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Subject: Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!
Roman    10/3/2003 7:36:34 PM
www. [quote] What now of the Saudi/US pact? by Al Venter Three recent events are likely to have a significant effect on future relations between Washington and Riyadh. The first was a spate of attacks on USA nationals living in Saudi Arabia. That was followed by the final withdrawal of the last US serviceman from the Kingdom and finally, the news late September that Saudi Arabia has embarked on a strategic review that includes acquiring nuclear weapons. According to a Saudi spokesman, increased volatility in the Middle East, which includes the recent US invasion of Iraq and escalating unrest in Israel, have made a 'security reassessment' imperative. The fact that the Saudi government is prepared to contemplate the nuclear option is of profound significance to the West. David Albright, head of the Washington strategic think-tank, the Institute for Science and International Security, said that he doubted whether the Saudis would try to build a nuclear bomb. Instead, he speculated that although Riyadh "might attempt to buy something nuclear... I do not seriously believe that anyone would sell it a nuclear weapon". What is clear is that Saudi/US relations are presently being subjected to intense scrutiny in the US media, much of it initiated by the 12 May bombings linked to Al-Qaeda dissidents. The present debate is centred on three fundamental issues: whether the Saudi government is doing all it can to counter terrorism, the extent of infiltration into elements of the Saudi hierarchy by Al-Qaeda and to what extent influential Saudi citizens were involved in the events of 11 September. This was revealed in classified sections of a congressional report on the terrorist attacks that was later leaked to the media. The claim has been made that some Saudi citizens - possibly Saudi intelligence agents - had links with some of the 11 September hijackers. That said, there have been watershed changes in Saudi security since a spate of Al-Qaeda-led attacks on expatriate and Saudi targets in and around Riyadh last May. US President George W Bush declared the event a wake-up call for the Saudi royal family. For his part, Saudi foreign minister Saud al-Faisal explained that Al-Qaeda has made a bad tactical error. Instead of the revolutionary effect that it had planned for, he said that the movement has succeeded only "in angering and uniting Saudi Arabia in resisting and confronting the subversive work that they are doing". Interesting too is that much of this output is carefully couched within what both sides call the 'longtime strategic partnership' between Saudi Arabia and the USA, just as it was after the 1995 bombing of the US military mission in Riyadh and the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing. However, at least one US intelligence official has declared that while the noises coming from Riyadh sound good, "it is far from clear that the problems of the US/Saudi partnership are amenable to tactical adjustments". He pointed to US law-enforcement officials being refused access to any of the family of the 15 Saudi hijackers involved in the 11 September attacks, even though the Saudis offered limited help in obtaining DNA samples from family members of some of those involved. Washington has also conceded that, since May, the Saudis have broken up "six to eight" Al-Qaeda cells operating within the country, beginning with the shooting of Yousif Salih Fahad al-Ayeeri, the senior Al-Qaeda operative responsible for orchestrating the May attacks. Operating under the pseudonym of 'Swift Sword' he was gunned down in a Riyadh street as he tried to flee in his car. Shortly afterwards, security officials uncovered three large arms caches of 20 tonnes of explosives and military equipment. The haul included grenades, automatic weapons and rocket-propelled grenades said to have been intended for another attack. More than 200 Al-Qaeda-linked 'dissidents' have since been arrested in a dragnet that also ensnared Ayeeri. According to Jamal Khashoggi, a former newspaper editor, now a senior adviser to the Saudi ambassador in London, the terrorists were clearly planning another big attack in the Kingdom. It has since been disclosed by Prince Nayef, Saudi interior minister, that Al-Qaeda had established a string of military training camps on Saudi Arabian soil. Consequently, his security forces had raided a number of farms and safe houses throughout the kingdom in which 20 terrorist 'suspects' and a dozen Saudi police officers were killed in the fighting. [/quote] Oh my word! This is not at all what we need right now. I sincerely hope they make the decision not to acquire nuclear weapons, but unfortunately I am sceptical of their goodwill on this matter or of the fact that the US will be able to persuade them not to choose that route.
 
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SGTObvious    Considering American fears at the moment...   10/7/2003 7:20:53 AM
(Well founded fears, I should add, being Paranoid isn't half as bad as being Accurately Paranoid) Saudi Arabian attempts to joint the nuclear club could result in their "going nuclear" in a way they don't intend.
 
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bsl    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!   10/9/2003 6:19:03 PM
"highly unlikely"? See, this is why it's important to try to look at the Big Picture, and not take issues one by one, on a purely ad hoc basis. Does anyone remember a little business from a couple of years back concerning an "Axis of Evil"? That got a lot of riducule from the ignorant, the fatuous and the ill-willed, but it's a key insight into American strategic thinking, these days, and it's important to try to understand what it means. Briefly, the concept is that there are several nations working, hard, to develop nuclear weapons. North Korea and Iran are two, right now. The North Koreans, especially, are very close, if, indeed, they haven't already built one or two working nuclear devices. Now, the possession of nuclear weapons is not, in itself, necessarily a grave threat to anyone. America has never been worried about the British nuclear capability. Neither does America fear attack by Israel. What matters is not only possession of these weapons, but what is or is likely to be done with them. North Korea, especially, is quite clearly a threat not only locally, on the Korean peninsual, or, even, directly to America by the threat of North Korean attack. What is the worst threat is that, having nuclear weapons, NK will go into the nuclear bomb export business. And, the first people on line at the sale window ARE people whom we have good reason to believe will use those weapons, and probably against either us or our allies. Similarly, in the long run, we have serious concern that Pakistan might be willing to provide nuclear weapons to allies in the Islamic world. Especially to allies who may be able to pay large amounts of hard currency, both on and off the books. And, in this catagory falls the Saudis. IOW, while we don't have much need to fear that the Saudis will, *in the short term*, develop the ability to build their own nuclear weapons, there is much more reason to worry that they will be able to ***buy*** nuclear weapons from one or another country. These events are not isolated. What's going on in the world, right now, is connected and part, at least, of American policy stems from the perception of the connections.
 
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Crusader    Some claim they already have them....   10/10/2003 1:20:21 PM
 
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Roman    RE:Some claim they already have them....   10/10/2003 2:36:32 PM
If true, that would be quite worrying. All they would need is nukes to place on the missiles and I am sure Pakistan may be willing to provide them with some in exchange for a large infusion of cash into Pakistan nuclear programme.
 
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OPFOR    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! - Roman   10/11/2003 3:02:49 AM
What's the worry? Affraid the'll outgun you? :-D
 
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Roman    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! - Roman   10/11/2003 3:31:06 PM
The worry is that the unstable regime in Saudi will collapse and these weapons will fall into the hands of Wahabi fanatics. In fact, elements of the regime are themselves hostile to the West...
 
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Sikman    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! - Roman   10/11/2003 5:16:31 PM
The only reason why Saudi would all of a sudden seek nuclear weapons is due to the fact that they are now expendable. As soon as Iraq is up and running the US will no longer need that back stabbing gas station that is Saudi Arabia. In a sense they will leave it to the Islamic radical dogs now that they don't need their oil. In fact thats what they are planning to do, so Saudi is trying in vain to survive. All they are ensuring is that they go out with a BANG!
 
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FJV    RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! - Roman   10/17/2003 5:01:29 PM
If you're not worried enough then you could consider the possibilties of an economically collapsing Saudi Arabia armed with nukes. http://www.twf.org/News/Y1999/1101-SaudiOil.html
 
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capitalist72    Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report   10/21/2003 6:44:09 AM
http://in.rediff.com/news/2003/oct/21nuke.htm Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report October 21, 2003 14:50 IST Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have concluded a secret agreement on nuclear cooperation, reports UPI Editor-in-Chief Arnaud de Borchgrave. "It will be vehemently denied by both countries, but future events will confirm that Pakistan has agreed to provide KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] with the wherewithal for a nuclear deterrent," Borchgrave quotes an 'unimpeachable source' in Islamabad as saying. "In a lightning, hastily arranged, 26-hour 'state visit' in Islamabad, Crown Prince Abdullah Abdulaziz, Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, flew across the Arabian Sea with an entourage of 200, including Foreign Minister Prince Saud and several cabinet ministers. The pro-American Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan, who is next in line to succeed to the throne after Abdullah, was not part of the delegation. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf met Abdullah at the airport and saw him off Sunday night with a 21-gun salute," said Borchgrave In Washington, Mohammed Sadiq, Pakistan's deputy chief of mission, said the report about Pakistan and Saudi Arabia reaching agreement on nuclear cooperation was totally wrong. "This is against our policy," Sadiq told UPI. "Pakistan would never proliferate its nuclear technology. It's a very clear policy. This was not even discussed in the talks we held with the Saudis in Islamabad this week. It was not even on the agenda. It is out of the question." The CIA believes that Pakistan exported nuclear know-how to North Korea in exchange for missile technology. Last year, a Pakistani C-130 was spotted by a satellite loading North Korean missiles at Pyongyang airport. Pakistan said this was a straight purchase for cash and denied a nuclear quid pro quo. "Both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia," the Pakistani source explained, "see a world that is moving from non-proliferation to proliferation of nuclear weapons," says Borchgrave. Pakistan, under the late dictator General Zia ul-Haq decided to pursue the nuclear option following India's first nuclear test in 1974. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is now estimated at between 35 and 60 weapons. "The Sunni Saudis have concluded that nothing will deter Shiite Iran from continuing its quest for nuclear weapons. Pakistan, on the other hand, is openly concerned about the recent armaments agreement between India, its nuclear rival, and Israel, a long-time nuclear power whose inventory is estimated at between 200 and 400 weapons. Iran and India, located on either side of Pakistan, have also signed a strategic agreement whose aim is regarded with suspicion in Islamabad," says Borchgrave. Pakistani Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali is scheduled to fly to Tehran later this week. To counter what Pakistani and Saudi leaders regard as a multiregional threats, they have decided quietly to move ahead with a two-way exchange -- free or cheap oil for nuclear know-how and expertise, Borchgrave concludes.
 
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Final Historian    RE:Pak-Saudi N-pact signed: Report   10/21/2003 11:43:18 AM
Debka is also reporting this as well, so there may be something to it. Their accuracy leaves a lot to be desired of course, but the more sources reporting this, the greater the likelihood.
 
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