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Iraq Discussion Board
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Subject: Did something really change?
garotomaluco    11/20/2007 10:35:34 PM
Does anyone know if this surge is bringing down the insurgency? I mean if the coalition is cleaning iraq up or are the insurgents making a pause and reorganicing.
Is the surge disarming the insurgency in iraq or is the insurgency limiting its action by the greater number of troops?

Because casualties are falling doesn't inevitably mean things will remain quiet (if they can be considered quiet) when eventually some troops be recalled.

Something else: I keep reading about AQI but aren't there other, indigineous, insurgent organizations?
 
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sentinel28a       11/21/2007 5:49:26 AM
Attacks have dropped off precipitously and former areas of heavy insurgent activity are quiet.  So it's a combination of at least three of your four items: the Coalition is cleaning Iraq up, the surge is disarming the insurgency, and movement of insurgents is limited by the larger number of troops.
 
There's something like 150 known insurgent organizations, including AQI, but a lot of those have either disbanded, have stood down (like the Mahdi Army), or increasingly are working with us.  That doesn't mean they'll work with us forever, but it is a pretty good sign.  The two biggest threats were AQI and the Mahdis, but AQI looks like it's been broken, and the Mahdis seem to be heading in that direction as well, as Sadr has been marginalized. 
 
I still wouldn't be surprised to see a few more big and bloody attacks, especially as more American units start heading home, but if we can keep the trends going for another six months, we're going to be in rather good shape.
 
 
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FJV    Yes and no   11/21/2007 1:35:37 PM
The surge and the violence is only part of the whole thing.

One of the risks of losing in Iraq is pulling out too soon just because the violence has been dealt with. Without having solved  corruption and other issues in Iraq to a managable level, you only have a bit of temporary stability in my opinion.

It would be like letting Iraq fail in the long run.

 
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Mike From Brielle       11/27/2007 5:22:13 PM

 

I have been highly buoyed by the success of the SURGE which in all honesty I thought would take longer to reach the current levels of effectiveness.  This in part may be due to the fact that for many of the tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) used during the SURGE were never implemented in such a wide spread a manner as they had been during this counter insurgency action.  Some credit must also be given to some Theatre of operations happy coincidences but not as much credit as one gets the impression from the MSM. The Army and Marine Corps deserve a vigorous well done! Much of this good work had to be accomplished with their hands tied by people who thought they knew better on how to fight a war, IMHO.

 

I also believe that this is still essentially an intelligence war and that we must spare no effort to root out the core cadre of the insurgency lest they try to resurface like a weed.  I have always believed that these are the old members of Sadam?s Intelligence Infrastructure (SII) who went to ground after the fall of the old regime. I believe they are using what might be called a double blind control by which they do not directly interface with the insurgents who are doing the actual fighting but only facilitate these actions thru intermediaries (maybe even two levels of intermediaries). They facilitate mainly by orchestrating the insurgent attacks for maximum propaganda value and the raising and distribution of funds. Due to the plentiful local supply of munitions, logistics was not a problem for them until the SURGE occurred; we?ll see how they handle this problem shortly, if their able (these were not soldiers but spies).

 

This is not to say that the Iranians were not making their contribution to both sides of the chaos (just as the SII was) but they were not as familiar with the local human terrain nor did they have the resources in place (spies/ stooges/ goon squads/ lists of helpful thugs/ likely safe houses) as the old regime?s SII.

 
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ker       11/28/2007 5:17:21 PM
I hear some people saying that the success is political and the surge was millitairy so the surge was useless but luckly timed.  I disagree.  Timimg was very important.  The political progress, former hostials swiching to our side, could happen in an envirment where American commitment was evedent.  The surge was a demenstration of commitment.  A big fact on the ground that belayed the back ground noise of Henery the war is lost Reid and others. 
 
The surge was also a kind of triger event.  Lots of earlyer deals were in existance.  With the display of commitment and the knowlege that the anti-Iraq forces were going to have their hands full.  More posible suporters of the Iraq goverment in none goverment controled areas were willing to step up and openly suport the goverment.  Then once the party was started it was relitivly easy to get others to join. 
 
The insurgence still exists but it's oporational envirment is very different.  Symbilism can contribute to social and psycological change.  The expectation that American backstops will continue alows more people to place their bets with the goverment.  It becomes a self reinforcing loop.  As more people suport the goverment the risk of suporting the goverment goes down.  Risk of attacking the goverment goes up as fewer people activly attack the goverment.  As U.S. causualtys go from low war time levels towards peace time levels the chances that the U.S. forces will be tramaticly amputated from Iraq goes even lower.  That increases the ability of the population to safly help the goverment.  That lowers casualtys further because cowoporation leads to take downs of the insurgence. 
 
So now we need to set the ground work for ecconomic improvement that becomes posible when people can move around safly and property isn't randomly distroyed.  I think that Gramean Bank (Banglidess)  style micro loans and small energy projects could be very helpfull.  Spend 1% of what we put into big power plants in to a small factory that makes little wind turbine generators for faimly homes.  Jobs, light and a new look for the towns.
 
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PowerPointRanger    Iran in Iraq   11/29/2007 8:19:02 AM
Another contributer to the success of the Surge seems to be that Iran is pulling back from it's support of the insurgents.  It may be because they were losing too many people (some reports have more than 1,000 Iranian special forces in US custody), US saber rattling, or the economic pressures of sanctions.  More likely it was an admission that their support just wasn't working. 
 
Iraq is Iran's best hope for a major ally, being the only other Shiite dominated country in the world.  When it became clear the insurgents weren't going to win, Iran had to realize they were only antagonizing that one potential friend.
 
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jastayme3       12/29/2007 11:31:51 PM

Another contributer to the success of the Surge seems to be that Iran is pulling back from it's support of the insurgents.  It may be because they were losing too many people (some reports have more than 1,000 Iranian special forces in US custody), US saber rattling, or the economic pressures of sanctions.  More likely it was an admission that their support just wasn't working. 

 

Iraq is Iran's best hope for a major ally, being the only other Shiite dominated country in the world.  When it became clear the insurgents weren't going to win, Iran had to realize they were only antagonizing that one potential friend.

One might remember that in a despotic country special forces may have a significance more then the purely military. We may just have weakened the Regime's final guarantee.

 
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TrustButVerify       2/15/2008 10:46:51 AM
What I'd really like to see is some analysis of how the insurgents will fare once the surge is over. On one hand it seems almost a no-brainer to lay low and wait it out, and maybe this might have worked if not for the political work that's been done for the "awakening", et. al. Once U.S. troop strength declines to pre-surge levels, will the insurgency be able to regain the initiative?
 
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