Saudi Arabia may go nuclear!

Email Me When A New Comment Is Made
Show Only Poster Name and Title Sort in Reverse Order Posted

Pages: 1 2 3 NEXT

Roman Link to the story 10/3/2003 7:42:07 PM

I forgot to include the link to the stoey, so here it is: link

Quote Reply

FJV RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! 10/4/2003 4:01:44 AM

Sound a lot like they are playing media games. Trying to raise a scare to get us to do their bidding. Or to raise media pressure against America (feeding the anti war protests etc.) I suppose that when the US leaves Saudi Arabia they will still leave their intelligence networks in place (US would be stupid not to have an intel network in Saudi Arabia). Any attempts at aquiring nukes could then be detected and bombed (covertly or overtly).

Quote Reply

bsl RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! 10/4/2003 8:28:55 PM

"Trying to raise a scare to get us to do their bidding. Or to raise media pressure against America (feeding the anti war protests etc.)" Is it? It doesn't sound like their traditional form of international policy. The Saudis have a history back practically to the beginning of avoiding anything which looks like direct confrontations with powerful states. More so if they don't have powerful backing. The preferred Saudi style involves professions of friendship, bribes, both direct and indirect to people they feel can help them. If they work against a powerful country, they tend to do so, quietly, behind the scenes, and through other hands. If a direct threat to go nuclear came out of the Saudi leadership, I'd say, at the very least, they were on the verge of panic, and I'd question the stability of anyone involved in the threat. For one thing, the Saudis have used America as their principle backer in the world since the WW2 era. For another, in the present context, a statement that they were going nuclear would not be a simple barb directed at Washington, it would be something close to a dare to Washington to stop them, and this when America has conquered Afghanistan, then Iraq. And, Iraq precisely on a claim of a *threat* from Iraqi WMD programs. IOW, it would tend to look, a lot, like a dare to Washington to do to Riyadh what they've just done to Baghdad. At first glance, anyway, this is an exceedingly stupid idea. There is something here we're not seeing, assuming the story is correct.

Quote Reply

Final Historian RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! 10/4/2003 10:24:51 PM

I agree with you on this one BSL. Something fishy here. Especially because we would never let the Fraudis get their hands on nukes. The potentional for Al Qaeda grabbing them is too high.

Quote Reply

Ex-pat2 RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! 10/5/2003 11:08:50 AM

Given the huge financial support to Al Queda (some would say protection money) - one would assume that at least the same amount of Saudi money found its way into the development of Pakistan's "Islamic Bomb". Any doubt the Sauds can get one that they've already paid for? And while the high-powered friends of the Sauds in the highest levels of our government may still trust the House of Saud...... Well I can only ask, where is the Shah of Iran today? Speaking of which - with Iran about to get their own nukes the Wahabbis want theirs as well. A comforting thought indeed, as we continue searching for "fools gold" in Iraq.

Quote Reply

Roman It does make some sense on their part... 10/5/2003 5:00:56 PM

Think about it - they have just witnessed an invasion of Iraq and they are aware that there is general distrust of Saudi Arabia in the West. In fact, many people claim that one of the reasons for invading Iraq is to enable the USA to break with the Saudi Regime. At this moment, though, with US troops embroiled in Iraq, USA is in no position to invade anyone for a while. This is particularly the case, since no WMD has been found in Iraq and the war was highly unpopular the world over and even significantly unpopular in the US. Bush will not contemplate another war at least until after the election in 2004. This gives Saudi's a window of opportunity. If they acquire nukes now, nobody will dare attack them later - see North Korea. This is very logical and if I were a leader of a state that is unpopular in the USA, I would also hurry to acquire nuclear weapons as quickly as possible, especially after witnessing what happened in Iraq and comparing it to US treatment of North Korea.

Quote Reply

FJV Some thoughts. 10/6/2003 11:12:42 AM

I may not be an expert on Saudi Arabia (understatement of the year). But somehow I get the same feeling with these statements as with Saudi peace proposals for Israel. Also I don't think it would be smart to react too alarmed at Saudi statements. If Saudi Arabia or other nations find out the USA can be manipulated just by saying you want nukes, then we will be hearing such statements left and right. All this doesn't mean that you don't silently prepare for the possibility that the Saudi's really are aquiring nukes. That's why a good intell network in Saudi Arabia is so important, maybe even more important than the one in Iraq. Could also be that the Saudis are trying to find answers for facing the new situation in the Middle East and this is just one of the possibilities they consider. I think a good option for keeping the Saudis in power would be for them to allow a small part of the country to open up to Western influences, while keeping the majority of the country (and the power base) firmly under Saudi control. PS. If they acquire nukes now, nobody will dare attack them later. Unless all the nukes can be taken out if the US strikes with nukes first. For complete nuclear deterrence you would need a second strike capability. It all depends on the strength weakness, oppertunity threat analysis the US makes.

Quote Reply

Phoenix Rising RE:It does make some sense on their part... 10/6/2003 11:13:58 AM

The problem is that, Western antipathy to the American action in Iraq does not correspond to increased sympathy for nuclear proliferation. Quite the contrary, one of the reasons cited by European academics (they do have a few) for opposing the war in Iraq was that it would drive proliferation, something which we all oppose. Therefore, the NPT is still an important document to Europe, America, and other Western powers (Japan, ROK, Australia, etc.). Just because Germany doesn't like us at the moment doesn't mean that they're all for DPRK or anyone else acquiring nuclear weapons. Proliferation would still have consequences, and Western law enforcement and intelligence agencies are still cooperating regarding nonproliferation efforts, even as their leaders butt heads in public. The everyday agents in the CIA, BND, MI6, etc. are not so different from one another, and generally find ways to do their jobs regardless of the political mudslinging going on on camera. This is important because it's unlikely that Saudi Arabia has the expertise necessary to build an indigenous weapon; ergo, they would be forced to pursue such aims externally, where they'd be vulnerable to discovery and interdiction. Furthermore, if you think that SA's image in the US is bad now, think of the consequences if they should attempt such a move and fail--if nuclear materials were discovered by Mossad or the CIA en route to SA. That would be *bad* for them, unequivocally. There's also the Israeli angle. America may not be in a position to launch a preemptive strike to halt Saudi acquisition of nuclear weapons, but the IDF is an altogether different matter; indeed, they might feel compelled to try even if they were *not* in a good position to launch such an attack, because the matter is of such grave importance to them. They've obviously shown a willingness to strike within the borders of other nations if they believe their national security to be in jeopardy. It's hard to imagine that they would not perceive a nuclear Saudi Arabia to be such a threat. Yes, Saudi Arabia would love to go nuclear. If North Korea were to build a bomb and attempt to sell it, it wouldn't surprise me if some clandestine arm of the Saudi government were one of the bidders (both to acquire a weapon and prevent any anti-royalist factions, which are equally unscrupulous and quite wealthy, from acquiring one). But it's unlikely that they can build one indigenously, and given the calculating and risk-averse nature of the regime, it's unlikely that they would try to assemble a clandestine program using smuggled parts because of the risk of discovery and the likely consequences of such discovery. --Phoenix Rising

Quote Reply

Ex-pat2 RE:It does make some sense on their part... 10/6/2003 11:45:42 AM

I do, I honestly do, try to read through most of the pseudo-intellectual wrappings on many of the posts on this forum in order to get the jest of what cognitive point the poster is trying make. In this case, are we all suppose to "assumme" the problem is Saudi Arabia would even contemplate building a nuke from scratch? Jeeze, they have bought and paid for any nukes they may want many times over - the questions are, does the Saud family want the responsibility / will Pakistan give up a few "already ripe" nukes for all the money Saudi Arabia has pumped into their country - and even their nuclear program? I doubt the House of Saud needs the headache - nukes do no good for a corrupt regime collapsing from within. And right now I doubt the Army General heading up Pakistan would release one (needs all he has as a deterrent to India). However, what if the Islamic radicals in Pakistan ever get the upper hand over the army generals, and the also Wahabbis get another horse to ride in Saudi Arabia other than the Sauds? Either of those scenarios may have been a big if, BEFORE 9/11, but now it should be a possibility to address - rather than assuming Saudi Arabia could be thwarted (their own ineptitude or the all-wise-and-knowing-CIA-who-failed-to-see-9/11, notwitstanding) in any atttempt to "home cook" it's own nuclear program. Hell, the Sauds can't even pump their own oil - it still has to import the technology and technicians to do even that.

Quote Reply

bsl RE:It does make some sense on their part... 10/6/2003 10:23:57 PM

1) The connection of a Saudi nuclear program to an Iranian one is shrewd. I have no idea if it's true. I repeat, let's all take a breath and ask of the initial reports are true. But, if Iran ever *does* get a working bomb, then there will certainly be pressure from inside Arabia to acquire one, based on Sunni-Shi'a rivalry, if nothing else. 2)Countries rarely make important decisions on their own policies based on how what they do will seem to other countries. If the Saudis come to feel that a nuclear capability is essential to them, fear of the reaction of the American public will probably not stop them from trying to get it.

Quote Reply

SGTObvious Considering American fears at the moment... 10/7/2003 7:20:53 AM

(Well founded fears, I should add, being Paranoid isn't half as bad as being Accurately Paranoid) Saudi Arabian attempts to joint the nuclear club could result in their "going nuclear" in a way they don't intend.

Quote Reply

bsl RE:Saudi Arabia may go nuclear! 10/9/2003 6:19:03 PM

"highly unlikely"? See, this is why it's important to try to look at the Big Picture, and not take issues one by one, on a purely ad hoc basis. Does anyone remember a little business from a couple of years back concerning an "Axis of Evil"? That got a lot of riducule from the ignorant, the fatuous and the ill-willed, but it's a key insight into American strategic thinking, these days, and it's important to try to understand what it means. Briefly, the concept is that there are several nations working, hard, to develop nuclear weapons. North Korea and Iran are two, right now. The North Koreans, especially, are very close, if, indeed, they haven't already built one or two working nuclear devices. Now, the possession of nuclear weapons is not, in itself, necessarily a grave threat to anyone. America has never been worried about the British nuclear capability. Neither does America fear attack by Israel. What matters is not only possession of these weapons, but what is or is likely to be done with them. North Korea, especially, is quite clearly a threat not only locally, on the Korean peninsual, or, even, directly to America by the threat of North Korean attack. What is the worst threat is that, having nuclear weapons, NK will go into the nuclear bomb export business. And, the first people on line at the sale window ARE people whom we have good reason to believe will use those weapons, and probably against either us or our allies. Similarly, in the long run, we have serious concern that Pakistan might be willing to provide nuclear weapons to allies in the Islamic world. Especially to allies who may be able to pay large amounts of hard currency, both on and off the books. And, in this catagory falls the Saudis. IOW, while we don't have much need to fear that the Saudis will, *in the short term*, develop the ability to build their own nuclear weapons, there is much more reason to worry that they will be able to ***buy*** nuclear weapons from one or another country. These events are not isolated. What's going on in the world, right now, is connected and part, at least, of American policy stems from the perception of the connections.

Quote Reply

Crusader Some claim they already have them.... 10/10/2003 1:20:21 PM

link

Quote Reply

Roman RE:Some claim they already have them.... 10/10/2003 2:36:32 PM

If true, that would be quite worrying. All they would need is nukes to place on the missiles and I am sure Pakistan may be willing to provide them with some in exchange for a large infusion of cash into Pakistan nuclear programme.

	News As History - November 24, 2009
	Home News How to Make War Wars Around the World Austin Bay's On Point Dirty Little Secrets Features Al Nofi's CIC Prediction Market Wargames Measure of Respect On War and Warfare Videos Photos Jokes Community Military Discussion Boards Military Jokes Military Photos Military Book Reviews Military Movie Reviews Military Links Wargame Store StrategyPage Subscribe Login Feedback About Us Search Account Manager Advertise With Us