JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?

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B.Smitty RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - AG 4/20/2004 1:02:01 PM

According to Flug Review, the Mako is estimated to cost around $22-25 million each. That's not much better than a new F-16 block 50. The O&M may be lower, but it's hard to beat the value for your money offered by late model F-16s. Also, the Mako costs could dramatically change if their dev costs rise, or if they don't get the planned number of orders. OTOH, the price for a new F-16 is pretty stable while the production line is still open.

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Aussiegunner RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - B.Smitty 4/23/2004 2:01:06 PM

Obviously the question is open on development costs for the Mako. However, if the manufacturer has made a correct prediction on price, it should be competitive in the global market. Its LO features give it a distinct operational advantage over non-stealthy competitors, so by 2009 governments in growing economies may be willing to part with any extra cash, than they would have in buying 2nd hand F-16's.

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Shaken Mako availability? was:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - AG 4/23/2004 2:19:32 PM

When will Mako make its first flight? It is a complex multi-national project, so we should anticipate it's schedule will slip at least five and more likely ten years. My guess is thea Mako won't be available in squadron strength to train anyone (let alone be an F-5 class fighter) until 2015 or later. It will probably be another three to five years to clear through the backlog of member country orders, so lets say 2020 isn't out of the question. The KAI A-50 is a lot closer to availability and has a lot less program risk. (Proven design and technology. Less member country hesitations). One also has to presume it can integrate the AIM-120 with its APG-67 radar. In either case, just like the Hawk before them, both the Mako and A-50 are essentially trainers. The design decisions made will favor ease of handling over combat effectiveness. The weight of the design effort will be about created an integrated training environment. Combat and integration of combat systems is a secondary priority for these aircraft, while it is the primary focus for the Gripen. I anticipate the Gripen being a solidly better combat aircraft when compared to the various converted trainers. The Gripen has a window of opportunity where it is a great choice in the balance of cost and capabilities. Its only drawbacks are political (no US support, embargo issues) and short legs. PS: I remain astonished at Austria choosing Typhoon over the Gripen, which made much more economic and individual requirements sense than the Eurofighter. One wonders how much the EF partner nations are subsidising these purchases. - Shaken -- out -

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Mark F RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - Mark F 4/23/2004 4:46:53 PM

But users of F-5's, MiG-21's, A-4's etc. have had low-rent options available for years already and those products have languished in the market (the BAe Hawk 200 comes immediately to mind). I'm not underestimating the market one bit I don't think. I'm being realistic.

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Thomas2 RE:Gripen -Shaken 4/24/2004 5:15:48 PM

Concerning Austria: My suspicion is experience of Austria has shared the cosoumer experience all buyers of Swedish equipment has. The low cost is offset abundantly by the spares cost. Sweden never sells twice. Once burned, twice shy - you know.

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Aussiegunner RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - Mark F 4/29/2004 5:09:09 PM

"But users of F-5's, MiG-21's, A-4's etc. have had low-rent options available for years already and those products have languished in the market (the BAe Hawk 200 comes immediately to mind)." I had thought about that one. The obvious replacements for the A-4, ie, the Hawk 200 and the AMX, don't offer any real improvement in performance. I know the Hawk 200 has a radar/AMRAAM option, but the US ain't going to sell AMRAAMs to any Hawk 200 user and with a small radar set and low-speed, a pair of sidewinders won't make it an effective fighter. In the ground attack role, it is no better than the Hawk 100 trainer version, so why reduce your flexibility by taking away the extra seat? In any case, it has been easier to just update your A-4's with plentiful second-hand spares and new avionics. As for the Mig-21 and F-5, many users have adopted early model F-16's and Mig-29's to replace these. However, their are still a fair few of these floating around. The Mako offers a good aerodynamic performance and the advantage of stealth and thoroughly modern avionics, in a very economical package. It will also be able to be intergrated with the European MRAAM's, getting over the AMRAAM access problem. With the Golden Eagle, it is less stealthy and relies on AMRAAM's at present, but it still has the other advantageous traits of the Mako. It is also ready to buy now, whereas the Mako is slated for 2009, so I guess it depends on when the airforce wants to replace its current fleet.

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Shaken RE:Gripen -Shaken 4/29/2004 7:48:09 PM

Is this based on car sales experiences? I can't believe SAAB has had enough exports to earn this reputation any other way... [This response was mostly for humor. Insert smiley faces to your heart's content.]

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fullamongo RE:Gripen -Shaken 4/29/2004 8:01:04 PM

Austria did try to buy the Viggen after buying the Draken but the deal was blocked by the US who supplied the engines. So Austria would've bought swedish twice.

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Shaken RE:Gripen -Shaken 4/30/2004 3:35:48 AM

Well that is too bad. The Viggen would have looked smart in Austrian markings...

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jacques RE:Gripen -Shaken 4/30/2004 4:37:05 AM

The US was upset about loosing the market competition in the Czechoslovia and South Africa market.

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