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Subject: Taiwan Goes Fast And Long
SYSOP    1/30/2013 5:44:18 AM
 
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TonoFonseca    I'm happy   1/30/2013 11:58:15 AM
This is good news.  
 
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Slim Pickinz       1/30/2013 1:48:32 PM
"These ships and the land bases for cruise missiles will be prime targets for over a 1,400 Chinese ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan"
 
I've heard quite a few number quoted on how many ballistic missiles the ChiComms have aimed at Taiwan, ranging from 600 to 1500. Does anyone have a solid estimate on the count, backed up by a decent source?
 
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Belisarius1234       1/30/2013 1:57:59 PM
 
Data is from 2005. If they added 100 a year?
 
That puts the current barrage threat at ~ 1400 shots. The 2005 analysis is still fairly good. Just double the numbers.
  
B.
 
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Skylark    China's billiion-dollar parade float   1/30/2013 2:58:25 PM
 In the absence of an effective submarine force, deploying high-speed carrier killer missiles on small, relatively cheap and stealthy corvettes is a good move for Taiwan.  The development of an effective carrier air-arm is the key to China's strategy to bully their neighbors into submission by threatening to blockade nations like Taiwan outside of China's land-based air-umbrella.  But the idea that a small, cheap warship could potentially take out the pride of the Chinese navy effectively pulls the fangs out of that strategy; at least until more carriers can be built some time in the future to reduce the percentage loss of a carrier.  (Which is currently standing at 100%.) In short; the threat from Taiwan's high speed missile, coupled with their small, stealth ship has morphed the Laioning from a real threat to the Taiwanese navy and (by extension) Taiwan, to nothing more than an overly expensive parade float.  The threat of loss is one of the reasons key naval assets, like the Yamato and Musashi spent much of WWII in harbor, and prevented Argentina from deploying their lone carrier against the British during the Falklands war.  Losing a major naval asset is a big deal to nations at war, because major units, like carriers carry the aura of national pride about them.  The loss of HMS Hood in WWII was deeply troubling to the British government and the navy, and only the sinking of Bismark could assuage that wound.  The loss of Bismark, in turn, spelled the end of the German surface fleet, underlining the folly of deploying such a high-value asset in the first place.  If China lost the Laioning to a barrage of cheap missiles from a 500 ton corvette, it would be a major slap in the face to Chinese pride, and appearance is clearly a big deal to the folks in Bejing.  This does not mean that China won't use their new carrier to throw their weight around with impoverished nations like the Philippines, but Taiwan has managed to push the potential cost of conquest much higher.  The only question now is whether or not China is willing to pay that price.

 
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