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Subject: FYI: Syrian MIG-31E
DarthAmerica    3/30/2009 3:03:57 PM
DiD is reporting that this aircraft, 5, are being delivered to the Syrians. It also says a MIG-29 variant closely matching the specifications of the MIG-35 offered to India are being sold as well. Any thoughts on how these aircraft change the dynamic of Syrian Airforce capabilities? -DA
 
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Softwar       3/31/2009 9:04:40 AM

There's a third possibility. A reason for purchasing such a limited number of high-altitude interceptors might be for ASAT work with a yet-undisclosed Russian weapon. The MiG-31 would be the best and most efficient ASAT "first stage" out there, and I think the Syrians are pretty convinced by now that they can't hide anything from Israeli space assets, and that they'd better do something about it if they want to go forward with their evil plans.


I am more inclined to agree with Sentinal28a - the report is a rehash of what was published in June 2007 - a result of the DIA Director making the suggestion during recent hearings.  MiG would love the sale - to boost its image and to provide badly needed cash before they go under - but I kinda doubt the Iranians would foot the bill with the present price of oil and their own economic distress.
 
As for ASAT - I suspect the Chinese DF-21 ASAT mod would be far better suited for a sale than the unproven MiG-31 ASAT which never went beyond the suggestion stage.  The PRC would not mind selling Syria the system and would - no doubt - give them a good price.
 
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DarthAmerica       3/31/2009 1:41:51 PM

I really don't see why a Foxhound would do much for Syria.  The MiG-31 is designed as a long-range interceptor, to guard Russia's very long borders against an American bomber stream or cruise missile attack.  Israel and Syria are so close together that by the time the Foxhounds get in the air, they may find themselves under Tomahawk attack or launching into a skyful of F-15s.  While the MiG-31 is a superb interceptor, possibly even the best in the world right now, it's no dogfighter.  A F-15 will eat it up.  The mini-AWACS thing I can buy, but why not just buy some A-50s from Russia?  And this is assuming the Russians haven't sold a downgraded MiG-31 to the Syrians--because you never know when some disgruntled Syrian pilot might decide to defect.

 

IMHO, this means one of two things:

 

1) The report is bullshit. 

2) The Syrians bought them because they look kewl, not because they'll be any more effective against the Israelis (given the generally low quality of Syrian pilots), and Bashir Assad is also trying to overcompensate.  He's got to have something he can use as prestige.  The latest Russian hardware is a good place to start, and the Russians have no problem proving to the Syrians PT Barnum's old adage about fools and their money.

 


As I said before, it's not going to give Syria any advantage in terms of ability to win the war. It will dramatically change the planning for air operations in the area. Remember, this aircraft has a very powerful sensor suite and can dash at supersonic speed farther than most small planes can fly on Mil Power in cruise setting. Pretty much the Capital cities of all Syria's neighbors are in range of this jet.

-DA 
 
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WarNerd       4/1/2009 5:49:20 AM

There's a third possibility. A reason for purchasing such a limited number of high-altitude interceptors might be for ASAT work with a yet-undisclosed Russian weapon. The MiG-31 would be the best and most efficient ASAT "first stage" out there, and I think the Syrians are pretty convinced by now that they can't hide anything from Israeli space assets, and that they'd better do something about it if they want to go forward with their evil plans.

As for ASAT - I suspect the Chinese DF-21 ASAT mod would be far better suited for a sale than the unproven MiG-31 ASAT which never went beyond the suggestion stage.  The PRC would not mind selling Syria the system and would - no doubt - give them a good price.

 Any sale of ASAT weaponry would be a major international incident, second only to the sale of a nuclear warhead.  It is unlikely that either Russia or China would risk it.
 
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Herald12345    Do they have the aircraft ;aunched rocket and the super computer to pull it off?   4/1/2009 8:05:46 AM

There's a third possibility. A reason for purchasing such a limited number of high-altitude interceptors might be for ASAT work with a yet-undisclosed Russian weapon. The MiG-31 would be the best and most efficient ASAT "first stage" out there, and I think the Syrians are pretty convinced by now that they can't hide anything from Israeli space assets, and that they'd better do something about it if they want to go forward with their evil plans.
An ASAT shot is not that simple! Even the F-15 with an Orbital Science Happy Birthday present would find it tough to hit a mid range orbit bird.
 
Herald
 
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Softwar       4/1/2009 8:57:37 AM



There's a third possibility. A reason for purchasing such a limited number of high-altitude interceptors might be for ASAT work with a yet-undisclosed Russian weapon. The MiG-31 would be the best and most efficient ASAT "first stage" out there, and I think the Syrians are pretty convinced by now that they can't hide anything from Israeli space assets, and that they'd better do something about it if they want to go forward with their evil plans.

An ASAT shot is not that simple! Even the F-15 with an Orbital Science Happy Birthday present would find it tough to hit a mid range orbit bird.


 

Herald



Glad to see ya Back!
This is why I suspect the PLA would market its DF-21 ASAT variant before the Russians could field a MiG-31 armed with an ASAT.  A flight borne shootdown is a bit tougher than a ground based launch.
 
In addition, we have never seen the MiG-31 or any Russian aircraft armed with an ASAT while the PLA demonstrated its ASAT for all the world to see.
 
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Shirrush    There you go!   4/1/2009 11:32:19 AM

 Any sale of ASAT weaponry would be a major international incident, second only to the sale of a nuclear warhead.  It is unlikely that either Russia or China would risk it.
There is no need to prove the existence of an ASAT weapon for the MiG-31. Promoting the perception, throughout World opinion and diplomatic circles, that this plane is an ASAT platform, could kill any export sales for some time ahead. This would carry the additional benefits of exposing the Putin gang as the bandits they are, and of using one of their own favorite propaganda tricks to do that too. What's not to like about this ASAT meme?
 
Hey Bibi, whaddabout hiring me?
 
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Shirrush    Oh!   4/1/2009 11:47:03 AM
And, Herald, welcome back. Sysop had a bad day on that idiotic and endless Rafale thread. Which makes me think: what if our new, horribly right-wing, bloated government achieves sufficient rogue status for the US to pull the F-35 proposal, and for the French to find us Ghaddafi-cute enough to offer the Rafale instead?
 
With the MiG-35 in Syria in the North, and, obviously, the EF-2000 in Jihad Central-Saudyia to the South, there's no doubt the IDF/AF needs to rethink its long-neglected (for lack of credible threats) A2A doctrine. Lagging a generation behind in platforms is certainly not going to cut it. What do you think?
 
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DarthAmerica       4/1/2009 12:22:52 PM

And, Herald, welcome back. Sysop had a bad day on that idiotic and endless Rafale thread. Which makes me think: what if our new, horribly right-wing, bloated government achieves sufficient rogue status for the US to pull the F-35 proposal, and for the French to find us Ghaddafi-cute enough to offer the Rafale instead?

 

With the MiG-35 in Syria in the North, and, obviously, the EF-2000 in Jihad Central-Saudyia to the South, there's no doubt the IDF/AF needs to rethink its long-neglected (for lack of credible threats) A2A doctrine. Lagging a generation behind in platforms is certainly not going to cut it. What do you think?


It's not a lag behind. Israel has one of the best well rounded Airforces in the world flying the latest in F-15's and F-16s with world class logistics, weapons, doctrine & training and of course home grown EW systems that would more than match a threat from EF or MIG. Granted there is somewhat of parity here in terms of platforms. But it is nothing that fundamentally alters things at the systems level. Israel of course could go the Silent Eagle and F-35 route in order to add some contemporary LO designs to the force. But I don't see this as anything more than routine normal modernization on the part of the Syrians and Saudis.

-DA 

 
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Herald12345    Buy Typhoon   4/1/2009 12:57:17 PM

And, Herald, welcome back. Sysop had a bad day on that idiotic and endless Rafale thread. Which makes me think: what if our new, horribly right-wing, bloated government achieves sufficient rogue status for the US to pull the F-35 proposal, and for the French to find us Ghaddafi-cute enough to offer the Rafale instead?

 

With the MiG-35 in Syria in the North, and, obviously, the EF-2000 in Jihad Central-Saudyia to the South, there's no doubt the IDF/AF needs to rethink its long-neglected (for lack of credible threats) A2A doctrine. Lagging a generation behind in platforms is certainly not going to cut it. What do you think?



and Israelize it. Rafale isn't quite good enough. You'll eat the ME in the air A2A for lunch with Typhoons..Might have been smart to try and get a few Black Widows back in the day, when NG came out on the short end in the ATF competition. That plane could reach Bushehr round trip and might have been an export offer, then. 
 
Herald
 
 
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Softwar       4/1/2009 1:39:03 PM
I still wonder about this report in the Russian news ..  I do understand that the outgoing head of the DIA made the comment that some MiGs will appear in the Syrian inventory but I am still not convinced.
 
For example, the claim of the MiG-29 variant with MiG-35 capability is really slim.  The MiG-35 is a pre-production model - never having gone into series - and would require quite a bit of work to become available - even in the limited number for Syria.  The MiG-29 M/M2 has also not gone into service - even in the Russian air force.  Depsite announced production - it has yet to appear - so one has to wonder if it is really available and if so what logistics can back it for any period of time?
 
The MiG-31 is a very specialized interceptor - it is not a fighter.  With a 5 g limit on its airframe this dog will never turn in a fight.  It is designed to intercept cruise missiles and bombers in friendly airspace.  In Syria it would perform in a hostile environment with Eagles and Falcons - something it was never designed to do.
 
The ASAT variant was produced under the B model but no ASAT missile ever appeared.
 
MiG is really really really in bad shape at the moment - almost broke.  So bad that the head of Sukhoi was brought in to help.  What happens if MiG finally tanks?  Any sale will have to take that financial decision into consideration.
 
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