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Subject: Strange And Unexpected Alliances
SYSOP    7/7/2015 5:33:01 AM
 
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trenchsol       7/7/2015 12:25:30 PM
Speaking of strange alliances, it is not just that Hamas helps IS in Egypt, but Muslim Brotherhood seems to be involved, too.
 
Hamas depends on Iran, and Iran declares itself as hostile to IS. So, either Hamas is going to be 'disciplined' or there is another 'strange alliance'. For example, Iran declares itself hostile to Taliban, even fought a battle against them back in 1998. However, it seems that Iran is actually helping Taliban.
 
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Yimmy       7/7/2015 7:46:38 PM
I'm not sure that Hamas depend upon Iran.  It's quite easy to make a fundamental mistake if not gloss over the nuance of politics in the Middle East, but Hamas are Sunni, and Iran is majority Shiite.  Hezbollah are Shiite - in Lebanon.
 
Iran doesn't like the Taliban - they very nearly invaded Afghanistan at one point.  However, Iran has supported elements of the insurgency in Afghanistan, such as with regard those territories and development projects which impact the flow of the Helmandi river.
 
But, you can't think of the Middle East by the paradigm of traditional Westphalian European states.  There are different agencies operating in Iran (as with republican guard ans conventional military), and different factions and 'tiers' of fighters in Afghanistan, from your hardcore Taliban shadow-government led insurgent, to you 'accidental guerillas', to your drug dealers, to your localised warlord et al....
 
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Nate Dog    Yimmy   7/7/2015 9:54:28 PM
The fact the Shite Iran has been helping Sunni Hammas for decades has been an interesting reflection of the rabbid anti-israeli sentiment prevalent in the region. It was always sighted as an unusual setup, but Iran stated they were happy to fund anyone hurting Israel.
There have been tensions. Hammas publicly supported the Syrian uprising, which pissed Iranian leadership off no end, to the extent that the several million per month Hammas used to receive were cut off for a few years, and only resorted after Hammas's last was with Israel in August 2014, aid is now back in full flow.
 
Otherwise you'd be correct. We don't see Shite helping Sunni out.
 
As to the Druze, without sounding too flakey, this is Israel's chance to show the kind of M.E. country it chooses to be.
The moral right was obvious when the Yazidi were being slaughtered in Iraq, but way too far to intervene.
Should the Druze come under serious attack, we'll see if Israel actually does the 'moral imperative' and stand for those whom can't stand for themselves. Western Syria is definitely Israel's backyard. Time to shine.
 
 
 
 
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trenchsol       7/8/2015 8:02:10 AM
Hamas is receiving military equipment, cash and, probably, other forms of aid from Iran. That is the fact. Since Hamas doesn't seem to have surplus of those, it is rational to assume that Hamas does depend on Iran and Iranian aid.
 
I agree, there are no solid, monolith political alliances in Middle East. That was the point of my post. I tried to say that Iran would enter any kind of temporary or permanent alliance that serves its, either long term, or short term interests.

Iranians are Shia, and Shia are minority of Muslims. I doubt that it is realistic to expect majority of Sunni to convert to Shia in near future. Therefore Iran must try to find allies among Sunnis, otherwise they can forget their expansionist plans. So far they had some success with Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and, apparently, Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Recently discovered Iranian spy network in  Egypt had its members recruited from Muslim Brotherhood ranks.

I am not saying that Iranians are aiding Sunnis out of kindness in their hearts, but because they have interest in it. It is more like 'enemy of my enemy is my ally as long as I need it'. Sunnis are fractured. Assisting weaker factions against stronger ones makes Sunnis, as a whole, weaker.
 
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Yimmy       7/8/2015 10:03:14 AM
Yeh, I don't disagree with either of you as such.  But, I would question how much Hamas 'depends' upon Iran.  And, I would question Iran being 'expansionist'.
 
I think it is more a matter of 'my enemy's enemy', and spheres of influence and power.  It wouldn't surprise me if two different agencies in Iran were operating towards opposite ends, dependent on their own priorities and self-interest.
 
With regard Israel and intervention - I think the problem is one in creating more enemies than friends in the region, through the popular anti-Israeli narrative which becomes perpetuated.
 
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Nate Dog    With friends like these,   7/8/2015 11:42:43 AM
The M.E. is politically speaking the most volatile region on earth, outside of a tribally fractured Africa, but call it amongst civilised(ish) nations.
From 1948 till now,
Egypt was in an Alliance with Syria, actually merged into one country briefly (across a mediteranean/israeli divide) for a few years, concurrently warred on their neighbour, broke their alliance, became persona non grata to one another (peace with Israel), renewed ties (arab spring) and broke them off again (support for Syrian Rebels by Sunni Egyptian govt ).
The point I'm trying to make is that no countries in the M.E. have retained the same allies for more than a few decades at a time. Israel has on and off been in friendly relations with Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon(kind of), yet all are malleable. 
Supporting industrious minorities that are doing well for themselves already (Kurds, Druze) may well be the only new friends to be made in an increasingly fracturing M.E. Any new pan-Sunni country that may form of this will be no friend of Israel, not in the foreseeable future, if ever. Maybe the Shite, eventually, maybe. Meantime, take what you can get.
 
As to forces within Iran pulling in different directions, you're very likely right. Iran is an ancient Bureaucracy with lots of disparate power centres. Currently the Mosque is one of them, as is its revolutionary Guard, but so is the Parliament, and what passes for a civil law system. 
 
Nothing is isolated. Could very well be multiple causes acting concurrently to shape current observed chaos.
 
 
 
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avatar3    Observation   7/8/2015 11:45:38 AM
The problem is not them but us. This is the way they have done business with each other for thousands of years, We are the ones who drew the lines on the maps dividing tribes into different countries based on British or French or Turkish areas of influence. We are the ones who recognized pigmy sized entities as nations and armed them and their hired guns accordingly. We signed treaties of defense with Mafia like families that chop off limbs, keep females as chattels, own slaves and won't allow any of the freedoms we value. We have treated our best allies, Egypt and Israel like dirt and wasted thousand of lives expanding the borders of the Iranian Terrorists. Need it be pointed out that Iran/Persia has been an enemy of the West since before the time of the Greek City States?  What we see now is a dam of pent up of tribal, territorial and religious insanity that will have to run its course. The best thing the USA can do is support Egypt and Israel and keep out of the way of the rest. 
 
 
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trenchsol       7/8/2015 1:18:18 PM
@Yimmy
Iran supplies weapons to Hamas. Could Hamas find another sponsors ? Probably. Would it supply weapons ? Maybe. How much and what ? The most capable missiles of Hamas came from Iran. Domestically manufactured missiles are Iranian technology, too. Does Hamas depend on Iran ? I'd say, at he moment, yes.
 
Iranian expansionist plans ? Perhaps 'imperialist' would be a better word. My English is not as good as I'd like it to be.
 
 
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trenchsol       7/9/2015 7:56:52 AM
In fact, alliance between Hamas and IS is not so unexpected. If IS takes control of certain parts of Sinai peninsula, then it will control the smuggling tunnel endpoints on that territory. If there is some sort of understanding between Hamas and IS, IS will allow traffic through the tunnels, which Egypt forbids at the moment. 
 
IS won't stop the traffic through the tunnels unless there is an open conflict between two of them, which is not the case at the moment.
 
 
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Hotspur666       7/14/2015 8:25:53 PM
Well, dividing th middle east  was an excellent idea...these people are toxic snakes
(using babies as target as we speak in Iraq)
And it is their nature...everywhere in Islam, it is brothers against brothers,
brothers against the fater, the family versus the clan, the clans versus the towns,
the towns vs the states, permanent war between states...
 
While the muslims are killing each others...we the infidels can have a life... 
 
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