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Subject: Underestimating the Enemy?
displacedjim    5/29/2004 7:29:30 PM
Does anyone else here find this as annoying as I do? I have this barely controllable urge to shout when I see responses to someone's argument that are along the lines of, "Don't underestimate your opponent," or, "You don't understand the other side's point-of-view," without citing the counterveilling facts/assumptions to back that up. In like vein is the assertion, "What about ______ (fill in with the latest fad idea or weapon system which hasn't even been prototyped yet, not to mention gone through the entire development and acquisition process, much less operationally fielded), I hear that'll make your system obsolete." Well, maybe in 20 years you'll be right--and maybe in 20 years we'll have moved on to our own next generation that will put us back out front again.

It's not underestimation when you've analyzed the enemy and your assessment is that you can take him out, or the system isn't a threat, or that here's the countermeasure, or whatever. If you see a hole in the analysis, point it out. Until then, that's the assessment. If your assessment based on the same data is different, okay, then it's different. That doesn't mean the other guy must be underestimating the enemy, it's just that he estimates, or esteems, them differently. Intelligence analysis is often a subjective artform rather than a hard science.

Does anyone underestimate me, er, ah, I mean, disagree with me?

Displacedjim
 
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dudley    RE:Underestimating the Enemy?   5/29/2004 8:40:47 PM
theres also something called a gut feeling.as in iraq i think the bush team definately underestimated the ability of saddams fayadeen to organize after the war was over.jim i think if one does underestimate an opponent one must try to fix it so its not likely to happen again.intel and knowledge about a situation or an opponent is clearly as important as your striking force.just my opinion.
 
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gf0012-aust    Underestimating the Enemy?   5/29/2004 8:48:20 PM
What about.... (sorry, I almost succumbed then) The key is that as a poster, you (the co-contributors) by joing the forum have made a statement of intent in co-operation (in a communicative sense) and participation. As a poster, everyone wants to be a contributor at some level - it gets back to the isssue of an individuals worth. - maybe self worth, maybe perceived worth. I'd argue that sometimes comments are made more in the spirit of recognition rather than for quality of contribution. It's why some wax lyrica;, nonsensical, dismissive, ebullient etc etc.... I know that I will sometimes become a "grenadier" because I get sick of arguments based on patriotism at the expense of substance... Sometimes the "buts" are verbal "butts". ;) You're also assuming that because you have logically stepped through the issue before making comment, that others do as well. Caveat Emptor
 
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Voidsinger    RE:Underestimating the Enemy?   5/30/2004 12:35:16 AM
I get this horrible feeling that they never underestimated the enemy. The real problem I see with many of these situations is the apparent expectation that the enemy will choose to play on the same playing field you'd like to play on..
 
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gf0012-aust    RE:Underestimating the Enemy?   5/30/2004 12:51:30 AM
The assumption is that the enemy will always behave as you wargamed them.
 
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Nichevo    RE:Underestimating the Enemy?   5/30/2004 12:57:30 AM
Is it too horrible to say that we never learn except by doing? Let's say that, like Sen. Dole revering Sen. Thurmond and his indomitable good health in old age, we followed France around on the world stage. That when it ate a banana, we ate a banana. What would we actually learn? Who would gain and lose from such an exchange? I bet the French would gain lots of needed data on how to conduct war in cities. I think that in the concrete banlieues where they have penned up their urban migrant populations, there will, sooner than their friends could wish, be more opportunity to learn how the sophistique arrange such matters. Presumably not as we are doing it, bien sur.
 
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displacedjim    RE:Underestimating the Enemy?   5/30/2004 3:38:17 AM
Wow, those were all interesting comments--although I admit, Nichevo, that I couldn't quite keep up with yours. You guys are right, it is possible to underestimate, and the post-war Iraq situation certainly seems a good example. I guess I was just speaking from my own wounded pride. It seems underestimation is only demonstratable in the past tense, as in when you can be shown to have placed improper emphasis on some defining characteristic, and so the actual results turned out different from your estimate. What doesn't seem appropriate to me is to assert "underestimation" in a discussion of a present or future scenario just because a differing conclusion is reached from the same data, without showing why or at least where you disagree in the analysis. Well, it's way past my bedtime, and maybe I'm just rambling on a bit. Displacedjim
 
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dudley    RE:Underestimating the Enemy?   5/30/2004 3:48:00 AM
what a bunch of bs,the previous posts.reminds me of liberal lawyers talkin.GET A ROPE!!!
 
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