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Subject: Article on Agricultural Techniques
Hugo    7/21/2008 2:16:51 PM
I am somewhat fascinated with drip irrigation's use in water poor climates - perhaps because I am originally from one myself. Anyway if anyone else shares my interest, I thought this article from the NYT might be of interest. Israel is the world leader in this technology and apparently has the most efficient agricultural sector in terms of output per water use. If I ever make it out there I'd like to visit your farms.


Mideast Facing Choice Between Crops and Water
By ANDREW MARTIN
CAIRO ? Global food shortages have placed the Middle East and North Africa in a quandary, as they are forced to choose between growing more crops to feed an expanding population or preserving their already scant supply of water.

For decades nations in this region have drained aquifers, sucked the salt from seawater and diverted the mighty Nile to make the deserts bloom. But those projects were so costly and used so much water that it remained far more practical to import food than to produce it. Today, some countries import 90 percent or more of their staples.

Now, the worldwide food crisis is making many countries in this politically volatile region rethink that math.

The population of the region has more than quadrupled since 1950, to 364 million, and is expected to reach nearly 600 million by 2050. By that time, the amount of fresh water available for each person, already scarce, will be cut in half, and declining resources could inflame political tensions further.

?The countries of the region are caught between the hammer of rising food prices and the anvil of steadily declining water availability per capita,? Alan R. Richards, a professor of economics and environmental studies at the University of California, Santa Cruz, said via e-mail. ?There is no simple solution.?

Losing confidence in world markets, these nations are turning anew to expensive schemes to maintain their food supply.

Djibouti is growing rice in solar-powered greenhouses, fed by groundwater and cooled with seawater, in a project that produces what the World Bank economist Ruslan Yemtsov calls ?probably the most expensive rice on earth.?

Several oil-rich nations, including Saudi Arabia, have started searching for farmland in fertile but politically unstable countries like Pakistan and Sudan, with the goal of growing crops to be shipped home.

?These countries have the land and the water,? said Hassan S. Sharaf Al Hussaini, an official in Bahrain?s agriculture ministry. ?We have the money.?

In Egypt, where a shortage of subsidized bread led to rioting in April, government officials say they are looking into growing wheat on two million acres straddling the border with Sudan.

Economists and development experts say that nutritional self-sufficiency in this part of the world presents challenges that are not easily overcome. Saudi Arabia tapped aquifers to become self-sufficient in wheat production in the 1980s. By the early 1990s, the kingdom had become a major exporter. This year, however, the Saudis said they would phase out the program because it used too much water.

?You can bring in money and water and you can make the desert green until either the water runs out or the money,? said Elie Elhadj, a Syrian-born author who wrote his Ph.D. dissertation on the topic.

Egypt, too, has for decades dreamed of converting huge swaths of desert into lush farmland. The most ambitious of these projects is in Toshka, a Sahara Desert oasis in a scorched lunar landscape of sand and rock outcroppings.

When the Toshka farm was started in 1997, the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, compared its ambitions to building the pyramids, involving roughly 500,000 acres of farmland and tens of thousands of residents. But no one has moved there, and only 30,000 acres or so have been planted.

The farm?s manager, Mohamed Nagi Mohamed, says the Sahara is perfect for farming, as long as there is plenty of fertilizer and water. For one thing, the bugs cannot handle the summer heat, so pesticides are not needed.

?You can grow anything on this land,? he said, showing off fields of alfalfa and rows of tomatoes and grapes, shielded from the sun by gauzy white netting. ?It?s a very nice project, but it needs a lot of money.?

Mr. Mubarak calls his country?s growing population an ?urgent? problem that has exacerbated the food crisis. The population grows about 1.7 percent annually, considerably slower than a generation ago but still fast enough that it is on pace to double by 2050.

Adding 1.3 million Egyptians each year to the 77 million squeezed into an inhabited area roughly the size of Taiwan is a daunting prospect for a country in which 20 percent of citizens already live in poverty.

One recent morning in the Cairo slum of Imbaba, people crammed in front of a weathered green bakery shack for their daily rations of subsidized bread, a pita-like loaf called baladi that sells for less than a penny, so cheap that some Egyptians feed it to their livestock.

The bakery shares the end of a dead-end street with a mountain of garbage, 25 feet by 5 feet, that looks as if it is moving because so many flies swarm over it.

?Most people are really suffering, but what can they do?? asked Mohamed Faruk, a 38-year-old grocery worker who moonlights as a bus inspector, as he carried nine loaves of baladi in newspaper.

Awatef Mahmud, a 53-year-old mother of five who sat on a nearby stoop waiting for her bread to cool, said higher prices had led to dietary changes for her family. ?Instead of buying one kilo of meat every week, we buy a half a kilo,? she said. ?People used to buy pasta to make for their kids. But now that it?s four and a half pounds,? she said, referring to the currency, ?they give them bread instead.?

Economists say that rather than seeking to become self-sufficient with food, countries in this region should grow crops for which they have a competitive advantage, like produce or flowers, which do not require much water and can be exported for top dollar.

For example, Doron Ovits, a confident 39-year-old with sunglasses pushed over his forehead and a deep tan, runs a 150-acre tomato and pepper empire in the Negev Desert of Israel. His plants, grown in greenhouses with elaborate trellises and then exported to Europe, are irrigated with treated sewer water that he says is so pure he has to add minerals back. The water is pumped through drip irrigation lines covered tightly with black plastic to prevent evaporation.

A pumping station outside each greenhouse is equipped with a computer that tracks how much water and fertilizer is used; Mr. Ovits keeps tabs from his desktop computer.

?With drip irrigation, you save money. It?s more precise,? he said. ?You can?t run it like a peasant, a farmer. You have to run it like a businessman.?

Israel is as obsessed with water as Mr. Ovits is. It was there, in the 1950s, that an engineer invented modern drip irrigation, which saves water and fertilizer by feeding it, drop by drop, to a plant?s roots. Since then, Israel has become the world?s leader in maximizing agricultural output per drop of water, and many believe that it serves as a viable model for other countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

Already, Tunisia has reinvigorated its agriculture sector by adopting some of the desert farming advances pioneered in Israel, and Egypt?s new desert farms now grow mostly water-sipping plants with drip irrigation.

The Israeli government strictly regulates how much water farmers can use and requires many of them to irrigate with treated sewer water, pumped to farms in purple pipes. It has also begun using a desalination plant to cleanse brackish water for irrigation.

?In the future, another 200 million cubic meters of marginal water are to be recycled, in addition to promoting the establishment of desalination plants,? Shalom Simhon, Israel?s agriculture minister, wrote via e-mail.

Still, four years of drought have created what Mr. Simhon calls ?a deep water crisis,? forcing the country to cut farmers? quotas.

Egypt, at least, has the Nile. Under a 1959 treaty, the country is entitled to a disproportionate share of the river?s water, a point that rankles some of its neighbors. It has built canals to bring Nile water to the Sinai Desert, to desert lands between Cairo and Alexandria and to the vast emptiness of Toshka.

For Saad Nassar, a top adviser in Egypt?s ministry of agriculture and land reclamation, the country has little choice but to try to make the desert bloom, even in unlikely places like Toshka, which it says will eventually succeed: all of Egypt?s farms and population are now crowded onto just 4 percent of its land.

?We don?t have the luxury of choosing this or that,? he said. ?We have to work on every acre that is cultivatable.?

Egypt is establishing an estimated 200,000 acres of farmland in the desert each year, even as it loses 60,000 acres of its best farmland to urbanization, said Richard Tutwiler, director of the Desert Development Center at the American University in Cairo. ?It?s sand,? he said, referring to the reclaimed desert land. ?It?s not the world?s most fertile soil.?

As Cairo?s population has grown ? to an estimated 12 million today ? hastily constructed apartment buildings have sprouted among the fields. ?They sow apartment buildings instead of wheat,? said Gideon Kruseman, a Dutch agriculture economist working with the government to improve farming there.

For more than 5,000 years, farmers have worked the land along the Nile and in the Nile Delta, the lotus-shaped plain north of Cairo where centuries of accumulated silt have produced a deep, rich layer of topsoil. They have endured drought, flood, locust and pestilence.

Now the scourge is development. For farmers like Magdy Abdel-Rahman, the new buildings not only ruin the rural tranquillity of his ancient fields, with the constant hammering and commotion, but they also reduce his yields.

?The shade is not good for the plants,? said Mr. Abdel-Rahman, who farms corn and clover on a half-acre lot 20 miles from downtown Cairo.

Five miles farther out, Talaat Mohamed?s three acres of sweet potatoes are squeezed between four-, five- and seven-story apartment buildings like a jigsaw puzzle. A building recently went up a dozen feet from his field, with steel bars jutting from the foundation and piles of gravel alongside.

Mr. Mohamed, 60, routinely turns down eager land speculators because, he says, he loves working outdoors. But he complains about all the time spent removing urban detritus from his field, which on this day included a maroon brassiere, soda cans, food wrappers, wads of indistinguishable plastic, a Signal toothpaste box and a black flip-flop.

?The Egyptians invented farming,? he said, peering despairingly at a landscape of electric wires and buildings, traffic and trash. ?And this is what it has become.?

 
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Shirrush    Not exacly a flying pig moment...   7/24/2008 7:58:29 AM
...But it's good to see that sometimes the NYT has something meaningful to say.
Anyhoo, thanks for the article.
The bottom line is that, yes, we've got work to do. The war after the next war will be a struggle for water, its generals will be scientists and engineers, its heroes will be geologists and inventors, it's weapons will be money, technology and yellow things, and, hopefully, the winners will be all of us.
In the meantime, Islam is on the move again. In their script, food and water must be taken from those that have it, forwards, and not managed and conserved. Fact.
I'm ready. My shovel and my microscope are right next to where my gun is. 

 
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Hugo       7/27/2008 11:27:26 AM
I agree with you, successul nations, particulalry in your region of the world, will master the use, allocation and maximization of water resources.  You seem to be doing well. 
 
Perhaps Egypt will start a war with its neighbours - potentially islamic (Sudan) - and then its government can find an alternative scapegoat.  
 
Meanwhile the Arabs don't seem to have understood that infinite population growth in a region with seriously finite resources might lead to instability - in which case Israel will probably be used as a whipping boy for the radicals.  Whatever happens I don't like the long-term outlook of that region.

 
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battar    Fruitful   7/27/2008 3:21:33 PM
It isn't just the Arabs who don't understand the problems of infinte population growth. The Bible says "Be fruitful, and multiply, and replenish the earth". I once asked a religious scholar, what happens when the earth is replenished and full up? After all, this commandment is an exponential curve. He didn't have an answer. (hardly surprising).
 
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Shirrush    Pop Dynamics 101   7/27/2008 4:39:22 PM

Battar, there's no such thing as infinite population growth. The exponential Malthusian curve as never been observed in Nature, and most animal populations' growth goes along a logistic curve, in which the upper horizontal asymptote, K, is the environment's carrying capacity.
What's special about human populations though, is the fact that they can, and will, affect K.
We could be able to jack it up some if we stop, for a minute, to build suburbs on prime farming land and start getting serious about capturing runoff rainwater, while the Arabs are generally pulling it down, as exemplified by the loss of arable land to destructive agricultural practices and poor land management in Mesopotamia and Egypt, and the overgrazing and deforestation prevalent wherever Islam holds sway.
 
There's absolutely no reason, or even any decency, to tell people how many offspring they're allowed to have.
The Rabbis are right. Having children is everyone's right and duty.
China's appalling one-child policy is a demographic disaster, and the skewness of the Chinese population's sex ratio will have cataclysmic consequences, such as the end of Peace in Asia, and a World-wide recession.

 
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battar    No chocolate cookies   7/28/2008 2:56:59 PM
Shirrush,
              I may be mistaken, but I believe that Malthus predicted that populations will grow until everyone is living at subsitence level.  That means no chocolate chip cookies for you or me. I like chocolate chip cookies. China wouldn't be a demographic success story if they had no familiy planning policy, either. I'm not saying people should be restricted in the number of children they want to fill the house with. I myself am the seventh child (and last) in my family. I am saying that people should be educated to make responsible choices about their own families, and politicians who call family planning education "racism" and "anti-semitism" should be discouraged from holding any public position of responsibility. Teaching young Moslems and orthodox Jews that "it is gods will that they should have as many children as possible" is irresponsible and ensures (relative) misery for the next generation. Teaching youth that looking out for their children is their own, and not god's, responsibility is not politically correct nowadays. 
Where do you get all this knowledge about the enviroment from? Are you a biologist? Or do you just read "Scientific American" or "New Scientist"?
 
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Hugo       7/28/2008 6:16:44 PM
The Bible was also written in the day when many young children didn't survive to their first birthday. 
 
One can argue that it's immoral to restrict one's freedom to procreate (I would) but I think a solid argument can also be made that it's irresponsible to bring children into the world for which you have no means to provide for materially.  

 
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battar    Teach the children well   7/29/2008 2:47:22 PM
Well said, Hugo.
 
The ultra-orthodox community in Israel encourage their members to marry at an early age and raise large families, while at the same time refusing them access to any education which could ensure them a position where they could earn enough money to support their double-figure offspring. The rabbis tell the young students that "god will provide", then go and demand that the state fund child allowance from wage-earners taxes. Is it any wonder that they earn mighty little sympathy from those who pay the tax? The child allowance payment that the state gives to an unemployed father of 9 children is more than I earn in a full time job. (After tax). They are not doing themselves any favours. 
 
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jastayme3       7/29/2008 4:42:35 PM

Well said, Hugo.

 

The ultra-orthodox community in Israel encourage their members to marry at an early age and raise large families, while at the same time refusing them access to any education which could ensure them a position where they could earn enough money to support their double-figure offspring. The rabbis tell the young students that "god will provide", then go and demand that the state fund child allowance from wage-earners taxes. Is it any wonder that they earn mighty little sympathy from those who pay the tax? The child allowance payment that the state gives to an unemployed father of 9 children is more than I earn in a full time job. (After tax). They are not doing themselves any favours. 

Battar, 9 children is in eighteen years nine extra bullet attractors away from your son.

 
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jastayme3       7/29/2008 4:45:04 PM




Well said, Hugo.



 



The ultra-orthodox community in Israel encourage their members to marry at an early age and raise large families, while at the same time refusing them access to any education which could ensure them a position where they could earn enough money to support their double-figure offspring. The rabbis tell the young students that "god will provide", then go and demand that the state fund child allowance from wage-earners taxes. Is it any wonder that they earn mighty little sympathy from those who pay the tax? The child allowance payment that the state gives to an unemployed father of 9 children is more than I earn in a full time job. (After tax). They are not doing themselves any favours. 




Battar, 9 children is in eighteen years nine extra bullet attractors away from your son.




PS. And yes I know all about how Ultra-Orthadox are free from conscription. Which is probably regretable
as it makes Jews into dependants on their neighbors again. But that might change and in any case they can still
volunteer.
 
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battar    Prayer-shawls and uniforms   7/30/2008 3:01:37 PM
Jastayme,
                 I've been in the IDF. Neither I nor most of my fellow commanders would want ultra-orthodox yobs in our units. They won't mix socially, have funny ideas about what and when they will eat, they are generally clueless about everyday common knowledge becasue they don't watch television or read newspapers or listen to the radio and he brighter of the secular soldiers are always picking arguments with them over religious topics. This is based on my encounters with the few orthodox (not even ultra...) soldiers that I have met in uniform. The IDF top brass have admitted to the powers-that-be that they don't want to deal with the problems that conscripting orthodox soldiers would bring about. None of these religious children will be competing with my son for a job, either - their education doesn't provide them with any relevant skills. But they will be living off my sons' taxes.
 
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Hugo       7/30/2008 5:05:50 PM

Jastayme,

                 I've been in the IDF. Neither I nor most of my fellow commanders would want ultra-orthodox yobs in our units. They won't mix socially, have funny ideas about what and when they will eat, they are generally clueless about everyday common knowledge becasue they don't watch television or read newspapers or listen to the radio and he brighter of the secular soldiers are always picking arguments with them over religious topics. This is based on my encounters with the few orthodox (not even ultra...) soldiers that I have met in uniform. The IDF top brass have admitted to the powers-that-be that they don't want to deal with the problems that conscripting orthodox soldiers would bring about. None of these religious children will be competing with my son for a job, either - their education doesn't provide them with any relevant skills. But they will be living off my sons' taxes.

 
  That's actually a phenomenon common across welfare societies.  The socially and economically unproductive are encouraged to have children at the expense of the productive.  The productive as a result have fewer children because they have higher standards of what a child needs and no longer afford to meet that standard because of the costs of transfers to those with lower standards.  It's a societal Teufelskreis.

 
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