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Subject: The War in Iraq That Isn't Reported
James Dunnigan    12/30/2004 1:01:45 AM

Two al Qaeda leaders (Saleh Arugayan Kahlil and Bassim Mohammad Hazeem)  were captured by marines in Anbar province (which contains Fallujah) in late December. These two men led groups that have been killing off duty Iraqi soldiers and smuggling weapons and foreign terrorists across the border from Syria. Their boss, Abu Musab al Zarqawi, a Jordanian Islamic radical who had been hiding out in Baghdad, as a guest of Saddam Hussein, when Iraq was invaded in early 2003, is still at large. With the defeat of Saddam, al Zarqawi suddenly found  Iraqi Sunni Arabs were eager to join al Qaeda. The Baath Party, which had run the country for four decades, was now willing to do more than offer sanctuary for al Qaeda members. Baath had money and manpower they made available. Al Qaeda and Baath had one thing in common; they wanted the foreigners out of Iraq. Beyond that, they had quite different goals. 

Al Qaeda wanted the world converted to Islam, and ruled as an Islamic state, according to al Qaedas strict interpretation of Islamic law. Al Qaeda and the Taliban came close to this in Afghanistan. There was another Islamic Republic in Iran, but that was run by Shia Moslems. Shia are considered heretics by the conservative Sunni Moslems that lead al Qaeda. This had not prevented Iran from offering sanctuary to for a small group of Kurdish Islamic radicals, Ansar al Islam. This group operated on the border of northern Iraq and Iran until dispersed by Kurdish troops and American Special Forces in 2003. Survivors of Ansar fled to Iran, then snuck back into Iraq this year and set up shop in mixed Arab-Kurd areas like Mosul. The Baath Party and al Qaeda leaders have put aside the issue of who will rule Iraq once the Americans are driven out. And well they should, because taking control of Iraq appears to be an impossible goal. But al Qaeda has provided a force of young men who are fanatical, and undaunted by American firepower and the Iraqi  populations desire for democracy. 

Baath was impressed by the ability of al Qaeda to get young men to fight for free, and to carry out suicide attacks. Baath's Iraqi manpower was either former secret police and Republican Guard members, who were out of a job and fearful of retribution from the kin of their victims. If Baath provided some of that lost salary, these fellows were willing to carry on as before. Other Iraqis were willing to carry out tasks like planting roadside bombs and collecting information, for a fee.  But the Baath Party plan for taking back power depended on  uniting the Sunni Arab population behind them, and then somehow regaining control of the Kurdish and Shia Arab population. Baath quickly discovered that many Sunni Arabs wanted no part of the Baath Party, and were joining the new government police force and army. But Baath knew how to deal with this. Over decades, Baath, and especially their former leader, Saddam Hussein developed terror tactics that were very effective in controlling the population of Iraq. The Baath was largely a Sunni Arab party, and using these hard core members, threats were made to Sunni Arabs who were working for the new government. If threats didn't work, kidnapping and murder were used. Kidnap one member of a family, and you get the cooperation of the entire family, and often a ransom as well. Despite these efforts, the Sunni Arab police and army units continued to form. Many of these Sunni Arab police and troops fled when confronted by Baath and al Qaeda gunmen. The al Qaeda suicide bombing attacks on police stations and army bases were particularly terrifying. But still Sunni Arabs continued to resist backing Baath. 

The government responded by bringing in Kurdish and Shia Arab police, as well as having police and army units operate more closely with American troops. When the soldiers and police could be assured that their families were safe from the Baath and al Qaeda terrorists, they would fight, and not just pick up a paycheck. Providing that safety meant driving out the Baath party thugs town by town, and neighborhood by neighborhood. This had been done in Kurdish areas ten years ago. There was no Baath party terror in Kurdish areas, although occasionally an al Qaeda suicide bomber got in. This didn't terrorize as much as increase Kurdish resolve to crush Baath and al Qaeda. In Shia Arab areas, nearly all the Baath party members fled in early 2003. Those that were slow to leave, were killed by vengeful Shias. 

But many areas in central Iraq have mixed Shia/Sunni and Kurdish/Sunni populations. Here the Baath Party enforcers can establish bases among the Sunni population, and carry out terror operations against the Kurds and Shia Arabs. This has not been working. The media reports the attacks, but not the reaction of the Kurdish and Shia Arab population. More Kurds and Shia Ar

 
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bwp    RE:The War in Iraq That Isn't Reported    12/30/2004 1:00:28 PM
Good thoughts in your article. Did 6 months in N. Iraq this spring. Bremer screwed up when he set up CPA to run Iraq from Baghdad rather than from the provinces. He also banned the militias, which are the tribal chiefs main source of power. The way to control the country is predominantly through the tribal chiefs, and then the imams. The Iraqs are not going to fight for Allawi, but they will fight for their tribal and religious leaders. What we have failed to do is build up the power of the moderate Sunni tribal chiefs. Money is the most valuable asset we have, and we are wasting it by requiring "competition" for reconstruction contracts instead of directing it to chiefs that are allied to our cause. (They wouldn't get it free, they would have to employ their tribes in reconstruction projects) The Barzanis and the Talibanis (Kurds) claim to lead "political parties", but these are nothing but extended tribal families. Tribal chiefs take this money, and distribute through their tribes in the form of wages and food in return for loyalty. I still think this would be the fastest way to end the insurgency.
 
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clevermonkey    RE:The War in Iraq That Isn't Reported    1/2/2005 12:08:36 AM
What a farce. File Dunnigan's story under "Light At The End Of The Tunnel". The Neocons bought and cooked the intelligence to get their war, but inexplicably believed their own propaganda. They thought they were so much smarter than the rest of us, they could seize the second biggest oil reserves in the Middle East, install a puppet government, and use their new bases to project power and control the rest of the region. Welcome to the NFL. The Neocon Empire didn't even get off the ground before hubris destroyed it. From the perspective of US strategic interests the war is long since lost, and they still won't admit any mistakes were made! Listen. There is not a finite amount of insurgents to kill, we are creating more with each day we are there. They have thoroughly penetrated all of "our" Iraqi security services, and through them have a constant flow of intelligence about us. Blame it on bias all you want, but there is no denying the steady attrition of dead and especially wounded US soldiers, the inconsequence of foreign troops, and the continued failure of all the but the smallest and most elite of Iraqi units. This is after a year and a half of our best efforts, no one in Iraq has any illusions about our future chances. They will continue to join the police because the economy is dead and no work exists, but they will also continue to pass intelligence about us to the enemy and desert whenever called upon to do more than huddle in their stations or direct traffic. Dunnigan may be convinced we're popular and winning, but the people who live in Iraq whose lives depend upon a correct assessment of the situation do not. The entire 700 person election team in Mosul just quit en masse after being told to by the insurgency. Suicide bombers are penetrating the green zone and US military bases. If Iraqi troops on our side had even one comparable success you could pretend, but come on, at some point you have to face reality. Yes, Dunnigan has the brilliant and original insight that Sunnis and Shias, and Sunnis and Kurds don't like each other. That doesn't translate into acceptance of the US. If the election is fixed and some Allawi type CIA stooge is put in place we'll just contiue the current course but all the Shias will rebel as well and we'll be driven out in utter defeat. If the election is even somewhat fair a Sistani blessed coalition (my money's on Dawa to emerge as the key players) will take power and show us the door, conservatives will pretend we've won some moral victory as Iran extends its sphere of influence. You know, the Persians, been in the neighborhood with some 3,000 years of continuous civilization, those people. Yeah boy, those Neocons, so much smarter and bolder than the rest of us. Besides Rumsfeld, who's obviously gone after January 30th, who will you blame this time for Losing A War?
 
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clevermonkey    RE:The War in Iraq That Isn't Reported    1/2/2005 1:30:58 AM
As long as my typing is warmed up, I might as well continue. What went wrong? Everything. Let me try it this way: what MIGHT have worked? Well, invading with at least 400,000(?) troops, however many would have been needed to not just brush aside some republican guard but to secure ALL the major military sites, credibly seal the borders, and authoritatively establish security if not rule of law by crushing all civil disturbance. With an absence of looting and anarchy, services could be restored sooner and reconstuction funds could be let out to Iraqi's in meaningful amounts. Rather than disband the army and try to build a new force up from zero, maintain the army and begin a slow and measured vetting process to winnow it down. Give Iraqi soldiers a motivation to keep their noses clean and stay among the majority drawing a decent paycheck rather than the minority out on the street and facing suspicion if not reprisals. The thing is, Iraqi's lived in a state of total paranoia and brutality, we would have done a lot better to just decapitate the leadership, publicly humiliate and punish them, while co-opting the existing structure and GRADUALLY ratcheting back on the internal security apparatus. As long as the reform progress was steady and continual, and we made our long term intentions clear, everybody would have cut us slack because we represented improvement. By progressively kicking the worst offenders out to whatever fate awaited them while bringing excluded players in the US would have drawn condemnation for its cold bloodedness but could have potentially maintained created a virtuous cycle of stability based upon Iraqi institutions rather than the vicious cycle of terrorist attack and US military firepower response that we got. Given tactical stability, a long term solution of course required a major political realignment. The State Department sponsored an extensive planning process involving US experts and a broad range of Iraqi's, producing detailed blueprints for the transition. All of this was killed by the Neocons, who gave control of postwar politics to the Pentagon, who in turn forbid military officers to participate in the planning and instead put all their eggs in the Chalabi basket and being welcomed with flowers as liberators. And here is the crux of the problem. This war was cooked up by a Neocon cabal. People forget that UN inspectors were on the ground in Iraq in 2001, it was Bush and not Saddaam who made them go, because they were not finding WMD's and were getting in the way of his war. All the intelligence supporting WMD's (the original reason for the war) either predated Gulf War I or was provided by defectors controlled by Chalabi's group. The point is, this administration is both corrupt and incompetent, and discussion of what should have been done runs up against the reality that these things never could be done because they conflicted with the core goals and methods of the Neocons. So what did we get? Not enough arabic translators to even sort through current intelligence, much less make a difference communicating with Iraqi's out in the field. No-bid no-audit reconstruction contracts given to politically connected firms, who were unable to produce any results (and weren't required to)when Iraq turned out to be less than a cakewalk. The collapse of the Iraqi economy while political hacks sat in Saddam's old palaces writing up Neocon dream policies of flat taxes and total privatization to impose on liberated Iraq. 24 year old children of major republican party donors running the american "Iraqi" TV network, filling it with music videos and Egyptian cooking shows while Al-Jazeera showed endless loops of US soldiers and suffering Iraqi's. An insurgency free to take weapons from unsecured Iraqi military depots across the country because we had too few troops to guard them, while US allied Iraqi forces continued (and continue) to lack basic equipment like radios and adequate weapons. It's actually reasonably well documented if you dare expose yourself to the mainstream, sorry, Liberal media like the NY Times and Washington Post. The details of the incompetence and corruption are shocking, but give a better context for understanding the reality of US failure in Iraq than the past two years of confident insider assurances that everything will be just fine that Strategypage has stuck to.
 
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