just a quick thought, and it would go to the cost of Georgia, but wouldnt the easiest solution be to integrate Georgia into Nato, after giving independence to South Ossetia and Abchasia ? 

I agree, but for that nationalist pride thing that tends to sabotage deals like this.

 

SGTObvious

Seperating the issues would be a start in my opinion, they are now all lumped together into one basket. (all parties involved being guilty)

- The issue of Ossetia.

- The issue of democracy in the region.

- EC membership.

- Nato membership.

- The anti ballistic missile shield.

- And the stuff I cannot think of right away.

Because an anti ballistic missile system to counter Iran in it's essence has nothing to do with the issue of Ossetia. A state does not have to be a member of Nato or the EU to become more democratic. Etc, etc.

 

This way when there is a problem with the anti ballistic missile shield it will not affect democracy in the region. Etc, etc.

 

I'm now in the wierd postion where I consider what the Bush administration has done right in the Middle East might be negated by what they have done wrong in Eastern Europe. Have to take the good with the bad I guess.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

just a quick thought, and it would go to the cost of Georgia, but wouldnt the easiest solution be to integrate Georgia into Nato, after giving independence to South Ossetia and Abchasia ?

The Georgians would be safe from further Russian agression, and the Russkies would loose the only argument they have for agression, that is the protection of its own citizens in Ossetia.

The Georgians have no control there anyway, and both "Provinces" have only caused them trouble in the last century.

Calling it a solution is deceiving ourselves. Right now, one way or another we(and that means the whole West) shall have to pay a danegeld and we might as well admit it.

admit it to ourselves. Maybe we can recoup a bit of prestiege later, but that is all we can hope for.

Why Not Admit Georgia Into NATO Now?

Because Westerners are a bunch of Wusses and nukes make playing that sort of game less amusing in any case.

If we admit Georgia we will be saying that we are willing to fight for it when we most assuredly are not.

And not fighting for a country we admit to Nato, calls NATO into question.

On the other hand, history shows that incremental aggression is one of the most effective forms.

There are  other ways. We can mail a lot of money to them, give them such things as land mines and send a bunch of 

former Green Berets as volunteers to teach partisan war. And do other things to make Russia think it might be letting itself

in for another Afghanistan.

If this is to unsubtle, someone else can probably figure out something. But we must not commit ourselves to far.

I wonder whether we ought to be organizing insurgencies in Abkhazia and South Ossetia now through SOCOM.

 

But perhaps we could first admit Georgia and then use Georgia as a site for clandestine and special ops training of NATO troops.

 

Don't be having this imperial mindset. We don't need another money hole in Georgia. We don't need more problems with Russia... we should just limit ourselves to keeping Russia from further movements. We don't need to solve someone's problems. We should admit that Ossetia and Abkhazia are lost... Russia was there for so long that provinces just do not see themselves as part of Georgia. Russian influence turned local insurgency against Georgia into province-wide movement to unite with Russia. People in those regions WANT to be with Russia. Georgia was out of the loop for far too long... they cannot re-establish themselves there... period. Force will achieve nothing. Russian can do the same thing back to Georgia... and force will turn Ossetian people away even more. You can try propaganda to change moods, but Russians are far better at it there because they are in place and they know the local culture better than our intel service. As far as Georgia in NATO, you have to remember that Georgia is pretty much third world country (and I know it from personal experience) that does not belong in NATO. At best we can guarantee that Russians will not move further into Georgia by establishing American bases there. This will be mutually beneficial, as we might need air bases to strike Iran if we have to. There are no other sensible solutions.

I'm rather dubious about whether they actually want to be with Russia but much of that is true.

 My main worry is this. Incremental expansionism is Russia's traditional strategy and is very hard to counter

 because each instance is small enough to be a write-off but the collective is rather different.

 

 

I'm rather dubious about whether they actually want to be with Russia but much of that is true.

 My main worry is this. Incremental expansionism is Russia's traditional strategy and is very hard to counter

 because each instance is small enough to be a write-off but the collective is rather different.