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Subject: Could The Russians Conduct A Surprise Invasion Of Poland?
CJH    8/22/2008 5:50:50 PM
How Would The Russians Conduct A Surprise Invasion Of Poland?

Could they do it?

What subterfuge would be necessary in order to minimize the chance of opposition?

Would The Russians have to invade Ukraine, Lithuania or Belarus in order to succeed?

Would they initiate their assault from Kaliningrad and support their spearhead with forces arriving through Latvia and Lithuania?

 
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VelocityVector       8/22/2008 6:18:53 PM
Russia can either nuke Poland back into the Stone Age such that NATO could perceive no valid reason to intervene or else whittle the country away by stoking internal dissension until Russia gets invited to encroach.  Russian leadership cannot prevail in a conventional battle against NATO, Russian losses would be so dramatic that it would shock even the Russian national conscience.

v^2
 
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Nanheyangrouchuan       8/22/2008 9:30:03 PM

Russia can either nuke Poland back into the Stone Age such that NATO could perceive no valid reason to intervene or else whittle the country away by stoking internal dissension until Russia gets invited to encroach.  Russian leadership cannot prevail in a conventional battle against NATO, Russian losses would be so dramatic that it would shock even the Russian national conscience.

v^2



I imagine that the Russians would turn off NATO's oil and gas first, limiting the ability to respond and the Europeans have no taste for a fight anyways.
 
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CJH       8/23/2008 12:00:13 AM

Russia can either nuke Poland back into the Stone Age such that NATO could perceive no valid reason to intervene or else whittle the country away by stoking internal dissension until Russia gets invited to encroach.  Russian leadership cannot prevail in a conventional battle against NATO, Russian losses would be so dramatic that it would shock even the Russian national conscience.

v^2



That begs the question as to whether our NATO allies would have the political will, given their economic interests, to fight Russia.
 
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afrc       8/23/2008 1:04:44 AM
That begs the question as to whether our NATO allies would have the political will, given their economic interests, to fight Russia.
 
Well, Poland did sign ABM treaty with US despite war in Georgia and some strong posturing from Russia. Baltic states also would love to stick it to the old boss. However, the real question is what pretext would Russia use to invade Poland? The response of other NATO members will depend on moral justification and popular support. At the end all NATO countries realize that if they don't respond to protect one country when they are morally right, it will be their turn next when Russia does not like something about them. Divided we fall.
As far as interests, Russian economy benefits greatly from oil and gas sales, so both sides have something to lose from the conflict.
Russian military has no way of conducting a large ground operation without being noticed. Military buildup in Kaliningrad area will prompt an equal buildup on the other side. Russia will have more problems suppling the troops across the Baltic Sea. Russian Air Force does not have enough of the latest planes to counter NATO Air Force... especially if US sends Raptors to Europe (and there are more than 100 of them in service). Russia can try to use tactical missiles to strike Poland and prompt NATO to cross into Russia and fight in on friendly territory. All NATO has to do is destroy as much as possible (power plants, oil storages, refineries, pipelines, water systems, grain storage, railways, bridges) and let Russian Winter finish the job. Russian PVO still needs a lot of work to be able to counter a massive air strike. There will be a lot of planes lost, but it is doable. Not a good option for Russians. And once again you have nukes... but we all know how this story ends.
 
So it is hard to answer your question in general. One has to know all the details before starting to speculate. 
 
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CJH       8/23/2008 4:27:13 PM
I suppose that a clandestine Russian presence in Poland and its neighbors would be and probably is a fact.
 
Agents provocateurs might be useful for creating a pretext which would need only to remain unexposed long enough for the Russians to react. Confronted by a Russian occupation as a fait accompli, what could the West do to Russia even if the cause was suspicious?
 
 
 
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Knjaz       8/26/2008 2:17:30 PM
It's hard to think of pretext for this invasion. Russia dont need to annex Poland. And ABM sites can be taken out by nukes or massive air assaults (of course, those Patriots in Poland greatly increases chances that nukes will be used in case of war, instead of conventional bombers).
There's nothing more that could lead to a Russian attack on Poland.
 
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StevoJH       8/27/2008 12:48:55 PM



Russia can either nuke Poland back into the Stone Age such that NATO could perceive no valid reason to intervene or else whittle the country away by stoking internal dissension until Russia gets invited to encroach.  Russian leadership cannot prevail in a conventional battle against NATO, Russian losses would be so dramatic that it would shock even the Russian national conscience.


v^2







I imagine that the Russians would turn off NATO's oil and gas first, limiting the ability to respond and the Europeans have no taste for a fight anyways.

The only reply i can think of to your "have not taste for a fight" comment, is that, isnt that what hitler thought of the British in WWII? :P
 
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CJH       8/30/2008 12:31:28 PM







Russia can either nuke Poland back into the Stone Age such that NATO could perceive no valid reason to intervene or else whittle the country away by stoking internal dissension until Russia gets invited to encroach.  Russian leadership cannot prevail in a conventional battle against NATO, Russian losses would be so dramatic that it would shock even the Russian national conscience.






v^2















I imagine that the Russians would turn off NATO's oil and gas first, limiting the ability to respond and the Europeans have no taste for a fight anyways.




The only reply i can think of to your "have not taste for a fight" comment, is that, isnt that what hitler thought of the British in WWII? :P




Let us hope.
However, your example is from a time when there was an extreme aversion to war on the part of national leaders and people who had experienced WWI. A repeat of Verdun, Passchendael, the Somme, etc was what people feared.
 
That was a very understandable practical aversion but is not the EU's current attitude toward war more of a philosophical character?
 
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CJH       8/30/2008 12:35:07 PM

I was disregarding the EU's economic interests.
 
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CJH       8/30/2008 1:01:01 PM

It's hard to think of pretext for this invasion. Russia dont need to annex Poland. And ABM sites can be taken out by nukes or massive air assaults (of course, those Patriots in Poland greatly increases chances that nukes will be used in case of war, instead of conventional bombers).

There's nothing more that could lead to a Russian attack on Poland.



I am sure the Kremlin has some very imaginative and creative people working for it. I can't rise to their level but I can make an attempt which at least suggests something of the kind.
Perhaps a presumably smuggled low yield nuclear device is or devices are discovered in eastern Europe/Russia. One might even be detonated somewhere. The Russians "investigate" and find some kind of connection with clandestine activity in or somehow connected to Poland. Perhaps Chechens are implicated. Perhaps the Russian or other mafia is involved. The Russians decide this is what you get with a new eastern Europe and resolve to set things right.
 
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Stranger Danger    Like a Tom Clancy Novel   8/30/2008 1:54:43 PM
CJH, you just described a book by Tom Clancy called "Red Storm Rising". But in the Novel, the Soviets plant a bomb in the Kremlin, then turn around and accuse the West Germans of trying to assassinate the Politburo.
 
Which, being said, would not be a bad provocation to invade Poland, To bring the "Assassians" to justice, etc.
 
The Russian's already have a formula for invading countries, taking over the airports via special forces, etc.
 
All in all, I think it would be highly unlikely that Russia would invade any other eastern european countries. The Georgian "conflict" has tipped their hand too much, letting everyone know that they want to be the big, bad regional power.
 
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historynut       8/30/2008 3:42:14 PM
Pakistan which is a lot poorer then Poland developed nukes to defend themselfs from a much larger India. Poland has more money and more skilled people then Pakistan so it seems like they could either build or buy nukes of there own.
 
NATO and/or the US could intervene to stop Russia or we could leave Poland on the own to defend themselfs. With NATO and/or the US helping Poland your talking about a conventional war.
 
Poland left on there own could take one look at Pakistan and decide that nuke's are the only way they could prevent Russia from attacking Poland.
 
So NATO could either find oil and gas someplace else or get used to liveing under radioactive fallout.
 
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Knjaz       8/31/2008 4:29:34 AM

I am sure the Kremlin has some very imaginative and creative people working for it. I can't rise to their level but I can make an attempt which at least suggests something of the kind.


Perhaps a presumably smuggled low yield nuclear device is or devices are discovered in eastern Europe/Russia. One might even be detonated somewhere. The Russians "investigate" and find some kind of connection with clandestine activity in or somehow connected to Poland. Perhaps Chechens are implicated. Perhaps the Russian or other mafia is involved. The Russians decide this is what you get with a new eastern Europe and resolve to set things right.



Im talking about the real pretext, not fabricated by Kremlin. I repeat - Moscow does NOT need Poland. If it ever gets to taking\getting back (depends on the point of view) new\old lands, on the western direction the ideal scenario would be Belarus, eastern and central Ukraine, with western Ukraine going to Poland.

Seconldy, talking about what happened in South Ossetia - i pretty well remember the attitude to Medvedev in russian internet community during the first 15 hours of Georgian invasion - everybody waited "when the f*ck he is gonna pull in our troops. What is he waiting for?! more deaths?!" - that would represent the opinion of some 80-90%.
And I can say u that if he didnt do that - not only he would lose very large part of his support, but the people of Northern Caucasus would certailnly turn away from Russia. Such decision (not to protect SO) would be a catastrophe for himself personally, and for Russia too. So, he had no choice, thats all. And no, there wasnt intention to show "how f....g strong Russia is. And that Georgia wont even think about joining NATO." Actually, it has absolutely nothing with Georgia joining NATO.
 
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afrc       8/31/2008 4:02:32 PM

Im talking about the real pretext, not fabricated by Kremlin. I repeat - Moscow does NOT need Poland. If it ever gets to taking\getting back (depends on the point of view) new\old lands, on the western direction the ideal scenario would be Belarus, eastern and central Ukraine, with western Ukraine going to Poland.

I agree and disagree. Moscow does not need Poland's territory, but it probably needs Poland to prove to the Russian folks that West is evil and anti-Russian and they need to stick with the strong government that can protect them... Putin already said that Georgian war was probably organized by USA (nice!). Russian government can't find a better example than Poland: it's small and it's loudly anti-Russian, it's part of NATO and it's on the border, it hosts "aggressive" ABM system. Putin probably prays for Poland every day before he goes to bed. It's the perfect way to consolidate people around current Russian government.
Ukraine and Belarus is another matter. I can imagine some scenarios that involve Ukraine and Belarus. Pretext is easy to find - Ukraine has Crimea that historically did not belong to it at all. Eastern Ukraine leans toward Russia. There is a political instability in Ukraine that can be exploited. Belarus is almost helpless without Russia and can be absorbed into it under some circumstances... maybe if Russia threatens to cut oil and gas and forces Lukashenko to make some difficult desisions.
 

 
Seconldy, talking about what happened in South Ossetia - i pretty well remember the attitude to Medvedev in russian internet community during the first 15 hours of Georgian invasion - everybody waited "when the f*ck he is gonna pull in our troops. What is he waiting for?! more deaths?!" - that would represent the opinion of some 80-90%.

Well, I saw plenty of reasonable opinions in Russian forums and I saw plenty of cheering for direct local confrontation with US and NATO. Is it possible that some Russians were simply afraid of another Chechnya scenario with many deaths? Is it possible that after they saw that Georgian responce was weak at best they switched to "disarm and punish Georgia for the war before leaving" mood?
 
 

And I can say u that if he didnt do that - not only he would lose very large part of his support, but the people of Northern Caucasus would certailnly turn away from Russia. Such decision (not to protect SO) would be a catastrophe for himself personally, and for Russia too. So, he had no choice, thats all. And no, there wasnt intention to show "how f....g strong Russia is. And that Georgia wont even think about joining NATO." Actually, it has absolutely nothing with Georgia joining NATO.

Well, I can imagine that Russian government probably prefers pro-Russian government in Georgia... as well as breaking S Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia. I can imagine they hoped for anti-Saakashvili revolt after the war began and it did not happen. I can imagine them wanting to discourage countries from joining NATO when I see the way Russians react to NATO getting closer to the border. Georgia was a perfect way to demonstrate that NATO and US is useless, because they knew that US will not get into stupid war with Russia to support unautharized military gamble of Saakashvili. 
 
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FlyingDutchman       9/1/2008 8:59:36 AM

I agree and disagree. Moscow does not need Poland's territory, but it probably needs Poland to prove to the Russian folks that West is evil and anti-Russian and they need to stick with the strong government that can protect them... Putin already said that Georgian war was probably organized by USA (nice!). Russian government can't find a better example than Poland: it's small and it's loudly anti-Russian, it's part of NATO and it's on the border, it hosts "aggressive" ABM system. Putin probably prays for Poland every day before he goes to bed. It's the perfect way to consolidate people around current Russian government.


Ukraine and Belarus is another matter. I can imagine some scenarios that involve Ukraine and Belarus. Pretext is easy to find - Ukraine has Crimea that historically did not belong to it at all. Eastern Ukraine leans toward Russia. There is a political instability in Ukraine that can be exploited. Belarus is almost helpless without Russia and can be absorbed into it under some circumstances... maybe if Russia threatens to cut oil and gas and forces Lukashenko to make some difficult desisions.


I agree with the remarks about Poland and the Ukraine. I can easily see Russia at least annexing the Eastern half.
 
But why Belarus? Isn't it already a puppet of Russia and fully dependent as you also wrote?
I doubt it's necessary, for now, to fully annex Belarus.
 
 
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