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Subject: Obama will be a one term president.
SYSOP    11/11/2008 7:39:57 PM
Obama will be a one term president. Enter a more detailed explanation of the event. Give your thoughts of why or why not you think the even will happen. Let people know why you think this is important. This will posted to the message boards automatically.
 
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ker    Damage   1/19/2010 3:15:31 PM
The Needle and the Damage Done   Young
I caught you knockin'
at my cellar door
I love you, baby,
can I have some more
Ooh, ooh, the damage done.

I hit the city and
I lost my band
I watched the needle
take another man
Gone, gone, the damage done.

I sing the song
because I love the man
I know that some
of you don't understand
Milk-blood
to keep from running out.

I've seen the needle
and the damage done
A little part of it in everyone
But every junkie's
like a settin' sun.
 
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ker    Love the junkie and hate the junk.   1/22/2010 5:30:14 PM
I'm using additive behavior, cemical and sexual and maybe gambling, as a type for selfserving goverment.
 
Love the junkie and hate the junk. 
-----------------
In MA the independents and some Hillairy Democrates voted for the "Teabagger".  Stupid police unions!
 
Rebranding a new O will be a challange.  Remember new coke?  Voter are harder to please than ever.  They reward playing against you own sterotype if it cost you something and it changes ground reality.  AF is helping O numbers. 
 
His no retreat and no surender pledge is music to GOP earns.  If O is smart that is a screen to cover the real plan.  He may be targeting his message toward demografics that are reachable and writing off others.  Or makinng a move so he dosn't look dead now and saving the real message for latter. 
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O said he was going to turn states purple.  If I knew he ment NJ and MA I might have voted for him.
---------------
When O is down he falls back and lextures us on why our ignoance is the cause of his problems.  The press has noticed the patern so he need to make it more complecated.  The leture will now sound more like a union rally.  Gona find some fight'n Iris in that Hawain soul.  It's cosmetic and incongreus.  We hear you so we will turn up the volume wile we keep doing the same things harder.  See how much we value your feelings.  The first impresion is made and ingrained.  Any change will require lots of substance and C-Span. 
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O spoke in Ohio to day.  Think that states in play..... 
 
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ker    Damage   1/23/2010 4:01:36 AM
NBC called.  They are firing O and giving the job to Leno.  CoCo get SecState w/ promise of the top job in three years.  O wanted a close relationship between party and corporation.
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O really wanted to peal corporations away from the GOP and get them to give only too Dems.  If Dems are stable large unified majority and Goverment picks corpote winners then it's a hard offer to refuse.  Now companys feel burnt.  Like House dems who voted for cap and tax bill to see the Senate Dems drop it like a hot potato, O new corporate partners dought his promises of protection.  Thats bad but it happens wile the Court decided that the Fist Amendment applys to political speach and that the people do not forfit that right when they assemble them selves into     corporations.  So this isn't the best time to be a FAIR weather friend. 
 
Now if you have the moeny to buy an ad campainn your anti democratic but if you have the moeny to buy MSNBC your ok.  Thats how O looks out for the little guy.  That and promising to stay under campain spending limets before he refused to stay under them before he denounced the Court for saying other people shouldn't be limeted. When has O's sence of fairness been different than his sence of whats good for him.  I promise to be transparent until it's inconveaint.  I promise to spend unlimeted sums of political moeny to protect you from other people's political moeny.   
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http://www.thedailyshow.com/wa...  7 mike Daily Show shot at Oberman.   Well counter shot for Obermans hits on Brown and Michelle http://michellemalkin.com/...  Malkin and others.    (Oberman replayed this bit on his show and said he was wrong.)
 
Oberman has been the kind to see dog wistle rasim and dog wistle sexism.  Blow the dog wistle and only the dogs can hear it.  So when bad men used code words they can activate other bad men to follow w/o getting arested.  Only rasist and the most educated libral scolds can hear dog wistle rasim.  Say, Browns rallys chant "gas up the truck."  This is not a celbration of his hard working style as a campainer or of people who do phisical labor in an independent way.  This isn't even an ilusion to "drill baby drill" as bad as that would be.  If you know the code words this a call for NAZI style moble gas chambers; trucks with the exhaust pipe feeding into a large locked rear passengers compartment.  I know that not many of you have taken as many sociology classes as I have so this is a very shocking revelation.  We can't all be sociology proffs so we need libral scolds to tell us who to fear.  Oberman is a master libral scold.  I was laughfing at him before it was cool.
 
Now on to violance against women w/ political ideas you opose.  "silly bitch......If you read that [she] was murdered, you will know that it was me, won't you."  Surly those words must have come from an SEIOU infiltrator intent on discrediting tax protestors and giving Oberman a better nail to hang his malice on.  Surly it was directed at the woman who would be the air to Ted Kennedy.  No.  The culprit is MP Alan Duncan who is fanced as posible British Home Secretairy. He spoke on BBC1's Have I got News For You. The "silly bitch" in question, Miss CA, Carrie Prejean.  Her political idea that Duncan oposed, "homophobic" agreement with the majority of Americans on the nature of marige.  In his non appology Duncan said it was a joke and "I have no plans to kill her. I'll send her a box of chocolotes-unpoisioned."  Oberman should get around to this story or arn't the dog wistles loud enough for him.
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The survival number.  If you are a Dem member of the house you must add the % of your district that is black to the % of them with graduate education and add that to the % of times you voted against O legeslative plans.  This number is predictive of you chances of re-elction.  Go buy a used GMC or F-150 with the W stickers still on the tailgate.  Votes are going to cost O/Pelosi more now. 
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All you need to do is look at the pic.&nbs
 
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ker    Have I Got New For You   1/23/2010 4:51:27 AM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...  BBC1 Have I Got News For You clip refered to in previous post.  1:29
 
 
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ker    Oval to Warm   1/25/2010 2:37:55 PM
 
"Despite President Obama's long history of criticizing the Bush administration for "sweetheart deals" with favored contractors, the Obama administration this month awarded a $25 million federal contract for work in Afghanistan to a company owned by a Democratic campaign contributor without entertaining competitive bids, Fox News has learned."
 
and
 
"It is ironic that at the same time we are scolding the Afghan government about corruption we engage in a no bid contract to teach them the rule of law."
 
The Chicago way is an improvement over Kabul.  Chicogo gangs don't use IEDs.  Seriously folks O had a bigger problem than refilling the pockets of a known donnor.  Loalty isn't as easy to find as one would hope.  What if a "rule of law" contractor got a better offer from an oil company from TX or Russia?  What if the lowest bid came from a Republican?  This is a very sencitive matter.  O need to hold close some facts and opinions. Select your future disgruntaled employes carefuly.  You clearly want to have more black mail on them than they will get on you in the cource of doing what you need done.  Dems felayed W for sending people to Bagdad who had to get pasports first.  Team W needed to send people who were not infiltrators/salts eger to embarase a Republican.  Now team O is looking at political loyalty v. best practice.  The loyal to oposition ratio can keep a man up at night. 
 
See I have some restraint.  I didn't call it a strait up kick back.  The Cross of Iron speach applys to buying accedemics justs as much as it applys to buying iron.  Oval warming predicted.
 
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ker    Small Change   1/25/2010 2:48:07 PM
http://smallwarsjournal.com/bl...  Small Wars Journal com    On the "Post-COIN Era."
 
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ker    Change Receptivety   1/25/2010 4:25:32 PM
A leader who wishes to instute change is very well advised to foster a climet that is receptive to change in their first weeks in office. O used his campaine, transition and first weeks in office to masterfully create such an envirment in America.  If anything he over did it and had to talk people down towards more reasonable expectations of what would be delivered.
 
O will never have that moment again.  America will not get there again for some time.
 
When your heart gets broken the more you belived before the more you hurt after.  O ideological oponets are entrenched and gaining confidence.  O's ideological loyalists are saying in private to his framed picture on their wall, "who are you and what have you done with the winner I could belive in."  They still pray for him and work for him and tell pollsters he is great but the infacuation has fadded.  "There Can be Only One" has given way to "Can't find a Better Man." 
 
So the poll numbers don't tell the true depths of the loss.
 
His carefully cultivated aura, public persona, needs some redefining.  His second first impresion, his hard pivot, his state of the presidency, his re-brand must explain what we misunderstood for the 2 pluse years we have been learning this man.  He must offer up somthing we accept in light of our clear memorys and the catolog of public statements on video.  The GOP will be putting canidate O in their ads. O already in his second presidency must anticipate those ads.  Change belivably the new state of the union O must.
 
One top option is the, "For the sake of the country I tried to play nice and now I know better."  It don't lead to any real success but it keeps him from looking like too much of a lame duck.  The under tone is that he failed because GOP stabed him in the back.  Like we have never heard that one before.  The presure to paint the first and most important year as a success will be strong and foolish. 
 
49 house dems sit in districts won by Mc.  How many sit in districts Mc could win in a remacth to day?  That is the real number to worry about if your wagon is hitched to the party of the people.  Lets just say that it is larger.
 
Some dems can survive not by out running the bear but by out running the slower dems.  Webb can say that he is no Dodd.  Before the end he might.  Cap and tax hangs on the house and National Health hangs on the Senate.  That don't wash off.  Two clear job killing bill in the deep and long unemploment.  The battle before the battle is blaiming it on W or Dodd Franks and Rangel.  All of the above is a posible answer and that kills dems.
 
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ker    Born Again Hard Pivot   1/26/2010 1:36:53 PM
O's situation to ethics ratio is contingent on the cituational.
 
How long before the press ask O how much a gallon of milk cost?  41 got gigged on that one.
 
O "The difference between 10 and 94 is you got me." 
 
Coherent strategy-planning through to end state- not O style. O could triangulate like Clinton/Morise but it would require him giving an instrution to congress and them following it.  It would include co-opting the most atractive messages of the GOP.  Clinton came from AR by way of the DLC so it was easyer to sell.  O came from Harvard by way of the activist left.  O makes the move and he looks more unpredictable.  Frayed Coalition?
 
Overreach, we don't see any stinking overreach.  O may have thought W was lame before he had a war.  O wanted the moral equvalance of war in his health care plan to get the same mogo W had w/ war.  National Health was also going to remake the political ecconomie to give Dems a tail wind.  This wasn't gratitude but behavioral ecconomics they were counting on. 
 
"I'd rather be a good one term P than a mediocre 2 term P" O.  W was much wiser when he said I rather lose an election than lose a war.  Maybe they arn't the same?  Still in mind of left O will be what W is. 
------------------------------
Bob Herbert   in NY Times
 
"O may be personaly very appealilng, but he has positioned himself all over the political map: the opponet of health insurance mandates who made a mandate to buy insurance the centerpeace of his plan; the presedent who stocked his admin. w/ Wall Street insiders and went to the mat for banks and big corporations who is now tring to present him self as a born again populist. Mr. Obama is in danger of being precived as some one whos retoric, however skillful can't always be trusted.  He is creating a cretibility gap for him self and if it widens much more he won't be able to close it."
 
Highlights mine.   Let me translate this.  O still thinks he can get away with it.  He plays a dubble game.  Yelling anti-corprote red meat out the windo wile inviting select CEO's of biggest corporations into room to cut up the political and ecconomic terain.  Obamanomics (Carney) rehearses the details in fine muckraker stlye. Obama wants to do to corporations what Boby Kennedy did to the mob: shut the dirty oporations that involved Republican.  It meant that Dems could charge higher fees to racketeers and starve GOP for moeny.  Wile doing that Obama is continuing to scold GOP for not being transparnt like he is on C-Span.  Obama feels about corporations the way I feel about lawyers: the only good one is the one in my pocket.  But Obama misrepresents his picking and chosing of which corporations to bless and curse as looking out for the little guy. To Bob Herbert it looks unorganized. To me it looks like almost skillful deception.
 
Press is saying that O is reaching for a populist tone.  They are not saying he is a populilst.   
 
We stoped projecting our hope on to O and started projecting our fear on to him when he went into a back room and sold us to insurance companys for their agreement to not lobby against him.  He didn't make the Hilariy care mistake.  He made a bigger one.  After Hillary Care Clinton could still say he was on the side of his own base. 
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O had a great ellection coalition but he misunderstood who they were. Then he governed in a way that put off the Ross Peros 19% and some others.  He dosn't have a governing coalition.  He neededd to decide between National Health as entitalment restraint which we desperatly need or looting the insurance compainys and troughing the cash out the balcony windo at the sick and the lame in the streets.  He never really decided and there was never really a bill or a plan to make a bill.  A really good sales man w/ a really bad product crashes really fast. O could have saved himself and the nation a huge number of person hours if he had tried to sell a bill in the first place rather than kicking can down the road for a year.  Sorry for such a long bill I didn't give my self enough time to write a short one.  
--------------
On jobs O is like a farmer who plows and plants.  Then the people cry that they are hunger and say he isn't doing anything so he plows and plants the same feild again hoping the hunger people will stop asking
 
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ker    About Last Night   1/28/2010 4:02:49 PM
Executive and legislative branches the scolding the facial expresions of the Judicial branch.  Wow.  O should be careful Judges might not show up next time.  That what they did to Clinton once.
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Big to bang ratio all big and no bang.  O swong for the fence because he though that what succesfull P's did.  The left bower wanted humble and now he's got it.
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Dayly Show was hammering Dems for impontancy last night.
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American counter-insurgenacy is based on French and English experience (also American) where they wanted to stay permantly and promised permanant protection.  Now we are linking the tactics of staying with the strategy of leaving.
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Last night was O last big first.  He is in the saddle now or he never will be.  

 
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ker    It's the spending stupid   2/7/2010 4:19:43 AM
http://www.economist.com/displ... Neither the president nor Congress shows any sign of knowing how to tackle the deficit.  From The Economist print edition
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O's pivot is 720 degrees.  He's spon around twice but he's still moving in the same direction.  The sales man was right the product just stunk.  The proposed solution seams to be more speaches and more passave agresive attacks on the GOP.  The oposition is opositional.  Duh.  Look at O's opositional defient record in the Senate.  Was he he doing anything other than scoring points on W? No.  Dose O ever pass up an oportunity to score political points on W now?  Dose he give a talk with out saying at least twice, "It's not my fault."  He makes careful none-apologes for not talking to the people more.  He says that he needed an out side game.  Lots of populare presidents have had inside games and O did have a big outside game.  The problem was that the outside game was a lie.  Well the real problem was that the out side game was a transparant lie and that the inside game was vote buying on unpresedented levels.  The health bill to nowhere.  All this wile he is promising to be the most transparent admin ever.  He mocked the GOP about how confident he was that if he put the negotations on C-Span the GOP would be seen to be owned by the insurance companys.  Then he went into secert meetings with the insurance companys and said, "Stop owning the GOP and please, please start owning me.  They are old and wrinkled whores.  I'm fresh and young."  Dems have been taking insurance industry moeny for as long as the GOP.  They wern't getting into a new line of work.  They were pushing the GOP competition off the block. 
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O is pretending that he is not a politition.  A the same time he is promising more continual campaining.  Political expedency requires that he play post political but after the nightly news has aired he can tell fundraisers that he is offing the GOP the olive branch of peace as a prelude to blaiming them for making him attack them yet again.  Slightly engaged independents need to see a open hand extended to the GOP wile more engaged Dem base need to see O kicking GOP under the negotating table.   
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We can not continue to spend the peoples moeny as if it were monopoly money.  The denominations in monopoly moeny are far too small.  We must spend faster than that.  Read my buget, no new restraint.  Words are cheap but goverment is expencive.
 
 
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