Is North Korea preparing to launch a bioterrorist attack?

There is a significant possibility that North Korea is preparing to start a bioterrorist pandemic.  The reason is the historical parallel with imperial Japan combined with a method of attack that doesn?t leave a return address and won?t significantly affect the Hermit Kingdom.

North Korean official culture was established by intellectuals in the 1940s who were familiar with imperial Japanese propaganda. It paints the Koreans as a morally superior or "imperial" race uniquely virtuous because of a pure and ancient bloodline.  This fascist-inspired nationalism remains apparent today from the cult of the two Kims to a foreign policy glorified in domestic propaganda as "attack diplomacy."

Before the start of World War II an American oil embargo forced imperial Japan to decide between negotiating or going to war. In an attempt to resolve the situation, Japan asked US President Franklin Roosevelt for a summit meeting to discuss the issues. Roosevelt replied that Japan needed to leave China before such a meeting could be held.  Facing unacceptable preconditions to peace talks, the Japanese Emperor gave the green light for the surprise Pearl Harbor attack.

Today, the North Korean economy is in a tailspin triggered by United Nations-imposed sanctions. North Korea described the sanctions as "yet another vile product of the US-led offensive of international pressure aimed at undermining ... disarming DPRK and suffocating its economy".  The regime has said it would be "impossible" to abandon its nuclear ambitions and "an attempted blockade of any kind by the US and its followers will be regarded as an act of war and met with a decisive military response."

The recent seizure of a transport plane carrying North Korean-made weapons for sale is a significant loss the financially struggling regime can ill afford.  The plane seized in Thailand demonstrates the North Korea's illegal arms trade has been embargoed. Arms sales are the biggest part of North Korean exports.

The US has rejected North Korea's recent proposal to start peace talks to formally end the Korean War saying that can happen only after the North rejoins disarmament talks and reports progress in denuclearisation.

While imperial Japan?s Pearl Harbor sneak attack left no doubt as to their responsibility, in today?s world a devastating attack can be launched without fingerprints using a highly contagious extremely lethal virus.  According to the South Korean government, North Korea?s armed forces are capable of carrying out more than 13 kinds of viral and bacterial attack.  Among its biological agents is smallpox.

An attack with a contagious bioweapon pathogen would lead to massive civilian casualties, breakdown in essential institutions, violation of democratic processes, civil disorder, loss of confidence in government, and containing the spread of the disease would present significant ethical, political, cultural, operational, and legal challenges.  Assigning specific responsibility for such an attack would probably be impossible, especially in the ensuing chaos (with Muslim fundamentalists likely our prime suspect).

Meanwhile, the North Korean economy would only be slightly affected, and it is even possible that the Hermit Kingdom wouldn?t be infected as the disease spread world-wide.  Furthermore U.S. strategic flexibility abroad would be greatly reduced, resulting in a predictably loosening of the North Korean embargo, and perhaps even a great increase in North Korean arms sales.

The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor stands out as one of the most successful surprise attacks in the history of warfare.  What most people don?t know is that it was thought up by an American think tank as a worst case scenario of imperial Japan striking the United States.  In 2001 a senior-level war game called Dark Winter was conducted, portraying a covert smallpox attack on the American homeland. The simulation spun out of control - by not being able to keep pace with the disease's rate of spread, a catastrophe emerged in which massive civilian casualties overwhelm emergency response capabilities.

To summarize, the historical parallel of imperial Japan and present day North Korea are chilling.  A nation with a fascist/nationalist/racist culture, under embargo, whose offer of negotiations is met with unacceptable preconditions, is presented with the appealing idea of a worse case scenario military strike by the very enemy that has backed it into a corner.  Now do you see why there is a significant possibility that North Korea is preparing to start a bioterrorist pandemic?