I certainly dont disagree with you Herald, but a little with Blacksmith.  Given the technological and economics requirements for building a viable fleet of AtA UCAV's, I dont see how anyone but the US can do it in the near future.  And I see the reason being we have the technology, the economy, and *not least* the traditional fighter force to protect the infantile revolution.  I certainly hope the USAF will wisen up and embrace the UCAV (they seem to be at least on the new bomber requirements).  But I dont really know enough to comment beyond a passing observation and a follow up question.

Herald, do you see the Navy following the Army's lead with full intentionality before or after the Airforce.  Certainly removing the pilots from at least a portion of the aircraft on a carrier will contribute to a significant reduction in operating costs.

 

Herald

Wait, let me try this on for size...

 

[ahem!]

 

[affect a deep voice and a scowl]

 

[grumble, sputter] "The Air Force doesn't care about the best way to accomplish their true mission, which is to support the ground troops.  The Air Force is run by a bunch of fighter pilots who are afraid of losing funding and diminishing the glory of their exclusive fraternity.  The Air Force is dragging their feet in developing and acquiring UCAVs; in fact, they really doesn't want them at all, and probably hopes that if they just continue ignoring the subject it might just go away."

 

There, now I'm a "pundit" too.  Wow, I'm finally a deep thinker at last.  Who'da thunk it could be so easy?  Why didn't I do this long ago?

The fact that we have the most effective manned fighter does not give us opportunity to start the revolution, because; a) there is no dire need to drive a revolution

Well, I'd certainly agree with at least this much.  We'll continue to acquire and expand the roles of UCAVs in accordance with how well they are shown to provide what is considered to be sufficient capability for whatever missions they are envisioned to fulfill in light of their cost.  VV seems pretty sure that a showing of sufficient capability is going to unfold rather rapidly and rather soon.  I assume he has in mind developments by us and/or our allies, and if so, then since we are already so far ahead of the threat in our capabilities given aircraft like the F-22 and the F-35 in the large numbers that we do and will have it seems likely to me (and I think Blacksmith would agree) that even in the face of startling new UCAV developments actual acquisition will still be long in coming as the threat just won't be there to justify early replacement of what we already have/will have.  Lord, hasten the day when we no longer need to send our men and women into combat in the cockpit--but I don't see that happening much for many years yet, primarily because it just doesn't need to.

 

 

 

so what happens if the russians roll out a robo-fighter?  It will be cheap, shoddy and be as much a danger to itself as others.  But it will be built in large numbers and used without regard to attrition.  And while I dis' their manufacturing qualities (or lack thereof), I don't do the same with their academic skills.  Russia has produced many of the world's mathematicians, physicists and intellectual sorts.  So their crappy robo-fighter runs intricate algorithms in chinese computers (you know, the same ones we use).  And our response will be ready about 20 years later, based on recent aircraft development program timelines.

Lack operational experience?  Bet they learned a few things in Afghanistan and Chechnya (the hard way).  Of course they only faced neolithic rebels there with no air force, but what operational experience do we have in the past 30 years?  Shooting down a few stragglers in Libya and Iraq?  If we get into an A-A war again, it's going to be like a pair of amaturs going at it, like the first battle of bull run.  Wait a minute.  The US lost that battle.

 

Lack of satellite capability?  A major part of the US space program consists of subsidizing the russian space program, without which the Space Station would have fallen out of the sky years ago.  And why do you need satellites for robo-fighters?

What will happen if the Russians begin working on a robofighter is that we'll see them doing it and can decide how to respond if necessary well before they are ready for production, much less actually achieve any degree of mass production.  I think it's much more likely that it's us/our allies that will have working AtoA UCAVs before Russia or China do.  According to VV it's only a matter of several years from now.  I can't wait.