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Subject: Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!
Roman    10/3/2003 7:36:34 PM
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[quote]
What now of the Saudi/US pact?

by Al Venter

Three recent events are likely to have a significant effect on future relations between Washington and Riyadh. The first was a spate of attacks on USA nationals living in Saudi Arabia. That was followed by the final withdrawal of the last US serviceman from the Kingdom and finally, the news late September that Saudi Arabia has embarked on a strategic review that includes acquiring nuclear weapons.

According to a Saudi spokesman, increased volatility in the Middle East, which includes the recent US invasion of Iraq and escalating unrest in Israel, have made a 'security reassessment' imperative. The fact that the Saudi government is prepared to contemplate the nuclear option is of profound significance to the West.

David Albright, head of the Washington strategic think-tank, the Institute for Science and International Security, said that he doubted whether the Saudis would try to build a nuclear bomb. Instead, he speculated that although Riyadh "might attempt to buy something nuclear... I do not seriously believe that anyone would sell it a nuclear weapon".

What is clear is that Saudi/US relations are presently being subjected to intense scrutiny in the US media, much of it initiated by the 12 May bombings linked to Al-Qaeda dissidents.

The present debate is centred on three fundamental issues: whether the Saudi government is doing all it can to counter terrorism, the extent of infiltration into elements of the Saudi hierarchy by Al-Qaeda and to what extent influential Saudi citizens were involved in the events of 11 September.

This was revealed in classified sections of a congressional report on the terrorist attacks that was later leaked to the media. The claim has been made that some Saudi citizens - possibly Saudi intelligence agents - had links with some of the 11 September hijackers.

That said, there have been watershed changes in Saudi security since a spate of Al-Qaeda-led attacks on expatriate and Saudi targets in and around Riyadh last May. US President George W Bush declared the event a wake-up call for the Saudi royal family.

For his part, Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal explained that Al-Qaeda has made a bad tactical error. Instead of the revolutionary effect that it had planned for, he said that the movement has succeeded only "in angering and uniting Saudi Arabia in resisting and confronting the subversive work that they are doing". Interesting too is that much of this output is carefully couched within what both sides call the 'longtime strategic partnership' between Saudi Arabia and the USA, just as it was after the 1995 bombing of the US military mission in Riyadh and the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing.

However, at least one US intelligence official has declared that while the noises coming from Riyadh sound good, "it is far from clear that the problems of the US/Saudi partnership are amenable to tactical adjustments". He pointed to US law-enforcement officials being refused access to any of the family of the 15 Saudi hijackers involved in the 11 September attacks, even though the Saudis offered limited help in obtaining DNA samples from family members of some of those involved.

Washington has also conceded that, since May, the Saudis have broken up "six to eight" Al-Qaeda cells operating within the country, beginning with the shooting of Yousif Salih Fahad al-Ayeeri, the senior Al-Qaeda operative responsible for orchestrating the May attacks. Operating under the pseudonym of 'Swift Sword' he was gunned down in a Riyadh street as he tried to flee in his car.

Shortly afterwards, security officials uncovered three large arms caches of 20 tonnes of explosives and military equipment. The haul included grenades, automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades said to have been intended for another attack. More than 200 Al-Qaeda-linked 'dissidents' have since been arrested in a dragnet that also ensnared Ayeeri. According to Jamal Khashoggi, a former newspaper editor, now a senior adviser to the Saudi ambassador in London, the terrorists were clearly planning another big attack in the Kingdom.

It has since been disclosed by Prince Nayef, Saudi interior minister, that Al-Qaeda had established a string of military training camps on Saudi Arabian soil. Consequently, his security forces had raided a number of farms and safe houses throughout the kingdom in which 20 terrorist 'suspects' and a dozen Saudi police officers were killed in the fighting.
[/quote]

Oh my word! This is not at all what we need right now. I sincerely hope they make the decision not to acquire nuclear weapons, but unfortunately I am sceptical of their goodwill on this matter or of the fact that the US will be able to persuade them not to choose that route.
 
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Roman    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! - Roman   10/11/2003 3:31:06 PM
The worry is that the unstable regime in Saudi will collapse and these weapons will fall into the hands of Wahabi fanatics. In fact, elements of the regime are themselves hostile to the West...
 
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Sikman    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! - Roman   10/11/2003 5:16:31 PM
The only reason why Saudi would all of a sudden seek nuclear weapons is due to the fact that they are now expendable. As soon as Iraq is up and running the US will no longer need that back stabbing gas station that is Saudi Arabia. In a sense they will leave it to the Islamic radical dogs now that they don't need their oil. In fact thats what they are planning to do, so Saudi is trying in vain to survive. All they are ensuring is that they go out with a BANG!
 
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FJV    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! - Roman   10/17/2003 5:01:29 PM
If you're not worried enough then you could consider the possibilties of an economically collapsing Saudi Arabia armed with nukes. link
 
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capitalist72    Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report   10/21/2003 6:44:09 AM
link Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report October 21, 2003 14:50 IST Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have concluded a secret agreement on nuclear cooperation, reports UPI Editor-in-Chief Arnaud de Borchgrave. "It will be vehemently denied by both countries, but future events will confirm that Pakistan has agreed to provide KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] with the wherewithal for a nuclear deterrent," Borchgrave quotes an 'unimpeachable source' in Islamabad as saying. "In a lightning, hastily arranged, 26-hour 'state visit' in Islamabad, Crown Prince Abdullah Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, flew across the Arabian Sea with an entourage of 200, including Foreign Minister Prince Saud and several cabinet ministers. The pro-American Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan, who is next in line to succeed to the throne after Abdullah, was not part of the delegation. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf met Abdullah at the airport and saw him off Sunday night with a 21-gun salute," said Borchgrave In Washington, Mohammed Sadiq, Pakistan's deputy chief of mission, said the report about Pakistan and Saudi Arabia reaching agreement on nuclear cooperation was totally wrong. "This is against our policy," Sadiq told UPI. "Pakistan would never proliferate its nuclear technology. It's a very clear policy. This was not even discussed in the talks we held with the Saudis in Islamabad this week. It was not even on the agenda. It is out of the question." The CIA believes that Pakistan exported nuclear know-how to North Korea in exchange for missile technology. Last year, a Pakistani C-130 was spotted by a satellite loading North Korean missiles at Pyongyang airport. Pakistan said this was a straight purchase for cash and denied a nuclear quid pro quo. "Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia," the Pakistani source explained, "see a world that is moving from non-proliferation to proliferation of nuclear weapons," says Borchgrave. Pakistan, under the late dictator General Zia ul-Haq decided to pursue the nuclear option following India's first nuclear test in 1974. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is now estimated at between 35 and 60 weapons. "The Sunni Saudis have concluded that nothing will deter Shiite Iran from continuing its quest for nuclear weapons. Pakistan, on the other hand, is openly concerned about the recent armaments agreement between India, its nuclear rival, and Israel, a long-time nuclear power whose inventory is estimated at between 200 and 400 weapons. Iran and India, located on either side of Pakistan, have also signed a strategic agreement whose aim is regarded with suspicion in Islamabad," says Borchgrave. Pakistani Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali is scheduled to fly to Tehran later this week. To counter what Pakistani and Saudi leaders regard as a multiregional threats, they have decided quietly to move ahead with a two-way exchange -- free or cheap oil for nuclear know-how and expertise, Borchgrave concludes.
 
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Final Historian    RE:Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report   10/21/2003 11:43:18 AM
Debka is also reporting this as well, so there may be something to it. Their accuracy leaves a lot to be desired of course, but the more sources reporting this, the greater the likelihood.
 
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capitalist72    RE:Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report   10/21/2003 12:25:50 PM
I agree - it has always been rumoured that a lot of Pakistan's nuclear program has been Saudi funded in any case. As far as the translation of the term "transfer of nuclear know-how" is concerned, the Saudis don't even have the know-how to bake a cake if you give them the recipe, so it must mean tranfer of nuclear weapons.
 
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Roman    RE:Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report   10/21/2003 5:50:29 PM
This is nothing if not bad news. I hope it turns out to be untrue, but hope is not the best guide. None of the mainstream news (BBC, CNN, Fox News) seem to have reported this, though, so it may not be true.
 
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swhitebull    RE:Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report   10/21/2003 7:42:22 PM
From Debka: Pakistan will deploy nuclear missiles and warheads at Saudi bases under military-nuclear accord signed in Islamabad by Crown prince Abdullah. DEBKAfile adds: Pakistani security umbrella will replace US troop presence withdrawn from kingdom this summer. Deal flatly defies Bush warning to Abdullah this year not to deploy nuclear weapons on Saudi soil. Most Saudi armed forces take part in major air-naval exercise begun last week in northern part of kingdom near Jordanian, Israeli borders. Air maneuvers including F-15 fighter jets directed by E-3A AWACs from King Faisal Air Base at Tabuk. Air defense systems and fast attack naval craft participating. swhitebull
 
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Roman    RE:Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report   10/21/2003 11:42:00 PM
This is what I was worried would happen once the US made it clear to Saudi that they are now dispensible.
 
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Roman    Can someone give me a link to Debka?   10/21/2003 11:43:28 PM
It seems to have interesting reports - I would like to check it out. Thanks!
 
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swhitebull    RE:Can someone give me a link to Debka?   10/22/2003 9:42:03 AM
www.debka.com
 
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sentinel28a    Not good   10/22/2003 11:31:37 AM
As someone mentioned before...hasn't Riyadh at least taken into account what will happen if they overtly deploy nuclear-armed missiles? I think the Heyl Ha'avir might have something to say, and as good as the Saudi Air Force is, I question their ability to stop the Israelis. At the very least, I would expect the Mossad to set up an "accident" somewhere along the line. The Saudi royal family is not stupid--short-sighted, maybe, but not stupid. Their reasons for acquiring a nuke may have less to do with us and more to do with Iran and Osama. I'm sure there are few things that the radical Iranian clerics and Osama would like to do more than to blow Riyadh off the map so that they can "restore" Mecca and Medina to the "true sons of Islam"--that is, them.
 
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Roman    RE:Can someone give me a link to Debka?   10/22/2003 1:01:38 PM
Thanks... BTW: Washington Times has now also reported the story, so it is becoming increasingly credible. Globalsecurity.org, also seems to believe that Saudis have the capability to put any nuclear know how to weapons production fast.
 
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Final Historian    RE:Can someone give me a link to Debka?   10/22/2003 1:23:15 PM
I think that this may indicate that Iran is indeed close to acquiring nuclear weapons, and that the Fraudis want to have some Paki nukes to use as deterrence in case Iran should make any moves against them. They traded missiles in the past, and can do it again.
 
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Roman    RE:Can someone give me a link to Debka?   10/22/2003 7:06:56 PM
You are probably right Final Historian, but I think the Saudis also want nukes as a deterrent against the US. Many in the US now regard Saudi Arabia as dispensible and a semi-hostile regime, so Saudis might well feel that they are somewhere on the US list of countries to invade and seek to deter it through acquisition of nukes.
 
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