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Subject: FYI: Syrian MIG-31E
DarthAmerica    3/30/2009 3:03:57 PM
DiD is reporting that this aircraft, 5, are being delivered to the Syrians. It also says a MIG-29 variant closely matching the specifications of the MIG-35 offered to India are being sold as well. Any thoughts on how these aircraft change the dynamic of Syrian Airforce capabilities?

-DA
 
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gf0012-aust       4/1/2009 9:13:17 PM
i'm tending to think its a far more simple issue.

ie, the syrians  had to wear it on the chin when the israelis smacked their nuke site with impunity.  I'm guessing what they're hoping is that if there is a next time, and if they can detect them, they think that at least they can get some interceptors up in time.

that doesn't address the fact that as the israelis managed to enter their airspace, violate their pride, destroy their facilities etc...  they they (syrians) have probably got two chances of getting a response off and get a result.

it's a dignity recovery purchase, and in real terms a WOFTAM
 
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Herald12345    Thanks one and all.   4/1/2009 9:16:44 PM
I find it somewhat amazing that I was missed.  Maybe I do have a positive impact?
 
But anyway the topic is the MiG 31. Even if the report is spurious, what can Iran do with five to eight MiG 31s?
 
Let's speculate.  Iran operated the F-14 Tomcat. The MiG 31M is somewhat similar in operational concept and electronic fit. Now what do I need to reverse engineer such an aircraft? I woul;d want electroniics that could be within my tech reach with either a supplier or native resources. Russian tech, which I never sneer at, is just about within reach of a nation that can build 1980 era computers.
 
Its a wild idea, biut Syria to Iran to PRCs is possible.
 
Herald
 
 
 
 
   
 
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DarthAmerica       4/1/2009 9:16:56 PM
Sentinel,

Let me ask you a follow up question. Do you think it makes a difference if you are a  pilot in transit ~200km off the cost of Syria and the Syrian CAP consist of 2 Mig-23/29 or  a single Mig-31? The difference is you may not be in any danger from the smaller Migs. But the Mig-31 can if so ordered chase you down and make the attempt to kill you.

-DA 
 
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DarthAmerica       4/1/2009 9:19:06 PM

I find it somewhat amazing that I was missed.  Maybe I do have a positive impact?

But anyway the topic is the MiG 31. Even if the report is spurious, what can Iran do with five to eight MiG 31s?

Let's speculate.  Iran operated the F-14 Tomcat. The MiG 31M is somewhat similar in operational concept and electronic fit. Now what do I need to reverse engineer such an aircraft? I woul;d want electroniics that could be within my tech reach with either a supplier or native resources. Russian tech, which I never sneer at, is just about within reach of a nation that can build 1980 era computers.

Its a wild idea, biut Syria to Iran to PRCs is possible.

Herald


 

 Herald I just want to say I'm glad you are back.


Regards
-DA 

 

 

   



 
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EvilFishy       4/1/2009 10:51:14 PM

I find it somewhat amazing that I was missed.  Maybe I do have a positive impact?
 

More than you know Herald.  Welcome back.

 
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Herald12345    Thanks EF.   4/2/2009 12:54:02 AM




I find it somewhat amazing that I was missed.  Maybe I do have a positive impact?

 




More than you know Herald.  Welcome back.




Herald
 
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smitty237    Desperation?   4/2/2009 1:15:47 AM
Welcome back, Herald.
 
This seems to almost be a desperation purchase since I can't imagine they would have much of an impact.  If memory serves, the MiG-25 was originally designed to chase down the XB-70 Valkrie supersonic bomber.  The XB-70 didn't make into full scale production, but the Russkies continued on with the MiG-25.  The MiG-25, with Mach 3 speed, became the USSR's answer to the SR-71, and in the early 1970's it was flying high speed/high altitude spy missions over Israel that were invulnerable to Israeli (or American, for that matter) F-4 Phantoms.  The MiG-25 concerned American military planners so much that they pushed hard for a high tech replacement for the F-4, which turned out to be the F-15 Eagle.  When a Russian pilot defected to Japan in 1976 with an interceptor version of the MiG-25, military analysts found out that the MiG-25 was nearly as advanced as they had originally thought, that it was not really designed to be flown at Mach 3 for any length of time, and probably wasn't a very impressive fighter at low speed. 
 
The MiG-31 is a development of the MiG-25, but with reduced air performance and better electronics.  It could still fly at Mach 2+ speed, but the focus now was to make it a better interceptor and ECM aircraft.  It makes sense that the Syrians may be using it as an ECM aircraft or a makeshift AWACS platform, but as one poster already stated, a lot of work and additional purchases would be necessary to make it usable in this role.  I would have to imagine that there are better aircraft out there, such as the IL-76, that would do this job much better.  The Syrians got seriously embarassed by the IAF a few years ago when the Israelis destroyed a Syrian nuclear facility with seemingly no response from the Syrian Air Force.  Maybe Assad thinks that the MiG-31s will give him more of an edge if the Israelis strike again, but I'm afraid he is only fooling himself. 
 
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YelliChink       4/2/2009 3:10:51 AM
Herald made a good point comparing Iranian F-14 employment during Iran-Iraq wars. Their AIM-54 missiles were useless, but they some how made good use of AWG-9. We can only expect that Syrian AF would use MIG-31 much the same way as Iranians did, plus R-37 or R-33 missiles they have will be functional.
 
That would put some pressure on IDF/AF since the mere presence of MIG-31 in the air will complicate their operation. Operations such as the one they carried out in 2006 may be jeopardized by MIG-31 with R-37.
 
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gf0012-aust       4/2/2009 3:31:07 AM
this could be out of date, but the Syrians already had Mig25's which never managed to do anything against tyhe Israelis a few years back:
7 Squadron MiG-25PD/PU/RB
1 Squadron MiG-25PD/PU/RB
5 Squadron MiG-25PD/PU/RB
link ">

so, nominally 4 squadrons of Mig25's didn't get to defend airspace even effectively.  that would indicate that they couldn't detect early enough (or at all).

so unless they've had a quantum leap in airspace management - those Mig31's would need to be virtually on constant CAP to see anything - and then they'd have to be in the right spots anyway.

"pride queens" methinks.... 
 
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DarthAmerica       4/2/2009 10:08:19 AM

this could be out of date, but the Syrians already had Mig25's which never managed to do anything against tyhe Israelis a few years back:link ">link ">link ">







7 Squadron MiG-25PD/PU/RB


link ">











1 Squadron MiG-25PD/PU/RB
5 Squadron MiG-25PD/PU/RB


link ">





so, nominally 4 squadrons of Mig25's didn't get to defend airspace even effectively.  that would indicate that they couldn't detect early enough (or at all).




so unless they've had a quantum leap in airspace management - those Mig31's would need to be virtually on constant CAP to see anything - and then they'd have to be in the right spots anyway.




"pride queens" methinks.... 







What if the intent isn't complete coverage but rather specific airspace during times of emergency or even to cover the final leg of egress routes since the Syrian AF knows where the planes will ultimately be returning to...


THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 06, 2007 
23:28 MECCA TIME, 20:28 GMT
 
Israel 'violates Syrian airspace'
Israel and Syria are technically still in a state of war 
[File: Reuters]
Syrian air defences have opened fire on Israeli aircraft after they violated the country's airspace in a "flagrant and agressive act," a Syrian military spokesman has said.
 
The Israeli jets "dropped ammunition" over deserted areas of northern Syria early on Thursday, a spokesman told the official Syrian Arab News Agency (Sana).
Israeli radio, quoting unidentified military sources, said Israel did not carry out an air attack on Syria.
 
"This event never happened," Israeli radio said, quoting an unidentified military spokesman.
Jacky Rowland, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Jerusalem, said: "All that Israel has said is that it did not carry out a military attack against Syria."
 
She said: "This has been a summer of heightening tensions between Israel and Syria, certainly in terms of rhetoric and talk ... this flurry of allegations and denials won't have helped."
 
Intrusion claim
 
A Syrian army spokesman told the official Sana news agency: "Enemy Israeli planes penetrated Syrian air space from the Mediterranean Sea heading towards the northeast, breaking the sound barrier."
 
He said: "Our air defences forced them to leave ... without causing human or material loss."
 

"What are they going to do with about $30m of armaments except attack neighbouring countries?"

Buthayaa Shaaban, 
Syrian government minister

"We warn the Israeli enemy government against this flagrant aggressive act, and retain the right to respond in an appropriate way," he said.
 
"Air defence units confronted them and forced them to leave after they dropped some ammunition in deserted areas without causing any human or material damage."
 
But asked by Al Jazeera if the Israeli jets had attacked targets in Syria, Buthayaa Shaaban, a Syrian government minister, would only confirm that the Israelis "intervened in our airspace".
 
She said: "The Israeli aeroplanes went into our airspace at night on our northern borders and this is not really surprising. What are they going to do with about $30m of armaments except attack neighbouring countries?"
 
She said that Syria was still looking into the "ammunition" that the Israeli jets are alleged to have dropped.
 
Long hostilities
 
At the beginning of last summer's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli aircraft flew over the palace of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, in what analysts called a warning to Damascus.
 
In June of the same year, Israeli jets also flew over al-Assad's summer home in the coastal city of Latakia, after Syrian-backed Palestinian fighters in Gaza captured a young Israeli soldier.
 
Syria and Israel remain technically at a state of war.
 
Peace talks broke down in 2000 over the fate of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

 
 
-DA
 
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JFKY    A mini-AWACS is fine...   4/2/2009 10:41:55 AM
As long as it's operating when you need it.  5 A/c, assume 80% available, equals 4 a/c...meaning each a/c has to fly 6 hours per say to provide 24/7 coverage, or 2,190 flight hours per year.  Assuming 25 man/hours of maintenance per flight hour, you get 600 man days of labour for the entire force, per year...that's a big cost for Syria....
 
Sure, during an "emergency" they might try it...but was the last strike made during an "emergency?"  If the Israelis don't telegraph their intentions, how will the Syrians know when to post 24/7 Mini-AWACS coverage?
 
What if a Jericho missile hits the runway of the Syrian air field, in a bolt out of the blue attack, shutting down flight operations for even an hour, what could the IAF do?
 
I'm going with the "pride" thing as much as any real military value from the purchase, ASSUMING it happens at all.
 
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Softwar       4/2/2009 11:28:06 AM
The AWACS theory simply does not hold up in terms of availability or costs.  It would be far cheaper for the Syrians to purchase the Chinese Balance Beam or a similar system to perform AWACS duty.  The Balance Beam would also be more effective since a small force on rotation could give good coverage 365 days a year.  One only has to compare the maintenence and availability of flying a Y-7 to that of a MiG-31 - and you can see that the interceptor is designed for... well intercepting.
 
The Iranian F-14s were pressed into an AWACS duty by sheer necessity.  A Syrian fleet of MiG-31s doing such duty would be in an even worse situation seeing as how close they are located to Israel.
 
I agree on the pride issue but question their choice on pure capability.  Although, this might be a bone intended to keep MiG alive - considering that its current sales are nearly zero. 
 
The Syrians would be better off with SU-27s than MiG-31s - even a small force to start out with.  The MiG-31 is not well suited to counter the prospective opponents (e.g. USA or Israel).  The payload and range of the jet makes it far better off protecting Siberia in a long range strategic patrol than flying CAP over Syria.  Its an interceptor not a dog fighter.
 
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VelocityVector       4/2/2009 2:45:17 PM

I agree the -31 for Syrian awacs duty is like trying to jam a size 11 foot into a size 9 shoe in most respects.  However it addresses two key parameters from the Syrian requirements point of view.  One, the -31 is designed to search large volumes of air at long range.  Two, it's rapidly relocatable and survivable due to its acceleration at altitude.  This complicates Israeli planning because a -31 is the one Syrian surveillance asset that might appear anywhere along the axis of attack and with little warning.  Unlike a true awacs that flies racetracks and can be skirted.  Obviously there are severe limitations with employing a mere 1-5 a/c for mini-awacs duty; but the Iranian experience, born from desperation, teaches that an interceptor equipped with a powerful radar does have the potential to disrupt raids and communicate information to other defense assets without being easily mitigated.  It's my belief that if the Syrians were only dick-waving that they would have purchased new rockets, not interceptors.  Sorry if I appear obstinate - I have no dog in this fight.

v^2

 
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Herald12345    Problem.   4/2/2009 3:38:45 PM

I agree the -31 for Syrian awacs duty is like trying to jam a size 11 foot into a size 9 shoe in most respects.  However it addresses two key parameters from the Syrian requirements point of view.  One, the -31 is designed to search large volumes of air at long range.  Two, it's rapidly relocatable and survivable due to its acceleration at altitude.  This complicates Israeli planning because a -31 is the one Syrian surveillance asset that might appear anywhere along the axis of attack and with little warning.  Unlike a true awacs that flies racetracks and can be skirted.  Obviously there are severe limitations with employing a mere 1-5 a/c for mini-awacs duty; but the Iranian experience, born from desperation, teaches that an interceptor equipped with a powerful radar does have the potential to disrupt raids and communicate information to other defense assets without being easily mitigated.  It's my belief that if the Syrians were only dick-waving that they would have purchased new rockets, not interceptors.  Sorry if I appear obstinate - I have no dog in this fight.


v^2


Fuel. Depending on loadouts and velocities that big radar return barn door can spend anywhere from 100-160 minutes in the air before it needs to land. It will have to spiral climb slowly to altitude, because Syria isn't that big, the MiG doesn't turn that well, and you run out of room at Mach 2 in a big hurry. An Eagle can just catch and rocket kill it in a chase on after burner. The Eagle and the Foxhound  are not that far apart dash performance wise. The Eagle with her better engines will run that Foxhound into a reheat sprintrace that will slag the Russian bird's engines and send the Foxhound pilot punching out or on a one way trip straight down into the Jabal an Nusayriyah mountains.

I really don't see the -31 as being an AWACs substitute. Its more likely to either be a prestige purchase, a plane to be taken apart for others to study, or as a surprise striker.
 
The last option only makes sense with KH 31 (AS-17 Krypton) and KH-58 (AS-11 Kilter) air to surface missiles. Remember rockets don't care what they are supposed to hit, They are only there for the interval between the launch and the kaboom.. If I were Israel I would ask my spies to see what the Russians send with the birds as an armament fit. That will tell the IDF what the Syrians think they're doing.

Herald
 
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VelocityVector    Herald   4/2/2009 4:47:47 PM

Valid points and interesting speculation as to ASM.  You'd think the Syrians would buy Sukhoi for naval or ground attack.

In a prior post I suggested the -31s may carry external fuel and acknowledged they could not be used for persistent surveillance. They are wrong for the awacs job and for Syrian geography except as to radar coverage, which the Syrians need to plug and they can't do it from the ground alone.

I doubt Israeli F-15s would leave their package to chase fleeing -31s.  It would expose them too much assuming the -31s could turn away in the first place. 

I'll give this thread a rest for now.  We'll see what, if anything, actually develops.  Thank you for your reply, it's good to see you here.

v^2

 
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