Obama will be a one term president.

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ker 2/9/2009 10:50:42 AM

My father told me, when I was still living under his roof, that his father got a hell of a lot smarter whe my dad move out on his own. It's easy to think the guy running the house is an idiot when you don't need to do it for your self.

Obama is learning that W was much smarter than he apeared.

Like the reason that the partys fight is not because W didn't have drinks over the superbowl.

Like maybe it's much smarter to have the ya'll come slugfest in a country with a port rather than in Afganistan. Much more than comando ops in Afganistan and the Russians start gameing your supply routes. But Obama is to young to remember how we gave the Soviets a hot foot their so he's not so sencetive to what they might look to do to us. They have a shadow presence in all future negotiations because Obama tip his hand and promised to do what W did not.

Like sending badmiton teams to Iran is not getting at the real issue.

Live and learn baby.

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ker 2/9/2009 7:08:52 PM

Send the bad mitten team to India. This is a case of team Obama thinking that what the media covers is whats really important. There fore they were willing to insult India to win favor with Pak and maybe a Peace Prize could be wrong out of Cashmere. This is Carter administration level of stupid. India is the country we should be treating as a friend and equal. Pak should be paid for performance only. Iran needs to fear us before they can be allowed to love us. First you must impress on them that war w/ us or even farting around like they might like a war someday is a very bad idea. Some of us questioned if Obama understood that during the campaign. Then you create a believable way for the enemy to profit from more peaceful relations. China opened to America to play the Russians and Americans off each other. That way they avoided being captive to the Russians and their terror nukes. In that context ping-pong diplomacy was a lovely way to help the people on the street get up to speed with their leaders. Iran still thinks it can profit it's self by playing spoiler to the U.S. At least they have sufficient uncertainty about American will to wait until Team Obama get over it's sea trials. Only after the fist hurdle is passed can we talk Iran into a relationship that gets them some consolation prize for not being American killers any more. Then and only then do you sent the bad mitten minton team. I like the Bad mitten team.

Maybe they play badminton in Libya?

Maybe India will get over being demoted from strategic partner to dunce cap statute? If you can spank Isreal for political reasons try India. They both start with the letter I. India caused it's own problems by not talking to it's enemy like Obama dose. They need use to manage their affairs for them.

As others have said, "I thought Obama ran on a rather different agenda."

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ker OPS! 2/11/2009 9:32:04 PM

After putting consequence amounts of money into bank stocks to protect them from insolvency the government announced a desire for a public private partnership to invest more money into markets. The private sector saw the none-plan and pulled large amounts of money out of the relevant stocks in a sell off.

Dems hit W fairly hard about his "extortion note" of a none-plan for the first trunk of TARP money. Now, team Obama, drop a new plan. Step one is do more of what W did but let congress intervene more. Step two is keep thinking for a wile and get back to us with better ideas.

Private sector money wants back in at the right time. They know that big fortunes are made at times like these. What are they waiting for? Largely they are waiting for government to work out all it's spastic convolutions. Government is so big and unpredictable and hostel to "profiteers" that it could wreck any investment with the stroke of a executive branch pen. So private money tends to wait government can go to weeks with out changing directions.

The best government act is to write a public plan that clearly describes what the government will do. The difference between a so-so plan and a perfect plan is smaller than the difference between a stable plan yesterday and a hope for a plan tomorrow.

Smart people prefer to make their bets after they have learned the rules of the game. The government wants to make the rules up as it goes along. Fiddle music by fire light.

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ker Too Much is Never Enough 2/12/2009 9:45:16 PM

Dear White Star Line,

I was quite displeased with my trans-atlantic accomodations.

Sternly worded letter to follow.

Thank you Captain for rowing the life boat but I must ask what you did with the woman who belongs in the coat your wearing.

Imagine the seen. As your, women and children first, life boat moves slowly away from the sounds of survivors in the cold Atlantic, you notice the captains shoes under the woman?s coat he used to sneak into the first boat.

As the TARP and Stimulus projects lumber forward in profound complexity one wonders what they will look like in hind site after the urgency subsides.

http://www.washingtonwatch.com/blog/2009/01/18/stimulus-bill-text/ You read it and give me a summary.

What self serving laws got slipped in all the excitement?

Remember Freddy and Fanny looked good until they didn?t. Subprime used to mean progress not boondoggle. If it looks this bad now how can we predict it?s after taste. Remember the rush to get debit cards to Katrina victims. ?That looked good in the cold dawn light of a strip club parking lot,? he said sarcasticly.

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Things could be done with a lot less adminstrative cost and complexity. But every member wants to get their 2 cents in.

Credit If banks won?t lean let other people do it like credit unions. Rather than give banks money for nothing tell them government will match 1 for 1 interest received on loans they make in the next six weeks. They would find money and people to borrow it.

Housing Wave cap gains tax on homes bought in next six weeks.

Jobs Wave two years of the employers side of payroll tax on new hires in the next six weeks provided that the total number of employees for that employer is higher than it has been in the last year.

Consumer Spending Wave employee side of payroll tax up to the median individual income for 25 weeks.

That all might cost a trillion dollars.

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Timely Couldn?t

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ker 2/13/2009 8:25:24 PM

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/jan-june09/israelelection_02-11.html The Online NewsHour 2/12/09

News Hour had a good discussion. Check out the whole thing at the link.

?Dismal prospects for special envoy?

??.
?MARGARET WARNER: Do you think the outcome of who gets to govern makes a difference for the Obama agenda, which is -- I mean, he just appointed this very high-profile special envoy, George Mitchell, to go over there and try to not only kick-start the peace process in the Middle East, but see that as a lynchpin of a whole new approach to that part of the world.

AARON MILLER: I think it's going to be really tough, because in addition to a Palestinian broken house, a divided Palestinian national movement, the absence of one gun, one authority, one negotiating position, you now have...

MARGARET WARNER: You mean, you've got both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.

AARON MILLER: Exactly. You now have to add to that, although the crisis isn't the same order of magnitude, an Israeli divided or broken house. And broken houses in the Middle East don't lead to bold and historic decisions.

When peace has come, very rarely, it's because bold Israeli prime ministers -- Menachem Begin, for example, Yitzhak Rabin -- and bold Arabs -- Anwar Sadat, King Hussein, even Yasser Arafat in his first incarnation -- had the power to make these decisions.

We're out of the age, frankly, of heroic politics when it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict. And that is going to present the Obama administration with a huge challenge. George Mitchell is an extraordinary negotiator, talented man. I have profound respect for him. But the Obama administration is all dressed up, but there's nowhere right now for them to go.And the more George Mitchell goes there without producing something, the more he becomes part of the political furniture. That's what happened in the Clinton administration, and that's something that an American president must prevent happening again, not being taken seriously by tiny powers who are all too interested in promoting their own political agendas at the expense of ours.??..?

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ker 2/17/2009 3:16:58 PM

Obama over promised on the change, transparency, competance and some other things. The roll out of the administration continues. Lets not go dead horse all over again.

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I sence that team Obama wories about the effect the job has on the man. WH, Clinton,W all seen throught the eyes of Obama got bad cabin fevor and shot up their own cabin pretty bad. Isolation and what not.

Team Obama, in my veiw, has set a priority on keeping Obama's head the way it was before he got the job. Obama's mission is to change the job rather than let the job change him.

The Black Berry stays. Remember Clilnton loalist rumors that the guy who carried the football was a spy set by the Pentagon to learn what Clinton secrets liked telling China? Maybe, I was in a weird rumor net back then but I do remember clinton sliping his Secret Service detail or leaving the football to take a cab. Obama dosn't want people making list of who he sees and communicates with. He will be the watcher and not the watched.

The Obama management style seams to be to hire the whole short list and make the job titals up as needed. The old line is the conflict between the staff and the cabinet. The Obama line is the mirror cabinet inside the staff and the core staff inside of that. With all those people placed in jobs people can be put on make work or dismist with out being replaced. Saves on those trips to capital hill for conformation. It also thins out the air around the man. He will not be the hostage of his public advisers. "I brought you in to this world and I can take you out (with out the pain of replacing you.)"

A particular threat to the mans brain is the Director of the Centrail Intelegence Agency. Well not any more. Leon E. Panetta, the former White House chief of staff, is Obamas man at the agency not the agencys man with Obama. No hair will set fire with out premision from Obama. Who watches the watchers? Well CIA gets the second pick for White House chief of staff. They should feel apriceated.

Let Obama be Obama.

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Necromancer Jeb Bush 2012 is possible 2/19/2009 3:55:54 AM

A genuine conservative with genuine skills and credibilty, Obamas big government plan may fail and Jeb may walk in on the economy not improving. Obama made a mistake by not pursuing Bush Jr with inquiries into Iraq etc. Washingtons a tough place, Obama was too soft on the wrongs commited by the Repubs last 8years. His soft approach lets Repubs of the hook and Jeb Bush relatively untainted and not controversial. Investigations into Florida vote count, Iraq etc would have defamed Obamas potential adversaries in 2012.

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ker 2/22/2009 7:35:29 PM

"Did you hear the news? My sons running for presedent. The bad news is it's Gorge." Barbara Bush

Rice at Department of Education, Rummy at energy, Baker at State and Powel at DoD and Jeb in the oval- oh what could have been. Jeb might have been able to manover more succefully to adapt to the PotP (party of the people) threat.

I still have a higher opinion of W than well everybody. If you study martial arts you half to face the fact that the other guy may have studdied your moves to. If that happens the "better" you preform what they taught you in class the worce you get hurt. You need to learn the move and learn how to change it on the fly if anything feel funny. If the other guy knows your move and trains to counter it (can predict what your doing) your dog meat. You can lear the counter-counter, that is start move A and when the enemys reates surprise him with move B. If you can't spend that much time training you need to make stuff up in action. A bad move no one has seen beats a good move the enemy plans on you making.

OIF was the "bad" move that worked. AQ didn't see comming.

I've said that if you make me breath though a straw I'm OK. If you make me run a mile I'm OK, it;s a work out that makes me stronger. If you make me run a mile wile breathing through a straw I have a problem. Invading Afganistan made AQ breath though a straw and before they could fix the breathing problem the Iraq invation made them run a mile. Oxegen deprevation made them dumb and they started fights is Saudi they didn't need. They lost.

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ker 2/24/2009 1:31:07 AM

Wow did I take the bait or what.

More to the point, Obama will not go after W legally. He might find some anti-war movement people to love bomb some wounded vets into filing a politically motivated court action but would maintain plausible. Obama is what W was. What W is Obama may well become. Obama know that.

Further more attacking W is a waste of ammunition/money/favorability. When you attack you lose favorability with the public. In a two man race that is an acceptable loss because if you do it well the other guy loses more so it's a net win.

W isn't worth one attack any longer. Obama needs his favorability and can waist it going negative on anyone lest of all W.

Jeb will in my opinion will not run. W sucked all the air out of that room. It's kinda to bad.

If Jeb is the threat the Dems will hold most of their fire untill he is the canidate. Then they will attack him and not his brother.

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ker 2/25/2009 5:52:03 PM

Incumbents tend to win. Obama has made skills and out flanks currant GOP on the youth angle. He can be expected to win re-election.

Four years is an eternity in American politics. The future is a sort of mine field that needs to be probed.

I have suggested two critical occurrences either of which could lower Obamas likelihood of re-election seriously.

1. Katrina II

An industrial accident precipitates a Jerry Springer fest in an American population center. The front line police who have been shorted on training and cohesion fail to preform. Call it a spontaneous walk out. The State government formations each major in covering their own assets and reputations. The Federal government dose not have the needed number of people to confidently fill the gap. Media spams the nation w/ catastrophed images and trembling voice overs making all of the above worse.

2. StimuliousGate

In time it is determined that the stimulus package contains not only waist, fraud and abuse but Corruption on the scale of the House Bank Scandal. Obama can not distance him self from the bill he told Pelosi to right and then championed through passage. His repeated remarks against ear marks and bad faith legislating make the blow back worse. Remember Daniel Rostenkowski's, Blogo and Obamas chief of staff all served in IL 5th congressional district. http://chicagoelections.pbwiki...

History can repeatit's self.

Lets think about other possible but avoidable events with about a 20% chance of happening that would politically damage Obama. This kind of planing is a clear part of team Obamas job so we should help out.

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