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Subject: Out of our depth
Volkodav    5/3/2008 7:30:37 AM
from The Australian

Patrick Walters, National security editor | May 03, 2008

JUST before dusk last Sunday a company of Australian commandos readied themselves for an assault on a suspected Taliban position in a rugged mountain valley 25km south of their base at Tarin Kowt, Afghanistan.

It was a typical clearance mission for the special forces task group. The Australians, consisting of a 100-strong company-sized force from the 4th Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment, fanned out along the edge of a broad river valley surrounded by rugged hill country perfectly suited for guerilla warfare. The commandos were preparing to take on a group of Taliban fighters concealed on higher ground further along the valley.

Equipped with long-range patrol vehicles, the lead assault platoon gingerly edged its way forward along the exposed dusty tracks below, wary of the ever-present threat posed by roadside bombs. Suddenly they came under sustained fire from Taliban insurgents positioned above them more than 500m away.

Operating in small groups, Taliban fighters had carefully manoeuvred around the flank of the Australian force and opened up with small arms and rocket-propelled grenades.

The firefight, which killed 4RAR commando Jason Marks and wounded four of his comrades, went on for more than three hours before the Taliban broke off the contact. The incident once again exemplified the fighting prowess of the Taliban, regarded by the Australians as some of the toughest opponents they have encountered.

"The whole action is testament to the professional confidence of the Taliban. They are extremely hard, professional fighters. They closed on us without hesitation, without waiting to be attacked," observes one military source of Sunday's encounter. Adds another senior Australian Defence Force source: "They are learning and adapting faster than us. They gather intelligence on us and then they disappear into local communities."

This latest action further underlines the challenge that confronts Australia's 1000-strong military in Afghanistan. How to defeat a hardy, mobile and resourceful foe that melts in and out of the local population and just keeps coming back even after suffering heavy casualties?

The hard-headed assessment of some of our best military minds is that Australia will have to exert a great deal more will and determination to prevail in Oruzgan province.

From a military perspective, we are not gaining ground, tactically or strategically. It's time for our military leaders and the Rudd Government to fundamentally reassess the mission entrusted to our Diggers.

For years the rhetoric from the Australian government about the vital strategic importance of the struggle in Afghanistan has not been matched by a commensurate physical commitment of military and civil resources.

"In Oruzgan we are hanging on with barely enough resources to maintain the status quo. It's not enough to be decisive. At best we are holding our ground. We are not doing the heavy lifting or doing the strategic planning," one senior military source tellsInquirer.

An Australian government source with first-hand knowledge of Afghanistan agrees with his view: "It is the case that we need more troops," he acknowledges. "At the moment we have a capacity to clear and not hold, let alone provide a shield for civil operations to work."

But our defence force has a strict cap on the number of troops deployed to Afghanistan. This ceiling has meant that the recent decision to provide an operational mentoring and liaison team to train an Afghan national army battalion has reduced the number of our army engineers just as they have started to achieve a positive effect in building and reconstruction work around Tarin Kowt.

The ADF needs to reassess how we manage the Afghanistan war from the military perspective, including command arrangements.

With the Dutch widely expected to phase down their force levels in Oruzgan from 2010, the expectation of Australia's closest allies led by the US is that we will take over responsibility for the province. The Dutch have more than 1700 military in Afghanistan including a ready reaction force headquartered in Tarin Kowt.

Australia's commanders in Afghanistan should be given the planning staff and military hardware they need, not just to conduct offensive operations but to co-ordinate reconstruction with agencies such as AusAID and the Australian Federal Police.

Mike Hindmarsh, the commander of the Australian forces in the Middle East area of operations, which includes Afghanistan, is fighting the war with one hand tied behind his back.

Headquartered in Baghdad, the Australian theatre command should be converted to a fully operational command and relocated as Afghanistan becomes our main military endeavour. With the pullout of Australian ground forces in southern Iraq and a likely drawdown in East Timor during the next year, the ADF could plan on inserting a fully equipped battle group into Oruzgan in addition to the existing special forces tasks group and our engineers.

But Kevin Rudd and his chief military advisers remain extremely wary of being strategically trapped in Afghanistan and held hostage to a dysfunctional NATO-led command in Kabul charged with overseeing the stabilisation of Afghanistan.

Our defence leaders have cautioned the Government against any larger Australian military effort.

Rudd and Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon argue that Australia will consider lifting its troop commitment only if NATO members first lift their own military presence.

"This is not a blank cheque and it (Australia's military commitment) will be subject to rolling annual review," Rudd told reporters this week.

Fitzgibbon tells Inquirer the Government cannot predict how Oruzgan will progress in coming months "and therefore how long it is necessary for Australia to remain involved". He will not be drawn on what will happen in Oruzgan should the Dutch withdraw their ground forces.

"But given we are a non-NATO country and given our size I am very keen that Australia should not take lead responsibility in Oruzgan province," he stresses.

As with its predecessor, the Rudd Government has presented a distorted picture of the role of Australian troops relative to the efforts of other allied forces in Afghanistan.

The overwhelming impression is that only we and our traditional allies are doing the real heavy lifting. The fact is the Americans, British, Canadians, Germans, Spanish, Dutch, Danish, French, Italian and Romanians have all suffered more deaths in their military operations in Afghanistan than Australia has.

Australia has lost just five soldiers in its on-again, off-again deployments to Afghanistan since late 2001.

By contrast, tiny Denmark has lost 15 soldiers in combat operations. It has recently doubled its combat forces in troubled Helmand province to 700 troops. As casualties mount, political and public support at home for the Danish deployment has hardened.

This week Rudd outlined the strategic rationale for Australia's military commitment to Afghanistan, reiterating our formal obligation to help Washington under the ANZUS treaty.

"We are there because a failed state was giving open succour and support to a global terrorist organisation, al-Qa'ida, which then attacked our ally the US on September 11, 2001, and in the process murdered 3000 people. We, as a consequence of our alliance with the US, embarked upon a combined military action with them. Nothing has changed since then."

It is a message Rudd needs to hammer home to an Australian electorate still transfixed by the US-led disaster in Iraq.

Afghanistan matters and we must make Oruzgan work.

CIA boss Michael Hayden on Thursday observed that the US viewed Islamist terrorism as an "overwhelming international challenge", which required as a precondition for winning that "we take the fight to the enemy".

Not long ago a US commander in Afghanistan observed to a senior Australian army officer that a "dog without much bark should have more bite". It was a none too subtle message from our old ally that more is expected from our military in the grim struggle that lies ahead in Afghanistan.
 
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Enterpriser    Hmmm....really?   5/4/2008 7:13:48 AM
Saw this article on Friday night/Saturday morning and was wondering:
 
A) Whether there is any realistic scope for an Australian battlegroup in addition to our current forces in-country?
 
 - as a corollary to that How do the program plans match with the estimated time lines for the above? (SPA, Tiger, Chinooks etc)
 
C) What scope is there for using an Australian deployment as a tool to keep Canada and the Dutch engaged beyond 2010?
 
Brett.
 
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Volkodav       5/4/2008 7:51:06 AM
Assuming we are talking 2010 I wonder if a Sqn of Abrams, a company or two of M113 AS4's, maybe a Sqn each of Tigers, MRH90's and F/A-18F's might be on the cards to re enforce our current commitment?
 
This would dramatically increase our combat power in country , but due to the nature of the forces the increased size of the force would likely reduce the threat to or forces rather than increase it.
 
Quote    Reply

BLUIE006       5/4/2008 10:14:29 AM
SOF ( SASR/Commando/ other) - Increased personal numbers
Engineers (maintain existing/rotate)
 
New additions:
 
Cavalry Regiment   - with new ASLAV AMS (Armored Mortar System) /  ASLAV TOW Variants added
2nd/14th Light Horse Regiment (QMI)
21st Construction Squadron
Combat Support Element /MP
Australian Army Intelligence Corps/DIO/ASIS/AFP (INT) - Special Recon/ Special intelligence activities/SRR/Counter-Intelligence/Psy-Ops
 
Attack Helicopter element ( Tiger ARH -6-8 Aircraft)
Manned Recon Helicopters
HIgh-Mid - Lo UAV/UCAV + VTUAV
2nd Armored Squadron ( 24 M1A2 Abrams) - New armored unit
105mm towed/155mm SP Artillery (16 K9)
GMLRS/MLRS ( acquire and update old NATO stock)
MRH / V-22
AC-130 ( acquire ex US )
Additional Bushmasters
HQ/C4I
 
 
 Seems that firepower and airborne recon and improved intelligence, would assit Aussie forces  over there at the moment...
 
Quote    Reply

BLUIE006       5/4/2008 10:45:11 AM

SOF ( SASR/Commando/ other) - Increased personal numbers

Engineers (maintain existing/rotate)

 

New additions:

 

Cavalry Regiment   - with new ASLAV AMS (Armored Mortar System) /  ASLAV TOW Variants added

2nd/14th Light Horse Regiment (QMI)

21st Construction Squadron

Combat Support Element /MP

Australian Army Intelligence Corps/DIO/ASIS/AFP (INT) - Special Recon/ Special intelligence activities/SRR/Counter-Intelligence/Psy-Ops

 

Attack Helicopter element ( Tiger ARH -6-8 Aircraft)

Manned Recon Helicopters

HIgh-Mid - Lo UAV/UCAV + VTUAV

2nd Armored Squadron ( 24 M1A2 Abrams) - New armored unit

105mm towed/155mm SP Artillery (16 K9)

GMLRS/MLRS ( acquire and update old NATO stock)

MRH / V-22

AC-130 ( acquire ex US )

Additional Bushmasters

HQ/C4I

 

 

 Seems that firepower and airborne recon and improved intelligence, would assit Aussie forces  over there at the moment...


Light Horse/ could conduct LRRP/Security patrol activities etc allowing SOF to concentrate on direct action and winning hearts and minds etc   - during large operations numbers and firepower could be drawn from light horse/cavalry to support SOF..
 
Increased UAV/Airborne recon  to provide improved battlespace awareness...etc
 
Indigenous artillery/ amour and close air support ..... a number of advantages!!!
 
AC-130 seem ideal to deliver high volume of fire to support ops, long range , patrol time ....
 
Intelligence Corps & SOF focus on recruiting local spies and informants , and source local information etc ( this also requires funding)
 
Intelligence Corps/MPs conduct aggressive counter- intelligence ops
 
Engineers/construction teams work closely with intelligence to wind hearts and minds and conduct psy-ops....
 
 
Close air support / Mortar seem to be urgent requirements.....  along with ROE changes...

 
 
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Arty Farty       5/4/2008 11:24:13 PM
Looks like you're describing a Marine Expeditionary Unit. btw/ the 24th MEU that just arrived in S. A'stan doubled the Coalition's air power.
 
Instead of Australia declaring they're un-committed about further increases; DoD should make it publicly known that they are willing to deploy a battlegroup of x-amount if others are willing to deploy. At the moment it's a staring match between the non-US countries - the Chicken game.
 
 
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BLUIE006       5/5/2008 7:27:18 AM
I think we should use increased deployement as a tool to obtain military hardware on the cheap...?
 
"We'll do the job... however we are short on XYZ and we need access to this this and that .... btw we can't afford to pay full price .. for those M1A2/GMLRS/PZH-2000 etc soo we were wondering if due to our commitment and increased deployment in the GWOT and the cost associated with it, if you'd sell us some old stock for MATES  rates .... "
 
I'm sure some European NATO countries would be interested;given there reluctance to engage direct action.... 
 
 
 
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Herald12345    Not to put to fine a point on it......   5/5/2008 9:03:47 AM

Looks like you're describing a Marine Expeditionary Unit. btw/ the 24th MEU that just arrived in S. A'stan doubled the Coalition's air power.

 

Instead of Australia declaring they're un-committed about further increases; DoD should make it publicly known that they are willing to deploy a battlegroup of x-amount if others are willing to deploy. At the moment it's a staring match between the non-US countries - the Chicken game.

 


But shouldn't the question be, what is in Australia's interest here? I can see why the US NEEDS to be in Afghanistan, but the logistics is terrible, the costs enormous, and  the mission  really difficult. We appreciate the help, we really do, but is there some compelling NEED for Australia to be there? There are other trouble spots that concern Australia and US  more and where the resources and MONEY are probably more needed and justified.  I can think of the Solomons, PNG, and  East Timor [Indonesia, Philippines] off the top of my head.  If you put an entire regiment into Afghanistan, that is a huge chunk of the Australian Army.and your defense budget.

Somehow, don't know why, but I've got the sinking feeling, that your own neighborhood is about to turn dicey in a couple of years, and you are going to need everything you have in the cupboard, just to contain the crisis.

Herald

 
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Volkodav       5/5/2008 9:18:44 AM
I can think of the Solomons, PNG, and  East Timor [Indonesia, Philippines]
 
Interestingly things are already improving in our region due to a more favourable attitude to Australia from regional leaders since our change of government.
 
Its not that Rudd or Smith have done anything monumental to improve relations but rather that they are not John Howard or Alexander Downer, who were perceived (rightly or wrongly) to be condescending, imperialistic and possibly racist by our neighbours.
 
I suppose we were seen as a hated school prefect and bullies, now we are seen as friends who are willing to lend a hand.
 
Nothing has changed but the perceptions.
 
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Herald12345       5/5/2008 4:55:58 PM

I can think of the Solomons, PNG, and  East Timor [Indonesia, Philippines]

 

Interestingly things are already improving in our region due to a more favourable attitude to Australia from regional leaders since our change of government.

 

Its not that Rudd or Smith have done anything monumental to improve relations but rather that they are not John Howard or Alexander Downer, who were perceived (rightly or wrongly) to be condescending, imperialistic and possibly racist by our neighbours.

 

I suppose we were seen as a hated school prefect and bullies, now we are seen as friends who are willing to lend a hand.

 

Nothing has changed but the perceptions.

CRS report to US Congress.

The US is distracted. Even if means just technical aid missions and peacekeeping, the area is being set up as another future PRC bandit satrapy much like has happened to Africa. The US is in the beginning [Africom] of a decades long effort to undo the damage the Beijing bastards and their  stooges have done in  such  places as Niger, the Sudan, etc.

Given the way these Beijing bandits work by suborning and corrupting governments from the top down; before they move in to rape and pillage the locals; we need a friend in region with "political clean hands" to either prevent the process or to help clean up the mess.

Fighting in Afghanistan with a full ancillary commitment is a political and military distraction, YOU don't need.

Herald
 
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Aussiegunneragain       5/7/2008 9:53:58 AM
I'm inclined to agree with Herald about the need to take care in committing extra forces to Afghanistan or anywhere else. Australia has a special responsibility WRT the South Pacific and East Timor as frankly, we are the only ones who are going to deploy sufficient troops there to deal with any problems. Most of the NATO nations operating in Afghanistan, save the US and perhaps Britain and France, don't have comparable levels of responsiblity for their size. 
With a reletively small army, we can't afford to frit away away battle groups in overseas theatres.
 
At the very most we should commit the battle group that we are taking out of Iraq to Afghanistan, but only on the proviso that it doesn't result in other nations thinking that they can reduce their troop numbers. Otherwise it won't result in any net gain on the ground and we will just be picking up the tab for somebody elses responsiblity. In particular I think the government should link such a deployment to pressuring the Dutch to their decision on their troop withdrawl in 2010. The murder of Theo Van Gough highlighted the fact that 1 million Muslims live in Holland, so they could potentially be subject to a significant threat if Afghanistan again becomes a haven for extremists who develop links overseas. As such they should be making this contribution for their own security. The argument could be made that a combined Australian/Dutch taskforce boosted with an extra Australian BG might reduce the risks to the troops of both nations, making staying in Afghanistan more paletable to the Dutch.
 
And Volkodav, just because the South Pacific leaders like the apparent soft touch of the new Labor government, doesn't mean that the underlying problems that are likely to lead to instability (poverty and corruption) have gone. I would actually argue that the fact that Labor is likely to be softer on accountability than the Coalition were, is likely to make corruption in the region worse. Hawke's apologist style certainly didn't do the East Timorese any good when he was dividing up their gas reserves with his good mate Surhato in 1989. Keatings apologism for the PNG government was equally destructive for the Bouganvillians, who were on the recieving end of PNG's Australian-armed and equipped Army in the fight over the Australian owned copper mine on that island.
 
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BLUIE006       5/11/2008 6:40:41 AM
 
Heavy Artillery and Tanks are not likely required in the pacific theater in the foreseeable future, we need light infantry,Marines,Airborne and SOF and Naval Forces for these areas...
 
By Cavalry assuming some of the roles in Central Asia... other light SOF forces could re task for south east Asian ops
 
Providing Aussie troops the tools & firepower they need to go after Al-Qeada in there homeland can only assist Security in South- East Asia ......
 
When the Iraq Troop numbers are withdrawn , we should provide more Firepower!!! to our existing troops in Afghanistan
 
 
Quote    Reply

Aussiegunneragain       5/11/2008 9:09:41 AM

 

Heavy Artillery and Tanks are not likely required in the pacific theater in the foreseeable future, we need light infantry,Marines,Airborne and SOF and Naval Forces for these areas...

By Cavalry assuming some of the roles in Central Asia... other light SOF forces could re task for south east Asian ops

Providing Aussie troops the tools & firepower they need to go after Al-Qeada in there homeland can only assist Security in South- East Asia ......

When the Iraq Troop numbers are withdrawn , we should provide more Firepower!!! to our existing troops in Afghanistan 

 
Bluie,
 
1. I wouldn't count on not requiring heavy forces in the Pacific. It would only take $5 Million dollars worth of drug money to arm militia with AK's and RPG's in ET, PNG or the Solomons, or for Fiji's very well trained and armed military to get seriously out of control and to start ethnic cleansing Indians, for us to need to deploy them.
 
2. Heavy forces have a role in Afghanistan, but as support for infantry. It is a very high intensity COIN operation with the Taliban sheltering amongst the civilian population and unless you plan to flatten every village that might shelter Taliban (the Russian's tried that, it didn't work), boots on the ground are what is needed. Try kicking in a door in an ASLAV and you will see what I mean ... and I'd note that they also don't deploy especially well in mountainous terrain.
 
3. As I explained before, if we just deploy more assets and it results in NATO countries or even the US withdrawing troops, then we haven't really achieved much apart from making ourselves feel hairy chested, have we.
 
Quote    Reply

ThePuss       5/12/2008 4:11:48 AM

I wouldn't count on not requiring heavy forces in the Pacific. It would only take $5 Million dollars worth of drug money to arm militia with AK's and RPG's in ET, PNG or the Solomons, or for Fiji's very well trained and armed military to get seriously out of control and to start ethnic cleansing Indians, for us to need to deploy them.

 
Umm.... the good Commodore undertook the coup to protect the the "ethnic Indians" from being cleansed mate. This guy is the man who stopped  George Speight  and his chronies in both the 2000 and 2006 attempts of the Fijians nationalists to get rid of the "ethnic" indian's. So unless the good Commodore gets nocked on the head I dont think the ethnic indians have anything much to worry about.
 
 
 
Quote    Reply

Aussiegunneragain       5/12/2008 6:20:30 AM




I wouldn't count on not requiring heavy forces in the Pacific. It would only take $5 Million dollars worth of drug money to arm militia with AK's and RPG's in ET, PNG or the Solomons, or for Fiji's very well trained and armed military to get seriously out of control and to start ethnic cleansing Indians, for us to need to deploy them.



 


Umm.... the good Commodore undertook the coup to protect the the "ethnic Indians" from being cleansed mate. This guy is the man who stopped  George Speight  and his chronies in both the 2000 and 2006 attempts of the Fijians nationalists to get rid of the "ethnic" indian's. So unless the good Commodore gets nocked on the head I dont think the ethnic indians have anything much to worry about.

Granted that the Indian's are protected for now, but people like the "Good Commodore" can be removed from their positions rather quickly in such situations. That would leave you with a country that is racially divided with one group dominating a military that is very well trained and armed to the teeth. Don't forget that it was the military who bounced the democratically elected government on an anti-Indian agenda in the 1987 coup. I think it is reasonable to assume that factions holding those views might still exist. I also wouldn't rule out the place going feral, with military factions having a go at each other. Either way, its just one more good reason not to have our heavy forces galavanting around the globe.
 
Quote    Reply

BLUIE006       5/12/2008 7:19:24 AM




 



Heavy Artillery and Tanks are not likely required in the pacific theater in the foreseeable future, we need light infantry,Marines,Airborne and SOF and Naval Forces for these areas...



By Cavalry assuming some of the roles in Central Asia... other light SOF forces could re task for south east Asian ops



Providing Aussie troops the tools & firepower they need to go after Al-Qeada in there homeland can only assist Security in South- East Asia ......



When the Iraq Troop numbers are withdrawn , we should provide more Firepower!!! to our existing troops in Afghanistan 



 

Bluie,

 

1. I wouldn't count on not requiring heavy forces in the Pacific. It would only take $5 Million dollars worth of drug money to arm militia with AK's and RPG's in ET, PNG or the Solomons, or for Fiji's very well trained and armed military to get seriously out of control and to start ethnic cleansing Indians, for us to need to deploy them.

 

2. Heavy forces have a role in Afghanistan, but as support for infantry. It is a very high intensity COIN operation with the Taliban sheltering amongst the civilian population and unless you plan to flatten every village that might shelter Taliban (the Russian's tried that, it didn't work), boots on the ground are what is needed. Try kicking in a door in an ASLAV and you will see what I mean ... and I'd note that they also don't deploy especially well in mountainous terrain.

 

3. As I explained before, if we just deploy more assets and it results in NATO countries or even the US withdrawing troops, then we haven't really achieved much apart from making ourselves feel hairy chested, have we.


I totally agree that deploying a wont help if NATO withdraw troops, I was talking more from the point of the original article in that, we take over from the Dutch .... as part of a revised strategy ....
and fair enough deploying a battle group is a tad excited ...  however it seems that organic fire support ( of any kind) would have a number of advantages.....
 
 

 
 
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