That is odds for each individual star system alone as a c;ass set and can not be counted cumulative. And that is for a tool and symbol user result. I.don't consider whales intelligent by that definition..

 

H.

 

 

Yes, but you assume the intelligence has to be hominid, which is a specious assumption. You make a lot of assumptions in fact which have little enough basis. Basically your premise is that life has to be just like us to be intelligent. I find that to be very parochial. 

 

And yes, even if we assume each star system is an independent 40M:1 chance(which of course should go without saying), you are still rolling the dice 10^22 times. If you do the probability, the chance of no tool using life out there is very small. Of course the chance of it finding us is vanishingly small, so I am not advocating UFOs or anything such.

A reduced RCS is not the sole contributor to a plane being LO, reduced heat signature, ability to detect and track targets with low chances of being counter tracked, advanced defence packages eg chaff/flares, ability to jam/ disrupt enemy radar etc, there are a few more, but these also contribute to the LO status of a plane, not just a RCS.

LOL, Herald, I guess we know where you stand!  I suppose I'd rather be thought an idiot than a troll.  Do I have to list the science classes I've taken?  Don't remember the one where we covered the Drake equation, actually I think that was in James Michener's novel SPACE:

 

 

[edit...] The equation

The Drake equation states that:

where:

N = the number of civilizations... in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;

and

R^* = the average rate of star... formation per year in our galaxy...

f_p = the fraction of those stars that have planets...

n_e = the average number of planets that can potentially support life... per star that has planets

f_&S467; = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point

f_i = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent... life

f_c = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space

L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.^[3]

[edit...] Alternative expression

The number of stars in the galaxy now, N^*, is related to the star formation rate R^* by

where T_g = the age of the galaxy. Assuming for simplicity that R^* is constant, then and the Drake equation can be rewritten into an alternate form phrased in terms of the more easily observable value, N^*.^[4]

This excludes SF notions of panspermia of course.  

 

So N != 0.  That's all I'm saying.  I just think the point can be debated and that claiming "impossibility" is a sign of intellectual arrogance when "wild improbability" is much more accurate.  After all, it is possible that the sun will not rise tomorrow (though that's the way to bet).  Or that you and Darth will abandon all recriminations and settle down into intellectual nest-feathering together.

OK, OK, alien life is much more likely   

 

And that is for a tool and symbol user result. I.don't consider whales intelligent by that definition..

( the foregoing being from wiki ...btw, excuse please)

 

 

[edit...] Historical estimates of the parameters

Considerable disagreement on the values of most of these parameters exists, but the values used by Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were:

• R* = 10/year (10 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy)
• f_p = 0.5 (half of all stars formed will have planets)
• n_e = 2 (stars with planets will have 2 planets capable of developing life)
• f_l = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)
• f_i = 0.01 (1% of which will be intelligent life)
• f_c = 0.01 (1% of which will be able to communicate)
• L = 10,000 years (which will last 10,000 years).

Drake's values give N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 10.  Anyway odds are that much higher that there is life we won't find.  But earlm's certainty seems to be at the level that the Bible says we are the only ones and that's that.  If he wants to talk Scripture that's fine with me too, but that would seem to be another argument.  I'm sure that's not his point anyway as a devout Christian wouldn't be so rude (right tonythetiger? ).

 

Only if we could harpoon them for their meat and oil.....

 

Or if we found a world full of giant baby harp seals?