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Subject: The Enemies Of ISIL Are Screwed By The News Cycle
SYSOP    10/30/2014 5:41:15 AM
 
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Robert Walther    Robert Walther   10/30/2014 10:12:55 AM
If the 'rebel' genocidal maniacs fight together long enough, Assad's 'governmental' genocidal maniacs will be destroyed. I think Assad's destruction was the most recent, official US goal. Better still the victorious 'rebel' maniacs will have more professional murderers dedicated to exterminating each other. Assuming that there are at least 25 of these lunatic cadres in the Syria/ISIL/Caliphate SMSA, any member of any group will have a 96% chance of killing a Satanic infidel anytime he crucifies and/or beheads a random neighbor or the odd passerby.
 
The set of options for these mutually homicidal gangs is effectively infinite. Twitter trending seems to point toward killing the new 'Caliphate' members as the next primary target of the more traditional Sunni/Shia death squads. Add to this the apparently growing numbers of foreign 'Caliphate' future martyrs, and the job of ID'ing these loonies will be made easier for the regional natives. These Western Caliphate volunteers who are not 'convinced' by their religious leaders to be ground zero for suicide bombs will be easier to target by US drones due to these 'jihadists' addiction to Facebook and cell phones. Who would have thought that 7th Century, morality-free, luddites would volunteer to be targeted by 21st century personal tech? Of course this tech is a tool of the great Satan, but is as subject to voluntary abstention as sex.
 
I still say that the internet should set up 'Fantasy Jihadist Leagues'. The media can help with PC acceptable names for extensive range of ignorant, sociopathic monsters. The economy of the Net and Fantasy League Sports, neither of which, I admit, do I understand, should allow huge sums of money to be bet on groups, battles, assassinations, road-side and school bombings, rapes of children. Crucifixions should be huge draw for fans! Side bets on degrees of perversion and horror, amount and splatter of blood. Survival times of victims could be played both ways. Good for slow, bad for quick or vice versa. Innocence and age of the justly murdered could affect odds and payouts. With luck the money generated would require the evil cadres to choose and use distinctive colors, as ISIL has done. Sadly, for the fans, everyone would have the same slogan...
 
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trenchsol       10/30/2014 4:34:08 PM
IS will collapse soon. They have too many enemies (everybody, more or less) and no economy worth mentioning to support war effort. What will happen next ?
 
Iraqi Shia will retaliate against Sunnis, creating yet another genocide in the region, and more bad blood. Iraqi Sunnis will rise again after couple of years under another flag, similar or different than this one.
 
If forced marriage, forged by Turkey, between Syrian Kurds and FSA persist, they could become serious fighting force. Remaining IS will join forces with Nusra Front. Assad & Hezbollah might find themselves squeezed between IS/Nusra and Kurds/FSA and, finally, collapse. While Nusra might be acceptable for FSA, IS is probably not. Kurds and international factors would reject them, too. So, there might be final face-off between Kurds/FSA and IS/Nusra.
 
 
 
 
 
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Nate Dog    trench   10/30/2014 9:12:39 PM
   Where did you get that from?
ISIS war reserves are pegged at over $3 Billion dollars.
Oil exports from captured fields are about 50,000 barrels a day, or: Iraqi oil industry officials estimate that ISIS raises more than $2 million a day form crude oil sails. 
Income stream of some $750 Million per annum.
Extortion/Kidnapping: 2 fold method, 1. Europeans (low volume high yield. Cowardly shortsighted Euros have so far handed ISIS an estimated $120 Million in 6 months for the safe release of their citizens. Notable exceptions being US and UK. 2. Local arabs, (high volume low yield). Familys are literally handing over every cent they have to secure the release of family members. Zero idea of income stream from this, but can't imagine its low, and its sure steady.
Tax. A number of the, Christians are being dispossessed of all they own or die. Shia are beheaded on sight, thats a lot of dead Shia who's property is now free for the taking, a man who no longer has his head certainly has no more need of his worldly possessions. We'll take that too.
Good old regular taxes. If you live under ISIS control, and currently millions of Iraqis and Syrians do, they pay taxes, and from what I'm reading, lots of them and get very little in the way of public services back for them. So theres another column of black in the ledger.
Donations. ISIS is unpopular in western media, but local Sunnis don't seem to dislike them as much as you think, I'm sure the ones under their thumb do, but the ultra wealthy Saudis and Qataris who aren't are loving the idea of Sunnis winning at something and are flooding ISIS with money. 
 
As i said, your statement isn't factual. ISIS is extremely solidly placed from a financial point of view. Don't see this changing any time soon. Expect ISIS to stay, most likely long after Assad is dead and new Iraqi govt goes the way of the dodo.
All eyes are on Iraq, maybe that's what ISIS wants. They're very good at attacking where their enemies aren't. Plus they're all of a sudden making a lot of truces in Syria. Maybe its Damascus thats next and not baghdad.
 
 
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trenchsol       10/31/2014 10:20:06 AM
Nate Dog, it does look like a lot of money, but I don't think it will last long. They have a state to run plus fighting a war on 2 fronts. All the income is from black markets, there will be an effort to shut it down. Also, they can't pay or receive money from abroad through banks. I bet they have to sell oil cheaper and buy everything expensive. What would be a year budget for a country as large as territory they hold, even without a war ?
 
At the moment they are not just acting as guerrilla movement, they are trying to run a state. I bet they will have to fall back to guerrilla soon, because it is much cheaper.
 
 
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ker       11/1/2014 3:17:48 AM
The Rise of ISIS, Frontline episode 613 is being rebrodcaste Wednesday November 5th on some PBS stations. YOu might want to whatch it.
 
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Nate Dog    Trench   11/1/2014 4:04:16 AM
They are selling oil cheaper, estimates are at 50% of market standard. The income estimate is based at that. In that part of the world theres no shortage of illicit business's that'll happily buy oil at that prices.
ISIS can run very thin. Al Quada was estimated to operate on a budget of some $30 Million per year in 2008. 

As to arms, as above, theres always arms dealers willing to deal with anyone, and so long as theres more than 1 theres competition and therefore prices reflect the market. Theres considerably more than 1! Some of them are even state players!
 
I fear ISIS isn't going anywhere in a hurry. Way too entrenched. Throw in rising Shia attrocities being committed against Sunni's  in the region coupled with endemic poverty, add a little success (massive understatement), and you've a near endless stream of willing recruits.
On the Shia side, again, countless cases of Sunni atrocities fuelling their endless supplies of recruits and you've got an increasing issue, not a decreasing one. 
 
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trenchsol       11/1/2014 6:36:26 AM
IS needs larger budget than Al Qaeda right now, because IS is running a state on the territory it holds. They need to worry about population and its basic needs on the territory they hold. Al Qaeda does not hold any significant territory, and population around them is taken care of by states of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
 
IS can run very thin, if they fall back to guerrilla style, but then their 'country' will collapse. That is what I am talking about.
 
I have seen this video, it illustrates how they organized life on occupied territories. It is not like normal state, but they still must take care of population and its basic needs. 
 
 
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