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Subject: ADF must equip for Asia threat: paper
Volkodav    3/24/2008 3:08:23 AM
March 24, 2008
THE Australian Defence Force of the future will need advanced capabilities to "rip the arm off" any threatening Asian power.

A new paper says, that could include up to 400 advanced combat aircraft, 30 submarines, ballistic missile defence and an ability to conduct cyber-attack.

Study author Professor Ross Babbage said the primary challenge for the upcoming Defence White Paper was to shape Australia's security approach out to around 2050.

Professor Babbage, a former senior defence official and now member of the panel to advise Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon on the white paper, said Australia's most pervasive challenge was likely to be the rise of major Asian powers.

His paper, based on comments made at a forum late last year, are published in the latest edition of the Kokoda Foundation Security Challenges series.

He said Australia would need to learn to walk amongst the giants - Indonesia, China and India - all with immensely larger populations, economies and military forces.

"Nevertheless, despite the myriad uncertainties, the seemingly irresistible strategic tide with which Australian defence planners will need to come to terms is that the country will be walking among giants, some of whom may not be friendly," he said.

One option would be a modernised version of the current ADF, capable of modest independent operations in partnership with the US.

Professor Babbage said that only made sense if the strategic environment of 2025-40 was similar to today.

"A strong case can be made that, in the markedly altered future we seem likely to face, Australian governments will want rather more from the defence organisation," he said.

Professor Babbage said a possible alternative was the flexible deterrent option, able to deter and if need be cripple a belligerent Asian giant which sought to coerce or strike at vital Australian interests.

That force would be able to perform all current defence activities with one major difference.

"It would contain a careful mix of capabilities that could in extremis rip an arm off any major Asian power that sought to attack Australia," he said.

Such a force could feature a number of key capabilities such as a naval force of up to 30 submarines (currently Australia has six) and strong air defence and strike capabilities with up to 400 aircraft equivalent to the Lockheed F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).

Currently Australia is planning to buy up to 100 JSFs.

Also on the list would be top level intelligence and surveillance capabilities, an ability to conduct cyber-attack and cyber-defence and a moderately capable ability to defend against ballistic missile attack.

Professor Babbage said a future ADF might possess only two or three of these capabilities.

"Such an approach would not necessarily require a dramatically expanded defence budget," he said.

"It would however need a markedly different pattern of defence resource allocation in order to bring a new model into being."

AAP
 
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Aussie Diggermark 2       3/24/2008 3:22:35 AM
WTF?

It IS still March is it not?

I thought April 1 was at LEAST a week away...
 
 
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AMTP10F       3/24/2008 3:25:56 AM
Such a force could feature a number of key capabilities such as a naval force of up to 30 submarines (currently Australia has six) and strong air defence and strike capabilities with up to 400 aircraft equivalent to the Lockheed F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).

Ross, put the bong down and back away slowly...
 
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bigfella       3/24/2008 6:30:33 AM

Such a force could feature a number of key
capabilities such as a naval force of up to 30 submarines (currently
Australia has six) and strong air defence and strike capabilities with
up to 400 aircraft equivalent to the Lockheed F-35 Joint Strike Fighter
(JSF).


Ross, put the bong down and back away slowly...

 
If only. I think this boy has been taking some VERY heavy doses of speed.
 
Now, I don't know much about these things, but even if we could buy the toys, who is going to play with them? I was under the impression we barely have enough bodies to run the show now.

 
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Aussiegunneragain    Pertinant quote   3/24/2008 7:32:26 AM
"Should Australia ever find itself in direct military conflict with either of the nuclear-capable, emerging superpowers China and India ... without American support, then the capabilities of the respective combat aircraft are likely to be academic."
 
From Dr Alan Stephens of the Strategic and Defence study centre, to the 2006 Parliamentary study titled "Australian Defence Force regional air superiority".
 
 

 
 
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Aussie Diggermark 2       3/24/2008 7:43:44 AM
Quote:

Now, I don't know much about these things, but even if we could buy the toys, who is going to play with them? I was under the impression we barely have enough bodies to run the show now. end quote.

Precisely. 30x Submarines in-service now would equate to 26x tied up at FBW.

400x F-35's? FMD!

We'd better start building RAAF bases and hardstands...


 
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BLUIE006       3/26/2008 7:44:41 AM
 This guy is a little excited... 
 
However, by 2050 ??? I'd like to see
 
10-15 SSK/SSG/SSN
20 USV 
 
25 -30 Major Surface combatants ( 8-10 AWD/DDX , 15+ ANZAC II, LCS )
3-5 LHD/LHA
 
B-3 ????
120 + JSF Block II
24-36 F/A-22X
40-80 UCAV (lo-mid-high)
12+ AEW+C /AWACS
 
Tri -Service Long range cruise missiles
 
ABM Defence land/sea 
 
100+ MBT
FCS
 
3000 + SAS/SBS
 
Of course required transport/refuelling aircraft and ships.
 
 
 
 
 
 
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historynut       3/26/2008 1:28:04 PM
England did not see the need to spend pre-WWII. Did cost them not being ready. Most well armed counties do not get attacked. Bad guys tend to attack people they think they can beat.
Look at all the wars well armed Switzerland has been in over the last hundred years. Not very many right. Check how many wars poorly armed counties in Europe have been in.
While Switzerland is well armed it's not because of the large amounts of money they spend, it's the fact they always spend about the same amount (based on the GNP).
In Australia you have spending then cut backs then spending then cut backs. Makes it harder to plan when the ship that was ok'ed this year is cut next year.
 Should point out that while Switzerland is too small to beat the larger counties around it Switzerland has not been attacked because not that it could not be beaten, it hasn't been attacked because the cost to beat them would have been too high.
 
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Aussiegunneragain       3/27/2008 8:02:27 AM

England did not see the need to spend pre-WWII. Did cost them not being ready. Most well armed counties do not get attacked. Bad guys tend to attack people they think they can beat.

Look at all the wars well armed Switzerland has been in over the last hundred years. Not very many right. Check how many wars poorly armed counties in Europe have been in.

While Switzerland is well armed it's not because of the large amounts of money they spend, it's the fact they always spend about the same amount (based on the GNP).

In Australia you have spending then cut backs then spending then cut backs. Makes it harder to plan when the ship that was ok'ed this year is cut next year.

 Should point out that while Switzerland is too small to beat the larger counties around it Switzerland has not been attacked because not that it could not be beaten, it hasn't been attacked because the cost to beat them would have been too high.



We spend 1.9% per annum and that has stayed roughly the same for nearly 20 years. Indeed, the former government committed to a 3% pa real increase in defence spending PA. The only reason that it didn't increase as a % of GDP is that our economy has grown faster than most. The last major defence cuts were in the late 80's, when our defence spending was dropped from around 2.5% of GDP to the current level over a couple of years. Save for an increase in spending as a % of GDP during the Vietnam war, it has been about the same since WW2. I don't agree with the 80's cuts, but it is simply inaccurate to say that there has been a trend of consistent cuts over a long period of time.
 
BTW, the Swiss spend about 1% of GDP Per Annum on Defence (see link). If as you say this has been consistent over the last hundred years (I'll take your claim with a grain of salt, given your other innaccuracies), then I doubt that you can attribute their 100 years of peace to their commitment to consistant defence spending . My guess would be that the things that have ensured peace are;
 
1. They hold the secret bank accounts of all the dictators that might have invaded them. Don't piss off your banker or he might "lose" your fortune.
2. There are bugger all natural resources in Switzerland and its easier to just buy their watches and toblerone, so it isn't worth invading for economic reasons.
3. The terrain makes it easier to go around than through.
4. Not having to run a Navy has meant that their Army and Air Force can be better equipped than would otherwise have been the case, which means that even with low defence spending they can afford a big punch.
 
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historynut       3/27/2008 11:08:35 AM




England did not see the need to spend pre-WWII. Did cost them not being ready. Most well armed counties do not get attacked. Bad guys tend to attack people they think they can beat.



Look at all the wars well armed Switzerland has been in over the last hundred years. Not very many right. Check how many wars poorly armed counties in Europe have been in.



While Switzerland is well armed it's not because of the large amounts of money they spend, it's the fact they always spend about the same amount (based on the GNP).



In Australia you have spending then cut backs then spending then cut backs. Makes it harder to plan when the ship that was ok'ed this year is cut next year.



 Should point out that while Switzerland is too small to beat the larger counties around it Switzerland has not been attacked because not that it could not be beaten, it hasn't been attacked because the cost to beat them would have been too high.





We spend 1.9% per annum and that has stayed roughly the same for nearly 20 years. Indeed, the former government committed to a 3% pa real increase in defence spending PA. The only reason that it didn't increase as a % of GDP is that our economy has grown faster than most. The last major defence cuts were in the late 80's, when our defence spending was dropped from around 2.5% of GDP to the current level over a couple of years. Save for an increase in spending as a % of GDP during the Vietnam war, it has been about the same since WW2. I don't agree with the 80's cuts, but it is simply inaccurate to say that there has been a trend of consistent cuts over a long period of time.

 

BTW, the Swiss spend about 1% of GDP Per Annum on Defence (see link). If as you say this has been consistent over the last hundred years (I'll take your claim with a grain of salt, given your other innaccuracies), then I doubt that you can attribute their 100 years of peace to their commitment to consistant defence spending . My guess would be that the things that have ensured peace are;

 

1. They hold the secret bank accounts of all the dictators that might have invaded them. Don't piss off your banker or he might "lose" your fortune.

2. There are bugger all natural resources in Switzerland and its easier to just buy their watches and toblerone, so it isn't worth invading for economic reasons.

3. The terrain makes it easier to go around than through.

4. Not having to run a Navy has meant that their Army and Air Force can be better equipped than would otherwise have been the case, which means that even with low defence spending they can afford a big punch.



1. When Germany invaded other counties one of the first things they did was take over the banks. Borrowed a lot of money that way. They also borrowed a lot of art too.
2. No natural resources but a lot of industry. In the other counties they took over one of the first thing they did was restart the arms industries. The Germans used a lot of France, Polish etc tanks, guns and ammo in WWII.3. The terrain and the fact that everyone is in the army. Even today the bridges, roads etc are designed to make blowing them easy.
4. How you spend makes a difference too. I worked at an aircraft company that sold fighters to the US air force and  to Switzerland. Same plane, equiped the same way but Switzerland got there's for a lot less money.
Why?
The US air force would go to congress each year ask for money and then buy the planes. Switzerland had a better plan, build the same number of planes a year but comment to buying a large number of planes. So each year the aircraft company would get it's order for 10 planes from the air force and then go out and buy what it need to build those planes. But it also had the order from Switzerland. You know if you buy a 100 seats it's costs less then buying 10 seats. You know if you buy a 100 radar sets it's costs less then buying 10 radar sets. Etc.
Problem is goverments seldom go for long term buying even if it saves them a lot of money. The people in power need to show they have the power. The fact that it ends up costing the taxpayer more money is just too bad.
 
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stingray1003       3/31/2008 1:03:04 AM
Australia is doing ok.
 
 If Australia gets 2 x lhd (+ 1 LHD or some more sealift ships), 3 x AWD (+1 please), 100 f-35a (100 aircraft SH/F-35 mix)  and all the other upgrades (tanks, refuelers, wedgetail etc) then Australia will be world leading in its defence assets. A lot of new and impressive toys.
 
 
 
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