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Subject: Unreliable, Unpredictable And Asking For Help
SYSOP    3/3/2015 5:29:48 AM
 
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tteng       3/3/2015 1:36:01 PM
This is Iran's counter to Netanyahu's Capitol visit.
 
Iran is creating an impression in the Sunni-Arab's mind that: the US and Iran are both fighting the ISIS (which is a populist proxy Sunni-Arab army).  Hence, in the Sunni's mind- the US and Iran are together.
 
So, while the 'Israel factor' is a separating factor to stand apart the US and Iran; this 'ISIS factor' is a combining factor to push the US (unwilling as is) and Iran closer.
 
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WarNerd       3/3/2015 2:30:02 PM
Best result is the Tikrit attack turns into a debacle and Iran and the Shia militias are discredited.
 
Most likely result is that it becomes a stalemated bloodbath, with Shia militia attrocities generating more support for the ISIS.
 
Worst result is the Shia militia wins in Tikrit while causing mass attrocities.  Obama takes it as an excuse to pull out US support and is followed by the Coalition leaving Iran as the victor.  Iraq threatens to decend into continuous civil war and becomes another Syria until massive Iranian reinforcements arrive forcing the Sunni population to flee Iraq.
 
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tteng    what do we want?   3/3/2015 3:22:30 PM
It seems we, the US, is getting pulled by events on the ground, of not our will: the uninvited Israeli visit, and the un-US-initiated Tikrit campaign.
 
Clearly, Israel wants the US to be always on its side, and that we never normalize relationship with any credible Arab or Iranian polity.
 
And clearly, Iran wants the sanction removed, needs US presence to serve as shield from the Israelis, and stick to the Sunni-Arabs.
 
Both Israel and Iran need the US backing/presence, for different reasons.
 
(WN, your 'most likely scenario' will probably happen-  Iran/Shiite militia will 'win enough' to piss off more sunnis to raise hell somewhere else, and to keep the Americans occupied and stayed, while gradually splitting the US/Sunni relationship.)
 
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joe6pack       3/3/2015 3:59:06 PM
>combining factor to push the US (unwilling as is) and Iran closer.
 
I'm not so sure this is "entirely" correct.  I believe this administration (in particular) would dearly love to get some sort of accord with Iran (they have #&^& it up everywhere else.. Egypt, Russia, Libya.. heck, Poland, UK, Israel, Iraq, etc.. etc.. and would certainly like some sort of foreign policy "success" in the next two years.)
 
While there is certainly a reluctance in Congress.. I don't think it's the real problem.  The Iranians want a BIG win and are unwilling to settle for less (its possible, they may get it).   It makes a relationship tough, with meeting that start out with "Death to America" - "Death to Israel".. oh yeah.. and that nuclear weapons thing...
 
Other than getting the U.S. to drop sanctions, what does Iran (from a political standpoint) have to gain with a better relationship with "The Great Satan?".    I think patching things up with the U.S. is the absolute least thing they (Iranian leadership) desire..What would it gain them domestically?  
 
Dictatorship 101 is being able to blame someone else for your nation's problems... else the inhabitants might start blaming the people that are in charge.. revolutions start that way..
 
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tteng    joe   3/3/2015 4:42:23 PM
Iran needs more than sanction removal; it needs the US presence in the ME as a shield from Israel (for the time being)
 
If I were Netanyahu, the minute the US 'washes its hand' of the ME, I'm taking out all these nuke facilities in Iran.
 
(I don't pay too much mind on rhetoric, only life-and-death national security from each nation's optics)
 
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joe6pack    tteng   3/3/2015 4:55:26 PM
They don't seem willing to trade anything to get it. As for a shield from Israel? That's largely rhetoric and fantasy. Israel has limited to no access to Iran.. and Iran's proxies have easy access to Israel. Israel has nothing to gain from conflict with Iran.. while (refer to my dictator 101 comments) conflict with Israel is good for public consumption in Iran.. I'm interested in hearing where my assement is off
 
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tteng    Iraq and Syria nuke plant   3/3/2015 5:35:39 PM
Israel bombed both, and I don't believe Israel will ever allow it to be held 'hostage' by Iranian nuke, not even a 'hint' of it.  I don't know how Israel is going to do it- but it will find a way.  The US can't leave ME without de-nuke Iran; if it can't properly 'de-nuke and monitor in situ', then it can't leave (it seems- we are the 'hostage' here)
 
You know what the American problem is?  We never got our ass kicked, thus we don't know how Israel feel (its population is 8m, and 6m Jews died in WW2), we don't know how Japan feel (nuked once, and China is huffing and puffing), we don't know how China feel (almost died in WW2).
 
We don't feel visceral enough, even when view it thru their optics.
 
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Nate Dog    tteng   3/3/2015 5:43:03 PM
we americans? really?
Wow. You think people here actually buy that #### ?
Well, you're entertaining, if nothing else.
So, fantasy blaming Israel for the middle easts woes aside.

When i first saw this a few days back on the news, it was being reported largely like it is here, Iraqi army, supported by Shiia militia, Iranian artillery trains, without Air Support , mounting offensive on Tikrit.
I thought immediately, shit, blood bath. Shiiaa Sunni sectarianism is about to get a full force workout. This, this will end so badly, that it'll make the last 3 years of Syrian sectarian fighting look like a tip toe through the daisies. 
Conquering a city, no air support, minimum intel or surveillance, but bringing an artillery train with you… Oh my god. This is going to get so god damn nasty, in 4 months time, Tikrit will look like every city you see in Syria that's been fought over these last 4 something years. T.S. Elliots "the wasteland" comes to mind as an apt description.
 
Possible outcomes. A bloody repulse. Shiaa fail to take Tikrit and it drags into a bloody stalemate. Perennial street battles. Lasts years.
 
An unmitigated success. ISIL flees, or gets smashed. Shiaa move in, and as the prime minister of Iraq already announced, This is you last chance to change sides (that never happened) and now we have Shiaa rampaging through the streets, slaughtering everyone they see, a den of Sunni's. Huge blood bath.
 
Sunni tribes/ISIL bring the rain, cut off the attacking force and the Shiia attackers flee/are slaughtered. How terrible does this sound? This scenario is the one that is likely to be the least bloody. The one that involves the fewest civilians dying.
 
There are no decisive victories in these sectarian conflicts, only Phyric victories.
Are there any civil engineers that post here? Using Syria as an example, how many Billions of dollars of damage to infrastructure has been done in the last few years of conflict. Alleppo, Syria's 2nd largest city, is a complete ruin, a city of 3 million people i think. Everything decimated. Is the damage in the billions? Or is it hundreds of billions to re-build infrastructure and housing that developed over the last 2 centuries?
 
 
 
 
 
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tteng    Iraq and Syria nuke plant   3/3/2015 5:46:11 PM
Israel bombed both, and I don't believe Israel will ever allow it to be held 'hostage' by Iranian nuke, not even a 'hint' of it.  I don't know how Israel is going to do it- but it will find a way.  The US can't leave ME without de-nuke Iran; if it can't properly 'de-nuke and monitor in situ', then it can't leave (it seems- we are the 'hostage' here)
 
You know what the American problem is?  We never got our ass kicked, thus we don't know how Israel feel (its population is 8m, and 6m Jews died in WW2), we don't know how Japan feel (nuked once, and China is huffing and puffing), we don't know how China feel (almost died in WW2).
 
We don't feel visceral enough, even when view it thru their optics.
 
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tteng    Iraq and Syria nuke plant   3/3/2015 5:49:06 PM
Israel bombed both, and I don't believe Israel will ever allow it to be held 'hostage' by Iranian nuke, not even a 'hint' of it.  I don't know how Israel is going to do it- but it will find a way.  The US can't leave ME without de-nuke Iran; if it can't properly 'de-nuke and monitor in situ', then it can't leave (it seems- we are the 'hostage' here)
 
You know what the American problem is?  We never got our ass kicked, thus we don't know how Israel feel (its population is 8m, and 6m Jews died in WW2), we don't know how Japan feel (nuked once, and China is huffing and puffing), we don't know how China feel (almost died in WW2).
 
We don't feel visceral enough, even when view it thru their optics.
 
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