I quite like this topic, so thought id see if we can?t get the chatter going?

Military incursions onto Australia?s external territories such as Christmas or Coco islands are not unthinkable scenarios in the coming 25 years (as we know the political landscape can change very quickly). This is particularly true if Sino Indian relations become tense, the Energy war scenario heated up and/or vital choke points such as Malacca straights become impassable due to environmental terrorism, military activity or climatic event (suggesting the passage of water between Xmas Island & Indonesia could become strategically important).

Firstly I have considered how someone might take the islands?

 The Islands would need to be taken rapidly and by surprise therefore a naval armada steaming toward the island would probably be undesirable for the aggressor( or the Australian submarine fleet would be making some nice artificial reefs), suggesting an Airborne Insertion of paratroopers or commando?s (possibly via commercial aircraft) to take the airport and port facilities could be the first action, followed by insertion of further air deployable forces and heavy forces (potentially via converted container ships- rapidly rerouting off shipping routes). Followed by deployment of Fighter Aircraft potentially via Myanmar (this would pose some challenges an aggressor, but would not be impossible) (H)

Recovery: Option 1

The Canberra class LHD amphibious assault ships would be vital to any attempt to retake the islands; however during transit they would be venerable to submarines and maritime strike aircraft. This suggests AWD, Anti submarine surface ships and attack submarines would be vital. (A)

            The risks posed by naval liberation suggest airborne insertion may be preferred? (assuming the RED fighters can be distracted)

SASR & Commando?s are ideal suited to such a mission, and could be inserted via Air/Sea, however it is questionable whether enough of them could be spared, considering it is likely that other theatres are likely to be exploding at the same time, suggesting they would have a large workload.  This indicates that additional conventional airborne forces would also be needed, the Airborne Battle Group. (B)

Currently the 3rd Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment could be called on upon to satisfy majority of this requirement (however their proposed conversion due to the HNA may change this).

The Airborne Battle Group would need aircraft to deploy them; C-130 & C-17 could provide this capability, however like the SASR these are likely have a large workload (tied up with traditional transport duties). (C)

Obviously such an operation would require Air Support; the RAAF (F/A-18/F/A-18F/ EA-18G/F-35A/Wedgetails) could currently provide CAP/Maritime Strike/Close Air Support and AEW&C however this would be a huge strain on tanker capabilities (D) [F-35B aboard the LHD could be involved in this, should they be acquired in the future]

US Military assistance could be obtained from Diego Garcia (the presence of such a large US facility is likely to be a huge deterrent to any aggressor). United States Navy Fifth & Seventh Fleet?s, USMC, US Army Rangers & Airborne forces are likely to be involved. (F)        

Could be like a Battle of Crete/ Midway Hybrid ??.

Protection: Option 1  

Raise an additional full time Regional Force Surveillance Unit designed especially to garrison Australia?s various external territories, equip them with low level Surface to Air Missiles (G).

 

 

Build extensive C4I/OTH facilities on these territories (Including hydrophone arrays)

Regular routine Naval patrols (Including Submarines) -Operation RESOLUTE

Build full scale Naval & Air-force facilities & base capital equipment (Ships-Subs-Fighters).

Basing of unmanned vehicles & facilities (Air-Undersea-Surface)

Notes:

A)     Additional AWD, F-35B- LHD based, P-8A

B)      Retention of 3RAR (PARA) [raise additional Light infantry/Mechanized from elsewhere], procurement of airborne fighting vehicles (AFV), re-task the Airborne Battle Group to Special Forces Command. (G)

C)      Additional C-130?s/ Chinooks

D)      Additional Airbus A330-200 aerial refuelling tankers

E)       Effective Minesweepers

F)       Ability to call on allies (regardless of geopolitical climate)

G)      This should seriously be looked at.

H)      A lot depends on the rapid response of the government and rapid deployment may prevent this.

Option 1 is based on the assumption that the government requires the recapture of the island quickly and does not want to get involved in a long war (i.e. Option 2) ? Air/Sea Control operations / Attacking SLOC followed by traditional Amphibious assault.

Also- Obviously there are a variety of factors in play & the response depends on other political/military/strategic events at the time.

With regard to the Indonesia goes bad scenario: Couple of quick points

Offence: