turn that well, and you run out of room at Mach 2 in a big hurry. An Eagle can just catch and rocket kill it in a chase on after burner. The Eagle and the Foxhound  are not that far apart dash performance wise. The Eagle with her better engines will run that Foxhound into a reheat sprintrace that will slag the Russian bird's engines and send the Foxhound pilot punching out or on a one way trip straight down into the Jabal an Nusayriyah mountains.

I really don't see the -31 as being an AWACs substitute. Its more likely to either be a prestige purchase, a plane to be taken apart for others to study, or as a surprise striker.
 
The last option only makes sense with KH 31 (AS-17 Krypton) and KH-58 (AS-11 Kilter) air to surface missiles. Remember rockets don't care what they are supposed to hit, They are only there for the interval between the launch and the kaboom.. If I were Israel I would ask my spies to see what the Russians send with the birds as an armament fit. That will tell the IDF what the Syrians think they're doing.

Herald
 
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VelocityVector    Herald   4/2/2009 4:47:47 PM

Valid points and interesting speculation as to ASM.  You'd think the Syrians would buy Sukhoi for naval or ground attack.

In a prior post I suggested the -31s may carry external fuel and acknowledged they could not be used for persistent surveillance. They are wrong for the awacs job and for Syrian geography except as to radar coverage, which the Syrians need to plug and they can't do it from the ground alone.

I doubt Israeli F-15s would leave their package to chase fleeing -31s.  It would expose them too much assuming the -31s could turn away in the first place. 

I'll give this thread a rest for now.  We'll see what, if anything, actually develops.  Thank you for your reply, it's good to see you here.

v^2

 
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Herald12345    Thank you very much.    4/2/2009 4:57:28 PM
Herald
 
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DarthAmerica       4/2/2009 5:46:29 PM

The Syrians would be better off with SU-27s than MiG-31s - even a small force to start out with.  The MiG-31 is not well suited to counter the prospective opponents (e.g. USA or Israel).  The payload and range of the jet makes it far better off protecting Siberia in a long range strategic patrol than flying CAP over Syria.  Its an interceptor not a dog fighter.

Softwar,

But would you not agree that intercepting had been the problem for the Syrians? Besides if they need a good counter air fighter with good dogfight performance the Mig-29/35 would seem to fit that role a little easier than either the Su or the 31. The latest Su's are more multirole oriented and as I understand have weight issues that have to be considered when dogfighting in close.

-DA 
 
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warpig       4/2/2009 6:11:54 PM
This story has gone nowhere since it first broke back in the summer of 2007.  DIA was just repeating the OSINT from 2007, they didn't add anything to it.  Yes, the sale could certainly happen someday, maybe even tomorrow, possibly (but seemingly improbably) it has already happened, but I'll believe it when I see it.
 
The Syrians know full well they can't hope to match the Israelis in the air, and they certainly know acquiring a handful of MiG-31s and MiG-29Ms won't change that.  I suggest the Syrians are still looking for some capability at defending their airspace during peacetime from incursions like the Israeli reactor raid in October 2007 and like the periodic UAV overflights that the Syrians can never seem to find much less stop.  The rudimentary communications connectivity ('mini-AWACS") that MiG-31s share with other MiG-31s, with A-50 MAINSTAYs, and with properly-equipped GCI sites won't provide any useful capability to Syria.  They probably hope that the reasonably effective radars on some MiG-31s and MiG-29Ms will be a step up from the reasonably ineffective radars on their decrepit MiG-29s, MiG-25s, MiG-23s, and MiG-21s that currently can't seem to keep Syrian airspace secure for sh!t.  Sadly for them, regardless of what moderately effective jets they buy, it won't change much of anything for them because the main limiting factor remains in place.  The Syrian Air Force will become effective only after they manage to put some effective pilots in the c0ckpits.  They'd be better off buying one less MiG-29M and putting that $20million (or whatever) into Russian or Ukrainian pilots to fill the jets.
 
 
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earlm       4/2/2009 9:46:15 PM
With only 5 planes to be purchased they will probably have one in the hangar and 4 on the tarmac in alert waiting to hit an inbound or returning Israeli strike on Iranian nukes.
 
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smitty237    Maybe we're missing something   4/3/2009 3:01:39 AM
I think most of us are on the same sheet of music in the belief that the acquisition of five MiG-31s will have a negligible effect on Syria's ability to take on the Israelis, whether they're being used as a makeshift AWACS platform or as an interceptor, but after reading a couple of comments something occurred to me.  I think the Syrians are fully aware that are incapable of defeating the IAF.  To compensate for this the Syrians may be trying to win the battle not in the air over the Golan Heights or Damascus, but in the Arab street.  Downing even a single Israeli F-15 or F-16 would be considered a victory in the Syria and the rest of the Arab world regardless of Syrian losses, and a captured Israeli pilot would be exploited for maximum media converage. 
 
The scenario of  Syrian MiG-31s attacking Israeli jets returning to Israel through Syrian airspace from a strike on Iran is an interesting one.  The Syrians could justifiably claim that they were protecting their airspace from hostile Israeli jets, and if they actually managed to down a couple of IAF fighter bombers Syria's stock would rise in the Arab (and anti-Israel) world.  Maybe this has nothing to do with victory, but more to do with actually scoring a punch. 
 
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