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Subject: Deploying The Poverty Weapon
SYSOP    10/22/2014 6:55:20 AM
 
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Gerry       10/23/2014 10:00:18 PM
In essence the tribal wars that Kadaffy quelled are returning. It will be a few years ( if not more) before another dictator comes to power. Interesting to see how the oil works out. Otherwise expect a long war of tribal one ups manship.
 
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WarNerd       10/24/2014 3:29:00 AM
Bet on the long war.  Without an existing government structure for a dictator to take over for support, especially a capable military, a dictator will be strictly local.  The result will resemble Yemen at best, Somalia at worst.
 
Expect the rise of an religious extremist / terrorist organization, probably ISIS associated. It will be opposed by the less conservative tribal groups.  Potentially this could lead to a central government, IF it grows large enough and persists for several years, that’s a lot of fighting and casualties, but at least they will all be Sunni.
 
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