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Subject: The Showdown In Syria
SYSOP    7/31/2012 5:36:46 AM
 
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Chris       7/31/2012 10:29:27 AM
Where I am hardly a fan of Israel in many respects - they are a real democracy - and to my knowledge they have never conducted suicide attacks (they have conducted some very risky missions).  @import url http://www.strategypage.com/CuteSoft_Client/CuteEditor/Load.ashx?type=style&file=SyntaxHighlighter.css);" target="_blank">link
 
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KevininHouston    Why does Israel Not help Overthrown Young Assad   7/31/2012 10:53:44 PM
I could understand why Israel does  nothing while Egypt is in the throws of its domestic unrest. Egypt is the center of gravity in the Arab world, an US ally (for how much longer is an open question), and has a huge population.
 
Syria is another matter entirely: it has a much smaller population, is not a US/Western ally, has supported anti-Israel groups for decades and is a client-state of the Iranian mullah-ocracy. Why not take this opportunity to destroy the heavy weapons, air power, and NBC program of that odious state. This may buy Israel a chance at some goodwill from the insurgency as well as mitigating the threat of the next Syrian government should it be actively hostile to Israel as well as undermining Iranian interference in the region. 
 
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Chris       8/1/2012 10:36:26 AM
I could understand why Israel does  nothing while Egypt is in the throws of its domestic unrest. Egypt is the center of gravity in the Arab world, an US ally (for how much longer is an open question), and has a huge population.
 
Syria is another matter entirely: it has a much smaller population, is not a US/Western ally, has supported anti-Israel groups for decades and is a client-state of the Iranian mullah-ocracy. Why not take this opportunity to destroy the heavy weapons, air power, and NBC program of that odious state. This may buy Israel a chance at some goodwill from the insurgency as well as mitigating the threat of the next Syrian government should it be actively hostile to Israel as well as undermining Iranian interference in the region. 
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Israel is not exactly loved by the arabs - and goodwill from Israel would not likely include invading Syria and/or attacking it directly from an arab perspective.
 
Israel is hopefully having a lot of heart-to-heart chats with Turkey on this topic, and will only work through them before taking (and or coordinating) any actions, lest they make an already unstable situation far worse. 
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Reactive       8/1/2012 2:44:39 PM
Nothing, I repeat NOTHING Israel does in the mid-east will ever change the basic religious hatred directed at them, all Israeli involvement would do would be to have the exact opposite effect that it was intended to - frankly Israel is best staying out of it unless it is forced to intervene by escalation or chemical weapons - same applies to everyone else too - in Syria especially there seems to be very little understanding of what levels of support Assad actually and the constituent elements of the rebellion - while the idea of weakening Iran's power base (and Hezbollah's backer) by aiding Assad's overthrow is obviously attractive there is a greater degree of uncertainty even than in Libya/Egypt of what will replace him and a far bigger issue of having to intervene in a fairly major way to secure WMD's.
 
A terrible situation all-around, frankly.
 
 
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WarNerd       8/2/2012 4:02:34 AM
I could understand why Israel does  nothing while Egypt is in the throws of its domestic unrest. Egypt is the center of gravity in the Arab world, an US ally (for how much longer is an open question), and has a huge population.
 
Syria is another matter entirely: it has a much smaller population, is not a US/Western ally, has supported anti-Israel groups for decades and is a client-state of the Iranian mullah-ocracy. Why not take this opportunity to destroy the heavy weapons, air power, and NBC program of that odious state. This may buy Israel a chance at some goodwill from the insurgency as well as mitigating the threat of the next Syrian government should it be actively hostile to Israel as well as undermining Iranian interference in the region. 
1) Syria’s population is only 1/4 Egypt’s, but it is still 3x Israel’s.
2) The population hates Israel more than Assad, and will make common cause with him if Israel attacks ending the revolution.
 As you can see, this is a wicked problem for Israel. They have to get in and destroy or neutralize the weapons before they can be captured and diverted to al-Qaeda, but not so early that they leave Assad on the throne.
 
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KevininHouston    If not for credit from people of Syria, still in Israel's interest.   8/2/2012 7:05:38 AM
I agree that due to Arab hostility to Israel means little long term good will would be generated by an Israeli attack on Assad's military. However, it still seems to make sense to destroy as much as possible of Syria's heavy weapons, air power, and NBC capability. I feel that a post-Assad populist regime is likely to be extremely hostile to Israel if for no other reason to rally popular support for itself.
 
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Reactive       8/3/2012 9:36:04 AM
I agree that due to Arab hostility to Israel means little long term good will would be generated by an Israeli attack on Assad's military. However, it still seems to make sense to destroy as much as possible of Syria's heavy weapons, air power, and NBC capability. I feel that a post-Assad populist regime is likely to be extremely hostile to Israel if for no other reason to rally popular support for itself.
 
The problem (if Assad collapses) is a major one - it's no minor task to take over, secure and remove hundreds of tonnes of Chemical ordnance - bombing the sites wouldn't be adequate to ensure the destruction of all weapons and would also release the toxins, depending on their proximity to built-up areas it could be a disaster. So, a large boots-on-the-ground military operation and it'll probably be undertaken by the US. 
 
A post Assad regime might very well be as you describe, but it will most-certainly also be hostile to Hezbollah, which also makes it far harder or impossible for Iran to support them as it has previously, not that Hezbollah will be their main concern; if Assad falls the next mass uprising in the region will probably be in Iran. 
 
 
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KevininHouston    Populist governmnet does NOT mean peaceful.   8/3/2012 12:15:14 PM
The so-called Arab Spring does not yet appear to be bearing either democracy or peace to the Middle Eastern Arab nations yet. There is a type of government which is illiberal but populist. It is clear to me that in the Arab world such governments will turn to anti-Israel sentiment to solidify their positions in power. The danger of such a course of action in seeking legitimacy, is that the most radical faction can use it to destroy their more moderate opposition. Such a radical faction may actually be forced by its own "logic" to actually launch an attack on Israel. If Syria were to follow this pattern, it still seems that cold-blooded logic suggests that Israel interests would be served by destroying as much of the Syria's military potential as possible as soon as possible.
 
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