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Subject: And now for something completely different...RAAF chooses EE Lightning over Mirage.
Volkodav    5/24/2009 4:55:42 AM
The Lightning was a contender for RAAF how serious a contender I don't know. The main choice always seemed to be between the Mirage and the Lockheed Starfighter with the Phantom and Lightning being only bit players. The Lightning was apparently ruled out due to it's lack of ground attack capability, not that the Mirage was a wiz in the air to ground department either. The RR Avon and Ferranti Airpass radar of the Lightning were actually considered for the baseline Mirage III EO as they would have offered significantly improved performance. Imagine now that the RAAF had selected an evolved derivative of the Lightning. Would we have used it in Vietnam? What modifications and improvements would it have incorporated? What upgrades would it received during its life? What weapons would it have been certified for,i.e. Sidewinder, Paveway? What would the sale to Australia have meant for the program as a whole and then for the British and Austrlaian aviation industries?
 
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Herald12345       6/14/2009 12:15:22 AM

Herald to be truthful the RAAF would probably have been better off replacing the Canberras with the conventional strike derivative of the A5 Vigilante the was originaly selected prior to the government commiting to the F-111 instead.

The Vigilante's bomb ejector didn't work well (a Newton ejector?) and she couldn't carry standoff weapons very well . Get the Buccaneer, wire her for the Paveway series, and use some tankers for range instead..  Blackburn built a winner in Buccaneer. I still think the Cranberry SLEP is a better dollar spent for the need at hand. Speed is not everything. Electronics, stable launch and drop, and good low level transonic performance, (well two out of three) is good enough.  

It would have been available to enter service in the mid 60's, would have been substantially cheaper than the F-111 and could have been manufactured / assembled locally. While not as capable as the F-111 and likely not as long lived the Vigilante would have done the job required of it while freeing up funds for other capabilities that were ignored with the F-111 purchase. i.e. Tartar County DLG's and a new CVL capable of operating off the shelf fighters....F-8 anyone?
 
Could Australia build Vigilante? Probably. What was the state of Australian avionics research and her capacity to fix North American's foul ups? You'll have to fix these faults. It took US ten years.
 
PPDI- a very primitive HUD.
REINS-from the primitive NAVAJO tercom that didn't work. 
VERDAN-the nav computer that was a teardown every half hour, or so, to see what burned out this time?

None of that crap worked right in first iteration.

Herald
 
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Volkodav       6/14/2009 5:26:59 AM
More thought on the County.
 
The RAN had traditionally operated almost equal numbers of destroyers and cruisers up until the early 40's when the number of cruisers was reduced through attrition while he number of destroyers increased through transfers from the UK (N and Q class) and local construction (Tribal class) a a far greater rate than attrition. At one point we were down to s single County class cruiser along with the obsolete HMAS Adelaide leading to the RAN relying on destroyer, inparticular the Tribals, filling roles that previously would have been assigned to a cruiser. This led to the misconception that the Tribals, in truth DL's rather than DD's were in actual fact almost as good as CL's.
 
This fiction that larger destroyers were interchangable with light cruisers persisted post war with the Darings and then the Adams in RAN service being seen by many as "almost" cruisers. In reality both were fleet destroyers and not even as capable as the DL and DLG designs being prepared and (sometimes) built in the US, UK and Europe.
 
The RAN's acquisition of two CVL's, whose strike aircraft were seen as the true replacement for gun cruisers, as well as plans to retain one CA in reserve and one CL as a combat capable training ship mitigated the fiction surrounding the fighting prowess of our destroyers into the mid 50's. Unfortunately by the late 50's the decission had been made to dispose of both cruisers, retire one carrier and convert the other into a helicopter only ASW carrier when her fixed wing aircraft (Seavenom and Gannet) reached the end of their useful lives. This plan effectively religated the RAN' future role to that of an ASW Flotilla.
 
What changed was Indonessias arms purchases and regional aspirations which saw a life extention for Melbourne with orders for Skyhawks and Trackers as well as the order of the three Adams class DDG's. 
 
What we needed to do was accept the two Majestic class CVL's as replacements for the County class CA's while acquiring a pair of new CL (Colony or Minatour class) or modernised CLAA (Dido class) to act as DL's to the various destroyer classes that made up the escort groups for the carriers during the early 50's / Korea.
 
Concurrent to this we would have purchased two of the four Centaurs still on the stocks at the end of the war and have them completed to the same standard as Hermes instead of modernising the Majectics, one of which would have become a training ship and the other would pass to reserve. This would have seen Australia enter the 60's which two modern carriers operating Seavixen and Gannet, with the potential to later add Bucaneer. At this point the logical decission would have been to replace the two cruisers and some of the destroyers with a number of DLG's (County, Leahy, Belknap) which would allow the remaining destroyers to be replaced with general purpose frigates (idealy broadbeam Leanders). The Majestics would be available for operation as training ships, ASW helicopter carriers, transports, or Commando Carriers as required.
 
Long term the DLG's would be replaced with AEGIS CG's and the frigates with something along the lines of the Type 23 Duke Class. The carriers would be initially be converted with skijumps for Sea Harrier and then both the Centaurs and the Majestics would be replaced with a class of three V/STOL carriers.
 
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Aussiegunneragain    Herald   6/14/2009 8:42:00 AM



I used to be a fan of the idea that Australia could, can and should operate a comprehensive naval air defence system, but I've come to the conclusion that this was beyond us then and remains so now. The Melbourne and our other skimmers were useful convoy escort asset for Australia to contribute to the allied effort against Soviet submarines and surface raiders, but they couldn't have operated independently against more than an air threat constituting the odd TU-16 or TU-95 lobbing one or two ASM's.



You need to think clearly about how you would  fight Mister Badger (and Konfrontassi) in your AO, AGG. GF gave you some of it when he mentioned Bloodhound though I prefer Thunderbird for its mobility. Make him fight on your terms and commit himserlf to the wrong actions.


 

You have to lure Mister Badger into combat beyond his fighter cover and into your fighter/SAM defense.

 

Let's face something else, you don't put to see without some figbter defense as long as Mister Badger is around. Part of the point I harped upon earlier was that you have a severe budget and operations manpower limitation, so that you have to pick and choose carefully how you go about the Konfrontassi. Everything from submarine delivered commando raids to blow them up up in their aircraft shelters to counter airbase  missions by Canberras to just plain sabotage to maybe trading in the Majestics for Centaurs to buying Swedish fighterts and land based attack aircraft as we've discussed to this point is geared to three systems objectives:

 

-active deterrence to show the Indonesian dictator that military confrontation is useless.

-the STICK (Teddy Roosevelt) to prevent that regime from embarking on adventurism in your areas of interest. (Solomons, Papua, New Guninea, etc.)

-naval reach to extend your influence and help- across to your friends and neutrals within the area and block his.

 

All of it we doscuss is geared so that you can outwait the dictator's regime while Australia  uses diplomacy and economics to nudge Indonesia's successor government into a friendly relations posture, post dictator.


 

This is more or less what Australia actually did. But Konfrontassi was ramped up hypothetically so the respnnse has to be within the limits.

 

I am not in Volkadav's corner suggesting a fleet of Coumties, and a couple squadrons of Vulcans. I'm just trying to figure out how to give Darwin a TALOS battery, swap Majestocs for Centaurs find the men and money for a couple of Counties, four squadrons of Sea Vixens, at least four squadrens of Drakens and the NADGE*1 to go with it, and do a Canberra bomber upgrade. (Introduce the AGM 76 as a standoff missile for anti-airbase strikes.

 

AGM-76...  This is a HUGE A2A FALCON rocket converted to an AGM It would have a Kerry's wallop at Mack 2+ and twice the effective range. 


       


 





Herald

My mistake on the Badger K, the confusion comes from the Indonesian of the Badger B also being called the Badger KS.
I am not in Volkadav's corner suggesting a fleet of Coumties, and a couple squadrons of Vulcans. I'm just trying to figure out how to give Darwin a TALOS battery, swap Majestocs for Centaurs find the men and money for a couple of Counties, four squadrons of Sea Vixens, at least four squadrens of Drakens and the NADGE*1 to go with it, and do a Canberra bomb
 
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Aussiegunneragain    Herald - Read this one, less typos   6/14/2009 8:47:32 AM
My mistake on the Badger K, the confusion comes from the Indonesian of the Badger B also being called the Badger KS.
 
I am not in Volkadav's corner suggesting a fleet of Coumties, and a couple squadrons of Vulcans. I'm just trying to figure out how to give Darwin a TALOS battery, swap Majestocs for Centaurs find the men and money for a couple of Counties, four squadrons of Sea Vixens, at least four squadrens of Drakens and the NADGE*1 to go with it, and do a Canberra bomber upgrade. (Introduce the AGM 76 as a standoff missile for anti-airbase strikes.
 
The point is that we couldn't afford a couple of Centaurs with airwings and escorts. Post WW2 we had defence spending of between 4% and 5% of GDP during the Korean War, during which time we managed to run the two Majestics. Once defence expenditure dropped to around 2.5% in the early 60's where it stayed until the mid 80's, we had to drop one of the carriers (see link below re defence expenditure). All that keeping defence at a higher level (say 3% to 4%) would have achieved would have been to maintain our two light carrier capability with the necessary upgrades and escorts. We might have swapped them for 1 Centaur, airwing and escorts but not two. 
 
The second point is that strike carriers weren't even the best way for us to defeat Indonesia as we had access to air bases within a reasonable range of anywhere where we would want to fight them. I do think the potential was there to increase the range of our land based air cover to improve coverage and persistance, either through improved tanking and/or more longer range aircraft. The light carriers were useful for the different task of being our contribution to allied efforts to ensure that materials got from Australia and the Middle East to potential areas of conflict with the Soviets and their allies, such as to Japan, the Korean Penninsula and in in the case of food back to the ME.
 
Even if our one Centaur had been available to go to sea against the Indo's when a conflict came around, placing close enough to Indonesian territory for it to effect a blockade or take strike action would have been far too risky in the face of airpower they had in the 60's. All they would have had to do would have been to tie up the interceptors with their land based fighters and let the Badgers launch. They were planning a raid with 6 Badgers (12 missiles) on the Dutch carrier Karal Doorman if it had come to blows over West Papua and even if the AS-1 was crap and our EW good you could count on at least one connecting with something per raid of that size. Remember thatwith all the great EW gear available in the 1980's even the USN didn't manage to stop all of the Exocets and crappy Silkworm missiles fired at them and the ships they escorted in the Persian Gulf tanker war. After 3 or 4 raids by the Indonesians you could count on the carrier being hit and with an 1300lb warhead on the missile, sunk. 
 
If we had chosen to spend more on defence I would rather have seen them upgrade the Sydney to the standard that the Melbourne was and supply it with a modern airwing and escort, so that we could always have a carrier on hand in case of war with the Soviets. I would also have upgraded our land based airpower capability with F-4's, tankers and maybe a squadron of some sort of medium/heavy bomber (Vulcans, B-47's, Victors all fit the bill) if we had any change, rather than tying up so much capital in the one Centaur led battle group.
 
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Aussiegunneragain    Herald - Read this one, less typos   6/14/2009 8:52:41 AM







don't forget that during Konfrontassi we also had Bloodhounds in place.  Badgers had to go continental if they intended to do a Pearl, and the only valuable property within their range was also within Bloodhound range.

If they wanted to do a Pearl they would have done it at low level, below the Bloodhound's operational altitude.




maybe not.  they were gunshy and not too keen about travelling around without escorts - none of their fixed wing pointy jets could have gone the distance - and they had even less effective ground control of those aircraft.  Even in the 60's we had a signal reach advantage over the Indons. they'd never done low level strike - Plus, even that silly claim that an ex indon aviation general made about flying over Alice Springs  was caveated with them going high to avoid the Bloodhounds (even though there were none at Alice, and even though Alice served no strategic benefit so WTF would they even try to fly to it in the first place. :)


Perhaps, but the capability of a low level strike (with pop up in case of an anti-airfield attack) was there if they had have wised up to it.
 
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Aussiegunneragain    I mean GF   6/14/2009 8:53:52 AM















don't forget that during Konfrontassi we also had Bloodhounds in place.  Badgers had to go continental if they intended to do a Pearl, and the only valuable property within their range was also within Bloodhound range.



If they wanted to do a Pearl they would have done it at low level, below the Bloodhound's operational altitude.










maybe not.  they were gunshy and not too keen about travelling around without escorts - none of their fixed wing pointy jets could have gone the distance - and they had even less effective ground control of those aircraft.  Even in the 60's we had a signal reach advantage over the Indons. they'd never done low level strike - Plus, even that silly claim that an ex indon aviation general made about flying over Alice Springs  was caveated with them going high to avoid the Bloodhounds (even though there were none at Alice, and even though Alice served no strategic benefit so WTF would they even try to fly to it in the first place. :)






Perhaps, but the capability of a low level strike (with pop up in case of an anti-airfield attack) was there if they had have wised up to it.



 
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Aussiegunneragain    Volkodav   6/14/2009 8:55:32 AM
Nice plan but we couldn't have afforded it. See my post to Herald for more details.
 
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StevoJH       6/14/2009 9:56:16 AM
Could a 1965 transfer of Centaur at scrap value have been paid for? Albion becomes available in 1973 but had been stripped of its catapult giving the option of either converting for Harriers or refitting the Arresting Wires and Catapult. Could the wires and catapult from Melbourne be transferred across?
 
Sea Vixens and A4's into the later 1978's when you refit them with a Ski Jump to carry Sea Harrier FRS.1. Replace with either the Invincible class or a stretched version by the late 1980's. When i talk about a stretched version of the Invincible class i'm fairly sure there were studies done in the 90's regarding a SLEP of the Invincibles including a hull plug forward of the island increasing the size of the airwing by a number of airframes.
 
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Volkodav    AG   6/14/2009 10:30:36 AM
It all comes down to priorities and ideology.
For instance National Service has been identified as one of the main factors Australia couldn't afford to mechanize the Army in the 50's or 60's. The cost of providing the necessary cadres to train intake after intake of national servicemen meant there was limited resources left to introduce new equipment and tactics, let alone a completely new order of battle. i.e. the government of the day chose to defend Australia with a conscripted Light Infantry Division and 2 CMF Light Infantry Divisions instead of the alternative of a regular Armoured Brigade and a regular Infantry Brigade, with the CMF providing another 2 brigades of each type. Two thirds the manpower similar cost, far more hiting power in a continental defence scenario. The trouble is the idea wasn't to defend Continental Australia from invasion it was to fight Indonesia in the Papuan Highlands.
 
The RAN at the same time was intended to provide an ASW escort group and a brigade amphibious lift in support of the RN in SEA. This priority was behind the RAN's concentration on ASW at a time when the regional submarine threat was minimal Common sense would have suggested that a smaller number of general purpose warships with decent Anti-air, surface and submarine capability would have been more useful than the slightly larger number of specialist ASW ships that were useless against air or surface targets (the Q class conversions) or of limited use (the River class) that formed a major part or our fleet.
 
The RAAF was operating a flying reserve using Mustangs, Vampires and Meteors. Large sums of money were being spent developing Australianised variants of types that were already approaching obsolescents, i.e the Avon Sabre when they entered servce. Instead the RAAF could have had reserve personnel working side by side with the regular personnel and have spent their cash on regularly updating their fleet with modern off the shelf types.
 
The money was there it was just being spent on other things that in hindsight may have been less useful or less value for money than what we could have had.
 
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Herald12345       6/14/2009 3:28:42 PM
My mistake on the Badger K, the confusion comes from the Indonesian of the Badger B also being called the Badger KS.
 
Maybe we confused each other. The Russians called the Badger B, the Tu-16 KS, and the Indonesians copied them.  
 
I am not in Volkadav's corner suggesting a fleet of Counties, and a couple squadrons of Vulcans. I'm just trying to figure out how to give Darwin a TALOS battery, swap Majestics for Centaurs find the men and money for a couple of Counties, four squadrons of Sea Vixens, at least four squadrons of Drakens and the NADGE*1 to go with it, and do a Canberra bomber upgrade. (Introduce the AGM 76 as a standoff missile for anti-airbase strikes.
 
^1 Forgot to tell you that the national air defense ground environment was the English translation for Swedish term for SAGE.
 
The point is that we couldn't afford a couple of Centaurs with airwings and escorts. Post WW2 we had defence spending of between 4% and 5% of GDP during the Korean War, during which time we managed to run the two Majestics. Once defence expenditure dropped to around 2.5% in the early 60's where it stayed until the mid 80's, we had to drop one of the carriers (see link below re defence expenditure). All that keeping defence at a higher level (say 3% to 4%) would have achieved would have been to maintain our two light carrier capability with the necessary upgrades and escorts. We might have swapped them for 1 Centaur, airwing and escorts but not two. 
 
I've looked at this. The big heartburns are programmed purchases and operating costs and I've tried to factor those in. it as I discussed. My baseline was money was 2.5 % of GDP. I'm glad to see my assumptions were not too far off.  It turns out that pourchasing the hull of a Centaur was 6-8% greater than the Majestics you did purchase. The problem is that you modernized the Majestics (one) with exactly the same kind of deck and handling machinery that you would use that I need to allow you to operate the aircraft that we discuss here EXCEPT the lifts. Too quote Volkadav, steel is cheap. You should have bought the Centaurs.     
 
The second point is that strike carriers weren't even the best way for us to defeat Indonesia as we had access to air bases within a reasonable range of anywhere where we would want to fight them. I do think the potential was there to increase the range of our land based air cover to improve coverage and persistence, either through improved tanking and/or more longer range aircraft. The light carriers were useful for the different task of being our contribution to allied efforts to ensure that materials got from Australia and the Middle East to potential areas of conflict with the Soviets and their allies, such as to Japan, the Korean Peninsula and in in the case of food back to the ME.

The light carriers allowed you do something that we realized as far back as Magic Carpet and even during later operations in WW II: move lots of troops and their equipment in a big hurry. Where do you think the LPH for us came from?  An aircraft carri
 
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