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Subject: FYI: Syrian MIG-31E
DarthAmerica    3/30/2009 3:03:57 PM
DiD is reporting that this aircraft, 5, are being delivered to the Syrians. It also says a MIG-29 variant closely matching the specifications of the MIG-35 offered to India are being sold as well. Any thoughts on how these aircraft change the dynamic of Syrian Airforce capabilities?

-DA
 
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DarthAmerica       4/3/2009 3:23:36 PM

Where your analogy goes off the rails a bit is because the Israelis only operate with an ROE where there is a risk to civilians--in other words, against Hamas or Hezbollah.  The Syrian Air Force doesn't count.  The Heyl Ha'avir has no problem with obliterating a MiG-31 at 26 miles or so with an AMRAAM, whether or not they can visually identify or not.  They also don't have a problem with sending some aircraft over to wreck a Syrian airbase or loft Tomahawks into it.  The Israelis really don't give a damn what the rest of the world thinks, and so ROE has no effect on them in a war situation with Syria.  A handful of MiG-31s are not going to do the damage of a handful of MiG-21s, simply because the Israelis won't tie their hands behind their backs before the war starts.  The Foxhounds will be lucky to get to cruise altitude before they're jumped by F-15s and F-16s, and the MiG-31 is no dogfighter--unlike the MiG-21, which is a damn fine dogfighter in the hands of a good pilot like Nguyen Van Coc.  And even he got shot down during Bolo. 

Here is where I disagree. The IDF is almost constantly operating under restrictive ROE and political constraints. This is why the Iranian nuclear program hasn't been attacked. Why Lebanon harbors vicious terrorist and why we are still arguing over a "Two State Solution". I'm not saying that is any guarantee of safety for Mig crews on the ground in Syria, but in the case of Israeli peacetime penetrations into Syria, you can bet they wont be "bombing" Syrian airbases as they would in a full blown war.

Also, I'm not sure why dogfights with F-15/16 keep coming up. The engagement scenarios I'm discussing involve quite literally "catching" F-teens at times when 

a. they are surprised
b. are in a position of disadvantage

Such as returning to Israel on egress. They may not have the fuel to run, fight or take evasive action if caught by the Mig. Nor can support aircraft be moved in closer to support them with that Mig in the area unless Israel is willing to initiate massive escalation. Something the politicians may not want to do. The Mig doesn't necessarily have to chase the F-Teen, HVA or UAV over Israel, It can engage from Syria proper in some cases. I'm not suggesting Syria take on the IDF/AF with a handful of Mig-31s. Just that they use the unique performance and BVR weapons to inflict mission kills or actual shoot downs of IDF/AF aircraft while in vulnerable states. Even a small child can kill if he/she catches you unaware or unable to fight back. In an all out war things change. But all out wars are the exception not the rule.

-DA 
 
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Herald12345       4/3/2009 3:38:19 PM
 
 
 
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Softwar       4/3/2009 3:42:20 PM
Why bother with something that is:
 
1 - not supported by an active production base
2 - has never been exported and require support that exceeds local technical capaiblity
3 - is unable to provide adquate defense even for itself
4 - would be pressed into a role ill-suited for its design in order to perform a useful mission
 
Why not buy something useful?
 
Sure you *COULD* use it in the roles outlined but why bother jury-rigging a patch-up when off the self, supported by active productin, easy to work on, very capable and versitile aircraft are available from the same supplier - namely Russia?
 
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JFKY    Darth   4/3/2009 3:43:19 PM
There's a problem with your scenario...Yes, the MiG-31's might catch the strike package COMING FROM Iran, low on fuel...that ignores the MiGCAP FROM ISRAEL blasting them out of the sky...or a HAWK or a Patriot, from Israel.  The Israelis will know when, and therefore most likely WHERE their a/c are...meaning that they can scramble their MiGCAP from Israel to catch the Syrians trying to find the strike package.
 
Now mayhaps, Israel won't lob any Jerichos or the like at Syrian Air bases, but I don't think there's anything to prevent them from launching air sorties into Syria.  The whole Israeli  Air Force isn't bombing Iran, only a strike package of it is....the remainder can wait on the ground and respond to the Syrians.
 
Because the Syrians, if all goes well, won't know that there is a problem UNTIL the bombs start going off in Iran.  And then all they are going to know is that SOMEONE hit Iran, they won't know WHO and from what direction they came until much later. So all the Syrians can do is scramble and orbit, making themselves vulnerable to a squeeze play from Israel.  It's possible that the Syrians won't see them on the return, or if they do, the Israelis can probably see that as well, and then act.
 
Bottom-Line: 5 A/c, piloted by Syrians aren't going to be a threat to multiple F-15's and F-16's, coming back from Iran or coming from Israel.  Your scenario ignores Israeli forces and grants the Syrians too much information (That they will know about the strike or anyhting about ingress or egress routes or even who launched the strike.  All they are going to see is lotsa smoke, and flashes on CNN).
 
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gf0012-aust       4/3/2009 3:50:11 PM
Also, I'm not sure why dogfights with F-15/16 keep coming up. The engagement scenarios I'm discussing involve quite literally "catching" F-teens at times when 

a. they are surprised
b. are in a position of disadvantage

Such as returning to Israel on egress. They may not have the fuel to run, fight or take evasive action if caught by the Mig.

I'm  not convinced that a lurking intercept is going to work either.  Every arabic owner of a Mig25 has tried to use them for that purpose (using the same philosophy as the soviets tried with the SR-71 overflights).  Granted the soviets could never vector onto the blackbirds due to the sheer speed advantage of that aircraft - but they still tried ribbon feeding intercepts.

the israelis have got far better organic ewarfare and ECM and they've done previous ferrets with their own version of a weasel as part of the strike package.

the syrians are hoping for a "golden bb".  But, it's the wrong outfit trying to take on a better outfit and hoping that they manage to get a lucky one "in" if it comes to pass.
 
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DarthAmerica       4/3/2009 4:13:07 PM

There's a problem with your scenario...Yes, the MiG-31's might catch the strike package COMING FROM Iran, low on fuel...that ignores the MiGCAP FROM ISRAEL blasting them out of the sky...or a HAWK or a Patriot, from Israel.  The Israelis will know when, and therefore most likely WHERE their a/c are...meaning that they can scramble their MiGCAP from Israel to catch the Syrians trying to find the strike package.
No, it doesn't ignore it. The range and speed of the Mig allow for it to position itself in position of advantage at the time of it's choosing. Also, I'm not sure why you are saying coming from Iran. Israeli a/c have entered Syrian airspace from many different directions. The problem is that when you are penetrating hostile airspace, you go in with the fuel you have. How you come out can be quite limited by that making planning for an intercept a lot easier. Remember, the Mig has the advantage of range and speed.
 

Now mayhaps, Israel won't lob any Jerichos or the like at Syrian Air bases, but I don't think there's anything to prevent them from launching air sorties into Syria.  The whole Israeli  Air Force isn't bombing Iran, only a strike package of it is....the remainder can wait on the ground and respond to the Syrians.

 Jerichos. Thats way too extreme for routine back and forth Syria vs Israel disputes. What prevents them are the constraints of the mission. On any given day, the Israeli's aren't launching an all out war on Syria. It can be something as minor as a supersonic pass over Assad's house to striking secret weapons facility. The Migs can complicate that.

Because the Syrians, if all goes well, won't know that there is a problem UNTIL the bombs start going off in Iran.  And then all they are going to know is that SOMEONE hit Iran, they won't know WHO and from what direction they came until much later. So all the Syrians can do is scramble and orbit, making themselves vulnerable to a squeeze play from Israel.  It's possible that the Syrians won't see them on the return, or if they do, the Israelis can probably see that as well, and then act.

A lot of people died under the assumption of all going well. Including Capt Speicher to a Mig-25 ironically. These Arab militaries do value propaganda victories as a part of grand strategy. You can't assume Israeli superiority.

Bottom-Line: 5 A/c, piloted by Syrians aren't going to be a threat to multiple F-15's and F-16's, coming back from Iran or coming from Israel.  Your scenario ignores Israeli forces and grants the Syrians too much information (That they will know about the strike or anyhting about ingress or egress routes or even who launched the strike.  All they are going to see is lotsa smoke, and flashes on CNN).

Those assumptions above are false. Any IDF/AF pilot would tell you these Migs are a potential threat that have to be accounted for. If you are low on gas, after an hours long mission and you RWR starts squawking because a Mig you thought wasn't there is suddenly guiding BVR weapons at your formation, you better believe that's something pilots would worry about.

Like GF said, it's a hail marry play. A lot would depend on luck. But sometimes that's all you have. And in this case, at a minimum, it causes the Israeli's to have to modify their planning. This is a dangerous interceptor. If properly integrated into the Syrian IAD, it can inflict casualties that otherwise would not be possible.

-DA 
 
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Herald12345       4/3/2009 5:02:01 PM




Also, I'm not sure why dogfights with F-15/16 keep coming up. The engagement scenarios I'm discussing involve quite literally "catching" F-teens at times when 




a. they are surprised
b. are in a position of disadvantage




Such as returning to Israel on egress. They may not have the fuel to run, fight or take evasive action if caught by the Mig.



I'm  not convinced that a lurking intercept is going to work either.  Every arabic owner of a Mig25 has tried to use them for that purpose (using the same philosophy as the soviets tried with the SR-71 overflights).  Granted the soviets could never vector onto the blackbirds due to the sheer speed advantage of that aircraft - but they still tried ribbon feeding intercepts.




the israelis have got far better organic ewarfare and ECM and they've done previous ferrets with their own version of a weasel as part of the strike package.




the syrians are hoping for a "golden bb".  But, it's the wrong outfit trying to take on a better outfit and hoping that they manage to get a lucky one "in" if it comes to pass.


1. Any Syrian ambush of an Israeli Iranian raid is going to have to exit Syrian  airspace. Since returning Israelis have the option of crossing Jordan and Iraq to get home, how do the Syrians get involved where they won't tangle with US Jordanian or Israeli air forces?
 
2, Armies and navies aren't the only ones who know about over-watch and close and distant cover forces. A returning strike package will have an alert five force ready to cover its return the minute the MiGs start their  ponderous climbs to altitude. As noted, the EAGLE AMRAAM  combination is good enough to kill a MiG 31 through 85%  of its performance envelop. The remaining 15% is a guaranteed loss of aircraft trying to escape from a chasing EAGLE.
 
3. Those Tumansky engines are fuel hogs. FOXHOUNDS, at least the Syrian ones won't have air to air refueling. They will be run out of gas, won't have fighting room, and outpositioned, before they can ever set up their chase shot withn their less than impressive A2A missiles. 
 
That's enough for now. I have to eat dinner and then get back to work.
 
Herald
 

 

 
 
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VelocityVector       4/3/2009 9:25:03 PM

I'll expose my crack.  The SO is on the road escaping despite we're dealing with bad news mammograms.  Steam-valve releases here again.

1. US/Jordanian forces will stay on the sideline, if for no other reasons than those arising from politics and deconfliction.

2. Target the afterwatch in addition to the strike package; Israelis aren't the only ones who appreciate decoy tactics; more shots to take -- improved -31 can actively transmit "lock" to F-15i before the latter locks the former actively.

3. Russia has tweaked -31 to increase range and improve subsonic characteristics.  The original motivation was to hike gun efficiency on big slow leakers at altitude/slow speed.  With Syria, home to many apparently happy Russian visa card holders given my anecdotal information, the Russians would have a cool laboratory which expands their geopolitical influence and more importantly their information collection.  May as well try something, Syria; russia so very happy to help.

Neither F-4 nor f-105 straightline designs were suited tdo their Vietnam roles on paper, however, they were practically effective once employed after study and adjustment.  0.02

v^2
 
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sentinel28a       4/4/2009 1:25:22 AM
I don't know how eager the Syrians are to be Russian guinea pigs.  The last time they tried that, they lost 82 MiGs.
 
The other assumption is that Syria's going to attack Israel if Israel attacks Iran.  Assad doesn't share the mullahs' millennialist ideas; he wants to live.  Sure, he could place a couple of Foxhounds astride the egress route (though it's quite possible that the Israelis will either be flying over Jordanian/Iraqi airspace, or over the top through Turkey), but even if the Syrians get a few kills, all that's going to do is piss the Israelis off more.  Nothing saying that the IDF can't launch a strike against Syria--specifically, Damascus in a decapitation strike--once the Iranian raid force gets home, rests, and rearms.  The IDF did it in '67; they could do it now as well.  So the question is: how far is Assad willing to stick his butt out for his "allies" in Iran?
 
Another question is, would the Syrian Foxhounds orbit inside their own airspace and take some very iffy, long-range potshots at the IDF strikers, or would they invade Jordanian or Iraqi airspace?  The Jordanians aren't reluctant to gun down Syrians who violate their airspace (they've done it before), and entering Iraqi airspace means taking on the USAF.
 
 
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Shirrush    No Syrian MIG-31E?   5/20/2009 1:21:41 PM
Hello. Here I am ressuscitating, Jastayme3-style, a long-forgotten thread, since this matter is making headlines again with a new development.
Yesss, I do know that Debka.com is supposed to be the National Enquirer of military and strategic affairs, but this here story of theirs doesn't seem too unlikely for a change, does it?
Syria certainly cannot afford this US$ 1B deal, and Iran is getting cold feet as the oil prices remain, uh, reasonable.
An angle that debka has probably overlooked is that this lavish funding of the much-despised Ay-rabs by the Mullah regime is quite unpopular in the Iranian polity, and that Ahmadinutjob should rather sit on his wallet until he is sure he got reelected.  
 
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warpig       5/21/2009 4:05:15 PM

Hello. Here I am ressuscitating, Jastayme3-style, a long-forgotten thread, since this matter is making headlines again with a new development.

Yesss, I do know that Debka.com is supposed to be the National Enquirer of military and strategic affairs, but this here story of theirs doesn't seem too unlikely for a change, does it?

Syria certainly cannot afford this US$ 1B deal, and Iran is getting cold feet as the oil prices remain, uh, reasonable.

An angle that debka has probably overlooked is that this lavish funding of the much-despised Ay-rabs by the Mullah regime is quite unpopular in the Iranian polity, and that Ahmadinutjob should rather sit on his wallet until he is sure he got reelected.  




 
 
And the return volley:
 
RSK MiG Representative: A Contract for the Delivery of MiG-31 Fighters to Syria Does not Exist

Russia has not signed a contract for the delivery to Syria of MiG-31Eh (export) fighter interceptors, an official representative of the Russian Airplane Building Corporation (RSK) MiG declared.

"A contract for the delivery to Syrian of MiG-31 fighter interceptors has not been signed. Such a contract simply does not exist. ((*)) The media entered into this contract in 2007, and it was they who canceled it in 2009," the RSK MiG representative told Interfax-AVN on Wednesday.

A number of media has reported earlier that Russia had broken the contract for the delivery to Syria of eight MiG-31Eh fighter interceptors.

((* - The Russian used here is V PRIRODE. In the headline it is SUSHCHESTVUET V PRIRODE. The use of V PRIRODE can add the sense of "in principle" to the translation.))

Source: 20.05.09, Interfax
 
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