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Subject: Big Trouble From Syria ??
greytraveller    4/21/2003 5:46:40 PM
This link and article provided by GlobalSecurity.org link It would seem that both the US DOD and Department of State are actually very concerned about terror groups operating from Syria. This explains and justifies the harsh criticism the US has levelled at Syria for the past week. Combined with the report that an Iraqi chemical weapons expert says that Iraqi WMDs were exported to Syria (NY Times story today 4/21) this put Assad on the hot seat. He will be under pressure by the US to crack down on Hizbollah and Hamas. While those terror groups will put pressure on Syria to do something to weaken the US hold on Iraq. Somethings going to give!!
 
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appleciderus    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/21/2003 6:08:14 PM
The Jr. Dictator is damned from within if he acceeds to US demands, damned from without if he doesn't. I think he'll be assinated before the first of June.
 
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Kalashnikov    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/21/2003 7:01:06 PM
Only if he caves into US demands. The United States is unlikely to risk world suspicion to mount an assassination against Assadh.
 
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Final Historian    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/21/2003 7:08:45 PM
I think that economic strangulation would be enough to convince Assad to reconsider his stance vis-a-vis Israel and terror. Although I must also agree that him being Assassinated by June isn't impossible. It has enough of a probability that we should plan for that contingency.
 
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appleciderus    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/22/2003 7:20:02 AM
Why doesn't the US thank him for his assistance..sit back..and see what happens?
 
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Kalashnikov    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/22/2003 8:27:28 AM
Because they feel that Assadh will continue his support of fundamentalist Islamists. Islam is deeply rooted within Mid Eastern politics, therefore Assadh would perhaps continue the jihad against America covertly lest he feel he is disgracing his religion. And if he stops opposition of Israel or support of fundamentalist operations, he may fall victim to his own people and be assassinated similarly to how Egypt's president was over Israel.
 
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Spent Case    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/22/2003 11:56:15 AM
Economic pressure would probably be enough. Over the years, Syria has had more experience being spanked by a western-style army (i.e. Israel). The exposure of the dubious Arab loyalties to baathist type dictatorships should have brought some lessons home.
 
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Kalashnikov    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/22/2003 12:24:31 PM
Syria's government isen't a Ba'athist type government. Saddam's regime was basically Stalinism minus communism. Syria is a military dictatorship. I know the differance sounds trivial, but its there. And economic sanctions are already being applied to Syria (I think).
 
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Spent Case    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/22/2003 12:49:09 PM
I had always thought they were, in theory, the same -- apart from the personalities involved. Baathist is simply a pan-Arab socialism. How would these compare to Khadafi's flavor of government?
 
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Final Historian    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/22/2003 2:25:29 PM
Both Syria and Iraq were Bathist dictatorships. Essentially a Pan-Arab National Socialist party, secular as well.
 
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Kalashnikov    RE:Big Trouble From Syria ??   4/22/2003 3:22:37 PM
Well, socialism is and of itself rather secular. Communism takes this to an extreme (atheism), yet aside the point. With regards to Qadhafi's Libya, it is unique to a degree. It is essentially a non-secular socialist nation (officially an Islamic Socialist Republic, the only one in the world) which has most aspects of a Socialist nation only that the laws are taken from Shari'a, the Islamic code of law. It is still, however, a dictatorship similar to the one once found in Iraq and still found in Syria. There is still a profound differance between Qadhafi and Assadh's regimes and Hussein's. Saddam Hussein is a much more irrational, self-glorifying figure. Scattered throughout every town and city were pictures and portraits of him, even statues. He attacked Kuwait because he owed debt to them which he could not pay because of a foolish war with Iran over privelages to the important Shatt al-Arab waterway, through which quite alot of oil passes through. The Syrian and Libyan regimes tend to be a bit more cautious and aware of their actions, trying to balance them. for instance, Qadhafi has payed cash and spent alot of work to heal over wounds it caused to itself by planning and executing the bombing of an airliner. Has Qadhafi seen the err of his ways? Certainly not. He is simply trying to gain favour in the West to avoid conflict, as Syria almost certainly will do shortly, as long as it dosen't required them to half their fundamentalist/Islamist sponsoring, something which would outrage the extremists of the nation.
 
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