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Subject: JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?
Aces    3/28/2004 11:51:51 PM
I think it's the 2nd best option for a light weight fighter (no doubt F-35's the best) in Asia-Pacific region. It's a good aircraft for the replacement of old 2nd or 3rd gen. fighters like F-16, F-5 ect., with the price cheaper than F-35. It's only light wt. 4 gen. fighter in the market. It's can be used as low-end fighter togerther with high-end F-35.
 
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shawn    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   3/29/2004 12:29:25 AM
As I mentioned before, BAE should have started marketing the Gripen about 2-4 years ago. As is, they've lost potential sales to Thailand already (2nd hand F-16A ADF), and probably the Philippines as well. Malaysia and Indonesia have gone for the Flanker, which leaves Myanmar (arms embargo), Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam, all of which would probably buy Russian. Taiwan may be posible, if BAE is willing to court China's 'displeasure', they have over a 120 F-5s that need replacing in a few years. Maybe New Zealand, if the government there ever figures out their heads from their ....
 
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mr_rok    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   3/29/2004 3:19:17 AM
Vietnam already has twelve flankers (six in 1995 and six in 1998)
 
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jacques    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   3/29/2004 7:12:16 AM
overall the Saab Gripen is a fine aircraft. The problem is that there is no need for it. Most asian countries are not serious about their defense. With the exception of Indian and China most of them would rather wait for uncle sam to defend them. The military postures are gear toward being a junior partner to uncle sam. As a result they will most likely to choose second hand F16. F16 is a fine aircraft by any standard, even the early preowned models.
 
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Mark F    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   3/29/2004 7:22:56 AM
BAe has been marketing the Gripen internationally since 1996. Frankly though, I don't think Asia is the right market for it. Thailand is now and will for the foreseeable future be dedicated to American types and Gripen doesn't have the kind of range users like Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philipines would probably require. Europe, Africa and South America are much better prospects for Gripen sales.
 
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Aussiegunner    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   3/29/2004 2:08:39 PM
SAAB had better get its act together, if it wants to get good export sales in the worldwide(not just Asia Pacific) light-combat aircraft market. Their are 3 other types that I know of, the EADS Mako, the Indian Light Combat Aircraft and the Joint US/Korean Golden Eagle, which will provide powerful competitian to the Gripen within a few years. Given the projected 3000+ aircraft that will be needed in this class, SAAB should take advantage of being the only aircraft being offered in this class now.
 
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shawn    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   3/29/2004 10:01:30 PM
You left out the Chinese/Paki Super-7, prototypes already flying, and the J-10, which China may export.
 
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Mark F    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   3/30/2004 6:08:12 AM
The Mako and Golden Eagle are no more competitors to the Gripen than the BAe Hawk is today. And nobody is going to want to go near the LCA - the aircraft of last decade available next decade.
 
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Aussiegunner    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   3/31/2004 5:51:44 AM
Yes, I forgot the J-10. However, I don't really think the J-7 counts. It is only really an upgraded Mig-21, generously assessed as having the effectiveness of an F-16A. The types I am talking about are far more advanced and capable aircraft.
 
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Aussiegunner    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - Mark F    3/31/2004 5:59:54 AM
You are thinking from the perspective of a military, who always want the absolutely most capable type. Hoever, militaries don't get the final say on what is bought, governments do. It is quite possible that a government replacing a bunch of F-5's might decide that a Mako, Golden Eagle, an LCA or a J-10 will do the job for a considerably cheaper price. This is especially true for the Golden Eagle and the Mako, as users can use the trainer version as a lead-in fighter, reducing costs considerably. Therefore, in the global light aircraft market, these types are very much a competitor for the Gripen. P.S. I don't think the Mako in particular is to shabby on performance, compared to the Gripen. Its low-observability features, AMRAAM capability and a supersonic performance are dangerous to anyone not flying an F-22. Its the one to watch, IMHO.
 
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Thomas    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market?   4/20/2004 7:50:57 AM
I agree very much with jaques. If you can get a preowned F-16 at a rockbottom price, why negotiate with Sweden. The spares stituation is going to be very questionable also: You can get sanctioned by the USA, Britain and Sweden - You are sure to p*ss of at least one of them all the time.
 
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B.Smitty    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - AG   4/20/2004 1:02:01 PM
According to Flug Review, the Mako is estimated to cost around $22-25 million each. That's not much better than a new F-16 block 50. The O&M may be lower, but it's hard to beat the value for your money offered by late model F-16s. Also, the Mako costs could dramatically change if their dev costs rise, or if they don't get the planned number of orders. OTOH, the price for a new F-16 is pretty stable while the production line is still open.
 
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Aussiegunner    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - B.Smitty   4/23/2004 2:01:06 PM
Obviously the question is open on development costs for the Mako. However, if the manufacturer has made a correct prediction on price, it should be competitive in the global market. Its LO features give it a distinct operational advantage over non-stealthy competitors, so by 2009 governments in growing economies may be willing to part with any extra cash, than they would have in buying 2nd hand F-16's.
 
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Shaken    Mako availability? was:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - AG   4/23/2004 2:19:32 PM
When will Mako make its first flight? It is a complex multi-national project, so we should anticipate it's schedule will slip at least five and more likely ten years. My guess is thea Mako won't be available in squadron strength to train anyone (let alone be an F-5 class fighter) until 2015 or later. It will probably be another three to five years to clear through the backlog of member country orders, so lets say 2020 isn't out of the question. The KAI A-50 is a lot closer to availability and has a lot less program risk. (Proven design and technology. Less member country hesitations). One also has to presume it can integrate the AIM-120 with its APG-67 radar. In either case, just like the Hawk before them, both the Mako and A-50 are essentially trainers. The design decisions made will favor ease of handling over combat effectiveness. The weight of the design effort will be about created an integrated training environment. Combat and integration of combat systems is a secondary priority for these aircraft, while it is the primary focus for the Gripen. I anticipate the Gripen being a solidly better combat aircraft when compared to the various converted trainers. The Gripen has a window of opportunity where it is a great choice in the balance of cost and capabilities. Its only drawbacks are political (no US support, embargo issues) and short legs. PS: I remain astonished at Austria choosing Typhoon over the Gripen, which made much more economic and individual requirements sense than the Eurofighter. One wonders how much the EF partner nations are subsidising these purchases. - Shaken -- out -
 
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Mark F    RE:JAS-39 Gripen, the chance in Asia-Pacific market? - Mark F    4/23/2004 4:46:53 PM
But users of F-5's, MiG-21's, A-4's etc. have had low-rent options available for years already and those products have languished in the market (the BAe Hawk 200 comes immediately to mind). I'm not underestimating the market one bit I don't think. I'm being realistic.
 
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Thomas2    RE:Gripen -Shaken   4/24/2004 5:15:48 PM
Concerning Austria: My suspicion is experience of Austria has shared the cosoumer experience all buyers of Swedish equipment has. The low cost is offset abundantly by the spares cost. Sweden never sells twice. Once burned, twice shy - you know.
 
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