Hill will end with the nomination not because the rank and file voters but because of the structure of the party.

 

Super delegates will go for Hill.  No secret ballots for them and they are subject to pressure.  Most are elected to office them selves.  A few whispers from bill could change their next campaign either for office or party leadership. 

 

The delegates who are pledged to down list candidates, Richerson, Biden etc, will Gravitate towards Hill.

 

I LOL about Bill saying that all votes should be equal in the Nevada contest but not speaking against super delegates in the party nominating process. 

With the Kennedy endorsement of Obama my last post becomes some what questionable.   Kennedy had a close call getting elected wile Clinton was in.  Losing the senate and house to GOP hurt him too.  He may think it better for the party to have Obama at the top of the ticket if Hilary looks too much like a stand in for her husband. 

 

The femist mother sits down with her little girl and says "if you study hard and get married to the right man and put up with his vices you can be president." 

Obama has a chance to pull away in the polls enough to force the convention his way.  Hillary found her own voice.  She will get to use it speaking at the convention.  Maybe on the first night.  Bill overplayed his hand (not the first time) turned the wrong people against Hill.  Ted K. for one.  Then when the National chairman who could have been hills best friend had to tell them both to play fair with each other and had Ted and others watching over him it left Hill with out tool to use.  Hill and Obama will not go down together in a death spiral because the party stepped in and set rules.  Those rules help Obama.  He is the positive image guy not the slash and burn guy.  Tape of Hill saying Obama worked for a slum lord will come back and keep on giving.  Hill need an enemy and can't make Obama one. 

 

Also how stupid was it to compare Obama to King and her self to Jonson and say that Jonson did more for Blacks because he passed laws.  King only made speeches is not what you say if you want to win.  Jonson was so disliked by his own party he didn't even re-run and re-run is precisely what Hill is trying to do.  Tin flipping ear.

 

By the By, if Hill was co-president then her run is unconstitutional.  If she was first lady/white house counsel/ lead health care expert that is not a platform to run for the top job.  Good presidents were either governors of states or militarily governors of large areas like western Europe.  The other source is the Sennett and they are so so.  No White house counsel or cabinet member makes a serious run unless they are also a governor/sennettor.  Bottom line is that after being the "first black president" Bill wanted to be the first woman president too.

 

So if Obama can avoid saying stuff that reminds us that he is to the left of Casto and most of his campaigns have been walk overs he can win. 

Obama has in my opinion an 80% chance of securing the nomination.  The logic is now reversing and standing with Clinton is a drag on your future in the party.  John Lewis now has a challenger in his primary who is using the Atlanta congressman's support of Clinton as a "killer application" for the challenge.  By "killer application" I mean one simple reason that by it's self justifies ousting an incumbent.  Lewis has responded by endorsing Obama and pledging his super delegate vote to Obama.  Supporting Clinton makes people look out of touch. 

 

Clinton has said that Lewis was under pressure to change his vote.   I have heard snapper come backs. 

Old news.  I had said in the bast that Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential team had picked it's competitors well.  Obama made her look experienced and Edwards made her look sincere.  Now the angle is to paint Obama as taking unfair advantage of his blackness.  People in nepotism houses shouldn't throw reverse discrimination stones. 

 

Hillary likes throw things and telegraphed an intention to through every thing and the kitchen sink.  If Obama don't respond he looks timid and if he responses he looks looks like the same old pol Democrats want him to save us from.  Hillary already looks like a hack so has little to loose here.  A SNL skit (?planted?) was a very glancing way to say that the press ought to know that Obama has a political history with Chicago written all over it. 

 

The nomination contests starts to look like the ghosts of primaries past sleep walking by.  In Texas Hillary continued her tendency to refer positively to LBJ like it helps her.  The 3AM phone call ad was a variation on LBJ's 1968 Dasy add.  Her better consultants were grasping back for a Norman Rockwell / FDR image, the Freedom from Fear painting.  With in that context they still needed to  show a commanding Hillary on the phone.  Texas Democrat's needed to see her doing the parts of the presidency that are more than super senator (veto is filibuster writ large) and national inspiration.  This seamed to work.

 

Ker, you are a smart cookie lol.  Enjoy reading your analysis and conclusions.  Just for the record, I'm one of those New England Republicans who is currently supporting Obama.  Yet I truly cannot anticipate how this thing will conclude.  It's def a twister.

Why do the wives stand by in humiliating press conferences about the Governors out sized sex habits?

 

Because those kinds of men marry those kind of women, women who do what they are told.

 

The governor of NY, NJ or AR do not need to commit felonies to get sex.  The felonies are the compulsion.  I mean the risk they take and humiliation they inflict on large numbers of people are reward for the behavior. 

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Lets say that Rev. Jessy Jackson is on the inside what he is on the out side.  Lets say that Sec. State Powell is on the inside what he is on the out side.  What if you could raise up a leader who was Powell on the out side and Jackson on the inside?  What if your one standard deviation further out than Jackson in the same direction? 

 

As you can tell I speak of Rev. Jeremiah Wright.  Wright if I am correct was the man to bring Obama in Christianity.  Wright is to Obama what Billy Gram is to Bush.  Obama is no fortunate senators son.  Obama had to work with what was available.  Please remember that polls must work with lots of people to win.  Not every one who thinks they have Obamas ear doses.  Haven't you seen an apparent mentor be used and then discarded by the follower.  Some times they stable the mentor in the back and take their job. 

 

I will say that the United Church of Christ, where Wright and Obama belong is a very tolerant church.  They are so tolerant that, if your not as tolerant as they think you should be they will hurt you.  Verbally of course.  It may help us understand what Obama means about uniting the country and the world. 

 

Obama is making predictable none-apologizes and none-refutations of Wright.  What Obama is not doing is giving us Obamas opinions on the hot topics Wright has hit.  You have heard it said an eye for an eye but I tell you......    What dose Obama tell us?  Thats what I want to know.  He could start with a list of his thoughts about the best and worst things about America and her presence in the world. 

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 And the party is making it's nomination standards up as it goes along.  Denver here we come.

If your want it bad.......

 

   These comments are about Barrack "Proud to be an American" Obama and Hillary "No such thing as other peoples children" Clinton as they battle for the chance to face John "the Manchurian candidate" McCain.  On paper they need to gain a combination of super delegates and elected delegates from primaries and caucuses.  One of the functions of super delegates used to be that they could paper over a close primaries race and move the party forward with a stronger image in the public mind.  Not this year.  Democrat protest of Bush "stolen victories" encouraged sceptism and outrage over the outcomes of close elections.  Do I hear chickens coming home to ruest?  What might be inflating the winner margin one year can be precived as stealing the next and in politics perception is the game. 

 

Baring a systemic collapse by team Obama, Clinton can not win the elected delegate count.  If she can maintain her expected level of support from super delegates she still get the totals needed for the nomination.  This set of circumstances makes many super delegates uncomfortable.  To avoid that discomfort some may want to move to Obama.  For Hilary to limit that move meant sufficiently to hold the nomination she must provided super delegates with political cover that protects them if they stay with her.  She need to fuzz things up.  (If Charles Schumer feels a recession we are in a recession regardless of those complicated GDP numbers.  Let Bush hide behind historical context for economic growth and employment.  Schumer is feeling pain at the pump.)  If Hillary feels like what really matters is winning PA then little things like the written primary rules shouldn't get in the way.  She is inventing the opinion that super states should matter more than the rules indicate to counter the opinion that elected delegates should matter more than unelected super delegates.  The pattern of perceptions trumping rules is increased by the precived need to get a Florida delegation seated at the convention even thought the party rules forbid it this year. 

 

Rather than let primary votes focus on who has what kind of delegates Hillary need to cook up some buyers remorse in people who voted for Obama.  Then she can argue that those primaries she lost are old news and what matters is how thing seam now.  She also wants to apear to be electable wile Obama is not.  That is hard to do when state by state polling shhows Obamma wining more electoral colledge votes against McCain than she dose.  McCain is gaining streanth against Obama in polls as news about Obamas questionaable situational awairness surfaces.  For years Obama took moeny from a "slum lord" (Hillaries word) Resco and gave moeny to Afrocentric church and then in last week he discoverd that he had issue with the way they oporated.  Do you think that means he can keep an eye on Iran and the department of labour?

 

The two dem contestants are playing chicken.  If they both fight to the end they both go down in a death spiral.  Each one is making explanations about how the other one should step aside.  

 

This contest is not about two people.  It is about two elements of the Demacratic party.  Keeping those elements together has been a chalenge in past elections.   The traditional downscail ecconomic democrates go with Hillarie.  The up scail cultural librales go with Obama and together with the blacks bring the party very close to a tipping point but not over it. Yet.  Obamas people are hungry for that tiping point and see it is transformational ways.  If "Bush light" (their words) in the guise of Hill shuts them down they could go to nader.

 

 

                                       .......bad is the way you get it.

I should have said that a few % of them could go to Nader and another few % stay home. 

 

Imagine having red states for McCain.   Purple states for Obama and orange states for Hill.  So it means very little if Hill can beat O in Hills states.  Can Hill beat Mc in Bush states?  She gotta get one or two.  That's the question. 

 

"Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow" is turning into "You Can Go Your Own Way."  ("It's Not That Funny Is It?")

 

Worse yet the kids are "Waiting For The World To Change?"

People have been struggling with the idea of Gods judgment since Isaac was an alter boy.

 

When you criticize some one it can be very helpful to be clear and particular about what you feel is wrong.  Obamas crazy uncle is a big dead weight.   His Amos sermons hit the press and O's favor ability ratings fell like bricks once.  The book of Amos talks about a rich Israelite king who wants to be like the other kings so he exercised emanate domain on a poor farmers land.  God gets pissed.  Israel is judged for being proud and decadent wile exploiting the poor. 

When we pledge allegiance to one nation under God we mean that we submit our selves to Gods judgment.  Or maybe it means that we don't submit our selves to the judgment of foreign priests (Anglican ?) on the payroll of foreign kings.  On occasion American have been successfully called to repentance with Abraham Lincoln and Martin Luther King being the poster boys for that history.  If a  leader says "I fear for my country when I think that God is just" Americans can more or less take it.  To very important part of the are the "I fear"  or I want to avoid calamity and "my country" or I am in this with the rest of you.  A real prophet calls people to repentance.   The prophet Nathan didn't got the halls of Davids enemy and say, "Mighty king David is so scarred of your army that he is hiding in the married offices housing and knocking up the war widows a little too soon."   Rather Nathan went to David and with a little bit of grace told the king he had acted like a bastard.  Prophets have a very high attrition rate.  So did Rev. "Chickens coming home to ruest" stand with white American and call us to repentance or did he separate his flock and make them laugh at our pain.  Images of dancing on graves come to mind.

 

So Obama could start looking for a "Sister Souljah moment" or praise Bill Cosby for truth telling.  What he can't do is say, "I went to that church to 'get my black on' and be viable candidate for office.  The would make him look silly for complaining about Geraldine Ferraro saying he couldn't get nominated if he was white.  So this cycles "swift boat" team will be people from Chicago who were around wile O was a street organizer.  What do street organizers do?  Obama better make sure he is the one answering that question.

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No one get thrown under the bus.  Not Obamas pastor and not Obama.  Now that he is being attacked for being black they can't elbow him out.  That ship has sailed.  He may get pressured to give Hill the vp slot.  After all she was willing to give vp to him. 

 

His negative can now be pushed over 50%.  He therefore needs to run a Hillary like campaign. Ouch.

Top Reasons Obama Wins Nomination. 

 

5.  "....she's the particular woman who taught the 4th grade class that every man in America wished he were dead in." "America's ex-wife."  So says P.J. O'Rourke, on the election   P.J.O'Rourke.

 

 

4. I am a government Junky.  I have a million Ideas and the government can't afford them all. So says Hillary

 

 

3. Ted Kennedy and the other silver back alpa's of the party are not about to give up their kingdoms into Bills new Empire. Obama is more controllable like a good P.R. asset.  So says Ted and Nancy.

 

 

2. Hillary can't make with t