CJH, you just described a book by Tom Clancy called "Red Storm Rising". But in the Novel, the Soviets plant a bomb in the Kremlin, then turn around and accuse the West Germans of trying to assassinate the Politburo.

 

Which, being said, would not be a bad provocation to invade Poland, To bring the "Assassians" to justice, etc.

 

The Russian's already have a formula for invading countries, taking over the airports via special forces, etc.

 

All in all, I think it would be highly unlikely that Russia would invade any other eastern european countries. The Georgian "conflict" has tipped their hand too much, letting everyone know that they want to be the big, bad regional power.

Pakistan which is a lot poorer then Poland developed nukes to defend themselfs from a much larger India. Poland has more money and more skilled people then Pakistan so it seems like they could either build or buy nukes of there own.

 

NATO and/or the US could intervene to stop Russia or we could leave Poland on the own to defend themselfs. With NATO and/or the US helping Poland your talking about a conventional war.

 

Poland left on there own could take one look at Pakistan and decide that nuke's are the only way they could prevent Russia from attacking Poland.

 

So NATO could either find oil and gas someplace else or get used to liveing under radioactive fallout.

Im talking about the real pretext, not fabricated by Kremlin. I repeat - Moscow does NOT need Poland. If it ever gets to taking\getting back (depends on the point of view) new\old lands, on the western direction the ideal scenario would be Belarus, eastern and central Ukraine, with western Ukraine going to Poland.

I agree with the remarks about Poland and the Ukraine. I can easily see Russia at least annexing the Eastern half.

 

But why Belarus? Isn't it already a puppet of Russia and fully dependent as you also wrote?

I doubt it's necessary, for now, to fully annex Belarus.

 

"Im talking about the real pretext, not fabricated by Kremlin. I repeat - Moscow does NOT need Poland. If it ever gets to taking\getting back (depends on the point of view) new\old lands, on the western direction the ideal scenario would be Belarus, eastern and central Ukraine, with western Ukraine going to Poland."

 

The Merriam Webster online dictionary definition of pretext - "a purpose or motive alleged or an appearance assumed in order to cloak the real intention or state of affairs".

 

So the pretext I was referring to would be a real alleged motive or a real assumed appearance. That is - I was ruling out the existence of a legitimate motive.

"Im talking about the real pretext, not fabricated by Kremlin."

 

Is it not plain that Russia's given reason for invading Georgia is a false one? How really credible is it that any nation can move a force the size of Russia's as quickly as it did? It seems to be evident that the invasion of Georgia by Russia was planned and set up before Russia had its given reason to invade.

I doubt it's necessary, for now, to fully annex Belarus.

Dude, this would never happen. I mean there would have to be some major geopolitical shifts. However, the shifts that would be necessary are all very very possible in our lifetimes. I think it's 50/50 that Poland and Russia will share a border in the near future, and the Poles know this.

 

As for subterfuge, if you envision a 5th column.... think again. There is not really any Russian minority that would actively work on Russia's behalf for sabotage or to stir up domenstic violence thus justifying a "rescue mission". Nor is there a pro Russia minority that could be formed into an anti Polish militia. So an attack from within as in WW2 where a Silesia ethnic German militia carried out actions is not possible.

 

However, in the Ukraine, the case is different. The country is split along Russian/Ukrainian lines and although the current Political elite are mostly Ukrainian, a lot of the people in the east are ethnic Russians. Bielorus is also a big question mark. If one or both of these countries rejoined Russia, an attack on Poland could be possible.

 

I think it's quite possible the Russians would like to punish the Poles for accepting the missle shield. I am pro Polish but i belive this was a major tactical error by the Poles. They are simply stirring up a hornets' nest and a few Patriot missles are not going to make Poland safer. They are simply antagonizing Russia and pushing it toward a more aggressive foreign policy. Russia would love to have Poland as a buffer zone.

 

However, morale is major consideration. The Poles would never ever accept Russian domination again, not in this lifetime. Hell, I would get on a plane myself and head to Olsztyn to fight off the Russian hordes if they attacked. The Russians would have to make a major commitment to take Poland, but ultimately they could .

 

The Poles would base their defensive on waterways, not on the borders, to allow for maneuvering space; seek to draw the Russians into cities once river-based defences fell, to offset the Russian armored and numerical advantage. Special emphasis would be placed on the Wisla river defences to the north to protect the Gdansk port where supplies from the west would be pouring in. If no foreign aid were forthcoming from the west, i would think the Poles would eventually fall back from their river defence lines into the cities for urban combat, except to the North where an enclave around Gdansk would be maintained.

 

As in WW2, survival for the Poles would be contingent upon the west coming to their rescue. If the Russians were deadset on taking Poland, and the Poles had no help from the outside, not counting myself of course, they could not hold forever.

 

 

 

If you would bother to take a look at the Map,  the Russians could NOT invade Poland  !    Not unless they would take the Baltics first.  At this stage, Europe mobilizes ...   make no mistake about it, if there is anything that drives Europeans crazy its the f---g Russkie on your frontdoor.  Germany would throw everything East to keep the fighting away from the homeland, as would all the other European states.  Why do you think do we share a tank division with Poland ?