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Subject: Shocking Results of Iraqi Public Opinion Poll
James Dunnigan    3/19/2004 7:32:16 AM

A large scale opinion survey in Iraq, sponsored by several foreign media networks, found that 70 percent of Iraqis thought they were doing well, and 56 percent believed life was better than before the war. Some 70 percent were optimistic about the future.

Iraqis are glad to see Saddam gone, but upset that foreigners had to do it. Thus 49 percent thought the coalition invasion was justified, while 39 percent think it was wrong. While 41.8 percent said the war liberated Iraq, 41.2 percent said Iraq was humiliated. Only 39 percent wanted foreign troops to remain in the country. As for the attacks on foreign troops, 17 percent approved (21 percent of Iraqi Arabs approved of this, but only two percent of Iraqi Kurds.) Overall, 78 percent said the attacks on coalition troops were unacceptable, although that went up to 96.6 percent for attacks on Iraqi police. Understandably, lack of law and order is seen as the most pressing need (22.1 percent of respondents), followed by unemployment (11.8 percent), inflation (9.5 percent), electricity shortages (4.2 percent), housing problems (4.1 percent) and the quality of infrastructure (water supply, road repair and so on, 3.7 percent). The events that make headlines outside of Iraq mean little to the average Iraqi, as only 1.8 percent thought terrorist attacks were the most important issue in their lives, and only .2 percent were concerned about religious and ethnic strife inside Iraq.

Only 20 percent of Iraqis wanted an Islamic state, and 75 percent wanted a strong, unified state, without special privileges for Kurds or anyone else. Religious leaders are trusted the most (by 42.4 percent), and coalition forces the least (4.3 percent). Iraqis now want democratically elected leaders (55.3 percent), but even more they want a strong leader. Saddam Hussein is still respected for his "power" by many Iraqis. While 15.1 percent of Iraqis want coalition forces to leave immediately, 53.3 percent want them to stay until a functioning Iraqi government is in place, or peace is restored to the country.

The survey was conducted by Iraqis, who were hired and trained by the polling organization, Oxford Research International. One thing the survey makes very clear is that most foreign media reporting on Iraq are reporting what they want to see the Iraqi people thinking, not what the Iraqis are actually thinking. This, however, is not unique to Iraq, although European and Arab media tend to be even more distorted in their reporting than is usually the case.

 
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bsl    RE:Iraqi opinion - bump back on topic   4/5/2004 9:03:29 PM
As almost any issue in the region, it's complicated. But, yes, that one has the potential to explode. One nightmare scenario? (Just to start the ball rolling.) -- We decide we want to arrest/seize Sadr, the nutso Shi'a in the south who has been calling for armed attacks on Americans, recently. But, we dither and he has a chance to hole up in a mosque, with his cadre guarding him, then the local muzzeins fire up their loudspeakers and from the minarets come calls to take to the streets to defend the mosque(s) from the Americans who are coming to defile them. We show up with an insufficient force, are faced down by the mob outside Sadr's sanctuary, and this, in turn, brings even more people out into the street. By the time the Nightly News is on-air, there are ten thousand or more Shi'a in the street, some armed, most ready to kill any American or foreigner they see. We back down, are seen to be retreating, and Sadr's faction become more and more popular, and some other, competing clerics come on-board. We have a spiralling Shi'a revolt, led by a virulently anti-American religious leader. He's not Persian and won't be a tool of the Iranians, but he'd be a parallel problem with a natural ally on the eastern border. An ally whose own religious leaders are on the verge of going nuclear and would probably be happy to help Iraqis bleed America as they are helping Palestinians bleed Israel.
 
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mike_golf    To rixtex: Morality as a cassus belli   4/5/2004 10:05:41 PM
The short answer is that I feel that a people that stands for certain ethics and morality has to do more than just talk about those principles. While I feel strongly that genocide, human rights and war crimes are a cassus belli and all the justification needed for war to prevent such things I also feel that other considerations have to come into play. For example, all those factors were certainly present in the Cold War, but are we going to fight a hot war that will kill potentially tens or hundreds of millions? The same applies to China, and even North Korea, today. If North Korea has a nuclear weapon the potential devastation on the Korean peninsula outweighs the current short term cost. And it is fairly obvious that by engaging these countries diplomatically, economically and culturally we are able to effect change. I think the real test is whether the use of military force will make the problem better, or make it worse. Sometimes you have to take a risk. Sometimes it is pretty clear. Kuwait in 1991 was pretty clear, making Iraq leave Kuwait was pretty clear cut making things better for the Kuwaitis. The assistance to the Northern Alliance and intervention in Afghanistan was also pretty clear cut, as was Rwanda, althoug we didn't take action there. The genocide that took place in the former Yugoslavia pretty clearly required outside intervention to prevent. I'm trying to figure out how to balance out the risks, weigh out whether intervention is going to fix the issues or create new ones, and so forth. But I do know this, an ethical man should not stand by and do nothing when he has the power to prevent a crime.
 
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Green Dragon    RE:TO The LATEST INCARNATION OF GBWR 2 - FROM SYSOPS    4/16/2004 5:52:18 AM
No. GetBackIntegratedLeftistPersonalities I am pipe dreaming..
 
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Green Dragon    RE:To rixtex: Morality as a cassus belli   4/16/2004 5:55:54 AM
Absolutely. Evil flourishes when good men do nothing. -Can't recall who coined that gem. None of us will live for ever, we need to think of our children and grandchildren..
 
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Thomas    RE:To Our Posters from SysOps MG   4/19/2004 8:21:48 AM
I does look funny when SYSOP has nuked someone. What a lot of Paprika - and not the sweet sort either!! A minor correction: You should have said redheaded Swede, at a redheaded Norwegean would be counterproductive in so far as the discoverer of America in all propability was redheaded - his father was at least - AND he was a Norwegean.
 
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