A sewer rat and a house rat are conversing, and the sewer rat asks the house rat:

 

"How come you live in warmth and comfort, get fed gorgeous food every day, have your fur all white and silky, while I live out here in the cold and wet, have mangy grey fur and fight for scraps that people throw away?"

 

The house rat looks at the sewer rat critically and says:

 

"I would say that you've got a P.R. problem."

Still, Russian invading force included some paramilitary elements, volunteers from Nort Ossetia. From the first hand experience I know that such elements are responsible for worst war crimes (Balkan Wars). Some atrocities are described in this article link .

I wonder why is that lesson so hard to learn ? Militias murder civilians and loot most of the time. Or, perhaps, they are deliberately sent there ? I don't think it serves any purpose to Russia. Russians are supposed to be "emotionally neutral" here, because neither Ossetians nor Georgians are related to Russians.

 

DG

 

The engineer tape arm bands are the mark of  Russian schrecklichkeit truppen.  The Chechens are ostensibly under the nominal control of GRU.  The South Ossetians, so far as I can tell, aren?t under anybody?s control, but their cadres are ex-KGB and Spetsnaz and are unlikely to do things Moscow disapproves of.  When they annoy the Russian Army they are dealt with, otherwise they plunder and rape with impunity.  The Cossacks appear to me to be intermixed with the South Ossetians.

 

The good order and discipline of the unconscripted kontrakniki in the regular Russian Army cannot help but be degraded through association with brigands. 

747 is over watter and the right inboard engine dies. Pilot say it's ok we'll be one hour late.

 

Inboard left engine dies. Pilot says it's ok we'll be three hours late.

 

Passenger say's, "I hope we don't lose another engine or we'll never make it down."

 

So, Chechen vet goes on to fight in Georgia and say's, "I hope we don't fight another war like this or we'll never make contact with the Germans again.

======================================================================

Russia has communicated that it is far more interested in being intimidating than helpful.  The maxim that is is better to be feared than loved assumes that you are in control and can stay there.  It is within the Russians power to do banking and arts and programing at world class levels and succeed in the world economy.  That option would require a real middle class with individual initiative two way social mobility.  Free press and apolitical education and courts also. 

 

So, instead organized crime (the other globalization), intelligence operations and political establishment become team intimidation.  Putin would rather rule in hell that serve.

=======================================================================

It's time to plant dragons teeth.  Artty scatterable anti-tank mines work better(and make a nice surprise) but the press pic of  rows of anti-tank obstacles would encourage the right national mood.  Self destruct charges in the road system slow things down too. It was a road and now it is an anti-tank ditch.  Again surprise and counter mobility.

That's my point, Russians still have a lot to learn in the art of playing the Information War game, and spinning the world media to their advantage. Right now I'd rate them down there with Israel... not a good position to be in.

 

Although by and large they did the right things, mistakes were made during this campaign, such as, as you've mentioned, allowing paramilitaries in. The way they could have done it better in my opinion, would have been:

1.) Having all their soldiers wear blue UN hats on television. Heck, they were there under a UN mandate, might as well advertise the fact!

2.) Not allowing "volunteers" in, as you've said, to tarnish their reputation.

3.) Moving more television cameras into Gori, along with their humanitarian aid. They've pulled that one off reasonably well, but they could have done better still. 

4.) Got more pictures of dead children and ruined buildings and sent them to Western news agencies. It still puzzles me why they haven't been flogging that angle to the full. 

5.) Interviewed pro-Russian Georgians for the Western television.

 

However, by and large, they did succeed in demolishing Georgia's military, utterly disrupting their advance, and all they have to do now is withdraw (slowly, eventually), and watch the already unpopular regime crumble to dust. As soon as Russian troops are out of there, Saakashvilli will have some serious explaining to do to his electorate.

 

Plus they managed to score some points. The incident with the South Ossetian girl on FOX News was simply brilliant. I bet most viewers didn't even ask themselves how a 12 year old girl from some village in the middle of nowhere, could speak such excellent, professional English.

 

So, live and learn, Russia, live and learn. Medvedev has done brilliantly on the domestic front, continuing in the proud tradition of Putin, who played domestic populism to get himself an 81% approval rating. Now all they have to do is really rub it in to the West by withdrawing from Georgia. Medevdev sure has a good mentor. 

 

I am amazed to read such a statement on Strategypage.

 

France never left NATO, and has always been a full-fledged member of the North Atlantic Council. The ca 3000 French troops deployed in Afghanistan were sent to comply with French NATO obligations.

 

What France isn't part of today is the integrated command structure, ie France does not assign troops to SHAPE on a permanent basis, does not get SHAPE  command slots and does not grant basing rights to NATO members on its territory on a permanent basis.

 

It does not mean that France is not a NATO member.

 

 Just for the record, the North Atlantic Treaty requires signatory parties to treat attacks upon a single member's territory as an attack on their own territory, which is not a light commitment.

 

Such a gross misunderstanding of such a basic element of current international diplomacy on Strategypage is disturbing to say the least.

Lance Blade, I've seen your response, but I don't fully agree. If Russia does not manage to install their man in Tbilisi, they could have stayed at home as well. If Tbilisi remains defiant, Russia has only managed to send the message to their neighbors: "we are still here, if you don't comply we are going to give you some hard times". That's why they drag their feet on the way out.Territories of Ossetia and Abkhazia matter a little, except to the Georgians. Dragging feet and those "checkpoints" mentioned in agreement are just face saving.

 

That is in accord with Russian diplomatic message, repeated twice. The message says that West has to choose between the relations with Tbilisi and relation with Moscow. Without the change of government they accomplished a little.

 

Turkey is putting every effort in keeping equal distance to both sides. That made Russian position position even stronger and Georgian weaker,  but won't help Turkish efforts to join EU.

DG

I wonder what would have been the fate of those two patches of territory (South Ossetia and Abkhazia) if Eduard Shevardnadze, who is Georgian, was not there at the end of Soviet Union. He was a powerful and well connected at that time. Has he influenced the status of those provinces ?

What do you think ?

 

DG

 

Is there any chance that Putin was hoping the US would become distracted enough by the invasion of Georgia that he could invade Poland perhaps through Kaliningrad Oblast?

Will Russia's aggression wind up helping McCain by emphasizing Obama's lack of credentials, general detachment, Eurosophistism, etc?

 

I still believe Benin in 2004 sealed Kerry's fate.

That's my point. Russian leaders are not completely stupid, they're not going to invade Tbilisi and install a puppet government because that is simply not gonna work in the long run. Opposition parties rallied behind Saakashvilli during the war. When your country is in danger, you put aside your differences and oppose the aggressor united.

 

What they have done is critically weaken Saakashvilli's [already weak] party. Saakashvilli had 3 things going for him in his reelection. He wanted to take Georgia into NATO. He wanted to make Georgian military into a capable fighting force. And he wanted to retake, by force, Abhasia and South Ossetia. Now, after this war, the chances of Georgia joining NATO will be slimmer than ever (because France and Germany will be able to say "we told you so"), the Georgian army is seen as incapable of performing its duties and is probably much worse for wear than before it (how many Georgian tanks and warplanes did the Russians kill? How much time and money will be needed to replace these systems?), and their chances of retaking Abhazia and South Ossetia are now very slim indeed.

 

Despite all the failings, Georgia is still a democratic country. Once the immediate Russian threat passes, the opposition will most likely tear Saakashvilli apart. The big question for the Russian leadership is, is Georgian "mouse that roared" nationalism also on the way out, or will another Saakashvilli take over? The Georgian people feel like they've been betrayed by the West. Some actually expected American warplanes in Georgian skies within days if not hours. They were seriously let down, and thus it was seen that the West could not be relied upon. All Russia has to do now is play up the humanitarian aid to Gori citizens to show the Georgians that they do care, then offer cooperation with a politician who's not Saakashvilli, which they've also done. Georgians will see that the Russians can be reasoned with and with any luck, a less nationalistic leader will emerge.

 

Saakashvilli has made a complete fool of himself on world television. He wasn't consistent. First he called the Russians "barbarians" then his stance was "let's make peace for the future generations and can't we just talk about this?" Thus he lost points in the Fuck Russia camp (Ukraine, Poland, Georgia, Baltic states). Also the Fuck Russia camp relies on Ukraine. In the wake of the war, the political situation in Ukraine became seriously unstable, as Yushenko and Timoshenko finally went into open warfare. The coalition they'd created to keep the most popular single party (led by pro-Russian Yanukovich) from power, is history. Most Ukrainians, according to opinion polls, are thoroughly disgusted with all the 3 populist politicians. Elections are coming up soon, and a demand is there for a new leader who won't be corrupt like Yanukovich, or an idiot like Yushenko or Timoshenko. If that leader emerges and turns out to be pro-Russian, the Fuck Russia camp is in serious trouble.

 

Also, responding to another poster, why would Russia want to invade Poland? 

As Hugo pointed out in a few of his posts, the Germans are pushing heavily now for admitting Georgia into NATO.

 

That is something I don't understand at all. If Georgia was allowed to NATO then maybe. maybe, this situation could have been avoided. If Georgia was allowed to NATO now, that means conflict (war) with Russia, since Russia is compromising Georgian territorial integrity. It was something Germany was afraid of and now they are pushing it. Beats me, a complete mystery .....

 

DG

Lance Blade, you've got some points, but departure of Saakashvili does not mean that successor will be pro Russian. I've done a very brief research, and there doesn't seem to exist any major pro Russian party in Georgia. I doubt that there will be any in near future. So, Russia must install their man by force, there is no other way. I am not sure that they are going to be able to do that.

 

Considering East Europe, I live there (not anywhere near Georgia), this is my experience: sooner or later some "usual" politician will be elected. Someone who will be more willing to do the job, and less try to be a hero. Someone who will be corrupt a little, lie a little, who is not quite competent, but who will be able to accomplish some goals. The opposition is not going to be much different. That is the best any country can expect these days, everything else is much worse.

 

Considering "Fuck Russia Camp", they have got some points. Some people are trying to relativize things. Western democracy and Communism are just not the same thing in different package. I would never go back to old days. I don't say that everything that comes from the West is perfect, but I can can tell you this from my experience. If something good happened to come around, it came from the West. Whatever came from the East, was nothing but rotten sh*t.

Waht am believe is that more moderate Georgian politician is not going to have stance towards  Russia that much differs from the one Saakashvili has. Such politician might probably keep the tone down. He/she could be more realistic considering NATO involvement. He/she might had worked things out with Ossetians and Abkhazians, but now it's too late for that, I guess. But he/she would not be the friend of Russia.

 

One may say that West let the Georgia down, but consider this. There are few allies that are closer to USA than Israel, and I don't see Israelis expecting Americans to die in their wars.

 

DG