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Subject: Unregulated Greed; a sad state of the human psyche...
fall out    10/6/2008 6:56:31 PM
A lot of these problems now occuring with the global financial and economic system is in part due to too many (affluent) people placing greed and the never ending thirst for fatter profits over prudent investing and regulated and steady asset and profit building. The worst now is that us, as in the humbled taxpayers are now going to pay not just with money in order to bail out these scum but many may also indirectly lose their job/life savings and what happens, how do we fix it? Just pump more money into these areas...and what do you think will happen? Not sure if anyone heard about how much money Richard Fuld (head of the firm) took home from the now failed Lehman Brothers investment firm over the last 8 years? $300m USD since 2000!!! Believe it or not he admitted that during the time he was pleading with congress and the federal treasury for a bail out he also requested another multi-million bonus! Not sure about you guys but to be honest this stuff makes me incredibly angry and sick...these pr(cks take home more money in one bonus than the majority of the world's workers take home in a lifetime of hard work and yet the state generally on the whole leaves them alone, if not encourages them to speculate more investments, etc. Capitalism hey, what a disgusting, disgraceful part of human history...oh how I would love for real socialism/communism to take a firm hold in Australia and around the world. You never know, we might actually then start addressing some real issues such as climate change, global poverty and hunger, gender inbalance in the workforce (and pay), universal healthcare and education. One can dream during this fast turning financial nightmare. FO
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan    Capitalism per se didn't fail   10/16/2008 6:13:23 PM
Because the essence of capitalism involves a level playing field in addition to government intervention.  Not all regulations are purely for the purpose of a government flexing its muscles, companies/individuals in dominant positions in their respective fields or the same  parties not in dominant positions but with the right connections push the government to intervene on their behalf either by helping them or hobbling their competition.  At that point, capitalism ceases to exist and nepotism and even communism take hold.
 
Lobbyists, kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out.
 
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gf0012-aust       10/26/2008 4:36:33 PM
I added this to T5C the other day but omitted to post it here. oops.
 

 
?Clubbed like baby seals? controversy ? the back story

As I originally observed, all we had to do was wait a few days and the full story would begin to come out. My call was spot on. Since the RAND presentation has now come into the public spotlight ? it?s been posted on Stephen Trimble?s blog, ?The DEW Line? (Trimble is a respected, award-winning aerospace journalist for Flight International) ? people can now read it and make up their own minds regarding what the The West Australian claimed was a demonstration based on ?highly-classified simulated dogfights? that proved the JSF had been ?comprehensively beaten ? [by] Russian-built Sukhoi fighters?.[21] It also means I can fill in more of the back story as an illustration of why I don?t believe in jumping at the first chance to believe something controversial appearing in the general press.

The August 2008 Pacific Vision conference at Hickam AFB, Hawaii was indeed a top secret simulation, but it was really focused on logistics issues, not a full-fledged wargame with combat missions being flown. In fact, as Maj. Gen. Davis (USAF) noted, it ?did not even address air-to-air combat effectiveness.?[22] The only time air combat effectiveness was addressed at the conference was in an unclassified (but ?For Official Use Only / Sensitive?) RAND briefing entitled ?Air Combat Past, Present and Future? presented by two RAND analysts, John Stillion and Scott Perdue. Despite the title ? and as RAND?s Director Andrew Hoehn has affirmed ? it was not an ?attempt[ed] detailed adjudication of air-to-air combat?, much less an assessment of the performance of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, per se.[23] If it had been, it would have been performed and presented by a different organization within RAND.

The presenters are from an ?East Coast RAND? office that focuses mainly on strategic and policy issues; detailed aircraft performance assessments are conducted by a ?West Coast RAND? office whose members actually have clearances that would permit them access to actual performance data of the F-35, as well as competitor and threat aircraft like the various Sukhoi fighters. These specialists not only had no participation in the preparation of the material that was presented, but they didn?t know about it until everyone else started hearing about it afterwards. So much for the ?proof? that the F-35 had been ?comprehensively beaten? by Sukhoi fighters. The actual aim of the presentation was to provide a Gedankenspiel ? through a reductio ad absurdum approach (with Pk?s of 1.00 and zero for Blue and Red, respectively) ? to question the future validity of certain assumptions regarding (their) concept of the primary requirements for achieving and maintaining air superiority in the Pacific region. Their assessments (to the degree they are valid) have an obvious bearing on airbasing and logistics in the area ? the subject of the Pacific Vision wargame.

The main presentation ended with slide 54. The only place the F-35 is mentioned is in the side excursion on slide 52. So where did the ?clubbing baby seals? results come from? It is my understanding that during the Q&A, two of the backup slides were shown: numbers 78 and 79. Here, in a nutshell, is the ?proof? that the JSF had been ?comprehensively beaten ? [by] Russian-built Sukhoi fighters?. However, it?s not a RAND analysis, but rather comes from Dr. Carlo Kopp?s and Mr. Peter Goon?s Air Power Australia (APA) think tank. (Other material and data in the pitch also come courtesy of the APA.) I am told the RAND authors have cordial relations with and are much enamored with Kopp?s and Goon?s work; these two gentlemen are avid proponents of the view that Australia must have the F-22 ? and only the F-22 ? and that its F-111s should be retained until they are available. They have published an extensive corpus of analysis to ?prove? that all other alternatives would have a ?disastrous impact? on the viability of Australian airpower.[24] The ?assessment? that Sukhois would ?club F-35s like baby seals? was a verbal aside (obviously made in jest) by one of the presenters. A catchy phrase like that made relative to an issue of great contention in Australia was of course irresistible to the press (which apparently was not about to risk losing such a good headline by responsible fact-checking).

As far as a proper analysis goes, this is not a very good one inasmuch as it appears to have been written expressly to come to the given conclusion. Although it does make some valid points, there are so many flaws in the assumptions, analytical approach and even data, that it is surprising that RAND approved it for release in the first place. The basic scenario, with six F-22s pr
 
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gf0012-aust       10/26/2008 6:42:03 PM
 
I immediately think of the intelligentsia and the leftists favourite academic, Noam Chomsky after listening to this.

 
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HERALD1357       10/26/2008 7:42:32 PM

A lot of these problems now occuring with the global financial and economic system is in part due to too many (affluent) people placing greed and the never ending thirst for fatter profits over prudent investing and regulated and steady asset and profit building. The worst now is that us, as in the humbled taxpayers are now going to pay not just with money in order to bail out these scum but many may also indirectly lose their job/life savings and what happens, how do we fix it? Just pump more money into these areas...and what do you think will happen?

Not sure if anyone heard about how much money Richard Fuld (head of the firm) took home from the now failed Lehman Brothers investment firm over the last 8 years? $300m USD since 2000!!! Believe it or not he admitted that during the time he was pleading with congress and the federal treasury for a bail out he also requested another multi-million bonus!

Not sure about you guys but to be honest this stuff makes me incredibly angry and sick...these pr(cks take home more money in one bonus than the majority of the world's workers take home in a lifetime of hard work and yet the state generally on the whole leaves them alone, if not encourages them to speculate more investments, etc.

Capitalism hey, what a disgusting, disgraceful part of human history...oh how I would love for real socialism/communism to take a firm hold in Australia and around the world. You never know, we might actually then start addressing some real issues such as climate change, global poverty and hunger, gender inbalance in the workforce (and pay), universal healthcare and education.

One can dream during this fast turning financial nightmare.

FO
Incorrect, FO. The heart of this disaster was US Governement Sponsored Enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) making loans not based ion sound business practices.  The loans were made to achieve a social engineering objective-a private home for every American possible.
 
the problem was that when this social; program was rammed through as part of the GSE charters, our Congress, as it usually does, failed to insure against the No Income No Jobs No Assets [NINJA] moptgages issued to the tine of about 3 trillion dollars. Those "subprime" loans are where the defaults started. why that led to our current crisis is because those mortgages we5re bundlwe3d and used as "giovernment backed collateral" for loans against Hedge funds and commercial banks.
 
Well no value is no value. Once the real estate equity was revealed to be ":zero", the noin-government backed mortgage backed securities loan collateral was worthless. It wouldn't matter if the regulations and the greed was not in place. The US collapse would come. Market forces would see to that.  
 
Thus the root cause of this global panic is the US social engineering experiment.
 
Capitalism did not fail us, It was the refusal by our Congress [loans need collateral worth] to follow sound capitalist principles that did.
 
Herald
 
 

 
 

 
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Nanheyangrouchuan    partisan stuff aside   10/27/2008 6:20:35 PM

I wouldn't say I have a "theory" but have a fuzzy idea as to a bigger problem that might be behind the financial crisis. It isn't capitalism (in its purest, textbook form), it is beyond human greed or international politics or US partisanship.  What I do need to know is what are the specific names of the equations that are used for modern financial performance projections and especially derivatives trading.

 
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HERALD1357       10/27/2008 8:49:29 PM

I wouldn't say I have a "theory" but have a fuzzy idea as to a bigger problem that might be behind the financial crisis. It isn't capitalism (in its purest, textbook form), it is beyond human greed or international politics or US partisanship.  What I do need to know is what are the specific names of the equations that are used for modern financial performance projections and especially derivatives trading.



And who controls that information?...........that is a good point. Thought of it and dismissed it as kook aide conspiracy stuff because I thought it was distributed knowledge among the trading community, but had not realized that chicanery was mechanically possible that way if the process wasn't transparent..
 
Herald
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       10/27/2008 10:17:04 PM




I wouldn't say I have a "theory" but have a fuzzy idea as to a bigger problem that might be behind the financial crisis. It isn't capitalism (in its purest, textbook form), it is beyond human greed or international politics or US partisanship.  What I do need to know is what are the specific names of the equations that are used for modern financial performance projections and especially derivatives trading.







And who controls that information?...........that is a good point. Thought of it and dismissed it as kook aide conspiracy stuff because I thought it was distributed knowledge among the trading community, but had not realized that chicanery was mechanically possible that way if the process wasn't transparent..

 

Herald



I'm not one to sully my reputation on this board with baseless, kool-aid induced conspiracy theories from far right field.  No, the angle I am coming from is a massive lack of control over something we thought we could control. 
 
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gf0012-aust       10/28/2008 5:09:34 AM
can we agree to disagree and get back to the hypocrisy of australian politics?
 
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Aussiegunneragain    Nan   10/28/2008 9:54:28 AM










I wouldn't say I have a "theory" but have a fuzzy idea as to a bigger problem that might be behind the financial crisis. It isn't capitalism (in its purest, textbook form), it is beyond human greed or international politics or US partisanship.  What I do need to know is what are the specific names of the equations that are used for modern financial performance projections and especially derivatives trading.















And who controls that information?...........that is a good point. Thought of it and dismissed it as kook aide conspiracy stuff because I thought it was distributed knowledge among the trading community, but had not realized that chicanery was mechanically possible that way if the process wasn't transparent..



 



Herald









I'm not one to sully my reputation on this board with baseless, kool-aid induced conspiracy theories from far right field.  No, the angle I am coming from is a massive lack of control over something we thought we could control. 


I'm not an expert in financial forcasting but I know enough about economics that I can tell you any sort of economic projection is basically weather guessing. Forecasters deal with a massively complex system which can be impacted by a very large array of variables and nobody can reasonably predict which is going to impact when and how. In fact if we could predict that then there would be no need for derivatives, as they are risk management vehicles when they are used properly.
 
All that forecasters can reasonably hope to do is to identify trends with a range of risks around them based on the best information available. Sometimes that information isn't available or isn't considered properly (for whatever reason, workload, over-optimism ... whatever) and the projections are wrong. Combine that with other circumstances like the poor US policy settings wrtaffordable  mortgages for the poor and things can go kerplunk.  
 
Se La Vie
 
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