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Subject: FYI: Syrian MIG-31E
DarthAmerica    3/30/2009 3:03:57 PM
DiD is reporting that this aircraft, 5, are being delivered to the Syrians. It also says a MIG-29 variant closely matching the specifications of the MIG-35 offered to India are being sold as well. Any thoughts on how these aircraft change the dynamic of Syrian Airforce capabilities?

-DA
 
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Shirrush    There you go!   4/1/2009 11:32:19 AM

 Any sale of ASAT weaponry would be a major international incident, second only to the sale of a nuclear warhead.  It is unlikely that either Russia or China would risk it.
There is no need to prove the existence of an ASAT weapon for the MiG-31. Promoting the perception, throughout World opinion and diplomatic circles, that this plane is an ASAT platform, could kill any export sales for some time ahead. This would carry the additional benefits of exposing the Putin gang as the bandits they are, and of using one of their own favorite propaganda tricks to do that too. What's not to like about this ASAT meme?
 
Hey Bibi, whaddabout hiring me?
 
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Shirrush    Oh!   4/1/2009 11:47:03 AM
And, Herald, welcome back. Sysop had a bad day on that idiotic and endless Rafale thread. Which makes me think: what if our new, horribly right-wing, bloated government achieves sufficient rogue status for the US to pull the F-35 proposal, and for the French to find us Ghaddafi-cute enough to offer the Rafale instead?
 
With the MiG-35 in Syria in the North, and, obviously, the EF-2000 in Jihad Central-Saudyia to the South, there's no doubt the IDF/AF needs to rethink its long-neglected (for lack of credible threats) A2A doctrine. Lagging a generation behind in platforms is certainly not going to cut it. What do you think?
 
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DarthAmerica       4/1/2009 12:22:52 PM

And, Herald, welcome back. Sysop had a bad day on that idiotic and endless Rafale thread. Which makes me think: what if our new, horribly right-wing, bloated government achieves sufficient rogue status for the US to pull the F-35 proposal, and for the French to find us Ghaddafi-cute enough to offer the Rafale instead?

 

With the MiG-35 in Syria in the North, and, obviously, the EF-2000 in Jihad Central-Saudyia to the South, there's no doubt the IDF/AF needs to rethink its long-neglected (for lack of credible threats) A2A doctrine. Lagging a generation behind in platforms is certainly not going to cut it. What do you think?


It's not a lag behind. Israel has one of the best well rounded Airforces in the world flying the latest in F-15's and F-16s with world class logistics, weapons, doctrine & training and of course home grown EW systems that would more than match a threat from EF or MIG. Granted there is somewhat of parity here in terms of platforms. But it is nothing that fundamentally alters things at the systems level. Israel of course could go the Silent Eagle and F-35 route in order to add some contemporary LO designs to the force. But I don't see this as anything more than routine normal modernization on the part of the Syrians and Saudis.

-DA 
 
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Herald12345    Buy Typhoon   4/1/2009 12:57:17 PM

And, Herald, welcome back. Sysop had a bad day on that idiotic and endless Rafale thread. Which makes me think: what if our new, horribly right-wing, bloated government achieves sufficient rogue status for the US to pull the F-35 proposal, and for the French to find us Ghaddafi-cute enough to offer the Rafale instead?

 

With the MiG-35 in Syria in the North, and, obviously, the EF-2000 in Jihad Central-Saudyia to the South, there's no doubt the IDF/AF needs to rethink its long-neglected (for lack of credible threats) A2A doctrine. Lagging a generation behind in platforms is certainly not going to cut it. What do you think?



and Israelize it. Rafale isn't quite good enough. You'll eat the ME in the air A2A for lunch with Typhoons..Might have been smart to try and get a few Black Widows back in the day, when NG came out on the short end in the ATF competition. That plane could reach Bushehr round trip and might have been an export offer, then. 
 
Herald
 
 
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Softwar       4/1/2009 1:39:03 PM
I still wonder about this report in the Russian news ..  I do understand that the outgoing head of the DIA made the comment that some MiGs will appear in the Syrian inventory but I am still not convinced.
 
For example, the claim of the MiG-29 variant with MiG-35 capability is really slim.  The MiG-35 is a pre-production model - never having gone into series - and would require quite a bit of work to become available - even in the limited number for Syria.  The MiG-29 M/M2 has also not gone into service - even in the Russian air force.  Depsite announced production - it has yet to appear - so one has to wonder if it is really available and if so what logistics can back it for any period of time?
 
The MiG-31 is a very specialized interceptor - it is not a fighter.  With a 5 g limit on its airframe this dog will never turn in a fight.  It is designed to intercept cruise missiles and bombers in friendly airspace.  In Syria it would perform in a hostile environment with Eagles and Falcons - something it was never designed to do.
 
The ASAT variant was produced under the B model but no ASAT missile ever appeared.
 
MiG is really really really in bad shape at the moment - almost broke.  So bad that the head of Sukhoi was brought in to help.  What happens if MiG finally tanks?  Any sale will have to take that financial decision into consideration.
 
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Herald12345    India?   4/1/2009 2:14:30 PM

I still wonder about this report in the Russian news ..  I do understand that the outgoing head of the DIA made the comment that some MiGs will appear in the Syrian inventory but I am still not convinced.

 

For example, the claim of the MiG-29 variant with MiG-35 capability is really slim.  The MiG-35 is a pre-production model - never having gone into series - and would require quite a bit of work to become available - even in the limited number for Syria.  The MiG-29 M/M2 has also not gone into service - even in the Russian air force.  Depsite announced production - it has yet to appear - so one has to wonder if it is really available and if so what logistics can back it for any period of time?

 

The MiG-31 is a very specialized interceptor - it is not a fighter.  With a 5 g limit on its airframe this dog will never turn in a fight.  It is designed to intercept cruise missiles and bombers in friendly airspace.  In Syria it would perform in a hostile environment with Eagles and Falcons - something it was never designed to do.

 

The ASAT variant was produced under the B model but no ASAT missile ever appeared.

 

MiG is really really really in bad shape at the moment - almost broke.  So bad that the head of Sukhoi was brought in to help.  What happens if MiG finally tanks?  Any sale will have to take that financial decision into consideration.

A shotgun wedding between MiG and Hindustan Aeronautics? How is India supposed to support its MiG29Ks if MiG TUs?

Herald
 
 
 
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Softwar    MacAir + Boeing   4/1/2009 2:35:53 PM


A shotgun wedding between MiG and Hindustan Aeronautics? How is India supposed to support its MiG29Ks if MiG TUs?



Herald


Perhaps another reason for India to think SuperHornet - it can do carrier work and has the logistics to back it.  It also is being produced at rates better than 1/2 an airframe a month.
 
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JFKY    Herald    4/1/2009 3:09:41 PM
Do you think that the Russian government would even contemplate such a thing?  I don't see that happening.  Sukhoi or some other company will absorb them, long before a bunch of Brown-skinned, former clients take over an interest in a historic Russian concern.  I know; I could be wrong, but I really don't see MiG joining HAL.  It would be like Daimler Benz buying Chrysler or the Japanese buying Rockefeller Center, neither of which went over too well in the US.  And Russia is NOT the US.
 
And it's like people worrying about GM or Chrysler cars and parts, in the event of a bankruptcy.  There IS a market for Dodge Ram, Chevy Malibu, or MiG-29 parts....someone, even if it's not MiG or GM will most likely see the opportunity to make some filthy lucre by selling them, i.e, buying the rights to produce them.  So, even if MiG goes away, Sukhoi or Herald Avionics could make MiG-29 parts for India, with or without a marriage of MiG and HAL.
 
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Phaid       4/1/2009 3:22:19 PM
Assuming the MiG-31E report is true, I'm really not sure what real use it would be.  A fleet of 5 interceptors isn't terribly useful for air defense, and the idea that a plane with a radar that can track 10 targets is hardly a "mini-AWACS".  It does have networking capability and can even control other fighters, but the scale of those capabilities is adequate for intercepting individual bombers over vast stretches of land, not controlling large air battles involving multiple tens of aircraft over short distances as would be the case in any Syria - Israel conflict.
 
Strikes me that if this is true, the main purpose of these aircraft would be to serve as expensive targets on the ground.
 
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Softwar    Flanker is Better Value   4/1/2009 3:38:55 PM
So which would be better - spending a billion on a handful of MiG-31s or spending a billion on SU-27 Flankers?
 
I think the Flanker would be a better purchase - and it seems that most of the other Air Forces who have a choice of Russian military aviation agree with this line of thought.  Although India elected to go with the K model MiG-29 for its carrier (ex-Russian) - I suspect that was a package deal.  Even the Russian Air Force has made the same choice.
 
Another reason for MiG to be cash strapped.  Sukhoi....
 
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sentinel28a       4/1/2009 7:55:30 PM
DA, just about every neighboring capital to Syria is within easy range of its present aircraft--Beirut, Baghdad, Amman, and Tel Aviv could be gotten to by a MiG-23 or Su-24 pretty easily--not counting for interception, of course.  (Ankara is a bit of a stretch, but it could be done as well.)  They don't need the MiG-31 for that.
 
And since the MiG-31 can't carry bombs, what's the point? They tool over there at 50,000 feet and Mach 2.6, then get obliterated by Patriots or F-15s.  Even Jordan's F-16s could nail MiG-31s with AMRAAMs.  Beirut is vulnerable due to Lebanon's chronic lack of interceptors (they've put 1950s-era Hunters back into service) and Baghdad might be vulnerable if not for the many USAF aircraft in theater.
 
 
 
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RockyMTNClimber    Welcome back.   4/1/2009 8:00:10 PM
 
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YelliChink       4/1/2009 8:48:03 PM
Welcome back, Herald.
 
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Arbalest       4/1/2009 9:07:08 PM
Herald is back. Congratulations and welcome back.
 
Now to the topic:
The Syrians bought 6 MiG-31s. Why? They don?t seem to be excessively vanity-oriented.
Israel isn?t very big, so the distances involved are not long. The MiG-31 has a look-down-shoot-down capability
and flies high and fast. How long can the MiG-31 hold M2.8 (or M2.7 or at least 1500kt)? Six minutes is 150-180 miles.
Throw in some jamming, decoys, maybe even some stealth mods . . .
 
Let?s try some off-the-wall possibilities, since it seems likely that conventional Syrian forces have little chance
against Israel. 2 possibilities come to mind:
 
1. Suppose that Syria or Hisballah were to modify their larger rockets to take/make in-flight corrections. A MiG-31
    might be able to last long enough to designate a target (perhaps even neighborhood- or building-sized) or two,
    allowing 50 or so incoming missiles to successfully target it. The scenario might be that 50-100 missiles are launched
    in one or more timed waves (1 wave per target), ant the MiG makes a high-speed dash to designate each target, thus
    increasing the probability of the missiles hitting the target.
 
2. The high-speed dash capability might be just enough to get a to a really high-value target (Jerusalem, the
    Dimona reactor, other) with an internal "payload" of some sort. Return flight might be optional; non-volunteer pilots
    don?t need to know.
 
Admittedly, these are of more propaganda value than military value, but Syria needs some sort of win.
 
 
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DarthAmerica       4/1/2009 9:10:35 PM

DA, just about every neighboring capital to Syria is within easy range of its present aircraft--Beirut, Baghdad, Amman, and Tel Aviv could be gotten to by a MiG-23 or Su-24 pretty easily--not counting for interception, of course.  (Ankara is a bit of a stretch, but it could be done as well.)  They don't need the MiG-31 for that.

 

And since the MiG-31 can't carry bombs, what's the point? They tool over there at 50,000 feet and Mach 2.6, then get obliterated by Patriots or F-15s.  Even Jordan's F-16s could nail MiG-31s with AMRAAMs.  Beirut is vulnerable due to Lebanon's chronic lack of interceptors (they've put 1950s-era Hunters back into service) and Baghdad might be vulnerable if not for the many USAF aircraft in theater.

 

 

Sorry but it doesn't work that way with regard to the other aircraft. The issue here is not absolute range. It's the range at which the Mig-31 can actually threaten low density high value assets, then fly back. No other plane in their arsenal can see as well then fly as far, as fast and shoot if necessary. Again, I'm not saying Syria has the most fearsome airforce because of Mig-31s. Just that it changes the tactical situation. And people should not discount the Mig because of low numbers. Even still, it can complicate things. Look into how just 16 Mig-21s complicated things for the USA over the skies of Vietnam until Operation Bolo. Remember, nations rarely go to all out war against one another. Those Migs make a nice target on the ground or to well aimed .50 Cal anti material rifle fire. But what if ROE dictate otherwise? Again, read about Operation Bolo and the cause of it. It's not a direct analogy, but close enough to illustrate the point of affecting the tactical situation.

-DA 
 
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