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Subject: Temporary Peace Is Better Than None At All
SYSOP    2/16/2013 5:04:53 AM
 
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Skylark       2/16/2013 5:59:23 PM
I find it difficult to believe that Isreal is unhappy with the West for not sending arms to the rebels in Syria.  If the rebels win, odds are that the new government in Syria will be more Islamic in nature, and (by extension) even more hostile to Israel, so arming them with modern weapons and seeing the Assad government fall is not necessarily in Israel's best interest.  Israeli planners have enough issues in dealing with budding Islamofascist dictatorships forming in Egypt and Libya.  I doubt if they would be all that interested in a third forming in the ruins of what used to be Syria.  If anything, Israel would be better served if Syria stalemated into a war between the cities (controlled by the government) and the countryside, (controlled by the rebels) with both sides being funded with cash from Russia, Iran and the Sunni-Muslim dictatorships.  With their attention diverted, Israel could focus on quietly supporting Lebanese Christians who will never get a better chance to free themselves from Syrian and Palestinian oppression.  If I were Israel, I would do everything possible to keep Syria isolated, divided and perpetually at war with itself.
 
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WarNerd       2/17/2013 5:58:24 AM
I find it difficult to believe that Isreal is unhappy with the West for not sending arms to the rebels in Syria.  If the rebels win, odds are that the new government in Syria will be more Islamic in nature, and (by extension) even more hostile to Israel, so arming them with modern weapons and seeing the Assad government fall is not necessarily in Israel's best interest.  Israeli planners have enough issues in dealing with budding Islamofascist dictatorships forming in Egypt and Libya.  I doubt if they would be all that interested in a third forming in the ruins of what used to be Syria.  If anything, Israel would be better served if Syria stalemated into a war between the cities (controlled by the government) and the countryside, (controlled by the rebels) with both sides being funded with cash from Russia, Iran and the Sunni-Muslim dictatorships.  With their attention diverted, Israel could focus on quietly supporting Lebanese Christians who will never get a better chance to free themselves from Syrian and Palestinian oppression.  If I were Israel, I would do everything possible to keep Syria isolated, divided and perpetually at war with itself.
1. The rebels are not monolithic. When Assad is overthrown the country will fragment dozens of little uncooperative statelets, none large enough to pose a significant threat to Israel.
2. The rebels are, thanks to their support for Assad, universally opposed to Iran and Hezbollah. So the supply pipeline from Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon will be cut.
3. The Syrian chemical weapons will be destroyed by international intervention if necessary. No one wants those weapons loose in the world.
4. Hezbollah is too well armed and trained for the other factions in Lebanon to attack at this time. However, Israel is likely to mount an operation to eliminate Hezbollah’s troops and ammunition dumps in southern Lebanon as soon as Syria collapses, which will leave Hezbollah vulnerable.
 
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