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Subject: Obama will be a one term president.
SYSOP    11/11/2008 7:39:57 PM
Obama will be a one term president. Enter a more detailed explanation of the event. Give your thoughts of why or why not you think the even will happen. Let people know why you think this is important. This will posted to the message boards automatically.
 
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HERALD1357    We may have to accept two to four years more damage to fix the mess we are in.   2/26/2009 4:28:07 PM
Since BHO is one of the major ones, who actually caused the problem, we need to start thinking of yet ANOTHER solution.
 
Herald
 
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ker       2/27/2009 12:25:47 AM
 
World 2/26  page 18 and 19 repeated "Quotables".  I remixed the pages omitting much and mashing up the order.
 
"There is still a 30 precent chance we will get it wrong." VP Biden
 
"Vice President who?"  Obama
Press giggle
"You know, I don't remember exactly what Joe was referring to, not surprisingly."  Obama
 
"One day a peacock. The next day a feather duster." Gov. Quinn, Illinois.
 
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ker    Shared Sacrifice   2/28/2009 5:13:49 PM
"policy is to not remark on security issues." = "government denies knowledge"
 
In Obamas message OIF is ending like the cold war, nobody won, nobody lost, nothing changed, it was all a misunderstanding and wiser minds just quit making every thing better.  All our "war dreams" and injures were self inflicted.
 
Expect him to have is own misunderstanding, not just in Afghanistan.
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Obamas war of choice is the war on the American economies.  Using the vague term "depression" to grease the rails for the stim has run it's course. Now he tacks the other way and puts out the talking point discussed as economic analysis that the economies will grow soon because of the stim.  Not because of the underlining strength of the American system but because of the patch he just slapped on.  Independent economists are all underestimating the turn around because they don't know the "insider information" that Obama has because his people wrote the stim.
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CA may be regretting the bonds it f lotted to fund fetal stem cell industry.  The fetal stem cells get rejected like an organ transplant and grow puss fill bags of hair and teeth inside the tissue they are supposed to fix.  Send more money.  The bad part is that the state could really use the room on it's credit cards right now. 
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Income tax modifications will be sold as means to slow growth of  debt.  Thats like painting an aircraft carrier with you fingers.  Income tax is to adjust the power differential between the donor class and the elected class.  Who owns who.  Then we will get the BFG, big fat gouge, a new consumption tax.  (I have liked some consumtion tax replacing other tax burdens not just fishing for moeny.) It won't cover the debt either but will be large to the extent that they can pretend.  It might even fool China.  HRC is back in the Asia loop and telling stores.  The story we will get is that the BFG will fix health care and GM.  Health care and union work rules will continue to be complicated and expensive. Patronage health care is coming soon to a barbershop near you.  I also predict that if you take student loans and then gain employment in a "politically incorrect" field the government will claw back your loan.  That way they can shape us toward the public good.  They work for you night and day. Nationalized banks can get into politically motivated "red lining."  You want a loan for an AM or FM station??  No, your business model looks to risky in the present [political] climate.  But don't worry Barny Frank promises to give the banks back when he is done with them.  He even wants to take them to the wash.
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If you though exporting jobs was painful your gonna just love capital flight.
 
 
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ker       2/28/2009 5:19:12 PM

Since BHO is one of the major ones, who actually caused the problem, we need to start thinking of yet ANOTHER solution.

 

Herald



Your right.  The real turn around will look like Margaret Thatcher  http://www.margaretthatcher.or... comming to power in Briton. 
 
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ker    To Big To Fail?   3/2/2009 5:42:30 PM
GOP, "It's not a stim bill it's a spend bill."
 
Obama, "That's the point!"
 
For all the love Obama gets for being intellectual his explanation of Keynesian economics was W like in it's folksinesses.
 
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No economic idea survives contact with a politician. 
 
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John Kenneth Galbraith published The New Industrial State in 1966.  It argued that the big organization will beat the small organization because of the benefits of large scale and scope.  When records were kept by file clerks this was true.  Employee #500 contributes more than employee #5.  Employee #50,000 is the most productive employee of all.  Big organizations work better because of the technology used. 
 
It was a good desecration of historical trends.
 
Gordon Moore's little law first saw the light of day in 1965.  Moore's law kicked Galbraith's books ass.
 
One person with a spreed sheet can do the work of all the file clerks in the world in 1966.  The fact that really big companys have better training programs for their file clerks than smaller companys mattered.  Then it didn't.
 
Bigs advantage over small is so last century.  Or do I mean the century before that?
 
Galbraith thought that IBM and GM were too big to fail.  IBM trashed Palo Alto and failed.  GM is hiding it's failure by merging with a big insurance company called the United States.  The efficiency of big over small is over.  The political power of big over small hangs on.  Galbraiths idea that small can't work as fast or as cheaply as big was true until it wasn't.  People who don't know Galbraith pretend that "to big to fail" still means something economic.  It doesn't. 
 
Big might help corner a market by buying your competition but it mostly helps by increasing your positive attention from elected officials.
 
To big to fail is now a political not an economic condition.  It now means that the political powers will prop up a company no matter what the costs. 
 
Many of our institutions, schools and companys, still cling to an industrial organizational model.  The only advantage to the model is that it sinks well with our industrial model government.  Government may protect big industrial legacy institutions at the expense of smaller independent flexible shops.  It's easier to tell GM workers you saved GM than it is to tell small business start up employees you gave them their jobs.  Small business employees know the boss personally and see that the government isn't doing his work for him.
 
Small banks don't treat their congressional representatives as well as big ones.  Other wise the regulators would trust bust the banks down to a size where failures would be none events.
 
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Economics and politics blur together.  Dose this idea work because it's good or because the government thinks it's good? 
 
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Dose a economic idea like "stimulus" or "too big to fail" work because of the underlining economics or because of the overlaying psychology.  Will pre-Watergate scandal economic ideas work in the same way in the inter net envirment?  No. Macro-ecconomics have as much to do with mass hypnosis as math. 
 
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So the next "to big to fail" is the treasury of the United States of America.  Will we as a nation succeed because we do what it takes to take care of our selves or because the over seas lenders can't live with out us? 
 
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ker    Poll Degredation   3/4/2009 6:59:08 PM
Consider the distinction between graceful and non-graceful degradation of poll numbers and the mental states they attempt to model. 
 
Non-graceful degradation is a hit on the cooling system of a water cooled single engine aircraft.  Engine cooks it's self to death and plane is in trouble.
 
Graceful degradation is a hit on the cooling fins or cowling of an air cooled engine.  More so in a four engine bird.  The engine needs repairs but may fly home with out much lose of performance.
 
Both planes were degraded.  In one case the damage was limited and in the other it started a positive feed back loop where one failure (coolant leak) lead to another (over heating) which lead to a third (crash landing).
 
How will Obama function as he takes hits.  People like him (independents included) but are shaky about the plans and actions (independents and some Dems are complaining).  Call that FLACK. 
 
As the first term moves forward different kinds of FLACK will be encountered.  The effects may very well be additive.  That office beats people up.  Obamas moves telegraph that he wants to stay young and pretty.  Hair die and exercise help.  Date nights and boys sporting nights help both the man and the image.  "Don't let them see you sweat" is the clear intention. 
 
What kinds of FLACK can Obama take and what kinds will he need to avoid?  How well will be be able to avoid FLACK by blaming the messengers.  The Dems seam to want to keep Rush in thee news.  The message being that America has only one moderate political party.  There for if Obama fails the country spins into the ground.  Wrapping him self in a crises to suppress FLACK.
 
History tells me that for some leaders that is a time limeted solution.  lets see how gracefull it is for Obama.
 
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ker    The easy button   3/9/2009 7:48:57 PM
Would some one tell the Sec. State to take a Russian speaker with her when she visits Russia.  Maybe one who can spell.  Playing sloppy school girl to the Russian foreign minister - I don't think so.  My read on the Russians is that their not much into prop comics. 
 
Good thing the GOP never misspells or mispronounces anything. 
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I think some people over estimate the importance of a growing economy in securing the election of a Dem president incumbent.  That factor can be over come if the number of people working on government payrolls or union/party lists can be grown large enough.  The power of patronage goes up not down in times of economic pain.
 
Killing the stock markets helps Dems make a anti-republican punch line out of "Ownership Society".  People can be taught that the reason they have a job is not the "real economies" but the party.  Fear rather than love.
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VP dance party.  Failing to invite the press or fabricate a strait story about who didn't invite the press was a good way to get a lot of press.  Making the press part of the story gets you more press.  The message was that the unions call the tunes and the administration intends to dance up a storm.  Proof that their are not tears for the stock market in the white house.  I wonder if they want to raise cap gains tax and complicate dividend payments.
 
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ker    Descent is patriotic.   3/10/2009 8:45:21 PM

Descent is still patriotic.

 

http://www.newsweek.com/id/188565?GT1=43002   Howard Fineman

 

?A Turning Tide?

?Obama still has the approval of the people, but the establishment is beginning to mumble that the president may not have what it takes.
[snip]
?Swimming in the middle, he's denounced as a socialist by conservatives, criticized as a polite accommodationist by government-is-the-answer liberals, and increasingly, dismissed as being in over his head by technocrats.
[snip]
?? in ways both large and small, what's left of the American establishment is taking his measure and, with surprising swiftness, they are finding him lacking.

[snip]

 ?He'd have made a fine judge. But we don't need a judge. We need a blunt-spoken coach.

?Obama may be mistaking motion for progress, calling signals for a game plan. A busy, industrious overachiever, he likes to check off boxes on a long to-do list.?

[Fineman lists complaints by big beltway, media and economic players.]

  • The $787 billion stimulus, gargantuan as it was, was in fact too small and not aimed clearly enough at only immediate job-creation.
  • The $275 billion home-mortgage-refinancing plan, assembled by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, is too complex and indirect.
  • The president gave up the moral high ground on spending not so much with the "stim" but with the $400 billion supplemental spending bill, larded as it was with 9,000 earmarks.
  • The administration is throwing good money after bad in at least two cases—the sinkhole that is Citigroup (there are many healthy banks) and General Motors (they deserve what they get).
  • The failure to call for genuine sacrifice on the part of all Americans, despite the rhetorical claim that everyone would have to "give up" something.
  • A willingness to give too much leeway to Congress to handle crucial details, from the stim to the vague promise to "reform" medical care without stating what costs could be cut.
  • A 2010 budget that tries to do far too much, with way too rosy predictions on future revenues and growth of the economy. This led those who fear we are about to go over Niagara Falls to deride Obama as a paddler who'd rather redesign the canoe.
  • A treasury secretary who has been ridiculed on "Saturday Night Live" and compared to Doogie Howser, Barney Fife and Macaulay Culkin in "Home Alone"—and those are the nice ones.
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ker       3/11/2009 8:36:04 PM
 
I have a place for the bust of Churchill that Obama failed to quietly sweep out to sea.  It would sit nicely with the London church that was bombed and burnt by the blitz and then rebuild stone by stone in middle America.  They also have a section of the Berlin wall.  Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri is where the Prime Minister gave  Sinews of Peace  Speech.    . http://www.historyguide.org/eu...  text of speech
  
Westminster College would display the bust prominently, continually and in proper context.
 
Thats all I have to say about that.
 
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ker    3rd Event. Disorderly Unwind   3/11/2009 11:15:59 PM
I have described two potential events that could cost Obama.
 
1. Katrina II
      An industrial accident precipitates bad behavior by citizens, police, media and middle bureaucrats.  Obama lands Air Force One near the event.  It doesn't help. 
2. StimuliousGate
      In time it is determined that the stimulus package contains not only waist, fraud and abuse but industrial scale Corruption.
 
I would like to introduce a third.
 
Disorderly Unwind
 
The lay of the world economies is that America buys and China, Japan and Germany sell.  Mostly China and her wayward children.  We must give something in exchange for the products and because they don't buy equal value in our exports we give then paper, IOU's with interest (T Bills).  All these countrys are funtioning on their own domestic agendas.  American ecconomics are patterned on consumtion and income/payroll tax.  American consumer spending out strips the total GDP of any other nation.  Other nations patern their ecconomies on export prodution and consumtion taxes.  Feed the American egale and take it's pop to the bank.   You can only have one side of the equation if you have the other.  They can't sell unless we buy and we can't buy unless they lend.  Then they lend us more to pay the interest back to them. 
 
In that long term context other things happen.  They always do.  The very big American ecconomie (that pays the taxes that secure T bills) was inflated with consummer debt.  Then like a cold fish slap it wasn't funny any more.  People desided to spend and lend less. Comercial banking respndes to consummer fear buy reducing outstanding loans. Employers who were borrowing payrole lose credit lines and confedence so they lay off workers.  Worry about layoffs spooks consumers. Positive feed back loop. We found a new balance but the ecconomie got smaller.  The American one got a little smaller and the South Korean one got decimated, twice.  U.S. gets a sniffle and the world gets double namonia. 
 
America states that human rights will no longer be the basis of Sino-American relationship. 
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Obama, "If one more reporter askes me about socialism I will bail out that reporters empoyer and reassighn that reporter to Alaska or Siberia which ever one proves I'm not a socialist." 
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When the ecconomie shrinks even a little bit it has consequences.  Everybodys psycology gets jinxed.  The tax revenues decline.  Intitalment spending goes up.  Doing more with less is not a public sector skill.  Frankly when you threaton to cut out lays to a goverment agency they tend to redirect the moeny they have away from their overt mission toward the covert mission of lobbing goverment for more resources.  This is both eligal and common.  So goverment need to borrow moeny to cover the short fall.  Three not so small problems. We were already borrowing money to cover normal spending.  We have significan existing debt.  We promised the boomers they could retire with out thinking it through.  (Remember that when the boomers came to kindergarden there wern't desks for them all? No?  Social securety and medicare don't rememdr eather.)  So what we half to do is spend even more money to "stim" the ecconomie and move lots of workers off the dole and back to paying payroll tax.  (Giving you unimploment is to expencive so I'm going to pay you full time wages and benifits instead. This is how goverment saves moeny.)
 
The "stim" has other problems.  China and America intend to each spend 2% of GDP for two years to replace consummer demand with goverment demand.  Some say that amount is too small. (Too much  is never enough.) It looks even smaller if it's intended to stim the whole world.  Obama wants the G20 to agree to spend out with him.  They find his desire not to their liking.  Contenetal Europe has been looking for a chance get Anglo-Saxon capitalim down on it's back for a long time now.  We have made them look bad sence WWII and they ain't about to help us keep it up.  Obama wants to drive capitalism forward with goverment spending. Contenental Europe wants to tame capitalism with regulation of a social democrate nature.  Thick headed Americans call that socilism.  If you think asking the UAW to take pay cuts to save GM is hard, try asking the French to borow and spend moeny to cover over the fa
 
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