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Subject: We Have To Win This One Or We Are Screwed
SYSOP    7/29/2012 8:02:26 AM
 
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Bob Cortez       7/29/2012 8:43:02 AM
You want to see blood? Wait until the rebels win....
 
By historical standards we are not seeing any real trouble and we should let it ride. 
 
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Geezer       7/29/2012 11:43:40 AM
<i>"There is also fear that many rebel factions will begin fighting each other after the Assads are gone. Faction leaders in Turkey have been having a hard time agreeing on who will get what in post-Assad Syria. No one wants another civil war but the rhetoric is pointing in that direction."</i>
 
Before Assad Sr. took power, Syria was
From <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria">Wiki</a>:
<i>"Syrian politics from independence through the late 1960s were marked by upheaval. Between 1946 and 1956, Syria had 20 different cabinets and drafted four separate constitutions.
"</i>. What is often forgotten about strongmen like Saddam,the Assads, and Stroessner is that they are often imposing order on a rather fractured polity.After the Assads leave, Syria will revert to its previous chaotic, fractured state.
 
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trenchsol       7/29/2012 12:22:21 PM
Far as I understand, if the rebels were driven out of the cities of Damascus and Aleppo, it will be a setback, but not major one, because FSA (Free Syrian Army) has a grip on the countryside. As long as Assad & Co. do not control the cities, it is a disaster for them, in every possible way, psychological, economic, strategic.
 
So, loyalists stand to lose much more in these battles. Rebels just need to maintain their presence there.
 
The rebels will win. Then, Muslim Brotherhood will, probably, take over. They are already dominant force within FSA. Then...what ? Brotherhood was involved in some very nasty business since the days they were founded somewhere back in 1920. But, they can't be ignored, because they are on a roll these days, and I can't see how it can be reversed.
 
Anyway, with Syria gone, Iran can kiss goodbye their Persian Empire dreams.
 
DG
 
 
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Skylark    The MAD option   7/29/2012 5:58:49 PM
The likely collapse of the Assad regime, and the even more likely massacre of the Alawite minority makes me think that the rumors of chemical and biological weapons being moved out of storage are very true.  If the Assad regime finds themselves surrounded and out of options, they could use the threat of releasing the weapons to win safe passage out of Syria, or they might simply use the weapons to turn all of Damascus into a massive funeral pyre, deciding that taking their enemies with them in a Gotterdammerung style mass suicide, is preferable to giving themselves and their families over to rebels bent on revenge.  It doesn't take a lot of guys to open canisters of nerve gas or set off a few chemical warheads, and the rebels are certainly not prepared for such an assault, so it could get very ugly if the regime finally runs out of options.  If winning isn't an option anymore, and the Assad regime seems to be unwilling to negotiate a serious peace deal, then the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) option could become frighteningly real.
 
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HeavyD       8/1/2012 2:18:46 AM


You want to see blood? Wait until the rebels win....

 

By historical standards we are not seeing any real trouble and we should let it ride. 

Unfortunately Syria is not like Egypt, where the powerful and independent military kept stability largely intact.  Syria will bleed long after Assad flys off to a luxurious exile.
 
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