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Subject: Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years
PunjabiSikhWarrior    3/2/2006 4:25:55 AM
Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years By Meredith Buel Washington 28 February 2006 Buel report (Real Audio) - Download 355k Listen to Buel report (Real Audio) A leading specialist on ethnic minorities in the Russian Federation says within the next several decades Russia will become a country with a Muslim majority. Paul Goble, a university professor and senior research associate currently based in Estonia, spoke Tuesday at the Washington headquarters of Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty. For 25 years Paul Goble worked for the U.S. government as an expert on minorities in the former Soviet Union. He has been closely tracking what he describes as a huge demographic shift in Russia, a shift he says will have a major impact on the nation's relations with western countries. "Within most of our lifetimes the Russian Federation, assuming it stays within current borders, will be a Muslim country," he said. "That is it will have a Muslim majority and even before that the growing number of people of Muslim background in Russia will have a profound impact on Russian foreign policy. The assumption in Western Europe or the United States that Moscow is part of the European concert of powers is no longer valid." Goble, currently the Vice Dean of Social Sciences and Humanities at Concordia-Audentes University in Tallinn, Estonia, says when the Soviet Union collapsed, most western countries looked at influencing Russia from a European perspective. He says, however, Muslim countries viewed the opportunity for migration and the spread of Islam from the Caucuses or the newly created states in Central Asia. "The Muslim growth rate, since 1989, is between 40 and 50 percent, depending on ethnic groups," he said. "Most of that is in the Caucuses or from immigration from Central Asia or Azerbaijan." Man prays in a Moscow mosque (2005 file photo) Goble says in 1991 there were about 300 mosques in Russia. Today there are at least 8,000. He says about half of those were built with money donated from abroad, much of it from Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Goble says the number of Russians going on the Hajj, or pilgrimage to Mecca each year, has jumped from 40 in 1991 to 13,500 last year. He says there were no Islamic religious schools in Russia 15 years ago. Today, Goble says, there are between 50 and 60 teaching as many as 50,000 students. He says the growing influence of Islam in Russia has led to mounting discrimination. "At the popular level, prejudice against Muslims is way up," he said. "It is perceived that prejudice against Muslims is acceptable, it is something you won't get in big trouble for." Goble says if the Russian government supports a hostile policy toward Islam and the continued suppression of Islamic militants in the troubled republic of Chechnya, the Muslims he predicts could come to power in Moscow will be, as he puts it, "anti-western, radical and dangerous." Goble says, however, if there is an open dialog with moderate Muslims and an isolation of the small percentage of Islamic radicals, a non-threatening government could emerge. In any case, Goble quotes one Russian commentator in Moscow as predicting that within the next several decades there will be a mosque on Red Square.
 
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Clausewitz    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/2/2006 10:06:24 AM
A mosque at the former red square is an exaggeration. The russians will never allow to be taken over by a muslim majority. Maybe they will gave some parts of the country away(the russian federation will disintegrate in the long run). But we will see civil war before before there will any chance for a muslum run country. The general russian fertility rate is 1, 27 women per woman. You need 2,1 per woman for a stable population. But non ethnic russians (like the caucasus muslims) are part of this data. Ethnic russians may have 0,8 kids per woman. So they are dying out qiuckly. And their jews are going to Isreal, the US and Germany. So many of their middle class educated people does either. They got a real problem. At the moment they do not feel the demographic problem because many russians in the asean republics recognize that they are not wanted down there. That's why they are going back to ancient Russia, the heartland. And many Aseris and other muslims even now are going to the rich russian citys, so everone feels that the cities are overcrowded. But rural Russia - the russian soul is a rural soul - is vanishing. Western Europe got a similar problem. I am telling my kids - like my sisters do with thier kids - to learn english and to spent a school year in the US. Maybe that's the last place the west - and christianity - will survive (and in Australia and New Zealand of cause).
 
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McDohl    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/6/2006 3:30:47 PM
I doubt there will be a civil war and the Russian Federation will disintigrate its as almost saying that the US will have a civil war between the Bush administration VS the Liberals and the country will be didvided into to two east liberal, west republican........
 
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Clausewitz    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/8/2006 10:32:16 AM
You can't compare the situations. Americans may differ politically. But most of them are very patriotic and identify themselves as Americans. Non ethnic Russians in the Russian Federation - mostly muslims - don't feel like Russians. They even dislike Russia. They will try to do it on their own if possible. Same problem for parts of Western Europe.
 
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FJV    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/8/2006 12:33:39 PM
Linear projections into the future are BS.
 
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McDohl    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/8/2006 12:56:28 PM
thank you, my point exactly
 
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VelocityVector    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/8/2006 8:12:59 PM
> Non ethnic Russians in the > Russian Federation - mostly > muslims - don't feel like > Russians. They even dislike > Russia. They will try to do it > on their own if possible. Concur. To quote from a movie line, ?The Go&^#&* plane has crashed into the mountain!? -- The Big Lebowsky (Cohen Bros.) The effects extend far beyond Russia. v^2
 
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PunjabiSikhWarrior    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/9/2006 6:51:57 AM
Your right it won;t be a linear growth of muslims it will be an exponential growth. With russian women being sold of to Americans and the others hardly producing babies while comparing to the muslims who are more family oriented and have larger families. Its amazing how much people underestimate the power of demographics, don't people understand that majority has power??? Perhaps white people in the west don't know what it feels like to be a minority??? Whats more surprising is the vast majority of people still believe islam is a religion of peace even with all islamic conflicts going on. I guess the only way people will learn is from their mistakes. America will be no exception there are already more muslims than jews in that country and with globalization there is a great decrease in pride in one's country.
 
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PunjabiSikhWarrior    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/9/2006 6:51:59 AM
Your right it won;t be a linear growth of muslims it will be an exponential growth. With russian women being sold of to Americans and the others hardly producing babies while comparing to the muslims who are more family oriented and have larger families. Its amazing how much people underestimate the power of demographics, don't people understand that majority has power??? Perhaps white people in the west don't know what it feels like to be a minority??? Whats more surprising is the vast majority of people still believe islam is a religion of peace even with all islamic conflicts going on. I guess the only way people will learn is from their mistakes. America will be no exception there are already more muslims than jews in that country and with globalization there is a great decrease in pride in one's country.
 
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PunjabiSikhWarrior    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    3/9/2006 6:57:03 AM
Your right it won;t be a linear growth of muslims it will be an exponential growth. With russian women being sold of to Americans and the others hardly producing babies while comparing to the muslims who are more family oriented and have larger families. Its amazing how much people underestimate the power of demographics, don't people understand that majority has power??? Perhaps white people in the west don't know what it feels like to be a minority??? Whats more surprising is the vast majority of people still believe islam is a religion of peace even with all islamic conflicts going on. I guess the only way people will learn is from their mistakes. America will be no exception there are already more muslims than jews in that country and with globalization there is a great decrease in pride in one's country.
 
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Roman    RE:Analyst Predicts Muslim Majority in Russia Within 30 Years    8/10/2006 10:06:18 PM
PunjabiSikhWarrior: I am aware of the dire demographic situation in Russia and of the differential fertility rates between ethnic Russians and the sizeable and fast-growing Muslim population of the country, which drags up the average for the country as a whole. However, despite being interested in the topic, nowhere have I been able to find an actual figure for the fertility rate of ethnic Russians, so if you could give me a source for your 0.8 children per woman figure, I would appreciate it a lot. Thanks!
 
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