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Subject:
The War With China
SYSOP
2/21/2008 5:54:28 AM
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ISRAEL: The Fire Next Time
BALKANS: Dealing With Russia
WEAPONS: Elephant Gun For Snipers
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LEADERSHIP: Iran Cracks Down On Hezbollah
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MURPHY'S LAW: The Curse Of The Cache
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LEADERSHIP: Chinese Victory At Sea
MURPHY'S LAW: Mighty MiG Fades Away
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WEAPONS: Second Son Of Ma Deuce Stumbles
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sclayton
Stealing?
2/21/2008 4:54:29 PM
The StrategyPage writers throw the word "stolen" around a lot
when it comes to China.
Acquiring a product, particularly a high tech product, operating
it to determine exactly how it works and then taking it
apart and copying it is the time tested technique known
as reverse engineering.
All competent industrial and high technology companies worldwide
use reverse engineering to one degree or another. It is a common sense
way to know what your competition is doing, get a good guess as to
how they are doing it, and to make sure your own products are
state of the art - or at least competitive.
Example: When Ford built its first minivans, its team of designers
openly stated that they have bought Dodge Caravans and studied
every aspect of them including taking them apart and evaluating the
details down to the smallest component. This was seen as a smart
move by a respected competitor tying to get into a market dominated
by a strong market leader.
Reverse engineering is both legal and common.
Quote
Reply
Lance Blade
hate to slide into politics but...
2/21/2008 7:16:24 PM
"Those who make a lot of noise in opposition either flee the country, or get prosecuted on some trumped up charge. "
What opposition? The United Russia party won by a landslide - 53% if I'm not mistaken. What real "opposition" does the party have? To the average Joe Russian it's a choice between a.) a party that's provided 8 years of consistent economic growth, b.) communists (nice, but been there, done that, wanna move forward not back), c.) the ultranationalist liberal democrats (who are just gonna breed Russia more enemies), d.) parties that have not really had a chance to prove themselves so, while having decent agendas, are more of a risk than going with the centrist United Russia. At least with them you know what to expect. There are yet other parties, like A Just Russia, who are opposition in name only and ally with United Russia.
I hear lots of talk on "totalitarianism", yet have yet to hear of a viable alternative that would present a real challenge to the current administration. Yabloko's often quoted as "opposition". I go on Yabloko.ru, the front page is in English! I mean, what? Which audience are they aiming at? I tried looking round to find their proposed policies. I couldn't! Maybe I'm greatly mistaken but right now I see this "opposition" as having no clear goals, no radical new solutions to problems, and existing only to critisize the current administration. Most critisism for Putin & co. actually comes from the West. (Berezovsky & co.'s doing, perhaps?) Meanwhile, for very real reasons, he's popular at home. Ironic, isn't it?
It would be very interesting to see how Western perception of Russia will evolve if/when Dmitry Medvedev comes to power. Whatever will Berezovsky & co. think up now to chuck at the new guy?
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Reply
00_Chem_AJB
2/21/2008 8:26:54 PM
Porbably on the lines of "he is Putin's puppet, nothing more." Lance I think what they are getting at is this stuff happens to oposition leaders, well potential leaders before they can organise any real oposition.
Quote
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Lance Blade
2/21/2008 8:47:51 PM
Porbably on the lines of "he is Putin's puppet, nothing more." Lance I think what they are getting at is this stuff happens to oposition leaders, well potential leaders before they can organise any real oposition.
To be fair I only read good things about Medvedev in Western media. It's amusing how confused the media seems to be about why this apparently "autoritarian" Putin supports a supposedly freedom-loving Medvedev. If I ignore the larger picture, I can understand the media's confusion. What the media doesn't see is an alternative reality - where Yeltsin-Putin-Medvedev are a natural continuation of the same basic idea. Yeltsin struggled to define the legislature of the new federation. Putin used the model hammered out by Yeltsin to achieve economic growth and drive down corruption. Paving the way for a liberal to add democracy to the stability that he'd created. Three very different leaders, three stages in history of what was essentially a brand new nation after 1991.
Opposition is about ideas rather than numbers. What can the opposition possibly say against a 6.7% average annual GDP growth over 8 years? They play the autoritarian card, but that's about it. Until United Russia screws up badly, I see little chance of another party coming to the fore. Opposition parties, in my opinion, would benefit greatly from having clear objectives of their own, rather than merely existing to critisize the current goverment. The opposition in Russia seems to lack that (with the exception of communists and ultranationalists). Parallels can be drawn to the last US election and the Bush-Kerry standoff. In the end, Bush won largely because Kerry's main policy had been "I'm not Bush". That's despite Bush being unpopular by then.
Having their website front page in the language of the country they're trying to win office in would help too, in my opinion.
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JT
call it whatever you want
2/21/2008 9:35:29 PM
It's still wrong. Hey sclayton where exactly can I go and buy a few AMRAAMs or maybe some an AEGIS radar system or say a nuclear reactor for a Virginia submarine? Buying something widely available to all people on the open market and taking it apart to see how it works is one thing. Taking information or paying people to take information about classified defense systems is well, treason if you are a US citizen, and espionage if you are Chinese. Hardly just "reverse engineering". Please don't play the moral equivalence game with commies.
Quote
Reply
Herald12345
2/22/2008 3:09:44 PM
The StrategyPage writers throw the word "stolen" around a lot
when it comes to China.
Acquiring a product, particularly a high tech product, operating
it to determine exactly how it works and then taking it
apart and copying it is the time tested technique known
as reverse engineering.
All competent industrial and high technology companies worldwide
use reverse engineering to one degree or another. It is a common sense
way to know what your competition is doing, get a good guess as to
how they are doing it, and to make sure your own products are
state of the art - or at least competitive.
Example: When Ford built its first minivans, its team of designers
openly stated that they have bought Dodge Caravans and studied
every aspect of them including taking them apart and evaluating the
details down to the smallest component. This was seen as a smart
move by a respected competitor tying to get into a market dominated
by a strong market leader.
Reverse engineering is both legal and common.
Taking proprietary knowledge through treachery such as software code or HOW to build jet engines or radars ore rockets is not reverse engineering. Its theft.
Copycatting is not reverse engineering, its theft.
The PRC bandits are thieves.
When the Russians stole a piece of US gear they engineered it out of their tech tree to the best of their ability and IMPROVED it. Its a long tortured road from Sidewinder to Atoll to an R-73, but the R-73 is a RUSSIAN rocket.
The PL-12 has more than a passing resemblance to the R-77 and Derby than it has to anything genuinely and originally Chinese.
Herald
Quote
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afrc
2/23/2008 12:38:18 PM
What opposition? The United Russia party won by a landslide - 53% if I'm not mistaken. What real "opposition" does the party have? To the average Joe Russian it's a choice between a.) a party that's provided 8 years of consistent economic growth, b.) communists (nice, but been there, done that, wanna move forward not back), c.) the ultranationalist liberal democrats (who are just gonna breed Russia more enemies), d.) parties that have not really had a chance to prove themselves so, while having decent agendas, are more of a risk than going with the centrist United Russia. At least with them you know what to expect. There are yet other parties, like A Just Russia, who are opposition in name only and ally with United Russia.
National-socialist party also won in Germany once. What does it say about anything, except people wanting to get out of depression, have stability, have national unity, have revenge for humiliating WWI peace... and here comes Adolph that promises it all? Situation not that dissimilar now, but of course I do NOT compare Putin to Hitler on ideas, only on surface.
Just because a party does not have huge opposition, does not mean that it does not have opposition at all. As I understand it, people there have problems distinguishing parties, but in this case people voted not for United Russia, but for Putin, who said that he will be the party head. People voted for the person they belied saved and continues to save Russia. But this is artificial notion. First of all many critics of the president were silenced. Independent TV station closed. Even comedy puppet show that made fun of all politicians (including Putin) was closed, primarily because they refused to obey the order to remove/change their moppet Putin. And there was constant propaganda of Putin of TV - you could not turn the TV on without seeing Putin in the news every 5 minutes (my parents have Russian TV via dish). Putin played on Russian nationalism to display himself as a person that throws challenge at the West... West that (in many people's minds) wants to destroy Russia, West that made Russia lose Cold War, broke USSR apart and separated Slav brothers (Ukraine and Belarus), humiliated the mighty Russian empire, West that getting closer to the Russian border with some evil purpose, West that bombed and destroyed brotherly Yugoslavia, and so on and so on. Putin plays the cards right and stirs up emotions. And finally there were directives to organize support meetings from schools, factories. Most people are easy to fool and in the vacuum of visible opposing opinions it really does seem as Putin is the only savior of Russia. But I sincerely do not think this. Russian ambitions are kept afloat by high oil prices... and I think that Russia is one of the reasons. It keeps feeding and supporting Iranian nuclear ambitions to drive the fear and thus oil price, as well as create weapon markets for Russia. Other than this, Russia failed in creating a serious manufacturing and technological base for itself to play a role in global economy outside oil (and whatever else it has) industry. That's why Russians are pissed - they can't play the role in the world (and they don't want to think that it is their fault) except by being an obstacle and they see it as the West's fault. West is the one that keeps the Russia down on its knees, and finally there is someone who spits in West's face, rather than being a clown like Yeltsin, and that's why they voted for one party (read voted for Putin the Savior of the Empire).
I hear lots of talk on "totalitarianism", yet have yet to hear of a viable alternative that would present a real challenge to the current administration. Yabloko's often quoted as "opposition". I go on Yabloko.ru, the front page is in English! I mean, what? Which audience are they aiming at? I tried looking round to find their proposed policies. I couldn't! Maybe I'm greatly mistaken but right now I see this "opposition" as having no clear goals, no radical new solutions to problems, and existing only to critisize the current administration. Most critisism for Putin & co. actually comes from the West. (Berezovsky & co.'s doing, perhaps?) Meanwhile, for very real reasons, he's popular at home. Ironic, isn't it?
Viable opposition will not be allowed to develop. There are many parties and it is fine according to "divide and rule" principle. People's opinion is broken up in small pieces, their attention is out of focus, so the majority of people will vote for one person they know and trust. It is easy to create an image, a person to vote for in this atmosphere. And here comes Putin and his party. Ironic, isn't it?
It would be very interesting to see how Western perception of Russia will evolve if/when Dmitry Medvedev comes to power. Whatever will Berezovsky & co. think up now to chuck at the new guy?
I don't know why you think that Berezovsky matters. There are many people writing articles in papers and magazines here (good and bad) and they sway opinions. Liberals will sway one way and conservatives will sway another way. And it does not matter who is in power in Russia. It only matters if he is not going against country's interests (US for example) and this is how state administration will view and judge him.
Opposition is about ideas rather than numbers. What can the opposition possibly say against a 6.7% average annual GDP growth over 8 years?
Growth fed by rising oil prices... over the last 8 years LOL. People just want prosperity and stability and Putin promises both. The question is whether he is actually doing something real to help Russia in the long run, beyond oil, Iran, and confrontation with the West.
PS: China will steal anything that's not bolted to the floor... including anything from Russia. China has it's own national ambitions and no one better get in their way.
Quote
Reply
Lance Blade
2/24/2008 7:46:41 AM
What opposition? The
United Russia party won by a landslide - 53% if I'm not mistaken. What
real "opposition" does the party have? To the average Joe Russian it's
a choice between a.) a party that's provided 8 years of consistent
economic growth, b.) communists (nice, but been there, done that, wanna
move forward not back), c.) the ultranationalist liberal democrats (who
are just gonna breed Russia more enemies), d.) parties that have not
really had a chance to prove themselves so, while having decent
agendas, are more of a risk than going with the centrist United Russia.
At least with them you know what to expect. There are yet other
parties, like A Just Russia, who are opposition in name only and ally
with United Russia.
National-socialist party also won in Germany once. What does it say about anything, except people wanting to get out of depression, have stability, have national unity, have revenge for humiliating WWI peace... and here comes Adolph that promises it all? Situation not that dissimilar now, but of course I do NOT compare Putin to Hitler on ideas, only on surface.
But Putin has kept most of his promises, and he didn't go to war to do it. That's the difference between him and Hitler. Or between fashism and democracy. Nothing wrong with fashism as a system, apart from the fact that it needs enemies to keep itself going. United Russia didn't follow that route.
Just because a party does not have huge opposition, does not mean that it does not have opposition at all. As I understand it, people there have problems distinguishing parties, but in this case people voted not for United Russia, but for Putin, who said that he will be the party head. People voted for the person they belied saved and continues to save Russia. But this is artificial notion. First of all many critics of the president were silenced. Independent TV station closed. Even comedy puppet show that made fun of all politicians (including Putin) was closed, primarily because they refused to obey the order to remove/change their moppet Putin. And there was constant propaganda of Putin of TV - you could not turn the TV on without seeing Putin in the news every 5 minutes (my parents have Russian TV via dish). Putin played on Russian nationalism to display himself as a person that throws challenge at the West... West that (in many people's minds) wants to destroy Russia, West that made Russia lose Cold War, broke USSR apart and separated Slav brothers (Ukraine and Belarus), humiliated the mighty Russian empire, West that getting closer to the Russian border with some evil purpose, West that bombed and destroyed brotherly Yugoslavia, and so on and so on. Putin plays the cards right and stirs up emotions. And finally there were directives to organize support meetings from schools, factories. Most people are easy to fool and in the vacuum of visible opposing opinions it really does seem as Putin is the only savior of Russia. But I sincerely do not think this. Russian ambitions are kept afloat by high oil prices... and I think that Russia is one of the reasons. It keeps feeding and supporting Iranian nuclear ambitions to drive the fear and thus oil price, as well as create weapon markets for Russia. Other than this, Russia failed in creating a serious manufacturing and technological base for itself to play a role in global economy outside oil (and whatever else it has) industry. That's why Russians are pissed - they can't play the role in the world (and they don't want to think that it is their fault) except by being an obstacle and they see it as the West's fault. West is the one that keeps the Russia down on its knees, and finally there is someone who spits in West's face, rather than being a clown like Yeltsin, and that's why they voted for one party (read voted for Putin the Savior of the Empire).
Oil itself doesn't guarantee prosperity. Look at Venezuela, Angola, Chad, Iran, Nigeria, Syria... What Russia's doing (under supervision of people like Medvedev, I believe, which is why he's quite popular), is using oil money to build up infrastructure and diversify, as well as redevelop high-tech industries so that it doesn't have to keep selling oil all the time. Apparently, Russia's weapons sales topped everyone else's last year. And, well, Kaspersky, anyone? And need I remind who ferried astronauts to the ISS for 3 years when the Shuttle fleet was grounded? So Russia is competitive in some industries. The problem is, after the collapse of the USSR everything fell into disarray, professionals left en masse and the new Russian Federation now has to rebuild many things from scratch. Maybe the current image building of a new Russia is to encourage those professionals that left, to come back. I'm half tempted to come back to Russia for a while after completing my degree, so I can't say it's not working :-p
I agree with you that United Russia floods the media with its image, it's seen everywhere! But as for actively silencing opposition, well, I wouldn't say that, given the constant antics of Lib Dem leader Yavlinsky for example. This guy I believe to be more dangerous than Putin or United Russia. Not least because he has a significant following - people "pissed off with the West" as you put it. Him coming to power would be my worst nightmare. Fortunately, most Russians realise ultranationalism isn't a great idea.
I hear lots of talk on
"totalitarianism", yet have yet to hear of a viable alternative that
would present a real challenge to the current administration. Yabloko's
often quoted as "opposition". I go on Yabloko.ru, the front page is in
English! I mean, what? Which audience are they aiming at? I tried
looking round to find their proposed policies. I couldn't! Maybe I'm
greatly mistaken but right now I see this "opposition" as having no
clear goals, no radical new solutions to problems, and existing only to
critisize the current administration. Most critisism for Putin &
co. actually comes from the West. (Berezovsky & co.'s doing,
perhaps?) Meanwhile, for very real reasons, he's popular at home.
Ironic, isn't it?
Viable opposition will not be allowed to develop. There are many parties and it is fine according to "divide and rule" principle. People's opinion is broken up in small pieces, their attention is out of focus, so the majority of people will vote for one person they know and trust. It is easy to create an image, a person to vote for in this atmosphere. And here comes Putin and his party. Ironic, isn't it?
Yes, and that happens all the time. I'm not sure what point you're making here. But if you want "viable opposition", again, you've got communists with support of 25% of the population, and in third place, the Lib Dem ultranationalists. Opposition is there, and it is significant. It's just not the parties that the West wants to see, so they're rarely mentioned.
It would be very
interesting to see how Western perception of Russia will evolve if/when
Dmitry Medvedev comes to power. Whatever will Berezovsky & co.
think up now to chuck at the new guy?
I don't know why you think that Berezovsky matters. There are many people writing articles in papers and magazines here (good and bad) and they sway opinions. Liberals will sway one way and conservatives will sway another way. And it does not matter who is in power in Russia. It only matters if he is not going against country's interests (US for example) and this is how state administration will view and judge him.
Berezovsky matters because, since fleeing to England with his money aquired by dubious means during the chaos of the 90's, he's done nothing but actively try to bring down the Putin administration. And for good reason, as Putin moved against the oligarchs, instantly making himself many powerful enemies. There are interesting stories often popping up in British tabloids about how Putin is the second Stalin etc etc. It's worth remembering that Berezovsky was a media magnate in Russia in the 90s. I believe he's doing the same thing in Britain now. There are also reports, partially confirmed by him, that he helped finance the Orange Revolution in Ukraine. He's pretty powerful with his millions and his determination.
Opposition is about ideas
rather than numbers. What can the opposition possibly say against a
6.7% average annual GDP growth over 8 years?
Growth fed by rising oil prices... over the last 8 years LOL. People just want prosperity and stability and Putin promises both. The question is whether he is actually doing something real to help Russia in the long run, beyond oil, Iran, and confrontation with the West.
Again, there are many nations in the world that have oil but no wealth or economic growth. Look at Venezuela or Nigeria, for example. For them, oil is a mixed blessing. I agree that Putin has had an easy run economically because he's been sailing on the wind that is high oil prices. But, I'll repeat, his party has been
investing
the oil money into the Russian economy, with the result that now we have new roads, new schools, new tech parks, new equipment, and most importantly, new personel. The results of this won't be apparent right now, but in several years' time they will make a big difference.
And Putin has delivered prosperity and stability. I've spoken to real people, friends and relatives inside Russia, and it's blatantly evident. That's why he's popular, because he actually made good on his promises, which is quite rare in politics.
PS: China will steal anything that's not bolted to the floor... including anything from Russia. China has it's own national ambitions and no one better get in their way.
Agreed. It's a revolutionary's way of thinking, the USSR used to do the same thing before them. Basically anything goes if it's for the benefit of the revolution.
Quote
Reply
sclayton
Reverse engineering and theft
2/25/2008 4:49:24 PM
Wow, this brings out the moralistic streak. The gist of the article is
China is at war with Russia. The example given is the Russians
sold the Chinese SU-27 s and the Chinese copied them and built
a version of their own. For some reason people think this is "bad."
A matter of right and wrong.
I remember back in the cold war we spent something like a billion
dollars building the Glomar Explorer and using it to raise a sunken
Soviet sub - so our best engineers could take it apart and study it.
Presumably if we found anything interesting, we would have copied it.
It was all super secret, mining magnesium nodules cover story, etc.
The Glomar then spent about 20 years as a $500Million rusting channel
marker in Suisun Bay. It was "right" for us because we were at war and
they "lost" their sub and we had the technology to find it.
The tenor of Strategy Page is that the US is "at war" with China and
Congress just doesn't know it yet., and that Russia is also engaged
in a long range war with China. In war you do what you can to get
hold of the other side's weapons and try to make sure you have
something as good, or if you can't copy it at least develop counter measures.
That is normally seen as "right" and "good." China is considerably,
maybe decades, behind the US and Russia in most aspects of military
technology and is playing catch up in time of war. If the Russians
sell them the technology, the Russians should not complain that the
Chinese take it apart. learn to service it themselves, learn to upgrade
it themselves, learn to defeat it, and then use it to learn to make
their own. Who do they think they sold it to, a bunch of
incompetents with no technical ability?
Saying "copycatting is theft" shows basic lack of understanding of how
business works in free market societies around the world. The US and
world computer industry has been built on companies reverse engineering
and copying IBM's technology. Linux is an entire industry built on
outright copying Unix feature by feature - reverse engineering
of software is legal under both US case law and EU statutory law. Much
of the pharmaceutical industry is built on straight out copying of drugs
that do not have patent protection. Patents are not God granted "rights."
they are simply government granted monopolies created by politicians
enacting statutory law - you could argue patents are a manifestation
of big government hindering free enterprise and perfect competition
by granting monopolies which restrict competition. Patents may provide
some government created protection from copying part of a product for a
few years, but generally once you put product on the market, it is
more or less fair game for anyone else to study it and use what they
learn to build their own as long as they do not infringe what ever
intellectual property "rights" a government may have granted.
And yes, reverse engineering of software is legal under both
US case law and EU statutory law.
Quote
Reply
Herald12345
You really want to go down this road?
2/25/2008 5:21:37 PM
Proprietary rights law is quite complex, but at its heart is the concept that stealing another's ideas and processes is THEFT.
That is not just patent law, it is TREATY LAW which the PRC bandits who signed the treaty break wholesale and retail.
Or do you think the PRC bandits have the right to steal Norwegian ocean platform technology or US IT technology or German automotive technology or ANY French technology they can get their hands on?
Not being able to originate tech of their own design, even in their incompetent copycatting, why should not their wholesale theft be called what it is?
STEALING.
Herald
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Reply
afrc
2/25/2008 9:29:33 PM
Wow, this brings out the moralistic streak. The gist of the article is China is at war with Russia. The example given is the Russians sold the Chinese SU-27 s and the Chinese copied them and built a version of their own. For some reason people think this is "bad." A matter of right and wrong.
Actually Russians sold them license to BUILD Su-27 planes, so it is clean. Interestingly after a few years Russians admitted that build quality of Chinese planes was as good or better than their own LOL.
The tenor of Strategy Page is that the US is "at war" with China and Congress just doesn't know it yet., and that Russia is also engaged in a long range war with China. In war you do what you can to get hold of the other side's weapons and try to make sure you have something as good, or if you can't copy it at least develop counter measures. That is normally seen as "right" and "good." China is considerably, maybe decades, behind the US and Russia in most aspects of military
technology and is playing catch up in time of war. If the Russians sell them the technology, the Russians should not complain that the Chinese take it apart. learn to service it themselves, learn to upgrade it themselves, learn to defeat it, and then use it to learn to make their own. Who do they think they sold it to, a bunch of incompetents with no technical ability?
I don't see a Cold War between Russia and China yet, maybe just weapons market war. Perhaps the main Russian complaint is that China steals technology and sell it and takes away from Russian profits. Well, maybe Russia should not sell weapons to them. I wonder if they signed a mutual copyright agreement because without
I remember back in the cold war we spent something like a billion dollars building the Glomar Explorer and using it to raise a sunken Soviet sub - so our best engineers could take it apart and study it. Presumably if we found anything interesting, we would have copied it. It was all super secret, mining magnesium nodules cover story, etc. The Glomar then spent about 20 years as a $500Million rusting channel marker in Suisun Bay. It was "right" for us because we were at war and they "lost" their sub and we had the technology to find it.
Question is... was the technological theft covered by copyright laws? Was the agreement signed by both countries? I don't think so. It is also one thing to send spies into another country and another to reverse-engineer weapon systems that country acquired through back channels. During Cold War USA bought Su-27 and S-300 from break away countries that needed money. I am not even sure if patents are filed for military technology (maybe for some civil application side of the military research), so the theft might be totally legal here.
Patents may provide some government created protection from copying part of a product for a few years, but generally once you put product on the market, it is more or less fair game for anyone else to study it and use what they learn to build their own as long as they do not infringe what ever intellectual property "rights" a government may have granted.
And yes, reverse engineering of software is legal under both US case law and EU statutory law.
I am not sure if it is legal to copy the whole product and sell it as their own. Companies get sued for it and they often win. Do you remember the recent Blackberry suit?
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displacedjim
2/25/2008 11:11:05 P