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Subject: Bin Laden killed in raid by Navy SEALS
esmoore5    5/2/2011 4:33:02 AM
Elite Navy SEALs conducted bin Laden mission: http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/may/01/elite-navy-seals-conducted-bin-laden-mission/
 
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Reactive       5/20/2011 11:56:33 AM

And so in 5, 10, 15, 20 or 25+ years of maintaining our present approach will we be in a better position or in a worse position as compared with today?  Pay equivalent to a tithe to Islam for example in exchange for peace promised.  A description of your endgame will be most appreciated, thanks.


v^2



I think in some ways what you are saying is mirrored by the unsuccessful sunshine policy towards North Korea, why continue to support a regime that has no intention of ever responding favourably?
 
I think there is a difference between that parallel (one you didn't make and I promise you this isn't a strawman argument) is that Pakistan is divided between modernisers and conservative islamists - the general public is hard to speak for but my personal opinion is that there is more "Pakistani nationalism" than anything else being expressed at the moment, and that the nation as a whole can't be viewed as broadly supportive of militant islam. 

Endgames:
 
The first is the least likely:

One where the US and (maybe) india (unlikely imv given their proximity) try and preemptively disarm Pakistan without using nuclear weapons, that means a major air operation, a major ground operation, and a very uncertain outcome, I think it's pretty unlikely that short of using D-5's yourselves you have the capability to completely destroy Pakistan's nuclear capability at the same time as making sure none of the weapons or fissiles fall in to the wrong hands?  So you're faced with a conflict that has every possibility of going nuclear for the first time in over 60 years, what are the possibilities for escalation? what do Russia and China threaten? What does this do to the global and US economy? What is the fallout pattern if plutonium-producing reactors are hit? In any event you are at the VERY LEAST now left with a population of 190 million people in who are now sworn enemies of the US in an unpredictable future state of governance which you no longer have the resources to maintain any sort of occupation/reconstruction or influence, you are left with a situation in which the likelihood of terrorists or hostile states obtaining access to nuclear weapons or bomb-grade plutonium is an order of magnitude higher. The situation in Afghanistan now  and in terms of containment of global terrorism looks like a paradise in comparison to the mess you are now left with.
 
#2
 
The US completely withdraws aid from Pakistan, which effectively means cutting diplomatic ties given how it would be percieved, it would mean losing any and all influence inside the civilian parts of government. You have to remember that a battle is taking place inside pakistan over the future direction of the nation - there are hardliners, secularists and moderates all of which exist in the entity of state government and the military establishment- you have now lost the ability to in any way influence the way that process progresses.
 
#3
 
You ask about an endgame that is more positive, in my view that is one that does not require a major conflict, but rather a gradual set of targets, normalisation of relations with India, greater civilian control over the military, greater access to education (the very best weapon against radicalisation), these can happen but they require a steady hand, a potential nuclear conflict won't do much good and risk the sorts of unpredictable regional and global escalation that we should do everything we can to avoid. But this outcome requires investment, and a degree of influence over events, it doesn't actually matter whether ISI knew the wherabouts of Bin Laden, what matters is whether the Pakistani population wants to modernise like India or live like the Taliban, I firmly believe that the majority want the former and that is my basis for some degree of optimism and also the belief that retaining influence through any means necessary is preferable to the completely unpredictable outcome of allowing relations to deteriorate to the point of a potential nuclear conflict. 
 
IF a preemptive strike could take place today and guarantee the destruction of the entire Pakistani arsenal and somehow avoid irradiating the entire region and avoiding escalation I would still oppose it on the basis that the legacy it would leave would be far more dangerous in the long term - the more attractive solution IMV is to influence the way Pakistan evolves, and to try and steer it if at all towards normalisation with India and the economic develop
 
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esmoore5    More "rubbish" links. :)   5/20/2011 9:46:16 PM
Another Stealth Chopper in the Osama Raid?: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/05/another-stealth-chopper-in-the-osama-raid/ Osama bin Laden planned Easter bomb campaign, files seized in US raid show: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/8527369/Osama-bin-Laden-planned-Easter-bomb-campaign-files-seized-in-US-raid-show.html Al Qaeda Considered Targeting Oil Tankers: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704083904576335440434649646.html?mod=WSJ_World_LEFTSecondNews
 
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gf0012-aust       5/20/2011 10:35:57 PM

Another Stealth Chopper in the Osama Raid?:
link

for over 10 years UK SAS have been using acoustically modded chooks....  does anyone seriously think that the manuf wasn't assisting?

some of these concept drawings are just ridiculous, seriously.  they just dumb down the debate
have a look at the all the concept drawings that "informed" experts have trotted out ever since the F19, Goblin.  Every single one of them was wrong - most didn't look remotely look like the production or released article.

blade and wind engineers would be vomiting at that drawing.  pictures should at least try to reflect physical and physics realities.  that drawing is a cavitation nightmare.

 

 
 
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gf0012-aust       5/20/2011 10:43:35 PM
eg, why some of these links are rubbish:

the logistics were discussed here long ago, the likely flight fitout was discussed here, the reasons why chooks were in was discussed, the loadout was discussed.  etc.....  none of the stuff said in here needed to be revised after May 3 because considered analysis had already happened.

the below is an example of bad journalism in the first instance.  adding drawings  just reinforces how little these people do know about the basics of logistics and these types of missions. Sig suppressed chooks have been around for years - and already used on SOF activities.  In fact UK SAS use them as primary assets, thats how confident they are of the acoustic mods made.

Early reporting, including our own, proposed that Chinooks likely participated in the raid, for purely mathematical reasons. Twenty-four Navy SEALs and one dog would max out the capacity of a pair of H-60s. A single H-47, never mind two, could carry the whole assault force with room to spare.

That assumption was challenged on May 3, when CIA chief Leon Panetta said the assault birds were definitely ?Blackhawks.? The same day, the photographic evidence surfaced of those choppers? special mods. From that, observers concluded that the operation was conducted without Pakistani approval, and indeed against their wishes, using H-60 helicopters capable of slipping past Islamabad?s radars.

That seemed to definitively rule out the big, loud, radar-reflecting Chinooks. ?I don?t believe that ?normal? MH-47s were involved,? Cenciotti wrote on May 6, owing to ?considerations on the stealthiness of the formation.?

Then, this week, off-the-record government sources told the Associated Press that three  Quote    Reply

VelocityVector       5/20/2011 11:21:05 PM

Chooks may be sound dampened to an extent.  But even the relative air disturbed by their rotors can be detected with Pak weather doppler in the mountains.  There almost certainly were active ems efforts in play from supporting platforms, which might help explain the power outages reported.  We shut the Pak esystems down just as we will do to PRC in a time of need.  (I find this rather heartening.)  Reactive, there is no peaceful endgame possible with Pakistan, only bad and worse.  Time/patience will not operate to US long-term advantage there.  Because if unstopped they are going to come over here with plutonium and suicide squads thanks in part to the brotherly PRC.  Which itself is vulnerable and accessible by the same means come to think about it.  Hmmm.  0.02

v^2
 
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gf0012-aust       5/21/2011 12:49:57 AM

Chooks may be sound dampened to an extent.  But even the relative air disturbed by their rotors can be detected with Pak weather doppler in the mountains.  There almost certainly were active ems efforts in play from supporting platforms, which might help explain the power outages reported.  We shut the Pak esystems down just as we will do to PRC in a time of need.   Hmmm.  0.02

v^2

yep, and the use of crows was discussed in here as well.  the problem with that "drawing" of the modified chook is that ignores everything we know about rotors, cavitation etc....  downwash issues have to be managed with mods to the fuselage, energy bleed at the tips is not managed by using scythe/scimitar shaping (its about energy bleed management, not about "cutting" the air etc.....

maybe i'm anal about this stuff, but I get really crapped off when I see pseudo babble presented by magazines as some kind of technical insight.

that picture is an engineering abortion. 
 
 
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Reactive       5/21/2011 10:46:11 AM

Reactive, there is no peaceful endgame possible with Pakistan, only bad and worse.
 
I'm sorry if the picture I painted featured rainbows and peace-loving pakistanis running through gumdrop forests, I did intend to make it somewhat clear that the situation is difficult/regrettable either way.
 
Time/patience will not operate to US long-term advantage there.
 
Ok well I can appreciate that is a possibility too, so my turn to ask a question, how do you get out of this situation in a manner that doesn't risk or at least minimises escalation, while ensuring the security of all fissile materials and active/inactive warheads?
 
Because if unstopped they are going to come over here with plutonium and suicide squads thanks in part to the brotherly PRC. 
 
 The PRC needs to be tackled across a whole range of fronts - I worry about them far more than Pakistan or their other client states, I would like to think that the Pakistani military is aware of the reprecussions their nation would face if they did provide militants with such devices?
 
Which itself is vulnerable and accessible by the same means come to think about it.  Hmmm.  0.02
 
Maybe start with getting serious about tackling their undervalued currency, their trade-warfare tactics, their holdings of US currency, their harvesting methods and so on. There's enough potential internal unrest in the PRC to keep them occupied for a long time to come.
 
 

v^2
 
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esmoore5    More "rubbish" links. (Slow News Day) :)   5/21/2011 6:28:21 PM
Bin Laden tied to Manchester bomb plot: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2011/05/21/UPI-NewsTrack-TopNews/UPI-76581306015200/ Osama Bin Laden's Hollywood Buzz: http://www.canyon-news.com/artman2/publish/Michael_St_John_s_Confidential_File_1175/OSAMA_BIN_LADEN_HOLLYWOOD_BUZZ.php
 
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esmoore5    More "rubbish" links. :)   5/22/2011 7:18:59 PM
Militant training camp near bin Laden' hideout: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43127417/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/ Bin Laden focused on planes, trains and boats — targets he knew best: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/995423--bin-laden-focused-on-planes-trains-and-boats-targets-he-knew-best US 'would repeat Bin Laden raid': http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/13478318
 
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gf0012-aust       5/23/2011 12:53:11 AM


Bin Laden focused on planes, trains and boats — targets he knew best:
link


there's a revelation
maybe thats why all security agencies after 911 focussed on mass transit capabilities - and which was reinforced after madrid and london... and the attack in india via the sea...
its why popular nightspots were also targetted in indonesia etc....
 
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